Mark Westhoff Director, Facility and Capacity Planning El Paso Western Pipelines

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1 El Paso Corporation Mark Westhoff Director, Facility and Capacity Planning El Paso Western Pipelines Capacity Reservation Factors October 22, 2008

2 Defining Our Purpose El Paso Corporation provides natural gas and related energy products in a safe, dependable, and efficient manner 2

3 Capacity Reservation Factors: Presentation Overview Introduction Description of Analysis Results Q&A 3

4 Introduction 4

5 Scheduling at Constant Rates Rate of Flow Time Flow constant Receipt equals delivery Capacity utilization = transport quantity 5

6 Managing Flow Variations Ratio of Instantaneous to Average Flow Drafting Packing Receipt Delivery "Withdrawal from pipe storage" "Injection to pipe storage" Out of pipe storage Receipt Quantity = Flowing Transport Daily Volume Withdrawal Injection Into pipe storage Hours 6

7 Total Pipeline Capacity Total Pipeline Capacity = Transport + Pipe Storage Transport capacity in the traditional sense Pipe Storage capacity to manage differences between receipt and delivery quantities Operations at full transport capacity No room for pipe storage Must have constant rates of flow 7

8 Scheduling Pipe Storage Space: HEEN Hourly Entitlement Enhancement Nomination Available for FT, FTH, NNTD and NNTH services Nominated by shipper HEEN allows shippers to manage their capacity Alternative: reserve hourly requirement 24/7 For FT-1 transactions Scheduled quantity = Flowing quantity (transport) + HEEN (pipe storage) 8

9 Scheduling Pipe Storage Space: CRN Capacity Reservation Nomination Component of FTH, NNTH services Automatically calculated Based on flowing nomination and service CRN = Capacity Reservation Factor multiplied by Transport Nomination Scheduled quantity = Flowing quantity (transport) + CRN (pipe storage) Duration at peak specified as part of service 9

10 Description of Analysis 10

11 Computer Models Advantica/Stoner transient simulations Facility configurations Mainlines and laterals With and without compression Lateral 10-inch single un-powered pipeline Mainline 30-inch pipeline single and looped Mainline compression on 50 mile spacing 11

12 Baseline Simple pipeline Constant rates of flow Receipts at one end; deliveries at other end Quantify full capacity 12

13 Study Assumptions Volume Rate (MMcf/d) Simulations: Example Volume Sets Delivery Quantity Receipt Quantity Hours 850 Simulation Assumptions Receipts constant volume rate constant pressure Delivery (load) duration curves Varied hourly over day Balanced with receipts daily Simulations: Example Pressures Reduced capacity until Receipt/delivery balanced Calculated Pressures Below MAOP Above delivery pressure Pressure (psig) MAOP Minimum Delivery Pressure Hours 13

14 Sensitivities Peak Hour and Duration Facilities Single line Looped lines Lateral line Mainline and lateral Service mix: Non-uniform rates vs. uniform rates Pressure ranges 14

15 Presentation of Results Capacity Reservation Nomination (CRN) equals Capacity Reservation Factor (CRF) multiplied by Transport Nomination Total nominated quantity equals (1+ CRF) * Transport Nomination 15

16 Making sense of all the data Capacity Reservation Factor vs Mileage (All Data Points) Capacity Reservation Factor Mileage 1.5P-4H-100V 1.5P-4H-150V 1.5P-4H-200V 1.5P-4H-300V 1.5P-5H-100V 1.5P-5H-150V 1.5P-5H-200V 1.5P-5H-300V 1.5P-12H-100V 1.5P-12H-150V 1.5P-12H-200V 1.5P-12H-300V 1.5P-16H-100V 1.5P-16H-150V 1.5P-16H-200V 1.5P-16H-300V 1.7P-4H-100V 1.7P-4H-150V 1.7P-4H-200V 1.7P-8H-100V 1.7P-8H-150V 1.7P-8H-200V 1.7P-12H-100V 1.7P-12H-150V 1.7P-12H-200V 1.7P-14H-100V 1.7P-14H-150V 1.7P-14H-200V 2P-4H-100V 2P-4H-150V 2P-4H-200V 2P-8H-100V 2P-8H-150V 2P-8H-200V 2P-12H-100V 2P-12H-150V 2P-12H-200V 3P-4H-100V 3P-4H-150V 3P-4H-175V 3P-8H-100V 3P-8H-150V 16

17 Presentation Format Example Capacity Reservation Factor CRF = Delivery Location 150% Peak hour 12-Hour Duration 250 Mi Miles from Delivery Location 17

18 Large percentage of small asset Example Storage Space Capacity Reservation Factor % Peak hour 12-Hour Duration Small percentage of large asset Miles from Delivery Location 18

19 Sensitivity: Duration of Peak Flow 4.00 Impact of Duration Peak Hour/Daily Average = Capacity Reservation Factor Mileage 4-Hour Duration 12-Hour Duration 16-Hour Duration 19

20 Sensitivity: Peak Hour 4.00 Impact of Peak Hour (Peak Hour/Daily Average = 1.5, 1.7, 2.0, 3.0) 4-hour Duration 3.50 Capacity Reservation Factor Mileage 1.5 Peak Hour 1.7 Peak Hour 2.0 Peak Hour 3.0 Peak Hour 20

21 Sensitivity: Service Proportions, Looped Lines Capacity Reservation Factor % Peak with 12 hour duration Nominal capacity: 558 MMcf/d Hourly service proportion: 100, 150, 200, 300 MMcf/d Mileage

22 A Different Presentation Format Example Example Case Length = 200 miles Duration at peak = 8 hours Capacity Reservation Factor CRF = 2.26 Peak Hour to Avg equals Ratio of Peak Hour to Daily Average 22

23 Sensitivity: Convergence Criteria Impact of Convergence Criteria (Hourly Volume 100 at 200 miles; 8-hr duration) Capacity Reser vation Factor Ratio of Peak Hour to Daily Average Original Pd Plus 10 Ps minus 10 Ps and Pd delta 10 23

24 Capacity Reservation Factors: 8-in Lateral Lateral Analysis 2.50 Capacity Reservation Factor Lateral Summary Length = 50 miles Diameter = 8 inch Capacity = MMcf/d Note: Similar results for 8 and 10-inch lines, no compression, 50 miles in length Ratio of Peak Hour to Daily Average Steady-State CRF Transient CRF 24

25 Capacity Reservation Factors: 10-in Lateral Lateral Analysis 2.50 Capacity Reservation Factor Lateral Summary Length = 50 miles Diameter = 10 inch Capacity = 32.8 MMcf/d Note: Similar results for 8 and 10-inch lines, no compression, 50 miles in length Ratio of Peak Hour to Daily Average Steady-State CRF Transient CRF 25

26 Impact of Duration at 100 Miles Capacity Reservation Factor Ratio of Peak Hour to Daily Average 4 hr duration 8 hr duration 12 hr duration 16 hr duration 100 miles 26

27 Impact of Duration at 200 Miles Capacity Reservation Factor Ratio of Peak Hour to Daily Average 4 hr duration 8 hr duration 12 hr duration 16 hr duration 200 miles 27

28 Impact of Duration at 300 Miles Capacity Reservation Factor Ratio of Peak Hour to Daily Average 4 hr duration 8 hr duration 12 hr duration 16 hr duration 300 miles 28

29 Impact of Duration at 400 Miles Capacity Reservation Factor Ratio of Peak Hour to Daily Average 4 hr duration 8 hr duration 12 hr duration 16 hr duration 400 miles 29

30 Moderating Capacity Reservation Factors Aggregate profile of similarly situated deliveries Smoothing effect Offsetting peaks Distribution of deliveries especially on east end No refill potential Space remains for packing and drafting Rigorous modeling assumptions Full load condition Receipts at one end of pipe, deliveries at other end 30

31 Example Modeled Profiles Modeled Profiles Ratio of Peak Rate to Daily Average Hours FTH-12 FTH-16 FTH-8 170% Case 31

32 Observed Profiles Observed Electric Generation and LDC Group Profiles Ratio of Hourly to Daily Average AM 10 AM 11 AM 12 PM 01 PM 02 PM 03 PM 04 PM 05 PM 06 PM 07 PM 08 PM 09 PM Hour of Day Elec Gen Summer 10 PM 11 PM 12 AM LDC Winter 01 AM 02 AM 03 AM 04 AM 05 AM 06 AM 07 AM 08 AM 32

33 Results with Observed Profiles Impact of Convergence Criteria (Hourly Volume 100 at 200 miles; 8-hr duration) Capacity Reser vation Factor LDC EG Ratio of Peak Hour to Daily Average Note: 8-hr Duration Set Original Pd Plus 10 Ps minus 10 Ps and Pd delta 10 33

34 Modeled Deliveries Delivery Modeled Supply

35 Aggregated Impact Actual Impact Delivery Delivery Delivery Delivery Supply

36 Distributed Deliveries Delivery Modeled: Full Load Full Length Supply Delivery Delivery Delivery Delivery Delivery Supply Actual: Progressive Unloading 36

37 Priorities 1 - Reliability of firm service 2 - Maximizing available capacity 37

38 Results 38

39 Presentation of Results Total nominated quantity equals Transport component plus pipe storage component Transport component is daily or flowing quantity Pipe Storage component is capacity reservation nomination (CRN) Capacity Reservation Nomination (CRN) = Capacity Reservation Factor (CRF) * Transport Nomination Total nominated quantity = (1+ CRF) * Transport Nomination Total Factor = 1+ CRF 39

40 Results Facilities required: Approximately 300 miles Capacity required Service New CRF New Total Old CRF Old Total FTH-3, NNTH FTH-12, NNTH FTH-16, NNTH FTH

41 Conclusions Capacity Reservation Factors Will be increased effective Dec. 1, 2008 Evident in capacity postings such as Operationally Available Capacity Possible future adjustments Service reliability Maximize available capacity 41

42 Questions?

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