Emerging technological options to improve air quality and public health in urban areas

Transcription

1 Emerging technological options to improve air quality and public health in urban areas Josh Miller, ICCT ESCAP Regional Expert Group Meeting November 2013 Incheon, Republic of Korea

2 The International Council on Clean Transportation The mission of ICCT is to dramatically improve the environmental performance and efficiency of cars, trucks, buses and transportation systems in order to protect and improve public health, the environment, and quality of life. Non-profit research organization Air pollution and climate impacts Regulations and fiscal incentives for clean vehicles and fuels Road vehicles, aviation, and marine National and local policies Council of regulators in largest markets Top 15 vehicle markets (2012 sales*) China U.S. EU Japan Brazil India Russia Canada South Korea Thailand Indonesia Australia Mexico Argentina Turkey *million light- and heavy-duty vehicles (Ward sales data) 1

3 Impacts of motor vehicle emissions Greenhouse Gases - CO 2, Methane, Black Carbon, N 2 O, HFC Haze Ozone (VOC + NOx) Particles (PM 10 /PM 2.5 ) NOx, SOx, VOC, ammonia Carbon monoxide (CO) Toxics - Diesel particles - Benzene - Heavy metals Source: Michael Walsh 2

4 Characteristics of diesel soot Diesel particulate matter (PM) is Tiny Dangerous Mostly black carbon (BC) 3

5 Diesel exhaust harmful to health and climate Vehicle Non-CO 2 GHG emissions ( ) Globally, diesel vehicles produce 90 percent of PM and 95 percent of BC emissions (ICCT Health Roadmap) One kg of black carbon causes as much climate impact in the near term as 3,200 kg of carbon dioxide (Forster, et al.) BC is the second largest contributor to climate warming from human activities (Bond, et al.) Calculated using GWP-20. Non-CO2 GHGs include BC, CH4, N2O, OC, SO2 theicct.org/global-health-roadmap 4

6 Link air quality and activity policies From our measurements, we conclude that exposure to traffic related PM is up to an order of magnitude higher for cyclists than for car passengers. Int Panis, et al. (2010) Increased breathing frequency and volume due to physical exertion cause more PM to be inhaled PM more likely to remain in lungs due to deeper breaths Slower travel speeds can prolong exposure Photo credit: Tom Krymkowski (left) Reuters (right) 5

7 Emerging technologies 6

8 Diesel particulate filters virtually eliminate ultrafines 7

9 Progressively stringent tailpipe emission and fuel standards are effective at reducing emissions to near-zero levels Diesel: 2,000 ppm 500 ppm 350 ppm 50 ppm 10 ppm HHDT LDV Fuel Sulfur Level -99% Average lifetime emission factor (grams PM 2.5 /km) % -38% -22% -68% -77% -20% -33% -23% -95% -90% Uncontrolled Euro 1/I Euro 2/II Euro 3/III Euro 4/IV Euro 5/V Euro 6/VI -99% DOC SCR DPF DPF Source: ICCT Health Roadmap (2013) 8

10 Fundamentals of controlling air pollutant emissions from motor vehicles New vehicle standards Technology neutral (but technology-forcing ) emissions standards for new vehicles. Must consider emissions from all mobile sources: on-road, offroad, marine, locomotives, aviation, construction Limit values only as good as: - Compliance and enforcement - Real-world performance Systems Approach Fuel quality standards High fuel quality (especially low sulfur levels) enables advanced emission control technologies to be deployed in the fleet. Fuel quality compliance programs critical to prevent damage to engines and prevent misfueling In-use vehicle emission control Clean up legacy vehicles on the roads Comprehensive program includes: - Catching gross-emitters (I/M, remote sensing, maintenance, etc.) - Cleaner fuels - Scrappage/replacement programs - Retrofit programs - Complementary strategies (low emission zones, driver training, etc.) Not shown but also important: transportation demand management, modal shift, traffic optimization, and more theicct.org/global-health-roadmap theicct.org/bestpractices-emissioncontrol-in-use-hdvs

11 National vehicle emission control programs Annual premature mortality by region, Best Practice China & India Non-EU Europe, Russia, & Latin America Other Countries Early deaths 110, ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 Global health impacts from urban vehicle particle emissions to increase 150% by 2030 unless new vehicle and fuel standards are adopted. -79% New standards could avoid 210,000 early deaths in 2030 and 25 million of years of life through % 40,000 30,000 20,000-7% -74% 10, Baseline Accelerated (%) Data labels indicate percent reduction from Baseline in 2030 Source: ICCT Health Roadmap (2013) 10

12 National actions enable cities to move ahead National emission-based vehicle labeling programs Minimum standards allow formulation of LEZ criteria Standardized certification and labeling enable enforcement Give local governments authority to control emissions Negotiate fuel-quality improvements with local refineries Early emission standards for new vehicles Regulate and test in-use vehicles Fiscal measures promote clean vehicles and fuels Establish national fuel quality standards Augment local options to retrofit and replace in-use, require technologies on new vehicles. Emission reduction technology verification Web-accessible and searchable database Enable development of effective local retrofit programs Source: Wagner and Rutherford (2013) 11

13 Local actions 12

14 Fiscal incentives enable switch to low-sulfur fuel Policy type Region Magnitude Result Tax differentials at the pump Tax incentive for refiners Direct government subsidy to refiners Hong Kong HK$ 0.89/L (0.11 USD/L) for 50-ppm HK$ 0.56/L (0.07 USD/L) for 10-ppm Japan (national) 7% deduction in corporate tax OR 30% accelerated depreciation on equipment purchase 500-ppm to 50-ppm (2000) to 10-ppm (2008) 5,000-ppm to 2,000- ppm (1992) to 500-ppm (1997) Tokyo 10 yen/l (0.1 USD/L) 500-ppm to 50-ppm (2003) to 10-ppm (2005) Source: He (2013) 13

15 An early model for electric three-wheelers Source: rickshawrising.com Short commutes in cities and relatively low speeds Government support: Lower tariffs for off-peak battery charging No import duties on EV components such as batteries and electric motors VAT (Value Added Tax) exemption for EV manufacturing Still running in Kathmandu after 13 years Source: Baral (2000) 14

16 Combined financial incentives promote e-taxis BYD s profitable operational scheme Source: BYD (2012) BYD e6 Electric Taxi in Shenzhen, China China Development Bank finances 5-year, low-interest loan National and local subsidies totalling 120,000 RMB Monthly fuel savings exceed loan payment, with profit 15

17 Match technology to vehicle operating conditions Representative daily vehicle travel in China Private/business light-duty vehicle Actual EV range Low High Taxi Urban public bus Motorcycle Daily vehicle-km traveled New EVs meet range requirements for most urban vehicles Fuel savings from efficiency increase with vehicle travel Overnight charging minimizes impacts on electricity grid VKT/vehicle data: Huo et al. (2012) EV range data: WECE (2013) 16

18 Local policies to promote electric vehicles Create a business case with financial incentives Rebates or tax credits Low-interest financing Time-of-use electricity pricing Discounted tolls and parking Discounted electricity rates Complement with non-financial incentives Low emission zones Preferential parking spaces Expedite permitting of charging units Encourage car-sharing schemes Limit upfront cost to consumers Preserve mobility Complement public transit, bicycling, walking Pilot EV fleets Ensure effectiveness Set the stage for wider uptake Source: EVI (2013) 17

19 Benefits of EVs depend on electricity mix Well-to-Wheel CO 2 from a Nissan Leaf compared to efficient gasoline vehicles Source: Pike (2012) 18

20 Conclusions Consider interrelated issues Emission controls & fuel quality, electricity mix & EVs, air quality & sustainable activity, climate & health policies National emission reduction strategies New vehicle emission limits and fuel quality critical to sustained emission reductions Efficiency standards and fiscal policies have proven success and remaining potential Local emission reduction strategies Retrofit and replacement accelerates health benefits of standards Low emission zones provide regulatory backstop and support fleet renewal, EV adoption EV benefits augmented with clean electricity, off-peak charging, low-interest financing, right-of-way benefits, high vehicle utilization (taxis, buses, carsharing) 19

21 6.4 Mini 5.0 AUTHOR Hui He is a policy analyst with the ICCT, and co-lead for the ICCT s China region. 6.7 Small Fuel consumption L/100km ( China; EU) 6.6 Lower Medium Medium 9 Large SUV 1 Petroleum Association of Japan Petroleum Industry in Japan 2011, page 49. Accessed on July 3, english/industry/. 8.9 Thank you. For more information: THE IMPACT OF STRINGENT FUEL AND VEHICLE STANDARDS ON PREMATURE MORTALITY AND EMISSIONS ICCT S GLOBAL TRANSPORTATION HEALTH AND CLIMATE ROADMAP SERIES AUTHORS: Sarah Chambliss, Josh Miller, Cristiano Façanha, Ray Minjares, Kate Blumberg BRIEFING SEPTEMBER 2013 THE NEW PASSENGER CAR FLEET IN CHINA, 2010 Technology Assessment and International Comparisons Electric Vehicle Grid Integration in the U.S., Europe, and China The ICCT and the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) jointly commissioned MJ Bradley & Associates to write a report on challenges and opportunities in integrating electric vehicles (EV) into the electrical grid in several world regions. This briefing paper summarizes their findings. The full report is available at < electric-vehicle-grid-integration-us-europe-and-china>. OVERVIEW Governments around the world are promoting electric vehicle deployment as part of their clean transportation and climate mitigation strategies. The U.S. has a target of 1 million EVs by 2015 and provides generous financial incentives for EV purchases and installation of EV charging equipment, while individual states have additional incentives. The EU supports EV deployment broadly through incentives in two major directives. Denmark, France, and Germany, which were examined in detail in this report, each have ambitious targets for EV adoption by 2020, supported by various financial incentives. China targets half a million EVs by 2015 and 5 million EVs by 2020, and provides subsidies and various financial and other incentives depending on region and city. New EV models come online each year. At the time the report was written, 17 battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle models were available on the market, ranging in size from two-seaters to Toyota s RAV4 SUV. Still, none of these models are perfect replacements for conventional vehicles: the highest EV range potential (~ 200 miles for Tesla s Model S) is half that of a typical conventional vehicle, refueling time is far longer (from around 30 minutes to over 20 hours depending on the charging capacity), and EVs are still significantly more expensive. communications@theicct.org The reason governments support EV deployment despite the above-mentioned drawbacks is that EVs offer attractive potential benefits. EVs have no tailpipe emissions, which immediately reduces harmful pollution in cities. And EVs have the BEIJING BERLIN BRUSSELS SAN FRANCISCO WASHINGTON BEIJING BERLIN BRUSSELS SAN FRANCISCO WASHINGTON White Paper Number 18 March 2012 WORKING PAPER AUGUST 2013 Survey of Best Practices in Emission Control of In-Use Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles VANCE WAGNER, DAN RUTHERFORD Urban off-cycle NOx emissions from Euro IV/V trucks and buses Problems and solutions for Europe and developing countries OVERVIEW OF INDIA S VEHICLE EMISSIONS CONTROL PROGRAM PAST SUCCESSES AND FUTURE PROSPECTS Gaurav Bansal and Anup Bandivadekar Policy measures to finance the transition to lower sulfur motor fuels AUTHOR: Hui He DATE: 14 June 2013 KEYWORDS: Fuel quality, ultra-low sulfur fuels, vehicle emissions, emission control technologies Background and objective Shifting to ultra low sulfur motor fuels (diesel and gasoline with sulfur content not exceeding 0.001% or 10 parts per million [ppm]) has tremendous environmental and health benefits. Using ultra low sulfur fuel directly reduces vehicle exhaust emissions, especially sulfur dioxide and sulfate particulate matter emitted from combustion. More importantly, it also ensures that advanced aftertreatment technologies such as diesel particulate filters and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) absorbers will function well and lead to significant reduction in vehicular emissions of particulate matter (PM) and NOx. Existing and new catalytically equipped gasoline fueled vehicles will have lower emissions if lower sulfur fuels replace higher sulfur fuels. As a result, all the countries and regions in the world that have adopted the strictest vehicle emissions standards (e.g. Euro 5/V or above or US Tier 2 standards for light-duty vehicles and US model year 2010 standards for heavy-duty vehicles) also require the concurrent use of ultra low sulfur fuels in order to enable well-functioning and durable emissions control technologies. motor fuel desulfurization by introducing fiscal and other policy measures with examples from five countries or regions in Europe, North America and Asia. The policies showcased include tax differentials at the pump, tax incentives or subsidies for refiners, and regulatory mandates with flexibility. The following sections describe the policy packages implemented in Japan, Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States. The paper concludes with a set of lessons learned from the international experiences to date. Japan Nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) pollution had become a national concern in the 1980s in Japan. In 1989, the national government established short- and long-term emission standards to reduce NOx and PM emissions from diesel engines 1. The emission limits were set in parallel with a requirement to use lower sulfur content diesel fuel (less than 0.05% or 500-ppm) Dana Lowell and Fanta Kamakaté Ultra low sulfur fuels (ULSFs) are more expensive for refineries to produce than higher sulfur fuels primarily because of the required investment in the equipment and processes to remove naturally occurring sulfur from petroleum, in addition to increased operating costs. Therefore, many countries and regions have deployed a variety of policies to incentivize an accelerated transition to ULSFs. to ensure that the advanced exhaust after-treatment system (exhaust gas recirculation and oxidation catalyst) would function well. The government instituted direct tax incentives in two phases, from and from , to subsidize refinery investments for reducing sulfur in diesel fuel first to below 2,000 ppm and then further to 500-ppm. Refineries had a choice of a 7 percent This working paper is intended to provide an overview of successful international experiences related to financing communications@theicct.org BEIJING BERLIN BRUSSELS SAN FRANCISCO WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION, Josh Miller josh@theicct.org theicct.org 20

22 References Baral, Anil (2000). The Electric Vehicle Industry in Nepal. Bond, T. C., et al. (2013). Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: A Scientific Assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118, no. 11 (June 16): BYD (2012). BYD launches Zero vehicle purchase price, Zero costs, Zero emissions city electric public transportsolution. Chambliss, S., Miller, J., Façanha, C., Minjares, R., & Blumberg, K. (2013). The Impact of Stringent Fuel and Vehicle Standards on Premature Mortality and Emissions, theicct.org/global-health-roadmap EVI & IEA (2013). Global EV Outlook: Understanding the Electric Vehicle Landscape to IEA.org/Topics/Transport/ElectricVehiclesInitiative Façanha, C., K. Blumberg, and J. Miller (2012). Global Transportation Energy and Climate Roadmap. International Council on Clean Transportation. November. Available online at Energy%20Report.pdf Forster, P., et al. (2007). Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forc- ing. Chapter 2 in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Pp Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Available online at He, Hui (2013). Policy measures to finance the transition to lower sulfur motor fuels. The ICCT. Huo, et al. (2011). Vehicle-use intensity in China: Current status and future trend. Energy Policy. Int Panis, L., de Geus, B., Vandenbulcke, G., Willems, H., Degraeuwe, B., Bleux, N., et al. (2010). Exposure to particulate matter in traffic: A comparison of cyclists and car passengers. Atmospheric Environment, 44(19), doi: / j.atmosenv Pike, E. (2012). Calculating Electric Drive Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Retrieved from Shuguang Ji, Christopher R. Cherry, Matthew J. Bechle, Ye Wu, and Julian D. Marshall (2012). Electric Vehicles in China: Emissions and Health Impacts. Environmental Science & Technology. 46 (4) Wagner, V., and D. Rutherford (2013). Best practices in emission control of in-use heavy-duty vehicles. The ICCT. WECE (2013). 21