Overview Air Qualit ir Qualit Impacts of

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1 Air Quality Impacts of Expanded Use of Ethanol National Association of Clean Air Agencies Fall Membership Meeting October 28, 2007 Bob Fletcher, Chief Stationary Source Division California Environmental Protection Agency Air Resources Board 1

2 Overview Air Quality Impacts of Low-Level Level Ethanol/Gasoline Blends Air Quality Impacts of E85 Blends Ethanol and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard Summary 2

3 Air Quality Impacts of Low-Level Level Ethanol/Gasoline Blends 3

4 Properties of Ethanol Octane rating of 115 Energy content about 2/3 of gasoline Blending RVP of 18 psi To allow ethanol blending, volatile hydrocarbon components of about 5 percent by volume have to be removed High affinity for water Phase separates out of gasoline when in contact with water 4

5 Emission Effects of Low Level ETOH in Gasoline Reduces exhaust HC and CO emissions Reduces potency-weighted toxics emissions Increases NOx emissions i Increases RVP by about 1 psi Increases HC emissions i from commingling Increases HC permeation emissions 5

6 Phase 2 California Reformulated Gasoline Program Comprehensive specifications for gasoline RVP Sulfur Aromatic Hydrocarbons Oxygen Olefins T50 T90 Benzene Substantial reductions in HC, NOx, sulfur, and potency-weighted toxics MTBE oxygenate of choice; limited ETOH Almost all gasoline produced using the California Predictive Model 6

7 California Phase 3 Reformulated Gasoline Program Adopted in 1999; amended in 2002 Implemented MTBE ban in 2004 Facilitated increased use of ethanol Updated predictive model to include ethanol effects among other revisions Legislative mandate to ensure no net impacts pactso on emissions sso s with useo of ETOH Directed staff to investigate impacts of ethanol on permeation emissions 7

8 Emission Effects Mitigated Using the Predictive Model Increase in evaporative emissions offset by decreasing volatility of gasoline blendstock by about 1 psi NOx increase offset by decreasing the sulfur content 8

9 Comingling When gasoline with ETOH is mixed with gasoline without ETOH, RVP increases RVP increase results in potential for higher evaporative emissions Comingling addressed through CARB requirement to lower the RVP of gasoline blendstocks by 0.1 psi 9

10 Status of CaRFG in 2004 Almost all gasoline contained 6% ethanol Commingling not an issue Almost all gasoline produced using the California Predictive Model Average eagesu sulfur u content t about 10 ppmw 10

11 Permeation Emissions Study Completed in 2004 Coordinating Research Council concluded that E10 increases permeation emissions by 65% Compared to MTBE-containing i fuel Studies for on-road motor vehicles only Permeation increases evaporative emissions by allowing fuel molecules to pass through the materials of a source s fuel system 11

12 CaRFG3 Amendments Amendments approved in June 2007 Updated the California Predictive Model Permeation increase associated with ethanol use from on-road motor vehicles mitigated Final implementation date by 2010 Must begin mitigating permeation emissions by 2010 by fuel formula or alternative ti approach Commitment to revise certification fuel specification to include ETOH 12

13 Estimated Permeation Increase On-Road Motor Vehicles (High Ozone Days) Year (tons/day) Source: EMFAC

14 Updates to the Predictive Model Incorporated permeation increase Added new emissions test data Updated reactivity adjustment factors Updated the vehicle age distribution to reflect 2015 vehicle fleet Updated the CO model Adjusted application of RVP Limit 14

15 Effect of Predictive Model Updates Relative to previous model: Permeation emissions increase of 12.1 tons per day based on 2015 now included Emissions of ozone-forming VOCs and CO are more sensitive to oxygen content Very low sulfur has more effect on reducing NOx from newer vehicles Net effect is that permeation emissions from on-road sources can be mitigated through changes in the fuel formula 15

16 Impact on Fuel Producers Existing fuel formulas will have to be modified to mitigate the permeation increase Producers likely to increase ethanol use from 6% to 10% Producers likely to reduce sulfur content $1 billion capital investments necessary to produce compliant fuel Some refiners can produce compliant fuel with minor modifications Pipeline operators need to add ethanol capacity 16

17 Effect on Off-Road Sources Estimated exhaust and evaporative emission impacts using 10% ethanol blends in 2010 Reduces exhaust HC and CO emissions by about 16 to 22 tons/day Potentially increases permeation emissions by about 16 to 42 tons/day Increases NOx emissions 1 to 2 tons/day Limited data set available (2 lawnmower studies by ARB/one U. S. EPA study) 17

18 Ethanol Off-Road Test Programs Test program at SwRI ($500K) to assess emissions i Exhaust/evap tests on lawnmowers, trimmers, pleasure craft, motorcycles and ATVs Coordinate with on-going ARB test program If necessary, must mitigate emission increases 18

19 U.S. EPA Test Program Assess exhaust impacts from E0, E10 and E85 blends in 19 Tier 2 vehicles Testing with E15 or E20 blends dependent on DOE funding 23 fuel blends with property variations in T50, T90, RVP and aromatics Two test temperatures at 50 o F and 75 o F THC, NMHC, NMOG, CO, CO 2, NOx, NO 2, ethanol and PM emissions 19

20 Air Quality Impacts of E85 Blends 20

21 E85 Background E85 is a blend of 70-83% ethanol and 17-30% gasoline Over 240, flexible fuel vehicles capable of using E85 in CA Limited retail availability (currently only one retail station in CA - San Diego) 21

22 Emission Effects of E85 No emission impacts from use of E85 in flex fuel vehicles No impact on permeation emissions (CRC E St Study) 22

23 E85 Research Programs E85 Demonstration Program -a joint venture between ARB, Caltrans, Chevron, General Motors, Pacific Ethanol, CEC, and other state agencies CRC E-80 Program - evaluate effects of varying blends gasoline and E85 on emissions from flex-fuel fuel vehicles 23

24 E85 Demonstration Program Objectives: Identify potential compatibility and performance issues with vehicles and storage and dispensing equipment Evaluate vehicle emissions One year program 50 flex fuel vehicles up to 100,000 gallons Ends November

25 E85 Demonstration Program (continued) Report due January 2008 Identified need to revise CARB volatility specification for E85 Blending of ethanol and gasoline blendstocks at terminals results in E85 not meeting current volatility requirements Effectively eliminates terminal blending of E85 Vehicle testing program to be completed Fall

26 CRC E-80 Study Exhaust emissions testing on 7 vehicles Evaporative emissions testing on 4 vehicles 4 fuels: E6, E85, and 2 intermediate blends Results probably at least a year away 26

27 Alternative Fuels Incentives Program $5,467,000 was awarded under this program to promote E85 as follows: CleanFUEL USA $400,000. Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District $3.5 million. Community Environmental Council $580, RTC Fuels, LLC dba Pearson Fuels $803,000. City of Tulare $106, UC Davis $70,000. Los Angeles County Internal Services Dept. $8,

28 Alternative Fuels Incentive Program Sites 28

29 Assembly Bill 1007 CEC and ARB to prepare a State plan to increase use of alternative fuels Full fuel cycle analysis conducted (GHGs, Criteria Pollutants, and Toxics) Include recommendations for policies and financial i incentives to promote alternative ti fuels Plan to be considered on October 31,

30 Assembly Bill 118 Requirements Governor signed AB 118 on 10/14/07 CEC to develop a program to promote advancing alternative and renewable fuels and clean vehicle technologies CARB to create and administer an Air Quality Improvement e Program that would fund projects related to alternative and renewable fuels and innovative vehicle technologies Funded annually through

31 Ethanol and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard 31

32 Governor s Executive Order S-3-05 By 2010, reduce GHGs to 2000 emission levels By 2020, reduce GHGs to 1990 emission i levels l By 2050, reduce GHGs to 80% below 1990 levels 32

33 Governor s Executive Order S January 2007 Set a statewide goal to reduce the carbon intensity of California s transportation fuels by at least 10 percent by 2020 Goal will be accomplished by establishing a Low Carbon Fuel Standard ( LCFS ) for transportation fuels sold in California. i 33

34 Rationale for LCFS Required to help meet the GHG reduction goals of AB 32 Executive Order S directed ARB to determine if a LCFS can be adopted as a discrete early action measure June 21, 2007 hearing, the Board approved the LCFS to be one of the discrete early actions measures 34

35 LCFS Schedule 2007 University of California completes LCFS study with CEC & ARB Conduct LCFS workshops Early 2008 Initiate draft regulatory language Fall 2008 Regulatory package completed End of 2008 LCFS regulation submitted to the Board for consideration 2009 Regulation submitted to Office of Administrative Law Implementation ti 35

36 LCFS Workgroups Policy and Regulatory Development Lifecycle Analysis Compliance and Enforcement Environmental and Economic 36

37 Ethanol and LCFS Implementation of LCFS will require the use of alternative fuels Ethanol may play a critical role in meeting the LCFS targets The amount and type of ethanol will depend on the lifecycle analysis of various ethanol pathways 37

38 Life Cycle GHG Impacts of Various Ethanol Pathways (from AB 1007) Note: This illustration does not include all low carbon fuels, such as hydrogen or electricity Gasoline (Shale) Gasoline (Tar Sands) Gasoline Ethanol (Corn Coal) e equivalent lb bs CO2/gal gasolin Ethanol (Today) Ethanol (Corn NG) Ethanol (Corn Biomass) Ethanol (Cellulose) Ethanol (Corn Biomass CCD) Ethanol (Cellulose CCD) Source: NRDC 38

39 Ethanol GHG Benefits Current corn based ethanol estimated to have about a 10-20% lower carbon intensity (from AB 1007 work) These results are controversial At 10% expected blending level in 2010, only a 1-2% lower carbon intensity ty possible Requires cellulosic blends to be produced in significant quantity to impact lowering carbon intensity of ethanol 39

40 Life Cycle Issues Land use (sustainability) Co-Products Default values Uncertainty of values Fuel Production pathways Environmental justice 40

41 Summary California gasoline headed towards 10 percent ethanol E-85 demonstration program and specification development underway LCFS will facilitate large volumes of low carbon intensity ethanol into California fuels AB 32, AB118, AB 1007, and LCFS will help to preserve California s air quality and to mitigate global climate change 41

42 More Information Climate Change Portal Low Carbon Fuel Standard AB 1007 information gov/ab1007/ 42