Power Transmission National and International Perspectives
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1 Power Transmission National and International Perspectives Energy storage conference a must for successful conversion to green energy ATV conference at DTU Anders Bavnhøj Hansen, ABH@Energinet.dk Energy Analysis Energinet.dk Power Transmission - National and International Perspectives
2 Denmark situated in a windpower area Energinet.dk TSO for power and gas-systems in DK Electricity transmission Gas transmission Power Transmission - National and International
3 $/barrel Energy system performance evaluated by simulation Energy ressource Energy system Energy service Wind Solar Biomass Natural gas 160, Fossil 140, oil Coal Etc 120, 100, 80, 60, 40, 20, 0, Gasbehandling Windvariation Historisk oliepris Oil-price Import el Vind Bølge Bio, affald mv. Kul Naturg Olie Import Bio Ethanol Gas Kraftvarme Anaerob Electricity El-system Fjern- og blokvarme systemer Gas-systemer (metan/syntesegas/h2) Gaslagre Elektrolyse Heat Flytransport Central varmep. Gasses Liqued fuels Decentral varmep. Termisk forgasnin Flydende brændstoffer (Benzin, Diesel, Metanol, DME etc.) Varmep Kedel EV ICE/FC Export el El-proces lys, it, køl Bygn opvarmn. Sol- Procesvarme Vejtransport Banetransport Søtransport Building heating Proces-heat Cooling Light, IT etc. Transport Sustainable ressources Integrated energy system Robust, flexible and efficient Minimised, low and stable costs Total performance for system evaluated (economic and technical analysis) System property to damp step on ressource prices (low -faktors) Price inkl. hedging = Price excl. hedging + Price hedging = Price exc. hedging + n x (Ressource price hedging Ressource price excl. hedging) SIFRE and perspectives for city and national planning
4 RE-electricity ressources DK Socio-economic cost of energy 2030 excl. integration (LCOE) Onshore wind Offshore wind (>35 m) Bio CHP Power Transmission - National and International Perspectives
5 REgas prce (DKK/GJ) excl. cleaning and upgrade Ressources and cost for fuels (2030 if all biomass is allocated to fuels) Today primary used for heat and CHP Fuels demand today would require more than 30 GW extra windpower if power-to-gas should deliver Marg. bio etc. Slurry etc. Electrolysis (power 2 gas) Gasoil + CO2 (2035) Straw Waste mun. Energycrops Wood Consumption of fuels (gas+liquids) 2013 Natural gas + CO2 (2035) Fuel production (PJ) A significant demand for fuels electrification is needed to solve the fuel challenge Power Transmission - National and International
6 A scenario example towards REbased energy supply P2G HP HP Industry- HP EV/PHEV Power Transmission - National and International Perspectives
7 Use of transmission system to balance wind/solar Use of transmission system to balance fluctuating power production 2,3 TWh Gas storage (11 TWh methan-gas) Energy input to power-to-gas Interconnectors (MW) Accumulated (GWh) District heat+storage Indivi. heat pump El- og plugin hybrid case 2035 Transmission system: Interconnectors yearly accumulated energy in 2035 (2,3 TWh) Power Transmission - National and International
8 Analysis of 10 years wind/solar data for DK and North Europe Used in scenario 2035 Maksimum average residual consumption in periods 8 7 Extreme december week with low wind/solar Sammenhængende periode på 1 uge med højeste residualforbrug Consumption 6 5 W 4 3 Forbrug Landvind Havvind Kystnære Sol 2 1 Wind+Solar 0 2. kl kl kl kl kl kl kl. 00 Start: Onsdag d. 12. december 2007 kl. 12 Residualconsumption = Consumption wind solar (wave) Power Transmission - National and International
9 Windpower in North sea region in a week with Worst case i DK Wind intensity index from 12/12 kl and 7 days ahead GW 4 3 Sammenhængende periode på 1 uge med højeste residualforbrug Power consumption (DK) Forbrug Landvind Havvind Kystnære Sol 2 1 Wind and solar (DK) kl kl kl kl kl kl kl. 00 Start: Onsdag d. 12. december 2007 kl. 12 Andel af effekt Essential to use the geographical spread of windpower 0-0,14 0,14-0,33 0,33-0,55 0,55-0,81 0,81-1 Power Transmission - National and International Perspectives
10 Flexible consumption as ancillary service and grid backup (n-1) Flexible consumption analysed as grid reserve (n-1) Flexible consumption as grid reserve can increase the use of transmission (long horizon solution) Wind and solar (blue) Total power consumption (red) -flexible consumption (green) Flexible consumption as grid reserve Flexible consumption as ancillary service Demand for ancillery service (5 min interval) Flexible consumption also essential as: - Grid reserve (TSO/DSO) - Ancillery services - Intraday balancing DK Energy concept 2030
11 European Scenario Framework in the analysis ENTSO-E Visions EU e-highway Scenarios 2050 A framework of international scenarios used to evaluate robustness of strategic choices Energy concept 2030
12 Wind and solar in European ehighway scenarios towards 2050 Obs: More than 100 GW wind-power in North Sea region! A need for transmission grid to integrate RE in Europe wind solar demand 100%RES Big&Market Small & local 100 GW 50 GW 10 GW The figure shows the average demand for three scenarios in 2050, in comparison to the installed RES capacities (solar and wind). With significant amount of renewables, the RES generation capacities exceed the average demand. As a result, during period of high RES generation, it is necessary either to export, either to store, or to curtail the generation. Source: Final draft ehighway scenarios Power Transmission - National and International Perspectives
13 European transmission grid reinforcement towards 2050 An example from ehighway scenarios 100% RES electricity Fossil & nuclear >100 GW windpower installed in North Sea region! Storage capacities More transmission to integrate wind- and solar A need for more storage capacity (hydro etc.) Power Transmission - National and International The addtional storage capacities proposed by the project concern only pump-storage
14 Summing up The vision is to make the total energy system in DK independent of fossil fuels, and to make it competitive with a fossil reference A high degree of electrification and much more windand solar will be essential in DK and in Europe EU A strong transmission grid is essential for balancing huge amount of fluctuating wind- and solar. Flexible demand (EV/HP/P2G) can enhance use of transmission (grid-reseve n-1) and ancillary service There is a high need for fuel production from biomass and P2G. A need to integrate power/gas/fuel/heat to solve this challenge. A need for cooperation between Universities, Industry and Utilities (TSO/DSO) in RD&D projects to pave the way for the energy system development Power Transmission - National and International
15 Thank you for attention Link: Power Transmission - National and International Perspectives
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