2011 Special Reliability Assessment: Power Interdependency in the United States

Transcription

1 2011 Special Reliability Assessment: A Primer on the Natural Gas and Electric Power Interdependency in the United States John Moura

2 Highlights Key differences exists between gas and electricity producers Increased coordination and communication is needed Gas storage solutions diminish i i interdependency d issues Electric loads present unique challenges to gas operators Regional differences exist Future expansion of pipelines to accommodate electric sector growth 2 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

3 Gas Storage in North America 3 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

4 Gas Demand Growth by Sector 4 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

5 2010 US Gas Consumption no gas storage Significant potential retirements 5 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

6 What We ll Need Demand projected to increase by 55 to 65 percent by 2020; and potentially more than double by 2030 High, Likely, and Low Scenarios Electric Sector Gas Demand 45.0 (BCFD) High Case Base Case Low Case RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

7 What We Have Over 100 years of potential shale at current rates Uncertainty in environmental regulations will affect gas prices Total Potential U.S. Natural Gas Resources 2,000 (TCF) 1,836 1,898 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,321 1,200 1, ,003 1,001 1,028 1,067 1,038 1,091 1,127 1, Source: Potential Gas Committee RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

8 How We ll Get it There Natural Gas Pipeline Capacity Additions 8.3 BCFD of gas pipeline capacity built in last 10 years 24k miles of gaspipeline built in last 10 years Reference: Electric industry took 17 years to build 24k circuit miles of transmission greater than 200 kv More pipeline capacity will be needed to support new 2,432 gas fired capacity 32,500 30,000 27,500 25,000 22,500 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500-4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 (MMCFD) Announced Likely Under Construction Complete 28,938 19,532 18,606 14,859 13,882 12,848 12,705 10,423 9,262 8,460 8,198 10,080 6,983 7,661 6, Note: Excludes Storage Pipelines after 2007 Natural Gas Pipeline Mileage Additions (Miles) Announced Likely 3,571 3,554 3,347 Under Construction Complete 2,714 2,432 2,338 2,391 2,243 1,998 1,582 1,663 1,787 1,459 1,152 1, RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

9 How Much Gas-Fired Capacity Are We Expecting? As provided in the 2011 Long Term Reliability Assessment: Approximately 45 GW of Planned; 48 GW of Conceptual More expected due to not yet announced retirements 9 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

10 Do the Math Assuming: For every 1 MW of coal fired generation replaced with gas fired generation (baseload; running 24 hours a day), approximately MMCFD of gas supply is needed. Assuming: The most recent five year average pipeline capacity/mile is 7 MMCFD/mile 24,000 miles of additional gas pipeline may be needed for about 50 GW of displaced coal fired generation This is the same amount of miles built in the past 10 years 10 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

11 Need Closer Coordination and Enhanced Communication Gas Day vs. Electric Day Long standing g issue between the two industries Both sides have dealt with it, and aware of the potential issues Increasing concerns and challenges loom Day 1 Morning Day 1 Afternoon Day 1 Evening Day 2 Early Morning Day 2 Morning Gas Day Nominations Timely Scheduled For Next Nominations Day Confirmed Timely Nominations Scheduled For Next Day Evening Evening Nominations Confirmed Effective Gas Flow Electric Day Day Ahead Forecast and Unit Commitment Planning Gap Commitment and Generation Schedules Confirmed Generations Schedules Adjusted, Reliability Analysis Real Time Economic Dispatch Nominations requested for Day 2, but changes in load forecast, system conditions, and, ultimately, generation schedules continue during Day 1 11 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

12 Status of 2004 Recommendations Update since 2004 Study Significant progress has been made Recommendations for Reliability Assessment are implemented and continuing Coordination between pipeline operators and electric system operators is closer Identifying pipeline outages that can affect reliability More needed on planning front Firm contracts vs. pipeline pp expansion Many recommendations related to a tracking system Not formal in NERC process, but liaison activities between stakeholders and gas associations exist 12 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

13 Recommendations Natural gas storage expansion to meet unique electric sector demand dcharacteristics ti (i.e., unexpected tdswings) Vital information needed for the reliable operation of the bulk power system should be shared with system operators from both industries. Communication between industries is essential to maintain Bulk Power System reliability Vulnerabilities should be identified and mitigating strategies introduced into both industries 13 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

14 Questions?