The Outlook on Mobile Emissions for the 21 st Century

Transcription

1 The Outlook on Mobile Emissions for the 21 st Century Dr. James J. Eberhardt, Director U.S. Department of Energy Presented at the DOE Crosscut Workshop on Lean Emissions Reduction Simulation Knoxville, TN May 7-8, 2001 OHVT Mission To conduct, in collaboration with our heavy vehicle industry partners and their suppliers, a customer-focused national program to research and develop technologies that will enable trucks and other heavy vehicles to be more energy efficient and able to use alternative fuels while simultaneously reducing emissions.

2 The Outlook on Mobile Emissions for the 21 st Century The Transportation Energy Situation Creating Transportation Options for the 21 st Century The Future of Combustion Engines in Transportation Transportation and Urban Air Quality The Outlook on Mobile Emissions for the 21 st Century Summary Outline

3 Rationale for a Heavy Vehicle Technologies R&D Program Since the 1973 Oil Embargo All of the Increase in U.S. Surface Transportation Fuel Consumption has been due to Heavy Vehicles Energy Use - Million Barrels per Day Actual Railroad Projected Marine Off-Highway Class 3-8 Trucks Class 1-2 Trucks (Pickups, Vans, SUVs) Automobiles Sources: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2000, DOE/EIA- 0383(2000), December 1999 Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 20, DOE/ORNL- 6959, October 2000

4 The Transportation Sector Is Almost Totally Dependent on Liquid Carbon-Based Fuels Transportation Energy Consumption, 1997 Natural Gas Electricity 2.8% 0.2% 97% Petroleum Source: DOE/EIA Monthly Energy Review; July 1998

5 Creating Transportation Options for the 21st Century

6 Transportation Energy Conversion Technology R&D History of Promising Alternatives 1960s Steam (Rankine cycle) engines 1970s Gas turbines Stirling engines 1980s Adiabatic engines Alternative fuels 1990s Hybrids Fuel cells

7 Transportation Energy Conversion Technology R&D Rankine Cycle Engine ($24M) Automotive Stirling ($142M) Automotive Gas Turbine ($393M) EV Battery (>$410M) Fuel Cell (>$150M) Hybrid (>$220M) Less than $5M in a given year Greater than $5M in a given year Program Terminated

8 Alternatives to Carbon-based Fuels As a chemical storage system, we have no practical substitute for the C-C bond. Gas Room Temp Transition Liquid Hydrogen Methane Ethane Propane Butane Pentane Hexane Octane Nonane Cetane Enthalpy of Combustion (kcal/mol)

9 Energy Density of Fuels 1,200 1, Thousand Btu per ft Diesel Fuel F-T Gasoline LNG Ethanol Methanol CNG Liquid (@ 3626 H 2 psi) CNG Compressed Diesel (@ 3626 psi) Hydrogen (@ 3626 psi) NiMH Battery

10 Comparison of Energy Conversion Efficiencies Fuel Cell-Stored Hydrogen Fuel Cell-Stored Hydrogen Fuel Cell-Methanol Reformer Compression-Igniton, Heavy Duty Diesel Engine Compression-Ignition Direct-Injection ICE Gas Turbine Gasoline Direct Injection Conventional Conventional Spark ICE Ignition ICE Today's Capability Projected Capability (2004) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Peak Thermal Efficiency (%)

11 Vehicle Range Limitation - Challenge To Be Overcome By Alternatives Diesel Engine- Conv. Diesel Fuel Diesel Engine- F-T Diesel Fuel Cell - Gasoline Direct Injection Engine- Gasoline Adv. NG Engine- CNG (3,600 psi) Fuel Cell- Hydrogen (3,600 psi) Comparison of Miles Driven (Same Volume of On-Board Fuel)

12 Creating Transportation Options for the 21st Century Combustion Engines Are Still the Most Viable for Future Heavy Vehicles

13 Transportation and Urban Air Quality Congestion and Criteria Pollutant Emissions Are National Concerns, Especially In Urban Areas Population and miles traveled continue to increase resulting in increasing congestion and air pollution As a result, over 100 million people live in areas not meeting National Ambient Air Quality Standards (EPA, Oct. 1995) Millions of short tons All Other Sources Transportation Sources 0 CO NOX VOC

14 Decreasing Diesel Engine Emissions NOx (gm/hp-hr) NOx 1987 Models 1988 Models 1991 Models 1994 Models Particulates Consent Decree EPA/CARB 2004 (SOP) Particulates (gm/hp-hr) YEAR Source: Cummins, modified by DOE

15 Progress in Reducing Emissions Integrated systems approach Progress made in all 3 areas Partnerships with leading industry suppliers, truck/auto manufacturing, energy companies, and national labs Cross-cutting applications Fuels Emission Controls Engine Combustion Auto Light Truck Heavy Truck

16 NRC Review of the DOE Heavy Vehicle Technologies Program Recommendation 3 The Office of Heavy Vehicle Technologies (OHVT) should reevaluate its priorities and increase its support for projects focused on overcoming the most critical barriers to success. For example, meeting emissions standards will be critical to OHVT s program on advanced combustion engines. Therefore, emissions should be a major focus of this program. National Research Council, Review of the U.S. Department of Energy s Heavy Vehicle Technologies Program, Washington DC, Bolding and italicizing provided for emphasis.

17 NRC Review of the DOE Heavy Vehicle Technologies Program Recommendation 4 The should place a high priority on integrated emissions-control technology (engine combustion and after-treatment technologies) to meet future emission requirements. National Research Council, Review of the U.S. Department of Energy s Heavy Vehicle Technologies Program, Washington DC, Bolding and italicizing provided for emphasis.

18 Outlook on Emissions from Combustion Engines for the 21st Century

19 Outlook on Mobile Emissions The last three years have been very good for reducing mobile emissions.

20 EPA Emissions Standards February 10, 2000 EPA adopted Tier 2 Emissions Standards which became effective April 10, (Includes reducing sulfur levels in gasoline to 30 ppm.) December 2000 EPA adopted heavy-duty diesel engine emissions standards to be phased in January 18, 2001 EPA issued rule requiring 80 percent of all on-road diesel fuel to have less than 15 ppm sulfur starting in 2006.

21 EPA Emissions Standards Tier 2 Regulations for Light-Duty Vehicles (LDVs): 0.07 g/mi NOx and 0.01 g/mi PM; represents 77 to 95% reduction from Tier 1 levels Includes all LDVs under 10,000 lbs Phased in Heavy-Duty Diesel Engine Regulations: 0.2 g/bhp-hr NOx and 0.01 g/bhp-hr PM; represents about 90% reduction from 2004 regs Phased in Heavy-duty regulations include ultra-low sulfur diesel fuel

22 Outlook on Mobile Emissions Environmental Groups (UCS, NRDC, etc.) Government (DOE,EPA,CARB,SCAQMD) Industry (Vehicle/Engine Manufacturers, Fuel Providers, API) What Can Be Accomplished By Working Together

23 Nouveau Romanticism A disturbing trend in which subjective feeling is substituted for objective reality.

24 Nouveau Romanticism American impatience; Causes Bifurcation of Authority and Responsibility - no accountability for poor policy decisions not based on scientific evidence or engineering reality; Individuals or groups feel and come to believe they are right, therefore, they demand instant solutions or want to impose or coerce political solutions not necessarily based on scientific evidence. Scientists, due to competition for R&D funds, have compromised objectivity in some cases.

25 Politics - The Art of pandering to the least informed opinion. - JJE

26 Nouveau Romanticism Example Trend toward contentiousness in the debate over how to achieve improved air quality

27 Can There Be Such A Thing As A Clean Diesel? Contention Between Scientific Facts and the Beliefs of Environmental Activists Scientific Approach Repeated experimentation, observation, testing Methodical but slow Nouveau Romanticism Proof by assertion! Quick and easy but likely to lead to bad policy or wrong solution There is no accountability for poor policy decisions based on emotion and unsupported by scientific evidence or engineering reality.

28 Many Groups Concerned About Diesels Union of Concerned Scientists American Lung Association American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy Environmental and Energy Study Institute Natural Resources Defense Council Sierra Club Environmental Protection Agency California Air Resources Board South Coast Air Quality Management District Council on Environmental Quality

29 Nouveau Romanticism Proof by Assertion! - Assert a cause or solution to solve the problem Recent government-sponsored emissions tests of the newest, cleanest diesels have been unimpressive. (NRDC, Exhausted by Diesel; How America s Dependence on Diesel Engines Threatens Our Health, April 1998) At a minimum, regulators should close historic loopholes that permit diesel cars to pollute more than those powered by gasoline. (UCS website: It s time to end the free ride for big rigs. (UCS website: act/act_bigdiesel.html)

30 Nouveau Romanticism Nouveau Romanticists rely on Proof by Assertion or Proof by Feelings We Believe

31 Nouveau Romanticism Believe to accept trustfully and on faith* *Webster s New Collegiate Dictionary

32 I believe You believe does that mean, you do not know? Excerpted from The King and I

33 EPA Report on Comparing Cancer Risk of Gasoline and Diesel Particulate Matter On the Carcinogenicity of Gasoline PM... Most Recent EPA Assessment At this time there exists no official EPA document detailing the carcinogenicity evidence relating to gasoline particulate matter. Recent and Ongoing Research None are available at this time.

34 EPA Report Comparing Cancer Risk of Gasoline and Diesel Particulate Matter Source: Motor Vehicle-Related Air Toxics Study, Technical Support Branch, Emission Planning and Strategies Division, Office of Mobile Sources, Office of Air and Radiation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, April 1993.

35 Comparison of Diesel and Gasoline Emissions In vitro Genotoxic Activities of Diesel and Gasoline Engine Emissions Objective: to examine potential air quality impacts that would be caused by exhaust emissions from mobile sources fueled by conventional petroleumbased fuels and alternative transportation fuels. A study being performed by: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); and US National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) For: the US Department of Energy/Office of Heavy Vehicle Technology (DOE/OHVT) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

36 NIOSH Study Objective measure genotoxic activities in vitro (in cells in test tubes) Mutagenic activity; DNA damage; chromosome damage for diesel and gasoline engine exhaust particulate material (PM2.5) semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOC)

37 Agents and assays Exhaust particulate (PM 2.5) and SVOC from chassis dynamometer-tested gasoline autos and light-duty diesel vehicles: test acetone extracts of PM2.5 and SVOC sorbent resins, and surfactant dispersions of PM2.5. Assays: Salmonella Typh. Strains YG 1024 and 1029 (Ames), with and without S9 activation. Chromosomal damage: Micronucleus induction in V 79 mammalian cells DNA damage: Single-cell gel electrophoresis in V 79 cells

38 Test Vehicles Average Diesel (72 o F) 1998 Mercedes Benz E Dodge Ram Volkswagen Beetle Average Gasoline (72 o F, 30 o F) Black smoker gasoline (72 o F) 1982 Nissan Maxima 1976 Ford F Mercury Sable 1994 GMC 1500 White smoker gasoline (72 o F) 1995 Ford Explorer 1990 Mitsubishi Montero 1996 Mazda Millenia *Test Vehicles Used In Lovelace Study

39 Diesel and Gasoline Emissions Have Similar Mutagenic Activity per Unit Mass Example (Engine Out) Source: Lovelace Research Institute, Preliminary Results (with Catalytic Converter)

40 Multiple-Tier Estimates of Carcinogenic Potential Summary of Preliminary Results Sample Mutagenicity DNA Damage Chromosomal Damage Diesel PM Weak? Weak? Diesel SVOC + Weak? Weak? Gasoline PM Gasoline SVOC bacterial cell mutagenicity (e.g., Ames test) mammalian cell DNA damage in vitro, chromosomal damage in vitro SVOC Semi-Volatile Organic Compounds

41 Interpretation of Preliminary Results The Diesel and Gasoline engine exhaust particulate extracts were mutagenic. The SVOC extracts were mutagenic but not as active as their PM2.5 extracts. The Gasoline engine PM2.5 and SVOC extracts were active mammalian cell genotoxicants. The Diesel engine PM2.5 and SVOC extracts were inactive or weakly active.

42 Comparison of Gasoline and Diesel Vehicle Emissions NOx g/mile Unleaded Fuel Introduced Gasoline SI NOx Gasoline SI PM Diesel NOx Diesel PM On-road Diesel Fuel sulfur drops Year DVECSE Phase 2 (3 PPM Sulfur) SIDI NOx SIDI PM PM mg/mile

43 Under Tier 2, diesel emissions must be on par with gasoline emissions Compared to diesel vehicles, mid-1990s data show that gasoline vehicles produce: More CO, HC, CO 2, CH 4, benzene, 1,3 butadiene, and ozone-forming reactive organic gases Less NOx, PM and aldehydes Experiments have shown that modern diesels can achieve the new Tier 2 emissions standards with state-of-the-art aftertreatment

44 Outlook on Mobile Emissions Government (DOE,EPA,CARB,SCAQMD) Industry (Vehicle/Engine Manufacturers, Fuel Providers, API) Environmental Groups (UCS, NRDC, etc.) The Alternative

45 Summary DOE s three-pronged diesel engine emissions control strategy is necessary to achieve very low emissions without sacrificing engine efficiency. Nouveau Romanticism has caused a growing trend toward contentiousness in the debate over how to achieve improved air quality. As a result there is no accountability for poor policy decisions based on emotion and unsupported by scientific evidence or engineering reality.

46 Is it time to reconsider the design of our automotive catalytic converter?