Lithium ion battery raw material Supply & demand

Transcription

1 material Supply & demand Director, AVICENNE ENERGY Presentation Outline The rechargeable battery market in 216 The Li-ion battery value chain Li-ion battery material market Forecasts & conclusions

2 Tons $/Wh Million Units / year Million Units/Year THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) 3 Li-ion 2 NiMH Tons of cathode active materials 6,9 178, Portable PC sold per Year (Million) Li-ion 195 M Tablets 165 M Portable PCs Li-ion 1865 cell price ($/Wh) Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, : AVICENNE Estimation 2

3 MWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, : AVICENNE Estimation 3 NiCD

4 MWh MWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (9% market share) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, : AVICENNE Estimation 4

5 Billion US $ Billion US$ THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET BILLION US$ in 216 Pack level 1 5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2-216) (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, ), data collection & handy terminals, POWER Tools: power tools but alsogardening tools 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included OTHERS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIAL E-BIKES POWER TOOLS PORTABLE INDUSTRIAL MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, : AVICENNE Estimation 5 SLI

6 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 216: US $ 65 BILLION EV, E-Bus Portable SLI Marine Medical devices Seismic ESS UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, US $ 22,8 Billion for other applications 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Lead Acid LIB Other Applications Marine Medical devices Seismic ESS UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, : AVICENNE Estimation 6 E-Bikes

7 M Wh LI-ION IN MAIN APPLICATIONS +78 MWh M$ (1) M small cells CAGR 26/ % per year in Volume 9, 8, Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, : < 2GWh Portable Electronics 17% Phones 17% 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus Excl. China Auto, E-bus Excl. China 13% Portable PC 66% 216: 78 GWh Auto, E-bus China 3% - (1) Cell level : medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy 217 Electronic devices Electronic devices 4% 216: AVICENNE Estimation 11% Industrial, ESS 6% 7

8 M$ M$ LI-ION IN MAIN APPLICATIONS +78 MWh M$ (1) M small cells CAGR 26/ % per year in Volume Cell: +15,5% per year in value Pack: +16% per year in value 25, Li-ion cells M$, Worldwide, , Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, , 25, 15, 1, 5, Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus Excl. China 2, 15, 1, 5, - Electronic devices - : medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy : AVICENNE Estimation 8

9 Production cost LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST IS RAW MATERIALS RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 5 TO 7% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 4 Ah EV pouch cell NMC 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Operating profit Proces Yield Depreciation SGA, overhead R&D Utility Labor Material Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 Average cost structure of Li-ion cell in 216 Overheads 3% Sales & Adm 3% R&D 6% Direct labor 4% Warranty 3% Energy, utilities 4% Depreciation 14% Margin 7% Other materials 11% Cell Process Yield, Scraps 4% Cathode cost 22% Separator 7% Anode cost 6% Electrolyte 6% 9

10 LI-ION VALUE CHAIN MARKET DEMAND CATHODE 184 OOO T in 216 Revenues: 4 B$ CAGR 6/16: +22% CELL MANUFACTURERS PACK MANUFACTURERS ANODE >88 T Revenues:,9 B$ CAGR 6/16: +12% ELECTROLYTE >86 T Revenues: 1,1 B$ CAGR 6/16 : 19% Revenues: 2,6 B$ Gross margin: <1% Revenues: 25 B$ Gross margin: <1% SEPARATOR 1 3 M m² Revenues: 1,3 B$ CAGR 6/16 : 18% ANCILLARY Revenues: 1,3 B$ Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 1

11 $/kg LIB CATHODE MATERIAL Cathode raw materials market (1) M= Fe or Mn LiCoO2 (LCO) LiMn2O4 (LMO) LiMPO4 (1) (LFP) Li[NixMnyCoz]O2 - NMC Li[NixCoyAlz]O2 NCA Source: SANYO, March Ni Co 1 Ni & Co price Source: Mitsubishi, Batteries 212 Nice Source: LME 11

12 Tons CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS Cathode active materials for LIB in Tons, (Demand) 2, 15, 1, 5, - LEADERS: NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: 65,79 15,668 15,918 47,556 39,37 LFP ( ) LMO NCA NMC LCO Rationales In 216, LCO is used in pouch cells for electronic devices: smartphones, tablets, ultra thin portable PCs NMC is used in other electronic devices & xev NCA is used by 1865 Panasonic cells in Tesla cars and as a blend with LMO in other xev LMO is mostly used as a blend with NMC in xev LFP is used in xev, e-buses in China and for industrial applications Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY

13 $ / kg Tons LCO DEMAND: CAGR :+5% LCO demand details LCO Offer in 215 Industrials E-bus xev China xev Power Tools, E-bikes Other Electronics Portable PCs Smart Phones, Tablets LCO: Tablets, Smartphones 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Shan Shan 9% 2% Other China 8% PULEAD 9% L&F 15% Internal 2% Nichia 9% Umicore 15% Reshine 15% B&M 1% Easpring 6% LCO Price forecasts Material Assumption: : Co price 28$/kg Lithium carbonate 1 $/kg LCO summary of outlook Demand: In 215, LCO was used in most of the pouch cell lithium ion batteries for electronic devices like smartphones & tablets. Most OEM (Samsung, Apple, etc..) confirm that LCO will be the first choice for the future. Then, for portable PCs, penetration of LCO will increase thanks to thinner high end portable PC using pouch cells. LCO will not be used in large format cells where NMC is preferred. Price: if the matal price are stable from 216 to 225, small cost decrese thanks to scale economy. Suppliers: Umicore, L&F, and main Chinese (Pulead, ShanShan, Reshine) will keep the lead. Not sure that Nichia will stay at the top. Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY

14 $ / kg Tons NMC DEMAND: CAGR : +15% NMC demand details IND OTH ELEC NMC Offer in 215 Industrials E-bus xev China xev Power Tools, E-bikes Other Electronics Portable PCs Smart Phones, Tablets NMC Price forecasts 4 3 NMC: Electronics, EV, others 2, 15, 1, 5, AUTO Kelong Easpring 4% 4% Xiamen Tungsten 8% Jinhe 9% 12% KLK 2% NMC evolution Tianjiao 3% ShanShan 11% L&F 6% Nichia 9% Umicore 15% Internal 17% % NMC 532 NMC 622 NMC 811 NMC Assumption: : Co price 28$/kg Lithium carbonate 1 $/kg - Ni 12$/kg NMC summary of outlook Demand: Except xev in China, NMC is driven by xev: Nissan will switch from NCA-LMO to NMC for example. Then, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Honda all choose NMC. From 212 to 216 the clear trend was to switch from LMO-NMC 75/25 to LMO-NMC 25/75. LG, Panasonic and Samsung agreed that NMC will be the 1 st choice for xev first in Japan, US and Europe, and then, in 22 in China. Price will decrease thanks to process manufacturing improvement. Suppliers: Umicore, L&F, and main Chinese (ShanShan) will keep the lead. LG and Samsung will outsource more (Internal part will decrease). As new entrant, BASF try to be on thi s market since 211. There market share may increase. 1% 5% Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY

15 $ / kg Tons NCA DEMAND: CAGR : +11% ELEC NCA demand details NCA Offer in 215 NCA Price forecasts Industrials E-bus xev China xev Power Tools, E-bikes Other Electronics Portable PCs Smart Phones, Tablets 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, NCA evolution Assumption: : Co price 28$/kg Lithium carbonate 1 $/kg - Ni 12$/kg NCA summary of outlook NCA: Tesla OTH IND Material AUTO Ecopro 5% Nihon Kagaku Sangyo 13% 8% Sumitomo 58% Toda Kogyo 16% Demand: NCA are also used in electronic devices, in prismatic and cylindrical cells. Main NCA users in electronic devices are Panasonic, Sony and Samsung. They will keep using NCA but LCO will stay the first choice. Panasonic and Samsung confirm that they supply more and more power tools mfg with NCA (from 15% in 215 to 25% in 225). Other NCA usage is of course for the TESLA. We do not think TESLA will switch for another technology in the next years. Price decrease thanks to better mfg. process Supplier: Sumitomo will keep the lead thanks to Panasonic / Tesla. Toda Kogyo market share will probably increase thanks to BASF part nership. 15 1% 5% % Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 Ni 9% Ni 87% Ni 83%

16 $ / kg Tons LFP DEMAND: CAGR :+8% OTH LFP demand details LFP Offer in 215 Industrials E-bus xev China xev Power Tools, E-bikes Other Electronics Portable PCs Smart Phones, Tablets LFP: Industrial, E-Bus 1, IND 8, 6, 4, 2, AUTO E- BUS Tatung 3% Zhuoneng 8% 21% INTERNAL 36% Pulead JOHNSON 9% MATTHEY STL ALEEES 8% 8% 7% Internal: BYD, Hefei Guoxuan High Tech Power source (Gxgk), Huanyu Power Source Co., Ltd., LG, A123 (Wanxiang EV Co., Ltd), Hi Power - : Hunan Haorun Technology, Henan Tianke, Likai, Tiehu Energy and many others LFP Price forecasts Material Assumption: : Lithium carbonate 1 $/kg LFP summary of outlook LFP demand is driven by xev, E-Bus in China, e-bikes and Stationary application. Chinese industrial agreed that E-bikes, e- bus and stationary app will use LFP for the next 1 years. The cost and the life time are the main criteria and Energy density is not so important. Then, Chinese xev mfg. (BYD, Kandi, Zotye, Baic, Chery ) told us that they will switch from LFP to NMC. Price: Process manufacturing cost will decrease. Pulead forecast 11-12$/kg in 225. Suppliers: Pulead will probably increase market share thanks to new contract with BYD and others Chinese battery mfg. Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY

17 $ / kg Tons LMO DEMAND: CAGR :+1% OTH LMO demand details AUTO LMO Offer in 215 Industrials E-bus xev China xev Power Tools, E-bikes Other Electronics Portable PCs Smart Phones, Tablets LMO: AUTO 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, IND E- BUS Mitsui 12% POSCO ESMNichia 12% 5% Reshine 9% 18% ShanShan 9% Nippon Denko 4% Yuan Yuan 5% JGC 12% Qyanyun 14% LMO Price forecasts Material Assumption: Lithium carbonate price $/kg LMO summary of outlook Demand: LMO is almost never the first choice for Lithium ion cathode. But, LMO is low cost and bring stability to the cathode. LMO is used in power tools and will be used, blended with NMC. So, for the future, LMO demand will be mostly driven by NMC/LMO blended cathode used in EV worldwide, EV in China to replace LFP (22) and later E-bus in China (225). Price: LMO price decreased a lot from 21 to 215. We think we almost achieve the lowest possible level. Suppliers: Most of the supply will stay in China (ShanShan, Qyanyun, ). Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY

18 Tons CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL FORECASTS Cathode active materials Tons 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% LCO NMC NCA LMO LFP China (%) ASSUMPTIONS: Portable devices: : +6% per year in volume HEV: 4,8 M HEV/year in 22-35% LIB, 6,8 M HEV in 225 9% LIB P-HEV:,4 M P-HEV/year +,5 M in China in 22,,6 M in M in China, 1% LIB EV:,6 M EV/year in M in China, 1M/year + 1,5 M in China in 225, 1% LIB Industrial & stationary: : +16% per year % Cathode active materials in 216 > 18 Tons LFP 36% LMO 8% NCA 9% LCO 21% NMC 26% Cathode active materials in Tons LMO 9% LFP 24% NCA LCO 16% NMC 41% 1% Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (2 EV sold per year in 225 TESLA forecast 5 ) Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY

19 Tons ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS > 88 TONS IN 216 LIB Anode Materials Source: A. Jossen, IRES 27 LIB Anode Materials Source: Sanyo, March 213 Source: Hitachi Chemical LIB Anode market, (Tons) LTO Si or Sn Type Amorphous Carbon Artificial Graphite Natural Graphite Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY

20 ANODE FOR LIB IN 216 Natural graphite become a commodity Hard Carbon Soft Carbon Graphite Capacity (/g) 4 mah/g 25 mah/g mah/g Capacity (/cc) ++ + Power ++ + Stability ++ + Cyclability Source: Hitachi Chemical ++ + Carbon for LIB anodes by type (216) Artificial Graphite 43% Natural Graphite 46% Amorphous 7% Si or Sn Type LTO2% 2% Precursors COST 215->22 Petroleum Pitch, Resin, cellulose, wood, coconuts Petroleum coke Natural or petroleum coke 25 -> 2 $/kg 2->15 $/kg 7-13-> 6-1 $/kg SUPPLIERS KUREHA HITACHI HITACHI BTR LEADERS: NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 ( ) 2

21 $ / kg Tons NATURAL GRAPHITE: CAGR : +3% Natural Graphite demand details NG Offer in 216 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, POSCO Chemtech 4% Nippon Carbon 4% Mitsubishi 16% 16% HITACHI 11% Shenzhen BTR 49% OTHERS 35% Typical Product D 5 = 16 mm 35 mah/g 5% irreversible cap. BET: 1m²/g CHINA 65% NG Price forecasts Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 NG summary of outlook Demand: small growth because new app. Need artificial Gr. This demand may change if the price decrease is more important for NG compare to AG. Price: The price will decrease fast because the supply is huge. Already over supply in China ( Capacity: BTR 3 Tons, Zichen: 1 Tons, Shinzom: 1 Tons, Sinuo: 8 Tons, Qingdao: 8 Tons, Jianxi Zhentuo: 7 Tons, Kimwan: 5 Tons ). Then, a lot of new projects in China and Canada: Focus Graphite > 4 Tons/year (22*), Northern Graphite > 2 Tons/year (after 218*) Syrah Resources Ltd. > 8 Tons (22*) Suppliers: BTR and new Chinese (Zichen thanks to ATL, - Shinzom thanks to BYD, CATL Sinuo etc ). New entrant like Focus Graphite, Northern Graphite, or Syrah Resources Ltd. May change the market share in the future * Subject to financing 21

22 $ / kg Tons ARTIFICIAL GR.:CAGR : +15% Artificial Graphite demand details Artificial Graphite Offer in , 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Showa Denko 5% JFE 11% Mitsubishi 9% 6% Shanshan 38% HITACHI 31% OTHERS 55% CHINA 45% Typical Product D 5 = 2 mm 365 mah/g 1-5% irreversible cap. BET:,5m²/g Artificial Graphite Price forecasts Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 Artificial Graphite summary of outlook Demand: The demand will increase fast thanks to xev market. Long life time requirement involve high level of purity and high consistancy, difficult to achieve with Natural Graphite. Price will decrease fast thanks to better process efficiency, new process Supply: Thanks to the best quality, Hitachi will keep the lead but Chinese main suppliers market share will increase (ShanShan mostly). Production Capacity: Hitachi: 15 Tons, ShanShan: 15 Tons project in Lingang Park (Shanghai) to add 2 Tons/year, Mitsubishi: 7 Tons, JFE: 7 Tons, Showa Denko: 3 Tons 22

23 LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 216 In February 215, ASAHI announced that they will acquire all Polypore shares in the Energy Storage segment: Asahi Kasei to pay around $2.2billion to purchase Polypore s battery separator business LIB separator market, M$ - CAGR 26/216: +13% Supplier, market share in % Jinhui 4% W-Scope 6% ASAHI 17% TORAY 15% Green 3% Senior 3% UBE CELGARD 6% 8% SK 9% ENTEK 4% SUMITOMO 6% Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 M$ Mm² : Shanghai Energy, Newmi, JGP, TDK, In house (BYD), Mingzhu, Tianfeng, Yiteng, BNE 23

24 Tons ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS > 86 TONS IN 216 LIB electrolyte market, Tons, CAGR 26/216: +26% Portables electronics E-bikes Auto & E-Bus China Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 Power Tools Automotive (12v, HEV, PHEV, EV) Industrial LIB electrolyte supplier, market share in 216 Soulbrain 5% Shanshan 8% Capchem 14% TINCI 6% Jinniu 8% Mitsui 3% 5% Ube 4% Mitsubishi 12% Zhangjiagang Guotai- Huarong 15% Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong In-House 9% Tomiyama 3% PANAX-ETEC 8% 24

25 BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS Applications covered Parameters analysis Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-book Cellular Phones, Smart-phones Tablets Camcorders Cordless Tools, Gardening tools Digital Camera Games, MP3 Cordless Phones Shavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars E-bikes Power tools Security lighting Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV Industrial motive (forklift) Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom) Medical Energy Storage (Small / large) Main segment trends Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time) Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor, Forecasts OEM strategies and positions Main drivers & limiters 25

26 MWh M cells/year 225 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES LIB market, MWh, by application (3C) CAGR 16-25: + 6% Otherr Portable Electronics Tablets Portable PCs Cellular Phones LIB market, M cells, by form factor (3C) Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Li-P Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 213 (1) (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 213 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 26

27 HEV sales per year Gasoline $ / Gallon Million Penetration of HEV HEV WORLDWIDE IN 216 1,8 M HEV HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, TOYOTA OTHERS Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, % 2% 1% % Growth : +2% From 1,8 M to 1,84 M HEV JAPON USA EUROPE Gazoline price impact on HEV market in the US Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY - Micro hybrid not included 27

28 P-HEV (units) P-HEV (units) PHEV SOLD WORLDWIDE World excl. China growth +14% Chinese Growth + 21% % Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 217 OTHERS CHINA SAIC BYD OTHERS AUDI PORSCHE HYUNDAI VOLVO DAIMLER BMW HONDA MITSUBISHI VW FORD TOYOTA GM China is leading the P-HEV market thanks to high incentives 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, - CHINA 29% 6% EUROPE 39% US 24% JAPAN 2% Europe China USA Japan 28

29 P-HEV (units) P-HEV (units) EV SOLD WORLDWIDE World excl. China growth +15% Chinese Growth + 68% % Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 217 Other China GAC DongFeng Nissan Chana JMC CHERY JAC Geely BAIC Zhidou Zotye Kandi BYD BOLLORE PSA Honda MITSUBISHI DAIMLER GM Ford KIA VW SMART BMW China is leading the EV market thanks to high incentives 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, - CHINA 55% 6% US 15% JAPAN 3% EUROPE 21% China Europe USA Japan 29

30 LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS B$ WORLDWIDE >5 GWh invest from 211 to 214) > 7 B$ invested from 214 to 217 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1) Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing ATL ( ) BYD ( ) TESLA ( ) LiTec GmbH Panasonic EV SK Ene rgy Mitsubishi H.I. NEC Tokin AESC Japon Hitachi Vehicle Energy SAFT SAFT US BAK Lishen Nissan-Renault (Port) Blue Energy Toshiba Nissan - Renault (UK) LG Che m Rusnano-Thunde r Sky Lithium Energy Japan Hitachi Vehicle Energy SB Limotive GS YUASA Dow Kokam Nissan-Renault (Fr) Ene r1 Sanyo A123 JCI LG Che m BYD Sony NISSAN Motor US PANASONIC (Invest end 216) TESLA, ATL, BYD Investments: 15 $ / kwh Average Investments: 25 $ / kwh M$ TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 215 TESLA GIGA FACTORY, Dec 216 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 217 3

31 TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming. Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF 6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 2 years ago. LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago) Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (2 years ago). So, it takes between 1 & 2 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry. 31

32 TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS Source: AVICENNE ENERGY

33 SAFETY ISSUES Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns Safety is a sine-qua-non selection criteria for batteries. The lithium ion technologies that win will win partly on their safety argument, possibly sacrificing some energy density. Source: AVICENNE ENERGY

34 LIB BATTERY COST Costs analysis Battery price in 216 Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, Cu, ) Anode, cathode, Electrolyte, separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc cost structure : CAPEX, labor cost, R&D Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin) Raw material needs / mah Electrode process Yield Assembly Process Yield Cell manufacturing cost Module manufacturing cost Pack assembly cost Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 $/kwh LIB 1865 cell LIB EV Cell LIB pack for EV LIB HEV cell LIB pack for HEV 34

35 Cell Pack Cell Pack Cell Pack $ / kwh $ / kwh LI-ION BATTERY COST LIB cell average cost (4 Ah pouch) (EV design ; NMC cathode) (1) Active materials only Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 Margin Warranty Overheads Sales & Adm R&D Energy, utilities Direct labor Depreciation Scraps Separator Electrolyte Anode (1) Cathode (1) LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV * For Production > 1 packs/year Pack Cost Cell Manufacturing Other Materials Separator Electrolyte Anode Cathode 35

36 LIB PRICE FORECASTS Avicenne Energy Source: Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles, Nature Climate Change, March

37 HEV penetration (% of total car sales) Million HEV FORECASTS 2-22 HEV MARKET: <2 M units in 216 2,5 M in 22 3,3 M in 225 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS WORLD USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS Micro hybrid not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

38 Million cars Million cars EV, P-HEV, EV 225 FORECASTS Thanks to very high incentives, China change the game 216 forecasts: HEV, P-HEV & EV market forecasts up to HEV, PHEV, EV & E-Bus PHEV, EV & E-Bus 3, Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 217 E-Bus E-Bus China EV in China P-HEV in China EV P-HEV HEV ,6, E-Bus E-Bus China EV in China P-HEV in China EV P-HEV 38

39 M Wh M $ TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND FOR XEV 225 FORECASTS Li-ion for E-Buses, EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) CAGR : +14% Li-ion for E-Buses, EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M$) CAGR : +8% volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China 39

40 M Wh LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS From 78 GWh in 216 to 21 GWh CAGR 216/ % per year in Volume 25, 2, 15, Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, Industrial, ESS CAGR 15/25 16% 17% Auto, E-bus Excl. China 13% 216: 78 GWh Electronic devices 4% Auto, E-bus China 3% Industrial, ESS 6% 11% 1, 5, - : medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy 216 Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus Excl. China Electronic devices 18% 13% 6% Auto, E-bus Excl. China 15% Electronic devices 26% 225: 21 GWh Auto, E-bus China 35% 16% Industrial, ESS 8% 4

41 M$ M$ LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS CAGR 216/ % per year in Volume Cell: +7% per year in value Pack: +8% per year in value 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, - Li-ion cells M$, Worldwide, Industrial, ESS Auto, E- bus China Auto, e- bus Excl. China Electronic devices CAGR 15/25 11% 11% 12% 8% % 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, - Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, : medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy

42 MWh TAKEAWAYS Battery Market CAGR = +5% / Li-ion>+8% RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE Li-ion battery is driven today Automotive & Industrial applications In 212, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Liion for HEV P-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 11 B$ market in B$ in 22 & 22 B$ in 225 with high numbers in China (216: US$ 2,8 Billion for xev and US$ 3,7 Billion for xe-buses) EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 3% of the auto sales in 22 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 22 Micro-hybrid will achieve >5% in 22/25 Lead acid battery will be the first market in 225 in volume, but Li-ion market will be higher than Lead acid from 22. A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 1% in the next 15 years ESS will reach 1 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 years ESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 15 $/kwh 475 GWh 35 GWh 27 GWh 21 GWh B$ (Pack level) 3B$ 43B$ 61 B$ 61 GWh 8 B$ (CAGR ) : Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, 42 LIB NiMH NiCd Lead Acid > 95 B$ Lead Acid (+3%) NiCd (-6%) NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (+%) LIB for xev (+1%) LIB for * (+1%) 2,

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