EnergyTrend Battery Silver Member Report

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EnergyTrend Battery Silver Member Report January 2019 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

TrendForce 2010 2004 Display technologies, touchscreen solutions, LCD supply chain, end application/product markets (notebooks, tablets, TVs and monitors) Industry and market trends related to

2 TrendForce Display technologies, touchscreen solutions, LCD supply chain, end application/product markets (notebooks, tablets, TVs and monitors) Industry and market trends related to photovoltaics, lithium batteries, energy storage solutions, plug-in vehicles and other green energy products DRAM, NAND Flash, PCs, servers, mobile devices and smartphones 2007 LED supply chain (materials, equipment, chips, packages and end products), LED lighting market, micro-led and other application markets Covers structural trends of major technology industries in Greater China and other regional markets with special focus on semiconductors, optoelectronics, telecommunication services, IA and other emerging technologies TrendForce has grown significantly since its founding in After merging with Topology Research Institute (TRI) in 2015, TrendForce continues to expand into Greater China and takes on new research fields. Our network of bases allows us to keep up with the latest developments in the technology sector. As a highly authoritative and professional market intelligence agency, we help our customers to link up with industries, academic institutions and other important sources of opportunities and information. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 2

Lithium Battery Silver Member Report Outline Supply Market Trend Demand Market Trend 1Q Trend of Commodities and Battery Market 1. Long-term Trend for battery material 2.

Supply and demand of battery in IT market and its price change 3. Niche application (Medical Application) 2Q Trend of Commodities and Battery Market 1.

3 Lithium Battery Silver Member Report Outline Supply Market Trend Demand Market Trend 1Q Trend of Commodities and Battery Market 1. Long-term Trend for battery material 2. Policy update for Lithium Battery in China and new energy vehicle (LEV, xevs) Trend of Application Market 1. Demand of energy storage market 2. Supply and demand of battery in IT market and its price change 3. Niche application (Medical Application) 2Q Trend of Commodities and Battery Market 1. New formation battery- cathode material technology 2. Policy update for lithium battery in China and new energy vehicle (LEV, xevs) Trend of Application Market 1. Supply of energy storage market 2. Demand of xevs market 3. Supply and demand change of battery in IT market 4. Niche application (electrical bicycle) 3Q Trend of Commodities and Battery Market 1. New formation battery- anode and separator material technology 2. Policy update for lithium battery in China and new energy vehicle (LEV, xevs) Trend of Application Market 1. Battery reuse market development 2. Supply and demand change of battery in IT market 3. Niche application (power tool) 4Q Trend of Commodities and Battery Market 1. Analysis of solid state battery technology / supply chain overview of solid state battery technology 2. Policy update for lithium battery in China and new energy vehicle (LEV, xevs) Trend of Application Market 1. Analysis of new-type personal transporting vehicle market- LEV 2. Supply and demand change of battery in IT market 3. Niche application (handheld device) EnergyTrend Battery Silver Member Report Release Date: March / June / September / December Format: PDF / EXCEL Language: Traditional Chinese / English Price: USD 4,000 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 3

Lithium Battery Trend and Solution Duff Lu Senior Research Manager, Green Energy Division

5 Outline IT Application Battery cell price trend has become bumpy in 3Q18 Cylindrical battery supply has decreased Mixture material development has slowed down Materials and Capacity for Power Battery Cylindrical battery capacity has increased Solid-state battery will enter small production by 2020 Lithium battery material: LFP will gradually lose its advantage, Si-O will be introduced and wet processed separator will continue to develop Power Tools and Motorcycle Market Power tool brand market distribution Comparison of specifications of different types of batteries Lithium battery capacity and discharge specifications evolution Motorcycle will crowd out car demand with the development of urbanization Short charging time will meet the demand Demand for motorcycles in least developed countries will be stronger ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 5

6 USD/Wh NB Battery Cell Price Trend Battery cell price trend has become bumpy in 3Q Q15-3Q18 Cell Price Trend 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Cylindrical Polymer Prismatic Cell 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Cylindrical (USD /Wh) <2.8 Ah 1.00% 0.99% 0.00% 2.8~3.0 Ah 0.91% 1.90% 0.00% >3.2 Ah 2.27% 1.33% 0.88% Polymer (USD /Wh) <3.5 Ah 0.27% 2.18% -4.00% >3.5 Ah 0.79% 4.43% -1.52% Prismatic ($/Wh) <3 Ah 2.48% 2.82% -1.96% >3 Ah 4.35% 4.17% -2.00% Cylindrical battery: Due to the tight capacity and the oligopolistic supply market, the price has remained stable. Prismatic battery and polymer battery: Under the influence of cobalt price falling back from June, most prismatic and polymer batteries prices began to decline in the third quarter, with polymer battery price falling by an average of 1-4% and prismatic battery price by an average of around 2%. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 6

7 M/m NB Battery Supply Capacity Status Cylindrical battery supply has decreased IT Cylindrical Cell supply SDI LGC new Panasonic Sony Maxell IT Polymer Cell supply SDI LGC new Panasonic Sony Maxell 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Prismatic battery: Cylindrical battery: Polymer battery: ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 7

8 NB Battery Cell Supply Trend Mixture material development has slowed down ED 100% LCO LCO+ 5% 85% Mixture NMC Lower cost 3~5% Materials 65% NMC Materials NMC (1:1:1) Still developing 2H19 maybe install 1H18 2H18 Trend of mixture material has been unchanged: Mixture material development has slowed down: ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 8

9 M/m Power Battery Supply Capacity Status Cylindrical battery capacity has increased Power Cylindrical Cell supply Panasonic Sony LGC SDI Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 International cylindrical battery: Chinese cylindrical battery: ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 9

10 Outline IT Application Battery cell price trend has become bumpy in 3Q18 Cylindrical battery supply has decreased Mixture material development has slowed down Materials and Capacity for Power Battery Cylindrical battery capacity has increased Solid-state battery will enter small production by 2020 Lithium battery material: LFP will gradually lose its advantage, Si-O will be introduced and wet processed separator will continue to develop Power Tools and Motorcycle Market Power tool brand market distribution Comparison of specifications of different types of batteries Lithium battery capacity and discharge specifications evolution Motorcycle will crowd out car demand with the development of urbanization Short charging time will meet the demand Demand for motorcycles in least developed countries will be stronger ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 10

11 Rechargeable Batteries Development Trend Solid-state battery will enter small production by 2020 Power density (W/L) Energy Li-ion HEV Apply IT& BEV Apply All Solid state Metal -Air ~ Ni-MH Energy density (Wh/L) Energy density is the key: Development schedule of solid state battery: ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 11

12 Lithium Battery Cells Energy Density Development LFP will gradually lose its advantage Battery pack price (USD/kWh) NMS has become the mainstream: LFP has faced a dilemma: ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 12

13 Anode Material Development Trend Si-O will be introduced Potential Versus (V) Energy density (Ah/L) IT xevs Time Li-Metal 4000 Capacity (Ah/kg) Development of anode material: Anode Material has stared to introduce Si-O: ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 13

14 Separator Development Trend Wet processed separator will continue to develop Dry Process Wet Process Pore Size Distribution (µm) Thickness (µm) Porosity (%) Melting Temperature ( C) Dry process high safety lower energy density Wet process the required functionality can be increased through coating technology Wet process has become the market mainstream: Coating has become the mainstream of wet process: ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 14

15 China s New Energy Vehicle New Policy Stricter subsidy standards in 2018 Increase battery energy density requirements Reduce bus subsidy Subsidy by operating mileage The energy density threshold requirements of battery electric passenger vehicle, non-fast charging battery electric bus and special purpose vehicle power battery systems are increased, and high performance power battery applications are encouraged. The subsidy standard of new energy passenger vehicle is more strict. The subsidy standard of new energy bus and new energy special purpose vehicle is reduced, and the subsidy of fuel cell vehicle remains unchanged. The application for financial subsidies for the private purchase of new energy passenger vehicles, special vehicles for operational use (including sanitation vehicles), government official vehicles and vehicles in civil aviation airports shall not be subject to operating mileage requirements, and the operating mileage requirements for other types of new energy vehicles shall be adjusted to 20,000 kilometers new policy: New subsidy standard: ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 15

16 Automotive Power Battery Type 48V lithium battery will open new demand for high power battery Discharge Power (C-rate) V ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 16

17 K Cars China s New Energy Vehicle Market Scale Growing rapidly in Global xevs Demand (Passenger Car) Subsidies in 2018 are becoming tighter: Subsidies in 2019 are expecting to decrease again: BEV HEV/ PHEV M-HEV BEV HEV/ PHEV M-HEV BEV HEV/ PHEV M-HEV BEV HEV/ PHEV M-HEV China US Euro Others ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 17

18 MWh New Energy Vehicle Battery Market Scale Forecast 48V battery demand will increase rapidly 40,000 Global xevs battery demand (passenger car) 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 BEV HEV/ PHEV shev BEV HEV/ PHEV shev BEV HEV/ PHEV shev BEV HEV/ PHEV shev China US Euro Others Market demand for electric vehicles in 2019 is still dominated by China, and battery demand is expected to reach 34GWh in In terms of new energy vehicles, shev (48V battery) is expected to start growing rapidly in 2018 and become the fastest-growing hybrid electric vehicle in 2019, despite its low battery usage. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 18

19 China s Power Battery Utilization Rate Forecast New reshuffle challenge will be faced in the coming year 2018 Ranking Cell Company (Chinese) Cell Company (English) 2016 Sales (GWh/y) 2017 Sales (GWh/y) 2018 Sales (GWh/y) 2Q18 Utilization Rate (%) 3Q18 Utilization (%) 1 寧德時代 CATL 2 比亞迪 BYD 3 億緯鋰能 Evebattery 4 比克 BAK 5 沃特瑪 OptimumNano 6 合肥國軒 Guazuan 7 力神 Lishan 8 萬象 Wanxiang 9 中航 China Aviation 10 北京國能 National Battery The rapid decline of the subsidy policy in 1H18: Utilization rates need to remain 30% to survive in the market: ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 19

20 kg/ton Energy Consumption (MJ/kg) Various Types of Battery Recycling Battery recycling economic benefits 400 Recycle Battery- Material Distribution 250 Mineral and Recycle Energy Consumption Analysis LFP NCM LCO 0 Al Ni Fe Cu Cu Co Al Li Ni Mn Fe New Mineral Production Recycle Production Applications: Both Al and Ni have higher recycling values: ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 20

21 Outline IT Application Battery cell price trend has become bumpy in 3Q18 Cylindrical battery supply has decreased Mixture material development has slowed down Materials and Capacity for Power Battery Cylindrical battery capacity has increased Solid-state battery will enter small production by 2020 Lithium battery material: LFP will gradually lose its advantage, Si-O will be introduced and wet processed separator will continue to develop Power Tools and Motorcycle Market Power tool brand market distribution Comparison of specifications of different types of batteries Lithium battery capacity and discharge specifications evolution Motorcycle will crowd out car demand with the development of urbanization Short charging time will meet the demand Demand for motorcycles in least developed countries will be stronger ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 21

requirement: Market share of power tool supply: ALL RIGHTS

22 Power Tool Market Trend Power tool brand market distribution 2018 Power Tool Market Share DIY Professional Specification requirement: Market share of power tool supply: ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 22

23 Power Tool Market Trend Comparison of specifications of different batteries Weight density (Wh/kg) Self discharge (%/m) NiCd NiMH Liion Nickel-cadmium battery has been gradually eliminated: Battery cycle life Working temperature ( C) Charging efficiency (%) Lithium battery obviously owns better advantages: Battery Specifications for Small Manual Tools Power tool operating temperature Working voltage Maximum discharge current General discharge current Charging current Lifespan ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 23

24 Power Tool Battery Lithium battery capacity and discharge specifications Power tool battery specifications: New cylindrical battery will enter the market: ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 24

25 Number of passengers Two-wheeled Vehicle Market Positioning Motorcycle will crowd out car demand Shorter distances with more diversified routes will result in more transportation options Public transportation will boost more transportation options Electric motorcycle will be able to meet the demand: Travel distance ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 25

26 Personal Transportation Vehicle Situational Analysis Short charging time will meet the demand xevs (50kWh) E-scooter(3kWh) Common/ Maximum distance (km) E-bike (0.5kWh) 2/ 15 Optimal charging mode charging/ changing charging/ changing charging Charging time (hr) 0.15 (220V, 15Ah) Urbanization will allow personal transportation vehicles to travel shorter distances with less battery capacity. The characteristics of the mileage requirement will make the battery capacity not too high, but the charging configuration needs to be extensive and convenient. Charging power specification distinction: Short-distance trends allow charging to meet the needs of the use: ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 26

27 萬輛 Motor Vehicle Market Development in Various Regions Demand in least developed countries will be stronger India Scooter/ Motorcycle market sales China Indone sia Vietna m Thailan d Euro North US Japan Taiwan Developing country: Regional developments vary: ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 27

28 Conclusion IT Application Under the influence of cobalt price falling back, battery cell price trend has become bumpy in 3Q18. In 4Q18, it is expected to decrease. Meanwhile, mixture material development has been deferred. Power Battery Material and Capacity Cylindrical batteries have expanded in power applications. With the evolution of materials, the price performance ratio of power battery will increase massively in Power Tool and Motorcycle Market The market scale of power tool has been stable. With the evolution of power battery, the practicability and market penetration rate of power tools will be improved. Motorcycles will become high-growth vehicles in emerging countries. With the exception of China, where the use of motorcycles will be reduced due to the rise of average income, demands for motorcycles in most countries will increase steadily, boosting another important application of power batteries in addition to new energy vehicles. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 28

29 Contact US Joanne Wu Grace Li 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Supply Market Trend Trend of Commodities and Battery Market 1. Long-term Trend for battery material 2. Policy update for Lithium Battery in China and new energy vehicle (LEV, xevs) Trend of Commodities and Battery Market 1. New formation battery- cathode material technology 2. Policy update for lithium battery in China and new energy vehicle (LEV, xevs) Trend of Commodities and Battery Market 1. New formation battery- anode and separator material technology 2. Policy update for lithium battery in China and new energy vehicle (LEV, xevs) Demand Market Trend Trend of Application Market 1. Demand of energy storage market 2. Supply and demand of battery in IT market and its price change 3. Niche application (Medical Application) Trend of Application Market 1. Supply of energy storage market 2. Demand of xevs market 3. Supply and demand change of battery in IT market 4. Niche application (electrical bicycle) Trend of Application Market 1. Battery reuse market development 2. Supply and demand change of battery in IT market 3. Niche application (power tool) Trend of Commodities and Battery Market Trend of Application Market 1. Analysis of solid state battery technology / supply chain overview of 1. Analysis of new-type personal transporting vehicle solid state battery technology market- LEV 2. Policy update for lithium battery in China and new energy vehicle 2. Supply and demand change of battery in IT market (LEV, xevs) 3. Niche application (handheld device) ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION. 16 October 2018 Page 29

Growth Trends in Li-Ion Batteries

Growth Trends in Li-Ion Batteries The effect on LCE consumption Elewout Depicker Purchase Director 5th Lithium Supply & Markets January 2013, Las Vegas Agenda Introduction: Umicore within the Li-Ion market