Competitive position and future opportunities of the European Marine Supplies Industry

Transcription

1 Competitive position and future opportunities of the European Marine Supplies Industry Selected Results of a study for the European Commission 2013/2014 Joachim Brodda BALance Technology Consulting Sector Shipbuilding Committee Meeting Bremen, Germany 30 th September 2014 Scope of the Study The Marine Supplies Industry (markets, structure, categories) The size of the marine supplies industry (statistical analysis averaging data ) Marine Supplies Industry discussion of framework conditions and development aspects of the industry in the last five years Marine Supplies Market Forecast (Shipnewbuilding and 6 other marine markets) Economic Drivers, Future Markets and Models of Shipbuilding and Marine supplies supply chains Position and future potential of the European Marine Supply Industries SWOT

2 Various Markets for Marine Supplies Newbuilding of Merchant Ships and Offshore Ships (shipyards, boatyards and shipping companies) Ship repair and conversion of merchant ships (shipyards, boatyards and shipping companies) Retrofitting a special conversion market for ships following new regulations (shipyards, boatyards and shipping companies) Offshore O&G Platforms, Jack ups etc., (offshore and shipyards, oil and gas companies/operators) Offshore Wind (offshore and shipyards, e energy companies/operators) Naval shipbuilding incl. maintenance and repair (shipyards and governments) Boatbuilding (boatyards, shipyards) Other marine and maritime supply markets, e.g. offshore underwater equipment and services, traffic and environmental surveillance, safety and security markets, harbour technologies, shipyard equipment, special polar markets and marine sciences these supply markets are not considered in the course of this study Value chains in shipbuilding market level Shipyard A Horizontal co operation Shipyard B, module factory Supplier 1st tier supplier Material Component Systems Subcontractor Manu facturing Assembly Engineering Design Supplier Material Component Systems Subcontractor Manu facturing Assembly Engineering Design Supplier Subcontractor Manu Engineering Material Component Systems facturing Design Assembly 2nd tier supplier Supplier Subcontractor Manu Engineering Material Component Systems facturing Design Assembly Supplier Subcontractor Manu Engineering Material Component Systems facturing Design Assembly vertical, pyramidal co operation

3 Marine Supplies Industry Structure Simplified Structure of 10 Supply Trades 1. External services and subcontracts only engineering, design and consulting services are covered, because subcontracts for manufacturing or assembly in most cases are integrated in postcalculation data of material supplies or system/ equipment supplies, i.e. these are included in the following subcategories. 2. Materials Steel (half raw materials, subassemblies) 3. Materials Pipes and Ducts (half raw materials, subassemblies) 4. Materials Paint, Coating (paints, painting services) 5. Systems/Equipment Ship Operation (steering gear, anchor, deck machinery, life saving equipment, MARPOL equipment, general outfitting components) 6. Systems/Equipment Cargo Handling Equipment and Special Cargo Plants (cranes, sucker, conveyors, cargo lift, hatch covers, Ro Ro doors and ramps, trailerlifts, cargohold outfitting and fittings, HVAC for cargo holds, LNG/LPG plants, fishing vessel equipment, special equipment for dredgers, offshore ships equipment production, processing, drilling, exploration, etc.) Marine Supplies Industry Structure Simplified Structure of 10 Supply Trades 7. Systems/Equipment Accommodation (preprepared cabins, doors, windows, walls, ceilings, coverings, floor coverings, carpets, staircases, railings, lifts, sanitary rooms, swimming pool equipment, accessories, equipment for pantry, bar, restaurant, food storage, laundry, furniture and decoration etc.) 8. Systems/Equipment Propulsion, Power Generation (diesel engines, boiler, steam turbines, gas turbines, gears and couplings, propeller, shaft and bearings, accessories, auxiliary engines (diesel), auxiliary boilers, etc) 9. Systems/Equipment Auxiliary Systems, Apparatus & Accessories for engine operation, ship operation, cargo handling, accommodation (seawater cooling, fresh water cooling, fuel systems, lub oil systems, exhaust system, engine starting system, steam systems, heating systems, ballast water, fire fighting, deck washing, pressurized air, tank heating, cargo hold heating and cooling, cargo pumps, inert gas plants, tank cleaning, tank heating, drinking water, sanitation hot/coldwater/sewage, HVAC, waste disposal, swimming pool technology, general engine room outfitting, roll damping, anti heeling systems, active stabilizers, etc.) 10.Systems/Equipment Electrical Plants and Electronic Systems (main plants, generators, batteries, cable trays, cables, fittings, e engines, lighting (all rooms and decks), electrical heating, alarm and control systems (ship automation, remote engine control, monitoring, cargo control, communication systems, nautical equipment (compass, radar, log, sat receiver, ECDIS, weather plotter), navigational lighting, entertainment systems (audio, video, cinema, theatre, meeting rooms, hotel management, clocks)

4 Value chains in shipbuilding ( Subcontractor ) Sub Assembly/Service Material Suppliers Steel/Pipes/Paint Shipyards Subcontractor Design/Engineering ( Subcontractor ) Assembly/Service System/Component Suppliers Manufacturer +/ 30% +/ 30% +/ 40% Average World Market for Marine Supplies 149 bn /a ( )

5 Shipbuilding, Boatbuilding Repair EU 28 EU 28 Shipbuilding, boatbuilding and repair of ships and boats aggreagted total production value, purchase value and employment Total production value Total purchase value Total employment Prodcution and purchase value in mill Number of employees 0 0 Source: Eurostat, BALance TC Shipbuilding, Boatbuilding Repair EU 28

6 Shipbuilding, Boatbuilding Repair EU 28 National Portfolios Shown numbers and figures are indicative and for demonstration only!!

7 Production Value (abt. 41,5% world production) EU 28 alone: 52,5 bn (abt. 35% world production) Export Value abt. 44% of the production goes into export abt. 33% is ex EU 28+N+TR export abt. 11% is inner European trade

8 Number of Enterprises (~ based on analysis of type approvals)

9 Employment Trends Shipbuilding, Boatbuilding Repair EU 28 Ratio purchase value / production value 85% Italy Germany Korea Japan USA EU 28 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% Source: OECD, Eurostat, BALance TC

10 Post 2007 Trends per Country Post 2007 Trends per Country

11 Future Projection Marine Supplies Economic drivers and market outlook for 7 markets including market forecast Shipbuilding, Shiprepair, Retrofitting, Naval Shipbuilding and MRO, Boatbuilding Offshore Oil&Gas, Offshore Wind Marine Supplies Market Forecast Offshore driven market >33% (without repair and conversion)

12 Shipbuilding Forecast Offshore (floating) dominates the shipbuilding market >130bn USD ~32% Shipbuilding Forecast % +4% Offshore (floating) dominates the shipbuilding market >130bn USD ~32% Dredgers +5%

13 Shipbuilding Forecasts Analysis Ratio based on USD The dominant supply trades are propulsion and power generation with about 45 billion USD, followed by cargo systems (35 billion USD), steel and auxiliary systems (both 30 billion USD) and accommodation with 21 billion USD

14 More than 50% of the demand is coming from China and Korea, followed by EU 27, Japan and rest of Asia with about equal shares and 12% for the rest of the world. Korea creates the highest single demand for cargo systems, caused by the huge orderbook on offshore production and drilling vessels with extremely costly processing plants Special Effect Offshore

15 Europe creates the highest demand on accommodation systems, caused by the market leading orderbook for cruise ships and superyachts Special Effect Cruise, Yacht Marine Supplies Market Forecast

16 Other Marine Supplies Markets (~63% total marine supply market, ~87 bn USD) 18,5 bn/a USD Ship Maintenance, Repair and Conversion Market Drivers: Fleet utilisaton, Trade Volume, Scrapping/Newbuilding Scenarios (30% World Fleet > 25 years) 5,1 bn USD/a Retrofitting Market (CO2, SOx, Nox, Ballast Water) Driver: Environmental Legislation, IMO Regulations 8,1 bn USD/a Offshore Oil & Gas Market (fixed installations) Total CAPEX 700 bn Euro/5 years 1/3 deep sea, 2/3 shallow water Drivers: World Energy demand, Energy mix 9,6 bn USD/a Offshore Wind Total CAPEX until 2020 abt. 130 bn USD Drivers: World Energy demand, Energy mix, Environmental Legislation 27 bn USD/a + 6 bn USD/a (MRO) Naval Expenditures Total CAPEX until 2031 abt. 745 bn USD Drivers: World Conflicts, Rising Nations, Balance of Power (Emerging countries) 12,5 bn USD/a Boatbuilding incl. superyachts <500GT, Drivers: world wealth, attractiveness of yachting + 13,0 bn/a USD Offshore Subsea Market Drivers: Offshore O&G, World Energy demand, Energy mix, Long Term: Deep Sea Mining and Exploration, Marine Science + Harbour Technologies, + Shipyard Technologies, + Coastal Engineering + Marine Safety and Security Technologies, + Traffic Control Technologies + environmental surveillance and cleaning, + Polar Technologies, Marine Science Technologies Economic Drivers Offshore, Offshore, Offshore Niche Shipypes with high technology content (Pax, Chemical, RoRo, LNG, NCCV ) Bunker Price Change of Paradigm: OPEX drives CAPEX MARPOL VI, SECA s Nox, Sox, Particulates, EEDI Ballast Water Convention Retrofitting Innovation and Technology needed all over the place

17 Download the study Benutzername: MarineSupply Passwort: BAL_EU2014