Infrastructure Disruptions: What if?

Transcription

1 Infrastructure Disruptions: What if? NGA Executive Conference R.L.Levitan, September 12, 2016

2 Agenda Recap of TETCO Incident on 4/29/16 What if? Potential Impacts on Winter and Summer Peak Day Near term outlook Highlights of EIPC Target 3 Gas/Electric Contingency Assessment Aliso Canyon Update: DOGGR / PHMSA review 2

3 3 TETCO Incident at Delmont

4 Spectra P/L Infrastructure 4 Source: Spectra Energy

5 Texas Eastern Incident Friday, April 29 8:13 am EDT, catastrophic failure near Salem Township, PA on the 30 Line 27 (PA-Jersey System) Shut-off at 9:22 am EDT Declaration of force majeure at noon EDT Initial PHMSA investigation found that external corrosion due to coating failure of the girth weld May 4, 2016: PHMSA issued a Corrective Action Order 5

6 Penn-Jersey System Lines Source: Spectra Energy 6

7 Time Critical Throughput Leidy Line Delmont Bedford Lambertville 7

8 PPL Interstate Supply Balance Lower Mt. Bethel & Martins Creek Transco Columbia Texas Eastern 8

9 Algonquin Supply Balance M&N Distrigas Tennessee Millennium Iroquois Tennessee Columbia Texas Eastern Transco Texas Eastern 9

10 New York Facilities System (NYFS) Supply Balance Tennessee Iroquois Transco Texas Eastern Transco Iroquois Iroquois Texas Eastern Transco Transco Transco 10

11 Texas Eastern and Algonquin Deliveries 11

12 Price Effects: Leading Indices $2.50 Texas Eastern M3 Millennium $2.00 Transco Zone 6 NY Dominon South Point $/MMBtu $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $ Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr 30 Apr 1 May 2 May 3 May 4 May 5 May 6 May 12

13 LDC Deliveries in PA, NJ and Downstate NY 13

14 Texas Eastern and Algonquin Generators Delmont Grays Ferry Lower Mt. Bethel & Martins Creek 14

15 Texas Eastern Deliveries to Connected Genco 15

16 Improved Gas Electric Coordination with PJM PJM Gas Electric Coordination Team performs daily operational risk assessment MOU w/ 9 pipelines solidified the sharing of information (FERC Order 787) Weekly operational calls to identify issues affecting reliability Changed DA Market Schedule to better align with pipeline nomination schedule Redefined Capacity Market product to incentivize fuel security 16

17 17 What if? Winter / Summer Peak Day

18 PJM Electric Peak Day Conditions Winter Peak: Jan 7, 2014 TETCO at capacity through Delmont & on Leidy Line TETCO deliveries to genco comparable to April 29, 2016 LDC firm service Summer Peak: July 28, 2015 TETCO below capacity TETCO deliveries to genco 275 MDth higher than April 29, 2016 Gas-fired genco (nonfirm) 18

19 Seasonal Demands (LDCs and Genco) 19

20 Texas Eastern Flows (Winter Peak Day) Leidy Line Delmont Bedford Lambertville 20

21 Effects on Algonquin (Winter Peak Day) Following the April event, receipts from Millennium, Tennessee, Iroquois, Distrigas and M&N increased On the winter peak day Millennium: Ramapo 79% utilized ~140 MDth/d available Tennessee: 200 Line 98% utilized, 300 Line 99% utilized Iroquois: Waddington 92% utilized ~85 Dth/d available M&N: Baileyville 99% utilized Distrigas: 1% utilized 21

22 Effects on NYFS (Winter Peak Day) Following the April event, receipts from Transco, Iroquois, and Tennessee increased On the winter peak day: Transco: OFO in effect, Station 515 (Leidy Line) 100% utilized, Capacity into Z6 97% utilized ~75 MDth/d available Iroquois: Waddington 92% utilized ~85 Dth/d available Tennessee: 300 Line 99% utilized 22

23 Effects on PPL Interstate (Winter Peak Day) Following the April event, receipts from Transco and Columbia increased On the winter peak day Transco OFO in effect, Station 515 (Leidy Line) 100% utilized Columbia: System-wide storage Critical Day OFO in effect 23

24 Texas Eastern Flows (Summer Peak Day) Leidy Line Delmont Bedford Lambertville 24

25 Effects on Algonquin (Summer Peak Day) Following the April event, receipts from Millennium, Tennessee, Iroquois, Distrigas and M&N increased On the summer peak day Millennium: Ramapo 88% utilized ~100 MDth/d available Tennessee: 200 Line 91% utilized, 300 Line 100% utilized ~80 MDth/d available Iroquois: Waddington 55% utilized ~475 MDth/d available M&N: No gas flowing from Canada Distrigas: No LNG sendout 25

26 Effects on NYFS (Summer Peak Day) 26 Following the April event, receipts from Transco, Iroquois, and Tennessee increased On the summer peak day Transco: Imbalance management requested to avoid OFO, Station 515 (Leidy Line) 100% utilized, Capacity into Z6 69% utilized ~700 MDth/d available Iroquois: Waddington 55% utilized ~475 MDth/d available Tennessee: 300 Line 100% utilized

27 Effects on PPL Interstate (Summer Peak Day) Following the April event, receipts from Transco and Columbia increased On the summer peak day Transco: Imbalance management requested to avoid OFO, Station 515 (Leidy Line) 100% utilized Columbia: Some restrictions in effect, but not widespread 27

28 Highlights: What if? April Incident: Pipeline workarounds were sufficient to mitigate disruptive effects for both core (LDC) and noncore generation loads Winter Peak Day: LDC load throughput, storage withdrawal patterns from Leidy & Oakford, high utilization on other pipelines would not support scheduled deliveries to genco shippers on TETCO and Algonquin Summer Peak Day: LDC load throughput, storage injection patterns at Leidy and Oakford, flow adjustments from other pipelines would likely support scheduled deliveries to genco shippers on TETCO and Algonquin 28

29 29 EIPC Gas Contingencies (Target 3)

30 EIPC Target 3 Gas-Side Contingencies (2018 Reference Case Winter Peak Day) 30

31 31 Aliso Canyon

32 SoCalGas Aliso Canyon Working gas storage = 86 Bcf; Daily withdrawal capability = 1.9 Bcf/d ~10,000 MW generation served: needed for bulk power security during the summer, LDC reliability during the winter 4.6 Bcf leaked from 10/23/2015-2/18/

33 Aliso Canyon Electric Generators 33

34 What s in store? CA DOGGR and PHMSA assessment of safety and security of Aliso Canyon Likely immediate restrictions on other CA fields when operational problems detected Near term grid security threats if temperatures hit mid-90 s in September Winter season constraints on LDCs if design temperatures experienced in peak heating season 2016 PIPES strengthen PHMSA review and accountability requirements 34