Jet Fuel Prices ($/mt) Diesel (ULSD) Prices ($/mt) Gasoil Prices ($/mt) Jet in Late Afternoon Price Boost
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1 7 December 2017 Jet Fuel Prices ($/mt) Spot Diff (LS Gasoil) Change Outright Change Low High Current Cal Prior Cal Barge Fob NWE Fob NWE Cif Med Fob Diesel (ULSD) Prices ($/mt) Spot Diff (LS Gasoil) Change Outright Change Low High Current Cal Prior Cal Barge Fob NWE Fob NWE Cif Baltic Fob Med Fob Med Cif Gasoil Prices ($/mt) Spot Diff (LS Gasoil) Change Outright Change Low High Current Cal Prior Cal Barge Fob 0.1% NWE Fob NWE Cif Med Fob Med Cif ppm Barge Fob ICE Brent and LS Gasoil Futures at 16:30 London Jet in Late Afternoon Price Boost Brent ($/bbl) LS Gasoil ($/mt) European jet prices rose sharply just before the market closed, with both the outright price and spot differentials seeing last minute increases. The December future settled only $3.25/ton higher from Wednesday but the move appeared more sudden with prices flat-lining for most of the day. In the barge market, Vitol started bidding early in the day showing at plus $47/ton over the LSG December contract for product basis Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Ghent. The trading house increased the price to plus $49/ton in the last 20 minutes before the 4.30 p.m. close, but failed to attract sellers. Brokers reported the market was also offered on another platform at December plus $45/ton by Castleton Commodities for barrels basis Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp. Castleton s offer was for Dec loading dates, in seller's option, while Vitol s bid was for Dec dates.. ( Continued on Page 2 ) Copyright by Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), an IHS Markit company, 9737 Washingtonian Blvd. Suite 200, Gaithersburg, MD The Europe Jet, Diesel & Gasoil Report is published each business day. OPIS does not guarantee the accuracy of these prices. Reproduction of this report without permission is prohibited. To order copies or a limited copyright waiver, contact OPIS Customer Service at (U.S. only), or energycs@opisnet.com.
2 ULSD Cif es Northwest Europe and the Med Jet Cif es Northwest Europe and Fob FARAG Barges ( Continued from Page 1 ) Vitol s bidding interest resulted in OPIS450 Thursday assessment at LSG Dec. plus $47.06/ton, while the overnight indicator was set at LSG Dec. plus $49/ton with Vitol still active on the screen at the close. Elsewhere, the jet cargo market returned to its usual lull Thursday. Eight bidding indications reported by brokers Thursday were again faced with no offers and lack of trading. The CIF cargo market differential was set unchanged at December plus $45.50/ton, based on the swaps forward curve. Litasco, who was a seller on both cargo and barge markets Wednesday, was not offering Thursday. The Flushing refinery, the 160,000 b/d Zeeland plant, which Litasco co-owns with Total, is back online, market sources told OPIS. The plant was down for planned work for most of November. The lull of cargo trading Thursday coupled with subdued cargo arbitrage booking. Brokers reported only one fresh fixture Thursday, a 40,000 tons Miss Marina, on charter to Vitol to load from Yanbu for UKC route around Dec. 10. The trading house reportedly is paying $850,000 for the journey. The single fixture comes with relatively lower import volumes into Europe in December. OPIS is currently tracking about million tons of east of Suez imports of jet, significantly lower than 2.3 million in November, with some of the fixture holding other discharge options. Jet es with Options to Arrive in Europe during December STI Precision, 65kt, ATC, Dec. 2 BW Lioness, 33kt, Cepsa, Dec. 2 Ardmore Seafox, 40kt, Valero, Dec. 3 OPIS Freight Assessment $/mt Augusta Rotterdam (30kt) ( Continued on Page 3 ) Middle Distillate Barges Fob Rotterdam ($/mt) Last 8 months outright price and linear trend ($/mt) Page 2 of 7 OPIS, an IHS Markit company
3 500ppm Gasoil vs ICE LS Gasoil Futures (EFS) FOB Sing Gasoil LS Gasoil M+1 Difference Change 30-day average Dec Jan Jet and Diesel Indicative Arbitrage to NWE From Fob value Freight (last done) Value NWE Spread Time Stamp Jet Fob AG (LR2) :30 Jet Korea (LR2) :30 ULSD US Gulf (MR) :30 FPMC P Fortune, 60kt, Chevron, Dec. 4 Torm Venture, 60kt, KPC, Dec. 7 Citrus, 40kt, Total, Dec. 8 Kriti Amber, 35kt, GPIC, Dec. 11 Golden Shiner, 60kt, BP, Dec. 10 Maersk Piper, 95kt, BP, Dec. 10 Iris Victoria, 60kt, BP, Dec. 12 SKS Darent, 90kt, BP, Dec. 12 Hafnia Asia, 65kt, Koch, Dec. 12 BW Lena, 60kt, Total, Dec. 13 Torm Lotte, 40kt, Trafigura, Dec. 14 Hafnia Africa, 60kt, BP, Dec. 14 Maersk Malaga, 40kt, Total, Dec. 15 Torm Laura, 35kt, Cepsa, Dec. 18 Nord Larkspur, 65kt, ATC, Dec. 17 Front Sirius, 90kt, Total, Dec. 17 Freight Margie, 60kt, Trafigura, Dec. 19 Sea Legend, 90kt, BP, Dec. 22 Ocean Spirit, 40kt, Trafigura, Dec. 22 Nave Atropos, 60kt, Total, Dec. 23 Marika, 65kt, BP, Dec. 24 Nave Titan, 35kt, BP, Dec. 24 Norstar Intrepid, 60kt, Total, Dec. 25 Torm Signe, 65kt, Total, Dec. 25 Alburaq, 90kt, Shell, Dec. 26 Sabetta, 90kt, Shell, Dec. 27 Diesel Diffs Slide in NWE on Rising Supply ( Continued from Page 2 ) Low sulfur gasoil futures were trading sideways before clawing back some losses late in the session Thursday, ( Continued on Page 4 ) Historical and Projected Jet and ULSD Imports into EU (million tonnes) Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep* Oct* Nov* Dec* ULSD Jet Page 3 of 7 OPIS, an IHS Markit company
4 OPIS Worldwide Outright Jet and ULSD Prices ($/mt) Outright Change Date and London Time 3-day avg Jet Cif NWE Dec 16: Jet Fob Med Dec 16: Jet Fob AG (LR1) Dec 09: Jet Fob Singapore Dec 09: Jet Fob Korea Dec 09: Jet GC Close Dec 22: ULSD Cif NWE Dec 16: ULSD Cif Med Dec 16: ULSD GC Close Dec 22: Gasoil 500ppm Sing Dec 09: OPIS Ticking Price Derived Outright Change Net CIF NWE Date and London Time 3-day avg Jet NYH Ticker Dec 16: Jet GC Ticker Dec 16: ULSD GC Ticker Dec 16: International Jet Fuel Prices (trailing 3-day avg) International ULSD Prices (trailing 3-day avg) ( Continued from Page 3 ) having slumped yesterday on release of U.S. inventory data which showed a larger than expected distillate inventory build. The December contract settled $3.25/ton higher at $549/ton according to data from the exchange. Inventories of diesel and heating oil rose by 1.7 million bbls, despite refiners pushing out a record 5.4 million-b/d of diesel following continued strong export demand to Latin America. Europe has seen anaemic levels of transatlantic cargos from the U.S. Gulf in recent weeks as a result, which kept prices largely supported during refinery turnaround season. However, a sharp increase in Russian loadings planned for December following the completion of a pipeline extension, coupled with domestic refineries returning from maintenance, is beginning to weigh on the complex. Inland diesel barge demand has also weakened since the start of the month, with spot traded volumes dropping over the course of the week according to brokers. A total of 13,450 tons changed hands during electronic trading today, with Glencore emerging as the only seller of prompt loading volumes, with clips trading mostly flat to December futures. Meanwhile, inventories of diesel and gasoil held in independent storage in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam refining hub has remained steady week-on-week, according to data released today from the consultancy PJK International. Stocks fell 19,000 tons to million tons in the week to Dec. 7, as a rise in inland gasoil barge demand was offset by returning refinery output and arrivals of diesel cargoes from the Baltics and U.S. differentials in northwest Europe ticked lower at the market close, with a well offered market failing to lure interested buyers on ample end-month arrivals. Tracked exports of diesel from the East have also creeped up in recent days, with volumes en route or retaining options to discharge in the region now surpassing 1 million tons according to OPIS tanker tracking. Fresh fixtures reported by ship brokers during the day include the SKS Doyle, Clio and Ellie Lady which were on subjects to load 90,000 tons each of diesel from Saudi Arabia during the second decade of the month with specific U.K. Continent options. With a narrowing EFS making the arbitrage economics increasingly difficult to work on paper, charterers were increasingly requesting options for discharge in locations such as East Africa, Singapore and Morocco. The Nordmarlin, which had been chartered by Trafigura to load 90,000 tons of diesel from Sikka on Nov. 25 for a U.K. Continent had appeared to have turned around in the Red Sea according to OPIS tanker tracking, and was heading away from the Suez canal in a possible sign that falling diesel prices were dissuading cargoes from heading west. IATA Sees More Expensive Fuel Bills in 2018 The International Air Transport Association (IATA) anticipates higher fuel bills for the world's airlines in 2018 and predicts that the price of a gallon of jet fuel will increase next year at a faster clip than crude oil. ( Continued on Page 5 ) Page 4 of 7 OPIS, an IHS Markit company
5 Distillate differential and outright swaps at 16:30 Jet NWE Jet NWE Jet Barge Swap Jet Barge ULSD NWE ULSD NWE ULSD Barge Swap ULSD Barge December January Quarter Quarter Gasoil NWE Gasoil NWE Gasoil Barge Swap Gasoil Barge Gasoil Med Gasoil Med ULSD Med ULSD Med December January Quarter Quarter ICE Brent and LS Gasoil (ULSD) Futures at 16:30 Product Dec Jan Feb Mar Brent ($/bbl) Spread Change LS Gasoil ($/mt) Spread Change Analyst Forecasts for Future Brent Crude Prices Analyst Brent /bbl Period Stamp* BNP Paribas Q4 Oct Deutsche Bank Q4 Oct DnB NOR Q4 Oct Energy Aspects Q4 Oct Goldman Sachs Q4 Oct JBC Energy Q4 Oct ( Continued from Page 4 ) IATA projects Brent crude prices for 2018 will average $60/bbl, or 10.7% higher than the $54.20/bbl price they have averaged so far in Jet fuel prices are expected to rise even more quickly to $73.80/bbl, or $1.76/gal, which would exceed 2017's price by 12.5%. Overall airline fuel bills for 2018 are expected to be 20.5% of airline operating costs, up from 18.8% in IATA believes that airlines with low levels of hedging (like carriers in the U.S. and China) will feel the biggest brunt of higher fuel prices, while airlines with a larger percentage of fuel hedges (those in Europe) will be cushioned a bit from higher fuel expenses. At the moment, forward prices for Brent crude are higher than $60/bbl, but prices are cheaper on the forward curve, dipping from over $62/bbl from February 2018 barrels to $60.60/bbl for December A number of experts earlier in 2017 looked for cheaper fuel prices in 2018, but some of those projections have been revised since OPEC agreed to extend its crude oil supply production cuts through the end of Goldman Sachs, for example, just hiked is crude oil pricing targets for 2018 with Brent to average $62/bbl and WTI $57.50/bbl. Lower global inventories provide the foundation for Goldman's higher projections. ( Continued on Page 7 ) Page 5 of 7 OPIS, an IHS Markit company
6 Clean jet prices and carbon futures $/mt Clean spread Outright Clean Jet Change Stamp Cif NWE Dec Fob Med Dec ICE Carbon Futures (/mt) Price Change Price $ Clean Spread CER Dec EUA Dec Ratio of Barge Price to Rolling Brent Crude at 16:30 London OPIS Europe Jet, Diesel and Gasoil Report Methodology: OPIS assesses trades and market deals over a full trading day from 9.30am to 4.30pm. Based on this data, OPIS calculates a simple average of differentials which are added to the official settlement of the ICE gasoil contract at 4.30pm London time. A more complete summary of OPIS full-day price methodology is found at Editorial staff: Paddy Gourlay (UK) pgourlay@opisnet.com, +44 (0) , ICE chat: paddygourlay. Anthony Lane (UK) alane@opisnet.com, +44 (0) , ICE chat: anthonylaneopis. Paulina Lichwa-Garcia (UK) plichwa-garcia@opisnet.com, +44 (0) , ICE chat: plichwagarcia. Alex Pearce (UK) apearce@opisnet.com, +44 (0) , ICE chat: apearce5. Rob Sheridan (UK) rsheridan@opisnet.com, +44 (0) , ICE chat: rsheridan3. Sales Director, Europe: Simon Pratt (UK) spratt@opisnet.com, +44 (0) , ICE chat: spratt2. Director, Content and Business Development, Europe: Tim Wright (Sweden) twright@opisnet.com, +46 (0) , ICE chat: twright13. Exchange Rate and prices in Euros Change Dollars per Euro Jet Barge Fob NWE Jet Cif Med Jet Fob ULSD Barge Fob NWE ULSD Cif Med ULSD Cif ppm Barge Fob Product $/bbl Price Change Gasoil barge ppm barge ppm barge Jet barge Rolling Brent * The Rolling Brent assessment smooths out the curve between front and second month ICE Brent contracts on expiry. Each new trading day, Rolling Brent takes proportionally less account of the front month and more of the second month. Page 6 of 7 OPIS, an IHS Markit company
7 ( Continued from Page 5 ) Finally, for airlines, labor costs have been accelerating faster than fuel expenses and are now a larger expense than fuel and projected to be 30.9% of expenses in Upstream to See Strongest 2018 Earnings Upside; Refining Lowest: Moody's The upstream, midstream and downstream earnings outlooks for 2018 are expected to be positive, according to Moody's Investors Service. The upstream segment has the strongest earnings outlook for the energy sector in 2018, followed by midstream. The refining and marketing subsector and the integrated oil and gas subsector have the lowest upside for 2018 earnings in the energy sector. Moody's outlook is stable for the integrated oil and gas subsector over the next 12 to 18 months. EBITDA will grow by about 5%, even as investment conditions remain strained as companies seek greater returns on upstream investments. A return to positive free cash flow could compel major European companies to reinstate cash dividends. Moody's outlook for the exploration and production sector remains positive, with EBITDA likely to grow by more than 10% in 2018 amid increasing production volumes, helped by modestly higher capital spending. Service-cost inflation, though currently contained, could rise in certain markets. The outlook for drilling and oilfield services companies is also positive, with EBITDA likely to grow 10% to 12% as upstream capital spending and the global rig count continue to rise. But the positive outlook represents an improvement for a sector that remains very weak, rather than a return to full health. North American land markets will have the best margin opportunities, while segments related to well completion will see the largest year-on-year price increases. Offshore markets, however, will have another weak year. Moody's outlook for the midstream segment is positive as well, with EBITDA likely to grow 8% to 10% in Both upstream capital spending and production will increase. While the U.S. federal regulatory climate supports the midstream sector, state and local regulations are likely to continue to pose hurdles. The outlook for the refining and marketing sector is stable, with EBITDA likely to grow 5% to 7% in Demand for distillates will remain strong, helping to ease high inventory levels, and Middle Eastern fuels will gradually displace European products. Meanwhile, the energy industry will continue its slow recovery as upstream companies increase production, helping the midstream and services sectors as well, the rating agency said. Excess supply will continue to dampen oil prices in the coming year, Moody's said in its 2018 outlook for the global oil and gas sector. Natural gas prices, on the other hand, will benefit from higher demand, but price gains will still be limited. "Prolonged oversupply will constrain oil prices in the next one to two years, though OPEC-led production cuts have now stabilized around price-supportive levels," said Steve Wood, Moody's managing director for oil and gas. "We expect prices to remain within the $40 to $60 per barrel band through 2019, assuming continued compliance with global production targets." Meanwhile, enormous reserves of natural gas will begin to provide economic returns for many producers at $3.00/MMBtu amid increased demand, Wood says. Storage levels, though still above the five-year average, are improving, while U.S. production is likely to grow again in 2018 after flattening in Page 7 of 7 OPIS, an IHS Markit company
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