Impact of uncertainty in automotive fuel and energy storage on selected elements David Trafford CEO, CRU Consulting

Transcription

1 Impact of uncertainty in automotive fuel and energy storage on selected elements David Trafford CEO, CRU Consulting June 2018

2 Selected elements V Pb Ni Mn Co Vanadium Lead Nickel Manganese Cobalt Key uses can be summarised as follows: Steel hardening Batteries for automotive Stainless steel Metal alloys High strength alloys Pigments Stationary storage ICE Batteries for NEVs 2

3 Automotive fuel 150 Mn Units ICE PETROL ICE DIESEL HEV PHEV BEV FCEV PFCEV Cathode composition by battery storage technology 1,5 KGs per kwh 1,0 0,5 0,0 NCA Lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide battery Source: CRU Battery Metals Market Outlook N:M:C 1:1:1 N:M:C 5:3:2 N:M:C 8:1:1 NiMH Nickel Metal Hydride Lithium Cobalt Nickel Manganese Aluminium Increasing complexity of fuel types 3

4 Energy storage set to grow Power demand NEV s will substantially increase electricity consumption New electricity demand will come from charge stations across the road network In parallel increased electricity generation from renewable sources and demand for recharging automobiles will put pressure on supply Time of the day 1 mn BEV 3 mn BEV 5 mn BEV 5 mn BEV (with grid storage) Stationary storage will be used to smooth peaks and troughs in demand economically smoothing energy demand Source: CRU Battery Metals Market Outlook 4

5 Many sources of uncertainty may delay decisions Policy Technology Capacity Enabling Infrastructure Many levels of government creating policy, from Intergovernmental to city majors creating layers of rules and policies Rate of development is key to bringing down costs to make policy affordable. Many alternatives still available Extreme commodity intensity; investments in production capacity face uncertainty about technology and infrastructure Decision to invest will hasten demise of old technology (ICE). Higher renewables penetration compounds issues Fast & important changes No clear winners yet Some speculation will be needed Additional set of market participants Wrong or mistimed decisions will cost participants dearly Clarity about direction but not outcomes 5

6 Single policy statements can make a large difference Government of China announcements NEV program Subsidy Made in China New subsidy scheme NEV quota system % [VALUE], 18.1 mn units 10% 5% 0% [VALUE], 2.4 mn units [VALUE], 5.7 mn units [VALUE], 14.2 mn units [VALUE] 3.4 mn units Pre China NEV policy Post China NEV policy Credit /quota system if implemented +67% by 2025 Source: CRU Automotive Fleet Model 6

7 Automotive and storage Storage demand as % of total demand Automotive demand as % of total demand Vanadium Lead Nickel Manganese* Cobalt 1% 24% 2% 2% 8% 3% 24% 6% 4% 23% Storage / Automotive demand growth as % of total demand growth, Vanadium Lead Nickel Manganese (EMM*) Cobalt 19% 24% 29% 8% 63% a significant driver of demand growth. 7

8 Vanadium recently surprised on the upside 23 Criticality score Years of known reserves Abundance of known reserves (250 years) V Vanadium of supply Ample mine capacity is available Vulnerability to absence of substitution of demand Years of known reserves Supply chain recycling of supply Political exposure of supply Political exposure of supply China, South Africa and Russia dominate supply, medium term alternative sources would be available Supply chain recycling Will be easy in stationary storage of demand Civil engineering related legislation is a current driver of demand. Storage demand will not change balance Vulnerability to the absence of substitution Available in most applications, but at a higher cost 8

9 Lead future is positive with automobile and storage 82 Criticality score Years of known reserves 19 years of reserves Pb Lead of supply Sufficient mine capacity exists to meet future demand Vulnerability to absence of substitution of demand Years of known reserves Supply chain recycling of supply Political exposure of supply Political exposure of supply Diversified and low risk Supply chain recycling Well established and significant contribution to annual supply of demand Stable demand Vulnerability to the absence of substitution Pb-acid batteries dominance is threatened by new developments 9

10 Nickel vulnerable to fly-up in price 28 Ni Nickel Criticality score Years of known reserves 35 years of reserves do not give huge comfort that there will not be a problem in the longer term of supply Additional capacity required to meet future demand Vulnerability to absence of substitution of demand Years of known reserves Supply chain recycling of supply Political exposure of supply Political exposure of supply is a medium risk, while there are diversified sources, many are in higher risk countries Supply chain recycling Recycling is well established of demand Nickel use is impacted by new technology and new applications Vulnerability to the absence of substitution Nickel can be substituted in key applications, but at higher costs 10

11 Manganese 25 Mn Manganese Criticality score Years of known reserves 37 years of reserves of supply Additional capacity required to meet future demand Vulnerability to absence of substitution of demand Years of known reserves Supply chain recycling of supply Political exposure of supply Political exposure of supply South Africa dominates supply then Australia and China Supply chain recycling Well established and increasing in line with steel of demand No disruptive demand expected Vulnerability to the absence of substitution Can t be substituted in certain applications - high strength alloy steels 11

12 Cobalt the risk of over-reliance is well known 27 Co Cobalt Criticality score Years of known reserves 70 years of reserves at current production rates will decline to 25 years in ten years if no new reserves identified of supply Forecast supply deficit for 2027 is greater than 30% Vulnerability to absence of substitution of demand Years of known reserves Supply chain recycling of supply Political exposure of supply Political exposure of supply 50% of mine supply comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo Supply chain recycling High recycling rate needed to maintain supply / demand balance of demand More than 60% of demand growth coming from automotive sector Vulnerability to the absence of substitution Efforts being made to minimise use of cobalt in battery applications 12

13 Vulnerability matrix - used to identify risk of price fly-ups Vulnerability matrix Based on criticality assessment 6 120% 100% Economic Impact [CELLRAN GE] [CELLRAN GE] [CELLRAN GE] [CELLRAN GE] [CELLRAN GE] 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Supply Risk -20% Cobalt Nickel Sulphate Electrolytic Manganese Metal Lead Vanadium 13

14 A criticality assessment tool usable by all stakeholders 1. Years of known reserves 2. of supply 3. of demand 4. Political exposure of supply 5. Supply chain recycling 6. Vulnerability to the absence of substitution KPIs Tool A guide to make sound decisions aware of incumbent risks about choices of raw material and reasonable opinions Criticality Assessment Could be expanded further to include end of life recycling of electric and electronic waste Future development Adaptable to all stakeholders Business leaders and policy makers o from different regions o at various stages of the supply chain o with different time perspective 14

15 THANK YOU David Trafford CEO, CRU Consulting CRU International Limited London Sydney Tokyo Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Mumbai Toronto New York Pittsburgh Sao Paulo Santiago Registered in England No Registered office: Charles House, Finchley Road, London NW3 5JJ 15