The Automotive Industry in 2018: Accelerating Change

Transcription

1 The Automotive Industry in 2018: Accelerating Change KAIA AutoVision Conference Bernard Swiecki Director Automotive Communities Partnership (ACP) 14 August 2018

2 THE CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH (CAR) Automotive industry contract research and service organization (non-profit ) with more than 30 years experience forecasting industry trends, advising on public policy, and sponsoring multi-stakeholder communication forums. RESEARCH EVENTS CONNECT Independent research and analysis on critical issues facing the industry. Industry-driven events and conferences that deliver content, context, and connections. Consortia that bring together industry stakeholders to participate in working groups, networking opportunities, and access to CAR staff. CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 2

3 RESEARCH The Center for Automotive Research conducts leading-edge research that impacts the future of the global automotive industry by informing corporate leaders and policymakers and facilitating communication across the industry. CAR research and forecasts are produced primarily under three focused research groups: MET TSA Manufacturing, Engineering, & Technology Transportation Systems Analysis ILE Industry, Labor, & Economics CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 3

4 CAR Affiliates CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 4

5 Leverage your Engagement with CAR Ask Us! Research & Content Insights Speaking Engagements Collaborations Leverage CAR staff as your resource for information, insights, content, context and more Just Ask CAR economic forecasts, data and presentation support, private access to exclusive content for planning and analysis Direct access to CAR staff and subject matter experts for strategic planning, data and insights Public & Private speaking engagements, strategic planning sessions, board or finance meetings Engage with CAR and network with industry stakeholders through collaborative working groups & events CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 5

6 Capital goes where it is welcome and stays where it is well treated. - Walter Wriston 6

7 About the Automotive Communities Partnership (ACP) Helps communities adapt and position themselves for new automotive products, technologies, and investments Member-based, non-profit, community-industry partnership Links major automotive activity centers to each other and to companies Goal: Increase regional automotive growth 7

8 ACP Member Benefits Updates, analysis, and advice on: Sales, production, and employment forecasts Policy and site selection Future products Current investments and incentives Industry employment In the form of: Monthly webinars Program-specific reports Quarterly, regional meetings Access to CAR research staff 8

9 ACP Member Access ACCESS TO ORIGINAL RESEARCH YEAR ROUND DATABASE ACCESS COLLABORATIVE NETWORKING Mexican Competitive Analysis Communities and Connected and Automated Vehicles Repurposing Manufacturing Facilities Economic Contribution Studies Book of Deals Industry Forecasts Vehicle Timing Charts Closed and Repurposed Manufacturing Facilities Monthly Webinars Quarterly meetings Community Assistance CAR s Management Briefing Seminars Incentive 9

10 State of the Industry Return to Overview

11 North American Announced Automaker Investment by Region, 2009 to 2017 Region InvestmentAmount ($USD) Canada United States U.S. Great Lakes Michigan South Mexico $7.1B $87.6B $55.1B $27.0B $20.0B $24.8B $7.1B $87.6B Total $119.5B $24.8B Note: U.S. Great Lakes includes: IL, IN, KY, MI, MO, and OH South includes: AL, FL, GA, MS, SC, TN, and TX Source: Center for Automotive Research Book of Deals 11

12 U.S., Canadian, and Mexican Free Trade Reach Share of the New Motor Vehicle Market That Can Be Reached Tariff-Free 2016 Market; Free Trade Agreements in Place as of March 2018 United States Canada Mexico 28% 53% 51% U.S. Sources: OICA; United Kingdom included as part of the EU; Canada s CPTPP reach is larger than Mexico s because Mexico had FTAs with CPTPP partners prior to CPTPP CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

13 U.S. Light Vehicle Monthly Sales January 2014 June ,800, ,700,000 1,600,000 Light Vehicle Sales 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000, ,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Wards Auto; CAR Research CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 13

14 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Percent Change (YTD) Through June: 2018 vs Total 2.0% 8,574, ,890 Total 100% Light Trucks 5,827, ,422 Truck 68.0% 10.0% Passenger Cars -11.6% -359,532 Cars 2,747, % -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Source: Wards Auto; CAR Research CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 14

15 Percent Change in Sales of Light Vehicles Per OEM: YTD Through June: 2018 vs TOTAL LV Sales FCA GM Toyota Honda Ford Hyundai- Kia Nissan/Mitsubishi Source: Wards Auto; CAR Research -3.0% -2.0% -2.1% -0.5% 2.0% 3.0% CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 4.2% 4.7% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 8,574, ,890 TOTAL LV Sales 100% 1,107,864 49,565 FCA 12.9% 1,473,237 59,789 GM 17.2% 1,189,312 34,147 Toyota 13.9% 787,824-4,062 Honda 9.2% 1,239,302-25,081 Ford 14.5% 628,611-13,485 Hyundai- Kia 7.3% 848,022-26,242 Nissan/Mitsubishi 9.9% 15

16 U.S. Market Share: YTD June 2018 GM Units: 1,473, % Ford Units: 1,239, % Toyota Units: 1,189, % FCA Units: 1,107, % Nissan/Mitsubishi Units: 848, % Honda Units: 787, % Hyundai- Kia Units: 628, % 0 200, , , ,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 Source: Wards Auto; CAR Research CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 16

17 Segment Breakdown U.S. LV Sales Percent Change June (YTD) 2018 vs June (YTD) 2017 Total Small CUV Large CUV Middle CUV Pickup SUV Van Luxury Car Large Car Small Car Middle Car -12.5% -14.4% -10.5% -3.0% -1.2% 2.0% 10.9% 8.7% 6.0% 5.5% 43.3% Source: Ward s Automotive Reports -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 17

18 Market Share: Segment Breakdown U.S. LV Sales June (YTD) 2018 Middle CUV Pickup Small Car Middle Car SUV Small CUV Luxury Car Van Large CUV Large Car 1.3% 3.2% 5.7% 5.7% 8.3% 8.3% 11.3% 13.7% 16.0% 26.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Source: Ward s Automotive Reports CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 18

19 Market Share: Segment Breakdown U.S. Light Vehicle Sales 2018 YTD Through June CUV 36.9% Pickup 16.0% Small Car 13.5% Middle Car SUV 8.3% 10.0% Van Luxury Car Electrified 3.3% 5.6% 4.9% Large Car 1.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Note: Electrified Segment consists of BEVs, HEVs and PHEVs; all other segments are sales exclusive of Hybrid models Source: Ward s Automotive Reports and CAR Research CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 19

20 Segment Breakdown: U.S. Light Vehicles Sales Percent Change 2018 YTD vs YTD Through June Total CUV Electrified Pickup SUV Van Luxury Car Large Car Small Car Middle Car -8.5% -10.5% -12.5% -14.0% -2.1% 2.0% 5.8% 5.5% 7.9% 14.7% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Note: Electrified Segment consists of BEVs, HEVs and PHEVs; all other segments are sales exclusive of Hybrid models Source: Ward s Automotive Reports and CAR Research CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 20

21 U.S. Electrified Light Vehicle Sales by Propulsion Technologies YTD Through June 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% HEV PHEV BEV 0.0% Note: Electrified vehicles consist of BEV, HEV and PHEV Source: Ward s Automotive Reports (from 2010 and on), HybridCars.com and CAR Research CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 21

22 Forecasts Return to Overview

23 CAR Forecast, Q Good News: U.S. economy is growing at a healthy rate. Labor market is in its best condition in two decades. Employment of all ages are growing. Wages are growing. Consumer confidences are near record high North America vehicle production is up YTD. US auto sales also up YTD New housing starts annual rate average at 1.3 million, up from 1.2 million last year The latest CPI Inflation rate reached 2.8%. Core CPI (without food and energy) Inflation rate is 2.3% Global economy is steadily growing. China is expected to grow 6.6% this year; EU is expected to grow at 2.1% CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 23

24 CAR Forecast, Q (Continued) Not So Good News: All vehicles prices are soaring expect for passenger cars, whose market shares are down to below one-third Interest rates are rising. No more cheap credit for consumers Gasoline prices are at near three-year high. Vehicle ownership costs are increasing Equity market conditions are mixed. High-techs are doing well. S&P/DOW are sluggish Household debt is climbing, especially in student loans and auto loans. Delinquency rates for students loans/auto loans are also climbing. International trade policies and conflicts are getting worse. Global economy will be affected. Consumer prices will go up. If the trade conflicts prolong and heat up, private investment will stop and economic growth will end CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 24

25 CAR s U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Forecast U.S. LV Sales in Millions 16.5 U.S. Sales Source: CAR Research, July 2018 CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 25 Return to Overview

26 CAR s U.S. Light Vehicle Production Forecast U.S. Vehicle Production (millions) 11.1 U.S. Production Source: CAR Research, July 2018 CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 26 Return to Overview

27 CAR s N.A. Light Vehicle Production Forecast N.A. Vehicle Production (millions) 17.4 N.A. Production Source: CAR Research, July 2018 CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 27 Return to Overview

28 Photo credits: Jude Buffum A LOOK AT THE CONNECTED AND AUTOMATED FUTURE CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

29 ADVANCED TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGIES DEFINITIONS Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Electronics, communications, or information processing used singly or in combination to improve the efficiency or safety of a surface transportation system (CFR 940.1) Connected Vehicle Systems Any system enabling the exchange of digital information between a vehicle and the world (e.g., another vehicle, infrastructure) Automated Vehicle Systems Any electronic system that influences the lateral or longitudinal operation (or both) of a vehicle Connected Vehicle Systems Intelligent Transportation Systems Automated Vehicle Systems CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

30 ADVANCED TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGIES EXAMPLES CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

31 AUTOMATED VEHICLE SYSTEMS SAE INTERNATIONAL TAXONOMY 0: No Driving Automation Levels 0-2 Available Today 1: Driver Assistance 2: Partial Driving Automation Levels 3-5 Automated Driving Systems (ADS) Future 3: Conditional Driving Automation 4: High Driving Automation 5: Full Driving Automation CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

32 INNOVATIVE MOBILITY SERVICES BUSINESS MODELS Innovative mobility services are transportation solutions enabled by emerging technologies and wireless connectivity that allow for more convenient, efficient, and flexible travel. RIDEHAILING CARSHARING MICROTRANSIT RIDESHARING BIKESHARING MOBILITY-AS-A- SERVICE CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

33 Photo credits: Jude Buffum POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

34 TRANSFORMATION OF PARKING CAVs will enable more efficient use of existing parking supply. Opportunities Reduced need for new municipal parking Smaller parking spots, less on-site and on-street parking Parking relocated on the back of lots or outside prime locations Considerations Possible decline of municipal revenues Reconversion in drop-off/pick-up areas Relocation of CAV parking impacts both VMT and congestion CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

35 CAVs only One parking level for CAVs. Ground floor converted to access area. Top floors converted to other uses. Concept: Arrowstreet Architecture CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

36 IMPLICATIONS FOR MASS TRANSIT Pilot projects for automated transit exist today, mostly in Europe. University of Michigan and Navya will introduce automated shuttle service this fall Navya Arma Easymile EZ10 Local Motors Olli Auro 2getthere CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

37 MODIFICATIONS TO EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE SIGNALS AND ROAD MARKINGS Traffic signal updates are necessary to enable V2I V2I communication may replace some functions of signs and signals Pedestrians, cyclists, or non-connected vehicles still need them Clear lane markings are beneficial, but not necessary Source: Point Grey CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

38 MODIFICATIONS TO EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE LANE WIDTH AND ROAD CAPACITY Today Narrower lanes, no medians Bike lanes, drop-off lanes, wider sidewalks Narrower and fewer lanes, no medians Bike lanes, drop-off lanes, wider sidewalks Source: FDOT, 2016 CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

39 LAND FORM SPRAWL Decrease Urban-core space could be freed up for redevelopment, thanks to lower parking demand Denser, more walkable developments could be created Sprawl Increase Willingness to travel longer distances to and from work could increase Household and businesses might locate farther from urban cores Source: Alloybuild CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

40 AUTOMATED DRIVING SYSTEMS (ADS) PROMISES TIMELINE Volvo DriveME 100-car Demo (Level 3) Audi Traffic Jam Pilot (Level 3) Bosch Level 3 Highway Honda Automated HW Driving (Level 3?) Mobileye/Delphi Automated Driving Solution (Level 3/4?) Nissan Autonomous Drive (Level 3?) Audi Highway Pilot (Level 4) Lyft/GM Automated Taxis (Level 4) Mercedes Autonomous Drive (Level 4) Ford Automated Ridesharing (Level 4) BMW Highly/Fully Autonomous (Level 4/5?) Uber Autonomous Taxis (Level 4) Volvo (Level 4) Navya/M City Low Speed Shuttle (Level 4, limited ODD) 2getthere Low Speed Shuttle Level 4, limited ODD Tesla? Google? Toyota Chauffeur Volkswagen CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

41 Technology Roadmap Summary Sources: CAR Research 41 6

42 Material Percentage Use by Year, 2010 to 2040 MATERIALS, MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY, AND PRODUCTION SYSTEMS Note: Between 2010 to 2020 the mix of material represents the mix throughout the industry as some vehicles in the fleet still use predominantly mild or lower grade steels while few higher end vehicles use ultra high strength steels with aluminum. Automotive engineers want the right material at the right place but are currently constrained with issues such as mixed-material joining, supply chain risk, infrastructure etc. In the future, no single material wins the race to lightweighting. Future vehicles will have highly optimized mixed-material body structure; therefore, From 2025 to 2040 the material percentages represents material mix in a single vehicle. Source: CAR Research 42 9

43 ADAS and Vehicle Automation Technologies, 2000 to beyond 2040 INTELLIGENT MOBILITY TECHNOLOGY Note: It is currently unclear whether automotive manufacturers will market vehicles with Level 3 capabilities, because of significant human-machine interaction issues. It is too soon to predict whether it will be possible to produce Level 5 vehicles, capable of operating anywhere and in all situations Source: CAR Research

44 Thank You Bernard Swiecki