Electric Transport in China

Transcription

1 Electric Transport in China CREATION OF A WORLD-LEADING INDUSTRY Robert Earley China Carbon Forum and MotionEco 5 December 2017 Oslo

2 The Context: China transport by 2030 China aims to develop an efficient and clean, green, low-carbon, fast, convenient and modern transport system with diverse transportation options, and reduced dependence on oil Made in China a policy to upgrade China s industrial development in all aspects including New Energy Vehicles, Advanced Information Technology, Automated Machinery and more

3 Strategies for Emission Reduction for China: Policy concepts for 2030 Potential Transport Emission Reduction by 2030 Implement new efficient technologies; 12% Reduce and Optimize Transport Demand; 30% Electicity, biofuel and natural gas; 18% Multimodal Travel Options; 40% Source: 13 th Five-Year Plan and 2030 Transport Energy Saving Targets. Energy Research Institute, March 2017

4 Electric Vehicles in China

5 Numbers: The Chinese Auto Industry Source: Statista and OICA

6 Numbers: Constant Growth

7 Numbers: Constant Growth

8 What cars are being sold?

9 Biggest Brands out of 169 EV car manufactuers!

10 Where are vehicles being sold?

11 10 cities, 1000 vehicles program 5 million cars by 2020! Policies: th 5-year Plan: Subsidy scale down

12 Subsidies Local subsidies could often double benefit to the buyer

13 Massive subsidies not without risk EV Car Annual sales reaching 530,000 Annual national subsidies reaching RMB 26.5bn / year for cars alone Including local subsidies for cars alone, total burden could amount to RMB 50+ billion per year It is not sustainable to maintain high subsidies

14 Massive subsidies not without risk 89 Full-size new EV buses destroyed by fire in May, 2017 Total losses amounted to about RMB 150m (~190m Norwegian Krone) Each bus received RMB 1m in subsidy (50% national, 50% local)

15 Nonfinancial benefits *Easier to acquire license plate *Do not face odd/even plate restrictions *Out-of-area license plates may drive freely in cities

16 Enough carrots: Now a stick New Policy to start in 2019: Passenger Vehicle Corporate Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credits Dual Management System For auto companies that produce or import more than 30,000 vehicles per year: Achieve 10% NEV points in 2019 Achieve 12% NEV points in 2020

17 Implementing NEV quotas through Corporate- Average Fuel Consumption Policy (CAFC) Target: Passenger vehicle manufacturers and importers since 2016 (Phase 4). Avg. Fuel consumption of all cars manufactured Target: Passenger vehicle manufacturers and importers of over 30,000 vehicles Effective: 2019 Offset to Zero` Source:

18 Implementing NEV quotas through Corporate- Average Fuel Consumption Policy (CAFC) Source:

19 The Big Question IS CHINA GOING TO BAN TRADITIONAL-POWERED VEHICLES?

20 Auto Companies are now On Notice : Make EVs or Perish (in China)

21 And where will they charge? China currently has 167,000 charging posts nationally, powered by China Grid, 800,000 by 2020 Charging posts are meant to be linked by internet to telematic systems Major cities in China have targets for charger installations

22 And where will they charge up? Not enough parking spots Building management will not take responsibility Old buildings cannot provide the power Not enough policy support

23 Battery Swapping Is Still on the Table BAIC offers battery swap model for taxis One of China s new EV companies, NIO, offers a batteryswap 7-seat luxury SUV

24 Chinese Taxi Fleets going EV Taiyuan 8,292 taxis Beijing 70,000 taxis Shenzhen 10,000 taxis

25 Or will they be fleets? Didi Chuxing is the largest ride share company in the world, with 450 million users and 21 million drivers Currently has 260,000 EVs in its fleet Aims to have 1 million EVs in its fleet by 2020 Rolling out Chang an NEVS automated vehicles Developing its own charging network to ensure charged vehicles

26 It s more than just passenger cars

27 Low speed EVs: More suitable choice?

28 And it s more than just the road

29 Last mile transport: Dockless shared bikes Dockless shared bike schemes, fueled by venture capital are flourishing Popular with all age groups Provides easy access to public transport Increase confidence of people that they don t need to buy a car Source: ChinaDialogue

30 Conclusions China wants to lead the world in EV production and technology Fits into its plans to lead in artificial intelligence, automated vehicles, 5g telecommunications and clean transportation There are many forms and opportunities for electric transportation, and sales are not the key figure now, but the policy ecosystem and path to dominance