Lithium-Ion Battery Raw Material Supply and Demand

Transcription

1 Lithium-Ion Battery Raw Material Supply and Demand Mike SANDERS AVICENNE ENERGY Presentation Outline The rechargeable battery market in 216 The Li-ion battery value chain Li-ion battery material market Forecasts & conclusions

2 Tons $/Wh Million Units / year Million Units/Year THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) 3 Li-ion 2 NiMH Tons of cathode active materials Portable PC sold per Year (Million) Li-ion 195 M Tablets 165 M Portable PCs Li-ion 1865 cell price ($/Wh) 2,6, Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 217 2

3 MWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments 12 1 CAGR Li-ion : +25% (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Source: AVICENNE ENERGY,

4 MWh MWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (9% market share) (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 217 4

5 Billion US $ Billion US$ THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET BILLION US$ in 216 Pack level 1 8% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (26-216) (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid OTHERS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIAL E-BIKES POWER TOOLS PORTABLE SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc INDUSTRIAL PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others Camera, ), data collection & handy terminals, STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen DC converters, invertors ) not included concentrators Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, SLI

6 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 216: US $ 69 BILLION EV, E-Bus Portable SLI ESS UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes US $ 23 Billion for other applications 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included Lead Acid LIB ESS UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, E-Bikes

7 M Wh LI-ION IN MAIN APPLICATIONS 9 MWh - 23 B$ (1) M small cells CAGR 26/ % per year in Volume 1 9 Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, : < 2GWh Portable Electronics 17% Phones 17% Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus Excl. China Electronic devices Auto, E-bus Excl. China 17% Portable PC 66% 216: 9 GWh Auto, E-bus China 33% (1) Cell level : medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy 217 Electronic devices 35% Industrial, ESS 5% 1% 7

8 M$ M$ LI-ION IN MAIN APPLICATIONS +9 MWh - 23 B$ (1) M small cells CAGR 26/ % per year in Volume Cell: +17% per year in value Pack: +18% per year in value 25 Li-ion cells M$, Worldwide, Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus Excl. China Electronic devices - : medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy 217 8

9 Production cost LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST IS RAW MATERIALS RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 5 TO 7% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 4 Ah EV pouch cell NMC 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Operating profit Proces Yield Depreciation SGA, overhead R&D Utility Labor Material Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 Average cost structure of Li-ion cell in 216 Overheads 3% Sales & Adm 3% R&D 6% Direct labor 4% Energy, utilities 4% Warranty 3% Depreciation 14% Margin 7% Other materials 11% Cell Process Yield, Scraps 4% Cathode cost 22% Separator 7% Anode cost 6% Electrolyte 6% 9

10 LI-ION VALUE CHAIN MARKET DEMAND CATHODE 211 OOO T in 216 Revenues: 4,75 B$ CAGR 6/16: +14% CELL MANUFACTURERS PACK MANUFACTURERS ANODE 14 T Revenues: 1,16 B$ CAGR 6/16: +13% ELECTROLYTE 13 T Revenues: 1,4 B$ CAGR 6/16 : 19% Revenues: 22,5 B$ Gross margin: <1% Revenues: 31 B$ Gross margin: <1% SEPARATOR 1 5 M m² Revenues: 1,6 B$ CAGR 6/16 : 15% ANCILLARY Revenues: 1,5 B$ Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 216 1

11 $/kg LIB CATHODE MATERIAL Cathode raw materials market (1) M= Fe or Mn LiCoO2 (LCO) LiMn2O4 (LMO) LiMPO4 (1) (LFP) Li[NixMnyCoz]O2 - NMC Li[NixCoyAlz]O2 NCA Source: SANYO, March Ni & Co price Ni Co 5 Source: Mitsubishi, Batteries 212 Nice Source: LME 11

12 Tons CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS Cathode active materials for LIB in Tons, (Demand) LEADERS: 67 NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: 211 LFP ( ) LMO NCA NMC LCO Rationales In 216, LCO is used in pouch cells for electronic devices: smartphones, tablets, ultra thin portable PCs NMC is used in other electronic devices & xev NCA is used by 1865 Panasonic cells in Tesla cars and as a blend with LMO in other xev LMO is mostly used as a blend with NMC in xev LFP is used in xev, e-buses in China and for industrial applications 12

13 $ / kg Tons LCO DEMAND: CAGR :+4% LCO demand details LCO Offer in 216 Industrials E-bus xev China xev LCO: Tablets, Smartphones ELEC OTHERS 39% CHINA 61% Pulead 12% 2% Easpring 9% L&F 16% B&M 12% UMICORE 15% Reshine 9% NICHIA 8% ShanShan 1% Xiamen Tungsten (XTC) 7% LCO Price forecasts Material Assumption: : Co price 28$/kg Lithium carbonate 1 $/kg Co 56$/kg in June 217! LCO summary of outlook Demand: LCO was used in most of the pouch cell lithium ion batteries for electronic devices like smartphones & tablets. Most OEM (Samsung, Apple, etc..) confirm that LCO will be the first choice for the future. Then, for portable PCs, penetration of LCO will increase thanks to thinner high end portable PC using pouch cells. LCO will not be used in large format cells where NMC is preferred. Price: if the metal price are stable from 216 to 225, small cost decrease thanks to scale economy. Suppliers: Umicore, L&F, and main Chinese (Pulead, ShanShan, Reshine) will keep the lead. Not sure that Nichia will stay at the top. Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY

14 $ / kg Tons NMC DEMAND: CAGR : +2% NMC demand details NMC Offer in 216 NMC Price forecasts Industrials E-bus xev China xev Power Tools, E-bikes Other Electronics Portable PCs Smart Phones, Tablets NMC: Electronics, EV, others Tianjiao 6% Easpring 8% Kelong 2% Pulead 1% NMC evolution UMICORE 12% Xiamen Tungsten 1% % NMC 532 NMC 622 NMC 811 NMC Assumption: : Co price 28$/kg Lithium carbonate 1 $/kg - Ni 12$/kg / Co 56$/kg in June 217! NMC summary of outlook ELEC IND OTH E-Bus AUTO 1% 5% Dahua 2% Internal 14% 8% L&F 9% NICHIA 9% ShanShan 12% Demand: Except xev in China, NMC is driven by xev: Nissan will switch from NCA-LMO to NMC for example. Then, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Honda all choose NMC. From 212 to 216 the clear trend was to switch from LMO-NMC 75/25 to LMO-NMC 25/75. LG, Panasonic and Samsung agreed that NMC will be the 1 st choice for xev first in Japan, US and Europe, and then, in 22 in China. Price will decrease thanks to process manufacturing improvement. Suppliers: Umicore, L&F, and main Chinese (ShanShan) will keep the lead. LG and Samsung will outsource more (Internal part will decrease). As new entrant, BASF try to be on this market since 211. There market share may increase. Jinhe 7% OTHERS 45% Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 CHINA 55%

15 $ / kg Tons NCA DEMAND: CAGR : +16% OTH NCA demand details NCA Offer in 216 NCA Price forecasts Industrials E-bus xev China xev Power Tools, E-bikes Other Electronics Portable PCs Smart Phones, Tablets NCA evolution Assumption: : Co price 28$/kg Lithium hydroxide 12 $/kg - Ni 12$/kg BUT Co 56$/kg in June 217! NCA summary of outlook NCA: Tesla IND ELEC Material AUTO Nihon Kagaku Sangyo 5% ECOPRO 5% TODA KOGYO 1% SUMITOMO 73% Demand: NCA are also used in electronic devices, in prismatic and cylindrical cells. Main NCA users in electronic devices are Panasonic, Sony and Samsung. They will keep using NCA but LCO will stay the first choice. Panasonic and Samsung confirm that they supply more and more power tools mfg with NCA (from 15% in 215 to 25% in 225). Other NCA usage is of course for the TESLA. We do not think TESLA will switch for another technology in the next years. Price decrease thanks to better mfg. process Supplier: Sumitomo will keep the lead thanks to Panasonic / Tesla. Toda Kogyo market share will probably increase thanks to BASF partnership. Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY % 5% % KELONG 5% 2% OTHERS 93% CHINA 7% Ni 9% Ni 87% Ni 83%

16 $ / kg Tons LFP DEMAND: CAGR :+8% LFP demand details OTH AUTO LFP Offer in 216 Industrials E-bus xev China xev Power Tools, E-bikes Other Electronics Portable PCs Smart Phones, Tablets LFP: Industrial, E-Bus IND E- BUS Kelong 2% Zhuoneng 6% Tatung 1% ALEEES 3% BTR Energy 3% STL 5% JOHNSON MATTHEY 4% BYD 8% Pulead 13% Internal 27% 28% OTHERS 8% CHINA 92% Internal: BYD, Hefei Guoxuan High Tech Power source (Gxgk), Huanyu Power Source Co., Ltd., LG, A123 (Wanxiang EV Co., Ltd), Hi Power - : Hunan Haorun Technology, Henan Tianke, Likai, Tiehu Energy and many others LFP Price forecasts Material Assumption: : Lithium carbonate 1 $/kg LFP summary of outlook LFP demand is driven by xev, E-Bus in China, e-bikes and Stationary application. Chinese industrial agreed that E-bikes, e- bus and stationary app will use LFP for the next 1 years. The cost and the life time are the main criteria and Energy density is not so important. Then, Chinese xev mfg. (BYD, Kandi, Zotye, Baic, Chery ) told us that they will switch from LFP to NMC. Price: Process manufacturing cost will decrease. Pulead forecast 11-12$/kg in 225. Suppliers: Pulead will probably increase market share thanks to new contract with BYD and others Chinese battery mfg. Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY

17 $ / kg Tons LMO DEMAND: CAGR :-12% LMO demand details LMO Offer in 215 Industrials E-bus xev China xev Power Tools, E-bikes Other Electronics Portable PCs Smart Phones, Tablets LMO: AUTO OTH AUTO Mitsui 12% POSCO ESM 12% Reshine 9% 18% Nichia 5% ShanShan 9% Nippon Denko 4% Yuan Yuan 5% Qyanyun 14% JGC 12% OTHERS 4% CHINA 6% LMO Price forecasts Material Assumption: Lithium carbonate price $/kg LMO summary of outlook Demand: LMO is almost never the first choice for Lithium ion cathode. But, LMO is low cost and bring stability to the cathode. LMO is used in power tools and will be used, blended with NMC. So, for the future, LMO demand will be mostly driven by NMC/LMO blended cathode used in EV worldwide, EV in China to replace LFP (22) and later E-bus in China (225). Price: LMO price decreased a lot from 21 to 215. We think we almost achieve the lowest possible level. Suppliers: Most of the supply will stay in China (ShanShan, Qyanyun, ). Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY

18 Tons CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL FORECASTS Cathode active materials Tons % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% LCO NMC NCA LMO LFP China (%) ASSUMPTIONS: Portable devices: : +6% per year in volume HEV: 2,5 M HEV/year in 22, 3,3 M HEV in 225 P-HEV:,4 M P-HEV/year in 22,,7 M in 225 EV:,4 M EV/year in 22 +,7 M in China,,7 M/year + 1 M in China in 225, 1% LIB Industrial & stationary: : +16% per year % Cathode active materials in 216 > 21 Tons LFP 36% LMO 8% NCA 9% LCO 21% NMC 26% Cathode active materials in Tons LMO 1% NCA 12% LFP 21% LCO 12% NMC 54% Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (+25 EV sold per year in 225 TESLA forecast 5 ) 18

19 Tons ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS 14 TONS IN 216 LIB Anode Materials Source: A. Jossen, IRES 27 LIB Anode Materials 1,5 1,,5, Source: Sanyo, March 213 Source: Hitachi Chemical LIB Anode market, (Tons) LTO Si or Sn Type Amorphous Carbon Artificial Graphite Natural Graphite Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY

20 ANODE FOR LIB IN 216 Natural graphite become a commodity Hard Carbon Soft Carbon Graphite Capacity (/g) 4 mah/g 25 mah/g mah/g Capacity (/cc) ++ + Power ++ + Stability ++ + Cyclability Source: Hitachi Chemical ++ + Carbon for LIB anodes by type (216) Artificial Graphite 43% Natural Graphite 46% Amorphous 7% Si or Sn Type 2% LTO 2% Precursors COST 215->22 Petroleum Pitch, Resin, cellulose, wood, coconuts Petroleum coke Natural or petroleum coke 25 -> 2 $/kg 2->15 $/kg 7-13-> 6-1 $/kg SUPPLIERS KUREHA HITACHI HITACHI BTR LEADERS: NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 ( ) 2

21 $ / kg Tons NATURAL GRAPHITE: CAGR : +4% Natural Graphite demand details NG Offer in POSCO 16% Chemtech 4% Nippon Carbon 4% Mitsubishi 16% HITACHI 11% Shenzhen BTR 49% OTHERS 35% Typical Product D 5 = 16 mm 35 mah/g 5% irreversible cap. BET: 1m²/g CHINA 65% NG Price forecasts Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 NG summary of outlook Demand: small growth because new app. Need artificial Gr. This demand may change if the price decrease is more important for NG compare to AG. Price: The price will decrease fast because the supply is huge. Already over supply in China ( Capacity: BTR 3 Tons, Zichen: 1 Tons, Shinzom: 1 Tons, Sinuo: 8 Tons, Qingdao: 8 Tons, Jianxi Zhentuo: 7 Tons, Kimwan: 5 Tons ). Then, a lot of new projects in China and Canada: Focus Graphite > 4 Tons/year (22*), Northern Graphite > 2 Tons/year (after 218*) Syrah Resources Ltd. > 8 Tons (22*) Suppliers: BTR and new Chinese (Zichen thanks to ATL, - Shinzom thanks to BYD, CATL Sinuo etc ). New entrant like Focus Graphite, Northern Graphite, or Syrah Resources Ltd. May change the market share in the future * Subject to financing 21

22 $ / kg Tons ARTIFICIAL GR.:CAGR : +15% Artificial Graphite demand details Artificial Graphite Offer in Showa Denko 5% JFE 11% Mitsubishi 9% 6% Shanshan 38% HITACHI 31% OTHERS 55% CHINA 45% Typical Product D 5 = 2 mm 365 mah/g 1-5% irreversible cap. BET:,5m²/g Artificial Graphite Price forecasts Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 Artificial Graphite summary of outlook Demand: The demand will increase fast thanks to xev market. Long life time requirement involve high level of purity and high consistancy, difficult to achieve with Natural Graphite. Price will decrease fast thanks to better process efficiency, new process Supply: Thanks to the best quality, Hitachi will keep the lead but Chinese main suppliers market share will increase (ShanShan mostly). Production Capacity: Hitachi: 15 Tons, ShanShan: 15 Tons project in Lingang Park (Shanghai) to add 2 Tons/year, Mitsubishi: 7 Tons, JFE: 7 Tons, Showa Denko: 3 Tons 22

23 LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 216 In February 215, ASAHI announced that they will acquire all Polypore shares in the Energy Storage segment: Asahi Kasei to pay around $2.2billion to purchase Polypore s battery separator business LIB separator market, M$ - CAGR 26/216: +15% Supplier, market share in Jinhui 4% W-Scope 6% ASAHI 17% % TORAY 15% Senior 3% Green 3% UBE CELGARD 6% 8% SK 9% ENTEK 4% SUMITOMO 6% Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 M$ Mm² : Shanghai Energy, Newmi, JGP, TDK, In house (BYD), Mingzhu, Tianfeng, Yiteng, BNE 23

24 Tons ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS 13 TONS IN 216 LIB electrolyte market, Tons, CAGR 26/216: +28% LIB electrolyte supplier, market share in Soulbrain 5% TINCI 6% 5% Ube 4% Mitsubishi 12% Portables electronics Power Tools Shanshan 8% Capchem 14% Jinniu 8% Mitsui 3% Zhangjiagang Guotai- Huarong 15% In-House 9% Tomiyama 3% PANAX-ETEC 8% E-bikes Automotive (12v, HEV, PHEV, EV) Auto & E-Bus China Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 Industrial Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong 24

25 MWh M cells/year 225 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES LIB market, MWh, by application (3C) CAGR 16-25: + 6% Other Portable Electronics Tablets Portable PCs Cellular Phones LIB market, M cells, by form factor (3C) Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Li-P Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 213 (1) (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 213 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 25

26 MWh for Auto & E-buses X-EV MARKET Why x-ev? Definition & segmentation X-EV worldwide in 216 By country By car makers CAGR :+ 17% 11 GWh 185 GWh E-buses PHEV & EV in China By battery chemistry 1 EV X-EV forecasts 8 PHEV AVICENNE ENERGY & other analyst forecasts Battery chemistry forecasts Battery cost forecasts X-EV battery forecasts GWh HEV 26

27 LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS B$ WORLDWIDE >5 GWh invest from 211 to 214) > 7 B$ invested from 214 to 217 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1) Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing ATL ( ) BYD ( ) TESLA ( ) LiTec GmbH Panasonic EV SK Energy Mitsubishi H.I. NEC Tokin AESC Japon Hitachi Vehicle Energy SAFT SAFT US BAK Lishen Nissan-Renault (Port) Blue Energy Toshiba Nissan - Renault (UK) LG Chem Rusnano-Thunder Sky Lithium Energy Japan Hitachi Vehicle Energy SB Limotive GS YUASA Dow Kokam Nissan-Renault (Fr) Ener1 Sanyo A123 JCI LG Chem BYD Sony NISSAN Motor US PANASONIC (Invest end 216) TESLA, ATL, BYD Investments: 15 $ / kwh Average Investments: 25 $ / kwh M$ TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 215 TESLA GIGA FACTORY, Dec 216 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

28 LITHIUM ION CELL PRODUCTION Korean companies start to move in Malaysia New production capacity in Europe and US $ 5 Bn 35 GWh 217 USA 2% LG Johnson-Controls Enersys SAFT $ 562 M 3-5 GWh 218 $ 562 M $ 36 M 3-5 GWh 2-3 GWh EU -<1% SAFT FIAMM BOLLORE $ 6 M 1 GWh 219 $ 1 7 M (1) 25 GWh 225 China 53% BYD GP Lishen COSLIGHT ATL BAK B&K Wanxiang (A123) * 7% SAMSUNG LG Korea 17% SAMSUNG LG SK Kokam Japan 2% Panasonic Sony NEC Maxell PEVE YUASA Source: AVICENNE 217 * OTHERS: Malaysia mostly (1) Government subsidies only 28

29 TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming. Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF 6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 2 years ago. LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago) Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (2 years ago). So, it takes between 1 & 2 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry. 29

30 TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 216 3

31 Aircraft Automotive Mobile Background SAFETY ISSUES Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns In the 8 s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit. Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid electrolyte. In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire ( Thermal runaway ) In 26, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 4 million USD, more than there profit-to-date With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns: (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing!) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota) Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane s shell. CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing. Source: AVICENNE ENERGY

32 Cell Pack Cell Pack Cell Pack $ / kwh $ / kwh LI-ION BATTERY COST LIB cell average cost (4 Ah pouch) (EV design ; NMC cathode) (1) Active materials only Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 216 Margin Warranty Overheads Sales & Adm R&D Energy, utilities Direct labor Depreciation Scraps Separator Electrolyte Anode (1) Cathode (1) LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV * For Production > 1 packs/year Pack Cost Cell Manufacturing Other Materials Separator Electrolyte Anode Cathode 32

33 LIB PRICE FORECASTS Avicenne Energy Source: Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles, Nature Climate Change, March

34 Million cars % Li-ion HEV Million cars Million cars kwh / EV HEV, P-HEV, EV 225 FORECASTS HEV manufactured PHEV manufactured EV manufactured 4,5 1% 1,2 2, ,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1,5 3,9 3, 2,1 1, HEV: 1kWh battery / car 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 1,5 1,8,65,6,8,4,35,5,2,3,2,1, PHEV: 12 kwh battery / car 2 1,5 1,5 2,8 1,25,45 1,2,45,8,24,18,

35 M Wh M $ TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND 225 FORECASTS Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) CAGR : +17% Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M$) CAGR : +12% volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China 35

36 M $ M $ X-EV BATTERY MARKET IN M$ Cell Level Pack Level CAGR : +12% CAGR : +11% volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China 36

37 M Wh LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS From 9 GWh in 216 to 3 GWh CAGR 216/ % per year in Volume Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, : medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy 216 Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus Excl. China Electronic devices CAGR 15/25 (Realistic) 16% 22% 22% 17% 6% Auto, E-bus Excl. China 13% Auto, E-bus Excl. China 21% 216: 9 GWh Electronic devices 4% 225: 3 GWh Electronic devices 18% Auto, E-bus China 3% Industrial, ESS 6% 11% Auto, E-bus China 43% Industrial, ESS 7% 11% 37

38 M$ M$ LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS CAGR 216/ % per year in Volume Cell: +7% per year in value Pack: +8% per year in value Li-ion cells M$, Worldwide, Industrial, ESS Auto, E- bus China Auto, e- bus Excl. China Electronic devices CAGR 15/25 11% 11% 12% 8% % Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, : medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy

39 MWh TAKEAWAYS Battery Market CAGR = +6% / Li-ion>+1% Li-ion battery is driven today by Automotive & Industrial applications In 212, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Liion for HEV P-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 15 B$ market in B$ in 22 & 38 B$ in 225 with high numbers in China (216: US$ 3,6 Billion for xev and US$ 4,8 Billion for xe-buses) EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 3% of the auto sales in 22 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 22 Micro-hybrid will achieve >5% in 22/25 Lead acid battery will be the first market in 225 in volume, but Li-ion market will be higher than Lead acid from 22. A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 1% in the next 15 years Lithium battery for other application (ESS, stationary, industrial ) will reach 1 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 years ESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 15 $/kwh RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE GWh 325 GWh 21 GWh B$ (Pack level) 3B$ 43B$ 628 GWh 63 B$ 847GWh 94 B$ (CAGR ) : Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, 39 LIB NiMH NiCd Lead Acid > 115 B$ 2, Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%) NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (+%) LIB for xev (+13%) LIB for * (+12%)

40 THANK YOU PHOTO Mike SANDERS AVICENNE ENERGY Phone: Mobile: 4