Plant oils a sunrise industry

Transcription

1 Plant oils a sunrise industry a Global Challenge to treble renewable oil production Allan Green AAOCS Biennial Meeting Newcastle, 6 November 2013

2 Houston, we have a problem!

3 It s getting crowded! Another 2 billion people by Food security concerns

4 We re running low on fuel! It s not just about food, what about materials & energy? Reliance on petroleum for industrial materials & energy Finite, non-renewable resource Increasing price volatility Have we passed peak oil? GHG emissions & pollution Need to move to renewable resources energy non-carbon materials bio-based Food vs Fuel dilemma

5 and things are heating up!

6 Living off the land Living off the land

7 Reconciling competing demands + + vs vs Food Fuel Materials Development of a viable and sustainable bio-based industrial products sector will require minimal impact on food supply must be additional not competitive

8 Bio-based industrial products

9 Food oil and mineral oil reach parity 250 SBO Crude 2008 USD per Barrel ? 50 3-yr rolling mean 1 MT SBO = 7 barrels Middle East political instability severely affects supply outlook Renewed interest in industrial use of vegetable oils. Development of biodiesel technology. Economically viable only with subsidy support. Increased substitutability of oils Heavy demand and Peak Oil speculation increases price

10 Plant oils can t solve energy problem Mineral Oils Plant Oils 400MT petro chemical 4.3 BT fuels (gasoline, diesel, etc) 20 MT oleochemicals 120 MT food oils

11 Plant oils can t solve energy problem But could be very important for some renewable industrial applications Aviation and marine fuels Industrial chemicals & materials If there was enough plant oil available!

12 Global Plant Oil Supply Challenge Can we treble global plant oil production by 2050 to provide enough surplus oil to replace 40% of petroleum products with renewables? Looking back, and looking forward

13 Current plant oil production Current production

14 Future food oil needs Increased food oil demand Current production

15 Per capita consumption still increasing kg/yr/person Argentina USA Australia China India Ethiopia

16 Increasing production Increased food oil demand Current production

17 Increasing production Petrochemical replacement Increased food oil demand Current production

18 Increasing production Can it be trebled again in 40 years? 200 Petrochemical replacement Production trebled in 25 years Increased food oil demand Current production

19 Three oil crops dominate production Oil MT/yr 140 Other 120 Cottonseed Peanut Sunflower Rapeseed/Canola Soybean Palm kernel Palm 3

20 Area Planted increased strongly Mha/yr Soybean Rapeseed Oil palm % pa % pa % pa

21 Oil Productivity increasing steadily Oil T/ha % pa % pa % pa

22 Oil Content the gold standard 6 t/ha oil

23 Oil Content flat-lining 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% Palm Kernel Peanut Sunflower Rapeseed Soybean Cottonseed Linear ( Palm Kernel) 10% 5% 0%

24 Oil Content flat-lining 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% Palm Kernel Peanut Sunflower Rapeseed Soybean Cottonseed 10% 5% 0%

25 Past production increase factors Trebling plant oil production over past 20 years was achieved through:- Doubling the area sown to oil crops, especially oil palm, soybean and rapeseed/canola Strong gains in oil yield per hectare through 40-50% improvement in crop productivity Improvements in oil content were relatively minor

26 Can we rely on acreage expansion? Arable land area is under increasing threat Population Degradation Conservation

27 Can we rely on acreage expansion? Arable land area is under increasing threat. Rate of expansion will slow down significantly where can we expect to get the land needed? especially while increasing other food grains by 1 BT 200 Mha + 60 Mha + 25 Mha

28 Can we rely on productivity gains? Incremental improvements in crop productivity will only just keep pace with increased food oil demand (1% p.a. only 210 MT by 2050)

29 Game changing approaches needed Incremental improvements in crop productivity will only just keep pace with increased food demand (1% p.a. only 210 MT by 2050) Major step changes in oil productivity are needed Imminent game-changing technology breakthroughs Increased seed oil content Accumulation of oil in leaves, roots and tubers Algal oils

30 Untapped oil production potential Macadamia 70% Sesame 60% Sunflower 48% Rapeseed 48% Peanut 48% Linseed 42% Safflower 38% Camelina 35% Pennycress 29% Cress 23% Soybean 19% Cottonseed 18% Lupin 8% 12% 12% 12% 18% 22% 25% 31% 37% 41% 42% 52% 60%

31 Maximising oil content in seeds Macadamia Sesame Sunflower Rapeseed Peanut Linseed Safflower Camelina Pennycress Cress Soybean Cottonseed Lupin 70% 60% 48% 48% 48% 42% 38% 35% 29% 23% 19% 18% 8% 7% X 31 MT + 2 MT 7% X 60 MT + 4 MT 7% X 22 MT + 2 MT Total = 116 MT 36% X 260 MT + 94 MT 37% X 39 MT + 14 MT 55%

32 Increased value would drive adoption Annual minimum asking price at European ports in USD (Oil World) $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 Soybean Oil Soybean Meal Rapeseed Oil Rapeseed Meal Sunflower Oil Sunflower Meal Palm Oil Oils are 2-5 times more valuable than protein meals Oils $400 $200 Meals $

33 Increased value would drive adoption Annual minimum asking price at European ports in USD (Oil World) $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ $ % Oil $ 528 $ 605 Meal $ 104 $ 90 Total $ 632 $ 695 Crush $ 80 $ 80 Seed $ 552 $ %

34 Increased value would drive adoption Annual minimum asking price at European ports in USD (Oil World) $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ $ % Oil $ 190 $ 550 Meal $ 324 $ 180 Total $ 514 $ 730 Crush $ 80 $ 80 Seed $ 434 $ %

35 Increased value would drive adoption Annual minimum asking price at European ports in USD (Oil World) $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ $ % Oil $ 198 $ 605 Meal $ 164 $ 90 Total $ 362 $ 695 Crush $ 80 $ 80 Seed $ 282 $ %

36 Increased value would drive adoption Annual minimum asking price at European ports in USD (Oil World) $1,800 Lupin $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ % Oil - $ 550 Meal* - $ 100 Total - $ 650 Crush - $ 80 Seed $ 250 $ % * Assuming meal value of $220/T

37 New technology for engineering high oil Master switches involved in controlling fatty acid synthesis uncovered (transcription factors) Gene silencing to switch of competing pathways PUSH

38 New technology for engineering high oil Master switches involved in controlling fatty acid synthesis uncovered (transcription factors) Gene silencing to switch of competing pathways Increasing understanding of TAG biosynthetic pathway complexity Introduction of alternative TAG (and WE) biosynthetic pathways PUSH PULL

39 New technology for engineering high oil Master switches involved in controlling fatty acid synthesis uncovered (transcription factors) Gene silencing to switch of competing pathways Increasing understanding of TAG biosynthetic pathway complexity Introduction of alternative TAG (and WE) biosynthetic pathways Oleosin engineering for accumulating oils in oil bodies Lipase engineering to reduce TAG turnover PUSH PULL PROTECT

40 Producing oil in leaves

41 A technology path for trebling oil Productivity gains (1% pa) 100 Maximising seed oil content New plant oil sources 420 Food Industrial

42 AAOCS 2050 Presentation Title 42

43 THANK YOU Allan Green Deputy Chief CSIRO Plant Industry T E allan.green@csiro.au W