Emerging Technologies Committee

Transcription

1 Emerging Technologies Committee Industry Trends for ADAS & Safety Systems Presented by: Jack Rozint, Mitchell International Tools Workgroup Chuck Olsen, AirPro OEM Procedures Jake Rodenroth, astech New Technician Darrell Amberson, LaMettry s

2 Audience Response Question: Please indicate which stakeholder group you represent: 1. Repairer 2. Insurance 3. OEM 4. Supplier 5. Salvage 6. Consultant 7. Education 8. Associations 9. Other Leave this area for the response results

3 Audience Response Question: In 5 years do you believe that the total U.S. Collision Repair Industry revenue will be: 1. Higher by more than 10% 2. Higher by less than 10% 3. About the same 4. Lower by less than 10% 5. Lower by more than 10% Leave this area for the response results

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6 Convenience & Safety Advancements 2010 Malibu LT 2018 Malibu LT Forward Collision Warning Front & Rear Parking Sensors Rear Backup Camera Lane Departure Warning Front Automatic Braking Rear Cross Traffic Alert Adaptive Cruise Control Blind Spot Monitor Pedestrian Detection Aluminum Hood & Suspension Components Number of Airbags 6 10

7 Convenience and Safety Advancements 2010 Chevy Malibu 2018 Chevy Malibu

8 2010 Chevy Malibu LS Example Repair: Replace Front Bumper cover, absorber, rebar, grilles, assuming a center front end hit. Total Cost = $1, Chevy Malibu LS Same repair but this vehicle is equipped with adaptive cruise control, front parking sensors, parallel parking sensors, and airbag sensors that require replacement after a collision. Total Cost = $3,627.13

9 2010 Chevy Malibu Average Repair Cost in 2012 : $2, Chevy Malibu Average Repair Cost in 2018: *Note Does not adjust for CPI, Labor rates, Total Loss %, etc. Source: Mitchell $4,098.94

10 Cost of Scanning & Calibration Source: Mitchell based on 30k estimate lines related to scanning

11 Database Challenges for Scanning OEMs have very limited warranty times on diagnostics procedures Time studies are challenging o Type of tool or system causes wide variation in time o Time on same make/model varies based on # of installed ECU s o What is included in time to scan? Electronic repairs are complex o Time to research o Time to troubleshoot

12 Windshield Replacement Average OEM ADAS Windshield: $1,300 $1,650* 6% of windshields replaced are equipped with some form of ADAS This number is expected to double every year for the foreseeable future Many manufacturers require the use of OEM glass which is contributing significantly along with calibration requirements to the rising cost of windshield replacements. *Source: AAA

13 2018 Honda Accord Calibration Requirements Multi Function Camera If camera unit is removed/installed or replaced If windshield is removed/installed or replaced If LKAS or ACC lamps indicate a potential problem If DTC s indicate a problem with system If vehicle is involved in a collision If SRS is deployed Only use OEM glass for replacement in vehicles equipped with multi purpose cameras Should be performed after wheel alignment if needed Millimeter Wave Radar If Radar is removed/installed or replaced If ACC warning light is illuminated After collision damage to front end After structural damage anywhere on the vehicle After SRS deployment Do not repair bumper cover near radar May require special grill or emblem Lane Watch Camera System Lane Watch Camera is removed/installed or replaced Passenger side rear view mirror is removed/installed or replaced Passenger side rear view mirror cover is removed/installed or replaced Passenger side door position is adjusted Passenger side door is removed/installed or replaced BSI Radar After removing/installing or replacing a BSI radar unit After repairing or replacing body panels where BSI radar unit mounts Do not repair bumper cover near BSI radar units Source: syndicate/guild21/guild21_ _ADASPresentation.pdf

14 Source: ETI/MARTEC

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16 Audi zfas Piloted Driving In an impending lateral collision at more than 25 km/h (15.5 mph), the suspension actuators of the optional Audi AI active suspension raise the body on the side exposed to the danger by up to 80 millimeters (3.1 in) within half a second. The other vehicle therefore hits the car in an even more impact resistant zone. Depending on the selected options, the zfas receives the data to do this from up to five radar sensors, six cameras, twelve ultrasound sensors and the laser scanner

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19 Electric Vehicle Collision Repair Considerations* Locate the hybrid/electric vehicle system components and identify if there is any damage to it. Check to see what is behind the damaged panel, and if its wires, connectors, modules, and/or battery is damaged. Understand service requirements for systems (e.g., cooling systems service/filling). Select the correct air conditioning system service equipment and oils to exclude the systems contaminations. Avoid towing/moving on road wheels to avoid possible hybrid or electric vehicle system damage or shock hazard. Know if there are any structural variations. * Source: I CAR

20 Percentage of Global Population Living in Urban Areas

21 Mobility as defined by the Oxford English Dictionary: The ability to move or be moved freely and easily

22 36% of people believe autonomous driving will be the dominant form of transport in 10 years time. Almost two thirds (65%) favor the idea of enhanced protection against thieves; e.g fingerprint recognition technology More than half (58%) currently do not trust driverless cars. Real time traffic information is the most popular (66%) anticipated feature of connected cars. 31% like the ability to personalize car features through software updates. 47% are currently concerned about driverless car hacking. Source: Gemalto.com

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24 Forecasted Industry Frequency and Severity institutes.com/content/dam/kpmg/manufacturing institute/pdf/2017/collision parts whitepaper.pdf 45

25 United States Collision Repair Market Source: Grand View Research 46

26 United States Collision Industry Revenue Growth Source: IBIS World showing 2018 industry revenue of $47B 47

27 Conclusions There should be plenty of work for collision repairers in the coming years Collision frequency is likely to continue to decline with ADAS advancements Average repair cost is likely to continue to rise based on vehicle complexity The type of repair work is changing: Metal/Frame/Refinish => Electrical/Software Modes of transportation are changing: Private driven auto => Ride Share/Mobility as a Service Liability for collisions will shift: Man (the driver) => Machine (the auto pilot/autonomous system)