Positioning High-speed Rail to Lower Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, & Transportation Costs

Transcription

1 International Workshop on High-speed Rail Planning and Operations 30 October 2015 Washington, DC Positioning High-speed Rail to Lower Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, & Transportation Costs MIKHAIL V. CHESTER A S S I STANT PROFESSOR CIVIL, ENVIRONMEN TAL, & SUSTA I N A BLE ENGINEERING A R I ZONA STAT E UNIVERSITY HSR.TRANSPORTATIONLCA.ORG

2 Image source: California High Speed Rail Authority Mikhail Chester Arizona State University Slide 4

3 Today Sacramento San Francisco Los Angeles Phase 1: San Francisco to Los Angeles Phase 2: Sacramento to San Diego San Diego

4 Life Cycle Assessment Mode Shifting Emerging Technologies Emerging Fuel Mixes Mikhail Chester Arizona State University Slide 6

5 Life Cycle Assessment VEHICLES (Manufacturing & Maintenance) INFRASTRUCTURE (Construction, Maintenance, Rehabilitation, & Operation) ENERGY PRODUCTION (Primary fuel extraction, Processing, & Transport) SUPPLY CHAINS Mikhail Chester Arizona State University Slide 7

6 Transportation Life Cycle Assessment VEHICLES Manufacturing Maintenance INFRASTRUCTURE Material production Construction activities Maintenance Rehabilitation ENERGY PRODUCTION SUPPLY CHAINS Video frame source: California High Speed Rail Authority Mikhail Chester Arizona State University Slide 9

7 Transportation Life Cycle Assessment VEHICLES Manufacturing Maintenance INFRASTRUCTURE Material production Construction activities Maintenance Rehabilitation ENERGY PRODUCTION SUPPLY CHAINS Video frame source: California High Speed Rail Authority Mikhail Chester Arizona State University Slide 11

8 Transportation Life Cycle Assessment VEHICLES Manufacturing Maintenance INFRASTRUCTURE Material production Construction activities Maintenance Rehabilitation ENERGY PRODUCTION SUPPLY CHAINS Video frame source: California High Speed Rail Authority Mikhail Chester Arizona State University Slide 13

9 Transportation Life Cycle Assessment VEHICLES Manufacturing Maintenance INFRASTRUCTURE Material production Construction activities Maintenance Rehabilitation ENERGY PRODUCTION SUPPLY CHAINS Video frame source: Arizona State University W.P. Carey School of Business Mikhail Chester Arizona State University Slide 15

10 Today Sacramento San Francisco Los Angeles Phase 1: San Francisco to Los Angeles Phase 2: Sacramento to San Diego San Diego

11 System Boundary Life Cycle Grouping Automobiles/Buses Air Rail Vehicle Manufacturing Operation Maintenance Infrastructure Vehicle Manufacturing Battery Manufacturing Transport to Point of Sale Propulsion Idling Typical Maintenance Tire Replacement Battery Replacement Aircraft Manufacturing Engine Manufacturing APU / Startup / Taxi Out / Takeoff / Climb Out / Cruise / Approach / Landing / Taxi In Aircraft Maintenance Engine Maintenance Construction Roadway Airport Runway/Taxiway/Tarmac Train Transport to Point of Sale Propulsion Idling Typical Train Maintenance Train Cleaning Flooring Replacement Track Station Operation Roadway Lighting Herbicide Use Airport Energy Runway Lighting Deicing Fluids Ground Support Equipment Maintenance Roadway Maintenance Airport Runway/Taxiway/Tarmac Track, Station, and Parking Lighting Herbicide Use Train Control Miscellaneous (Escalators, Equipment) Track and Station Maintenance Parking Curbside Parking Airport Parking Dedicated Parking Energy Production Extraction, Processing, & Distribution Gasoline/Diesel/Natural Gas Extraction, Processing, & Distribution Jet Fuel Extraction, Processing, & Distribution Raw Fuel Extraction and Processing, Electricity Generation, Transmission & Distribution

12 Environmental Indicators Energy Air Emissions SO X Respiratory irritant, acid deposition CO Asphyxiant NO X Respiratory irritant, smog VOC Photochemical smog, cancerous PM Respiratory and cardiovascular damage Greenhouse Gases CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O Others Water, labor, costs, toxics, hazardous, etc. Energy Inputs Process Emission Outputs Human Health and Environmental Impact Potentials Respiratory: SOx, NOx and PM 2.5 Acidification: SOx and NOx Photochemical Smog Formation: CH 4, CO, VOC, and NOx Eutrophication Potential Impact Potentials Mikhail Chester Arizona State University Slide 18

13 Uncertainty Future vehicle technologies Future energy mixes Ridership uncertainty produces a range in per-pkt performance Challenges: Adoption period, full adoption (typical peak and off-peak) Without a strong understanding of ridership, breakeven points can be more illustrative of environmental tradeoffs Mikhail Chester Arizona State University Slide 19

14 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Grams CO 2 e per PKT mpg Sedan 5 1 Future WECC-RPS, 670 Seats Boeing Vehicle Operation Vehicle Manufacturing Vehicle Maintenance Vehicle Insurance Infrastructure Construction Infrastructure Operation Infrastructure Maintenance Infrastructure Parking Infrastructure Insurance Energy Production Mikhail Chester Arizona State University Slide 20

15 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Grams CO 2 e per PKT 35mpg Sedan PHEV60 55mpg Sedan Future WECC-2010, 670 Seats Future WECC-RPS, 1200 Seats Future WECC-RPS, 670 Seats Future WECC-RPS, 400 Seats Future WECC-2040, 670 Seats 80/20 Wind/Solar, 670 Seats Boeing 737 Legacy Boeing Bombardier CS300-ER Vehicle Operation Vehicle Manufacturing Vehicle Maintenance Vehicle Insurance Infrastructure Construction Infrastructure Operation Infrastructure Maintenance Infrastructure Parking Infrastructure Insurance Energy Production Mikhail Chester and Arpad Horvath, 2012, High-speed Rail with Emerging Automobiles and Aircraft Can Reduce Environmental Impacts in California s Future, Environmental Research Letters 7(3), doi: / /7/3/

16 Human Health and Environmental Impact Potentials per PKT Greenhouse Gases (grams CO 2 eq) 35mpg Sedan Future WECC-RPS, 670 Seats Boeing Respiratory Effects (mg PM 2.5 eq) 35mpg Sedan Future WECC-RPS, 670 Seats Boeing Acidification (grams H+ moles eq) 35mpg Sedan Future WECC-RPS, 670 Seats Boeing Smog Formation (tonnes O 3 eq) 35mpg Sedan Future WECC-RPS, 670 Seats Boeing Vehicle Operation Vehicle Manufacturing Vehicle Maintenance Vehicle Insurance Infrastructure Construction Infrastructure Operation Infrastructure Maintenance Infrastructure Parking Infrastructure Insurance Energy Production Mikhail Chester and Arpad Horvath, 2012, High-speed Rail with Emerging Automobiles and Aircraft to Reduce Environmental Impacts in California's Future, Environmental Research Letters, 7(3), doi: / /7/3/

17 Long-run per PMT Rankings Impact Potential End-use Energy Greenhouse Gases Respiratory Effects Acidification Smog Formation Eutrophication Ranking Auto HSR Air Lowest Middle Highest Mikhail Chester Arizona State University Slide 23

18 Footprinting (per PMT) Consequential (Corridor Effects) PMT Mikhail Chester and Megan Smirti Ryerson, 2014, Grand Challenges for High-speed Rail Environmental Assessment in the United States, Transportation Research Part A, 61, pp , doi: /j.tra Mikhail Chester Arizona State University Slide 24

19 Greenhouse Gas Payback in Million Tonnes CAHSR Authority Business Plan Medium Forecast (25) (20) (15) (10) (5) - 5 Payback Sensitivity (10) (5) - 5 Decade 1 Decade 2 Decade 3 Decade 4 Decade AUTO HSR AIR H: 33m M: 26m L: 20m 15m 10m Decade 6 Decade 7 Decade 8 Decade 9 Decade m Mikhail Chester and Arpad Horvath, 2012, Highspeed Rail with Emerging Automobiles and Aircraft to Reduce Environmental Impacts in California's Future, Environmental Research Letters, 7(3), doi: / /7/3/

20 High-speed Rail Aviation Aircraft Manufacturing Aircraft Operation Infrastructure Construction GSE Electricity Source Infrastructure Ridership Vehicle

21 Midsize (670 Seat) Trains CAHSR Impact Reduction Strategies GHG Emissions in kg CO 2 eq/vkt NOx Emissions in g/vkt WECC-2010 WECC-RPS 12% 22% WECC-RPS (Emission Control) SCM 17% SR 41% 100% Renewables SCM 69% SR 61% Vehicle Operation Vehicle Manufacturing Vehicle Maintenance Vehicle Insurance Infrastructure Construction Infrastructure Operation Infrastructure Maintenance Infrastructure Parking Infrastructure Insurance Mikhail Chester and Arpad Horvath, 2012, High-speed Rail with Emerging Automobiles and Aircraft to Reduce Environmental Impacts in California's Future, Environmental Research Letters, 7(3), doi: / /7/3/ Mikhail Chester Arizona State University Slide 27

22 Today 2040 without HSR 2040 with HSR Auto VMT 324 billion 517 billion 511 billion Air VMT 65 million 107 million 80 million

23 Cost of GHG Reduction ($/tonne CO 2 e) Cost-effectiveness of GHG Reductions in California 4,000 2, ,000-4,000-6,000-8,000-10,000 CAHSR CAHSR Business Plan Independent Study Orange BRT Gold LRT Bike/Ped Pathway Public Capital Cost Public Operating Subsidy User Costs Net Juan Matute and Mikhail Chester, 2015, Cost-effectiveness of Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from High-speed Rail and Urban Transportation Projects in California, Transportation Research Part D, 40, doi: /j.trd Mikhail Chester Arizona State University Slide 29

24 hsr.transportationlca.org mikhailchester