新能源汽车燃料和材料全生命周期的 能源和环境影响研究 Full Life-cycle Energy and Environmental Impacts of New Energy Vehicles in China

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1 新能源汽车燃料和材料全生命周期的 能源和环境影响研究 Full Life-cycle Energy and Environmental Impacts of New Energy Vehicles in China 吴烨 Ye Wu 清华大学环境学院 School of Environment, Tsinghua University 2015 绿色制造 未来的钢铁与汽车国际研讨会 2015 年 11 月 17 日, 重庆

2 中国正在快速进入汽车时代 : 挑战和机遇? Leading auto market: challenges or opportunities? 国内外多项研究均显示 :2020 年我国汽车保有量将达到 亿辆,2030 年达到 亿辆!2025 年前后将成为全球汽车保有量最大的国家! Total automobile population will continue to increase rapidly, and will reach million in 2020, and million in Total vehicle stock (million) Wu et al.(2011b), High Wu et al.(2011b), Mid Wu et al.(2011b), Low Huo and Wang(2012), High Huo and Wang(2012), Low Wang et al.(2011) Ou et al.(2010) Historical trend

3 当前中国东部机动车排放强度远高于发达国家 Vehicular emission intensities in Eastern China are much higher than those in developed countries NO X (tons/km 2 ) VOC (tons/km 2 )

4 新能源汽车在中国的发展正在提速 New energy vehicles are penetrating in China

5 新能源汽车在中国的发展正在提速 New energy vehicles are penetrating in China Market share of 2015 sales The growth of PHEV/BEV in China is speeding since 2014 due to support of several policies nationwide and locally. Currently about 40 demo cities/city clusters are involved and soon all other cities will follow.

6 中国电动车市场与其他国家的比较 EV market in China compared with other developed countries Market share growth in selected countries PHEV/BEV sales target ( ) EVI, 2015 IEA, 2013 Most countries NOW are in early stage for PHEV/BEV, and many studies envision a fast growth for BEV/PHEV for the next decade. The total sales worldwide in 2014 are 0.3 million, which will rise to 6 million in Chinese annual sales increase to 1.5 million and total stock rises to 5 million in 2020 based on IEA forecast.

7 针对新能源汽车的能源环境影响分析需从车用燃料和车用材料两个层面进行全面的生命周期评估 LCA must be used to fully evaluate energy and environmental impacts of new energy vehicles Petroleum Gasoline Diesel Coal NG Nuclear Biomass Hydro, Solar, etc. Electricity

8 新能源汽车 车用燃料 - 车用材料 - 车辆运行 全生命周期分析需要海量的基础数据支撑 LCA needs extensive data related to fuel, material and usage 车用燃料上游 (Well-to-Tank, WTT) 能耗和排放数据库 电力生产过程 : 区域电力构成和火力发电效率 电力生产过程 : 关键控制技术构成和污染物排放因子 原油开采和炼制过程 : 能源效率和排放因子 天然气开采 生产和运输过程 : 能源效率和排放因子 其它 : 关键原料和燃料的运输 储存等过程能耗和排放因子 车辆运行阶段 (Tank-to-Wheels, TTW) 能耗和排放数据库 传统汽油车 / 柴油车 : 分标准燃油经济性和污染物排放因子 HEV/PHEV/EV: 燃油经济性改善比例和污染物排放改善比例 其它 :CNG 公交车燃油经济性和排放因子 车用材料生命周期数据库 (Vehicle materials and components) 关键车用部件的材料构成 典型原材料开采和冶炼过程 : 钢铁 铜 铝 锂 镍 关键车用部件的生产过程 : 车用电池 ( 铅酸 镍氢和锂离子电池 ) 车用材料和车辆的回收利用过程的能耗

9 近期出台的一系列重要法规标准和规划将显著影响电动车生命周期能源和环境效益的评估 A series of important regulations and plans were released and their impacts to EVs need to be carefully examined 节能与新能源汽车产业发展规划 ( ) Industry plan for new-energy and energy saving vehicles, 第三 / 四阶段燃油经济性标准 Stage III/IV fuel economy standard 十二五 / 十三五总量控制目标 (NOX 和 SO2)12th and 13th fiveyear national emission control target for NOX and SO2 新修订的国家环境空气质量标准 New NAQQS 全国及各地大气污染防治行动计划 National and local air pollution control action plan 全国火电厂污染物排放标准 Emission limits for coal power plants 国五 / 国六汽油 / 柴油标准 Euro V/VI gasoline/diesel standard 国五 / 国六轻型车 / 重型车污染物排放标准 Euro V/VI emission standard for new light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles 中国制造 2025 Made in China 2025

10 上游电力生产过程的关键参数 Key parameters for upstream power generation in China 分区域电力构成 Electricity generation mix, 火电排放因子 Emission factor of thermal power, Electricity Generation Efficiency 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 煤电发电效率 Efficiency of coal power, %

11 上游车用材料和车用部件生产过程的关键参数 Key parameters for upstream vehicle materials and components production and assembly

12 上游车用材料和车用部件生产过程的关键参数 Key parameters for upstream vehicle materials and components production and assembly 锂,Lithium Lithium, a major component in Li-ion battery, produced from two major sources: spodumene and lake brine (especially the latter). The energy intensity (5.7GJ/ton) for Li production from lake brine is 28% lower than that from spodumene.

13 上游车用材料和车用部件生产过程的关键参数 Key parameters for upstream vehicle materials and components production and assembly Copper/Aluminum are key materials in all batteries (acting as conductors and covers) as well as in other major vehicle components. Energy intensity might vary significantly by different production methods. Recycled material production consumes much less energy than the virgin material production. 铜,Copper 铝,Aluminum

14 车辆运行阶段的关键参数 :1) 轻型车 Key parameters for vehicle usage: 1) light-duty vehicle 认证汽油车燃油经济性 Certificated fuel economy (FE) LDPV fuel economy (L/100km) LDPV market share LDPV fuel economy Top10 Top20 Top30 Top40 Top50 Top60 LDPV sales ranking HEV FE LDPV market share(%) 7.5L/100km 实际道路汽油车燃油经济性 On-road FE Fuel economy LDPV (L/100km) Scenario 1 Scenario FE for PHEV and BEV

15 车辆运行阶段的关键参数 :2) 公交车 Key parameters for vehicle usage: 2) bus 多数电动巴士在满载且空调开启的综合电耗平均增加 20-30%, 并对应于单次续驶里程下降 17-21%; 总体而言, 空调开启影响要大于负载的影响 Electricity consumption for E-bus will increase by 20-30% with full-load and AC on compared with empty-load/ac off. 12 m bus A 12 m bus B 10 m bus 8 m bus

16 电动汽车推广对于改善石油能源安全意义重大 The promotion of EVs can greatly improve the oil energy security 轻型车 car 公交车 bus

17 电动汽车 CO 2 减排效益与上游电力构成 煤电技术 车辆燃油经济性等多因素强相关 The benefit of CO 2 emissions for EV are strongly relevant to generation mix, coal technology, fuel economy, etc. 轻型车 car 公交车 bus c) 珠三角 TTW WTT 轻型车 car 公交车 bus 0 ICEV CNGV HEV PHEV15 PHEV50 BEV ICEV CNGV HEV PHEV15 PHEV50 BEV ICEV CNGV HEV PHEV15 PHEV50 BEV ICEV CNGV HEV PHEV15 PHEV50 BEV CO2 排放 (g/km)

18 轻型纯电动车 CO 2 的盈亏平衡点 CO 2 breakeven of light-duty BEV vs. ICEV % 350 ICEV 325% CO 2 排放 g/km FE:8.7L/100km 发电效率 :34% 77% 86% 95% EV ICEV 350% 375% 400% 300% % 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 煤电比例 当发电效率为 34% 时 (2010 年水平 ): (1)BEV 的 FE 为 ICEV 的 300%: 盈亏平衡点的煤电比例为 77% 按照现在分地区电力构成, 华北, 东北, 华东煤电比例均高于 77%,ICEV 优于 BEV; 其他地区 BEV 优于 ICEV (2)BEV 的 FE 为 ICEV 的 350%: 煤电比例为 95% 时 ICEV 与 BEV 持平 除了华北的所有其他地区 BEV 优于 ICEV The CO 2 breakeven points between BEVs and ICEVs are relevant to several key parameters: fuel economy of ICEVs and BEVs, share of coal-fired power, and the generation efficiency of coal power. 18

19 目前部分车用材料的能耗较高, 未来需要重点控制 Those vehicle materials with high energy intensity need to pay special attention In general, rare earth, aluminum, graphite, cobalt, LiPF6 and lithium oxide have relatively higher fossil energy use than other materials. Among cobalt, nickel and manganese, cobalt is the leading metal in both fossil energy use and CO 2 emissions. The fossil energy use and CO 2 emissions of almost all materials will continue to decrease due to the technology improvement. This is especially true 19for those materials with high energy intensity (e.g., Al).

20 车用电池是电动车车用材料周期中能耗最高的部件 Battery is the biggest contributor to total energy use of vehicle material cycle for BEVs 20

21 目前纯电动车全生命周期的 CO 2 与传统汽油车相比不具减排优势, 但 2020 年后纯电动车减排优势趋于明显 Currently full life cycle CO 2 use for BEV is not better than gasoline car, but after 2020 BEV will be much better 21 All three electric vehicle technologies achieve savings in full life-cycle fossil energy use relative to ICEV. BEV will show more advantage in fossil energy use over ICEV in the future. At the current stage, BEV and PHEV50 could not achieve full life-cycle benefit in CO 2 emissions over ICEV. As technology improves in battery industry and more renewable power promotes in China, BEV will show advantage in CO 2 emissions over ICEV.

22 对于主要来自于车辆运行阶段的污染物 ( 例如 VOC), 电动汽车具有极佳的削减效益 For those air pollutants (e.g., VOC) primarily from vehicle usage, BEV is the best technology 轻型车 car 公交车 bus

23 对于主要来自于上游电力生产的污染物 ( 例如一次 PM 2.5 ), 电动汽车相比传统汽柴油车不具减排优势 For those air pollutants (e.g., primary PM 2.5 ) primarily from upstream power plants, BEV will be worse than ICEV a) 京津冀 TTW WTT 轻型车 car 公交车 bus 0.00 ICEV CNGV HEV PHEV15 PHEV50 BEV ICEV CNGV HEV PHEV15 PHEV50 BEV ICEV CNGV HEV PHEV15 PHEV50 BEV ICEV CNGV HEV PHEV15 PHEV50 BEV 轻型车 car 公交车 bus PM2.5 排放 (g/km)

24 对于 NO X, 纯电动公交车的推广可获得最佳的减排效益 ; 但轻型电动车减排效益主要取决于上游电力清洁化程度 BEV bus can achieve the best NO X reduction benefit; however, for BEV cars its NO X reduction are mainly relied on the upstream cleaner power. 轻型车 car 公交车 bus 轻型车 car 公交车 bus

25 初步研究显示 2030 年长三角地区大规模推广电动车可带来显著的 PM 2.5 浓度的削减效益 Extreme EV penetration has significant reduction effects on PM 2.5 concentration in the Yangtze River Delta Region in 2030 compared to the reference scenario (units in ug/m 3 ) 电动车推广基准情景 BAU-Reference EV scenario in YRD, January 3.2 (0.7, 7.0) 0.7 (-0.1, 2.2) -0.2 (-0.4, 0.0) 电动车推广极端情景 BAU-Extreme EV scenario in YRD, January 4.7 (0.9, 10.6) 1.8 (0.2, 4.9) -0.6 (-1.4, 0.1) Note: positive value means concentration reduction, negative means increase; mean (90% confidence interval)

26 主要结论和政策建议 (1) Conclusion and Policy Suggestion (1) 电动汽车推广对于改善石油能源安全意义重大 插电式混合动力车 (PHEV15/PHEV50) 可减少 40-50% 的石油消耗 纯电动车几乎不消耗石油 The promotion of EVs can greatly improve the oil energy security. PHEV15/PHEV50 can reduce 40-50% petroleum consumption BEV consume little oil

27 主要结论和政策建议 (2) Conclusion and Policy Suggestion (2) 电动汽车化石能源和 CO 2 减排效益与上游电力构成 煤电技术 车辆燃油经济性 车用材料等多因素强相关 电动汽车石油削减效益 > 化石能源削减效益 >CO 2 削减效益 在珠三角等清洁电力比例高的地区,PHEV/BEV 的化石能源和 CO 2 减排效益显著 ; 而在华北等煤电比例高的地区, PHEV/BEV 的化石能源和 CO 2 减排效益大打折扣 在我国煤电比例较高的地区, 近期 HEV 和较小电池的插电式混合动力车 ( 例如 PHEV15) 的化石能源和 CO 2 减排效益更佳 目前纯电车全生命周期 ( 燃料 + 材料 + 车辆运行 ) 的 CO 2 与传统汽油车相比不具减排优势, 车用电池材料的节能也需要予以关注 The benefit of fossil fuel use and CO 2 emissions for EV are strongly relevant to generation mix, coal technology, fuel economy, material energy efficiency, etc. Petroleum consumption benefit>fossil fuel use reduction>co 2 emissions reduction The fossil fuel and CO 2 reduction benefit are BETTER in the cleaner electricity regions, while WORSE in the higher coal-share regions The HEV and PHEV15 can achieve better reduction benefit on fossil fuel and CO 2 reduction in the near-term in higher coal share regions Currently, full life cycle CO 2 use for BEV is not better than conventional ICEV, the upstream energy saving such as for vehicle materials need to pay special attention

28 主要结论和政策建议 (3) Conclusion and Policy Suggestion (3) 新能源车推广初期 (2020 年前 ): 从削减石油消耗或从削减车辆运行阶段排放考虑可给予其超低至零排放车待遇 纯电动车 : 燃油经济性 CO 2 排放和污染物排放设为 0 插电式混合动力车 : 按照 AER 的不同综合设定其经济性和排放改善比例 但在新能源车大范围推广阶段 (2020 年后 ), 对新能源车能耗 CO 2 排放和污染物排放削减效益的评估需从生命周期的角度考虑, 并平衡能耗 CO 2 排放和污染物排放的关系 Before 2020: The BEVs could be treated as zero emission vehicle, considering the petroleum and emission reduction during TTW stage. BEV: The fuel consumption, CO 2 emission and air pollutant emissions are zero. PHEV: Set different reduction ratios for fuel economy and pollutant emissions based on the AER and VKT in China. After 2020: We should balance the energy use, CO 2 and pollutant emissions for new energy vehicles from the perspective of life cycle.

29 主要结论和政策建议 (4) Conclusion and Policy Suggestion (4) 电动车的推广对于削减 VOC 和 CO 效益极佳, 但是近期内会增加 SO 2 和一次 PM 2.5 排放, 针对 NO X 的减排效益则取决于车型和上游电力, 因此, 今后需要科学评估其对城市和区域的环境质量和人群健康的影响 电动汽车的推广必须同步推动 : 可再生清洁电力 ( 太阳能 风能等 ) 构成比例的显著提升 更高效煤电技术 ( 超超临界 IGCC 等 ) 构成比例的提升 更高效车用电池材料和其他车用部件材料技术的采用 在煤电后处理控制先进 (FGD/SCR/ 高效除尘联合 ) 的地区优先推动电动车 Promotion of BEV can reduce VOC and CO greatly, but will increase SO 2 and primary PM 2.5 in the near term. Therefore, a scientific evaluation of environmental and human health impacts of EVs in urban and regional scale needs to be conducted. The promotion of EV should: Increase renewable clean electricity (Solar energy and wind) Use high efficient coal power technology (e.g., ultra-supercritical and IGCC) Use high efficient vehicle material technologies In the regions with high efficient APCDs ( e.g., FGD/SCR/ESP/FF), promote EV preferentially

30 致谢 Acknowledgment

31 Thank you for your attention! Questions? 吴烨, 清华大学环境学院 Ye Wu, School of Environment, Tsinghua University