Hybrid and Electric Buses and Taxis : Forecasts, Opportunities, Players

Transcription

1 Hybrid and Electric Buses and Taxis : Forecasts, Opportunities, Players With suppliers, manufacturers and technology appraisal Dr Peter Harrop IDTechEx

2 Contents Page 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Definitions Manufacturing buses and taxis Hybrids are key for now Advantages of electric buses Basis for forecasting global bus sales by region Demand and production in China Adoption of electric buses vs electric cars Taxis Electric bus design is ahead of cars Radically different bus powertrains ABB intermittent overhead charging Bus statistics e-bus and bus backup information Preference for hybrid Total bus sales Production and Sales of China Light Bus Market in November Production and Sales of China Medium Bus Market in November Production and Sales of China Large Bus Market in November INTRODUCTION Electric vehicles in general Advantages of electric buses Highlights Definitions and trends Modest success of electric microbuses Convergence of hybrid and pure electric buses Convergence of trolley buses and free running electric buses CNG Preferred for Los Angeles Buses ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS AND TECHNOLOGIES History of electric buses Main components of hybrid bus power trains Superbus Fuel cells rescued by batteries OLEV technology for Korean buses in New pure electric school bus in USA 114

3 4. PROFILES OF SOME INTERESTING SUPPLIERS Alexander Dennis UK Anhui Ankai Automobile Company China BredaMenarinibus Vivacity Italy BYD China Daimler Germany Hino Motors and parent company, Toyota Japan IVECO Italy ISE Corp, USA MAN hybrid bus Germany: supercapacitor not battery Navistar USA New Flyer Industries Canada Nova Bus Canada Optare UK Proterra Ryobi Bus Japan TATA India Volvo Sweden Wrightbus UK Yutong Group Zhongtong Bus Holding Co., Ltd, China BUS DRIVE TRAINS Adura Systems USA Allison Transmission USA Azure Dynamics USA BAE Systems UK, USA BLK China Eaton USA ISE Corporation SIM Drive Corporation Japan SR Drives UK, Green Propulsion Belgium ThunderVolt USA ELECTRIC TAXI MANUFACTURERS AND TECHNOLOGIES Electric taxi projects in US, UK, Europe, China, Japan and Mexico China Mexico USA Mitsubishi taxi rollout in Japan Mitsubishi MiEV taxi Beijing China Changsha China 161

4 6.5. Changping District in Beijing China Dalian China Langfeng, Hebei China Huge order in the Philippines in Range-extended electric London cabs to be trialled in TRACTION BATTERIES, FUEL CELLS, RANGE EXTENDERS Traction batteries Who is winning in traction batteries and why The needs have radically changed It started with cobalt Great variety of recipes Other factors Check with reality Lithium winners today and soon Reasons for winning Lithium polymer electrolyte now important Winning chemistry Titanate establishes a place Laminar structure Niche winners Fluid situation FUEL CELLS Trials of fuel cell powered vehicles Fuel cell 2000 summary of fuel cell bus trials to Range extenders US DOE Grant Sept MARKET STATISTICS AND FORECASTS Past trends Commercial vehicles Buses historical trends School buses North America Past trend in bus production by country US population of buses by type Transport modes in India Motor vehicle production by leading producers Global electric bus deliveries to start of Forecasts to Global demand for electric buses and taxis Manufacturing buses and taxis 214

5 9.10. Technology future Hybrids are key for now Future leading manufacturers Today s leading electric bus manufacturer Future leading user nation Buses and taxis a good launch pad for new technologies Global conventional and electric bus demand Advantages of electric buses Decade of the hybrid Liberty Electric Cars Basis for forecasting global bus sales by region Conventional and electric bus demand and production in China Adoption of electric buses vs electric cars Global electric vehicle manufacturers by application Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles by application Taxis Adoption of green taxis Electric vehicles in East Asia Total change 249 APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY 253 APPENDIX 2: INTRODUCTION TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES 271