Argus US Ethanol. -- hhh. Price Summary. Overview. Ethanol. Biofuel Spreads. Ethanol

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1 Argus US US and market prices and analysis Issue Price Summary Price +/- (Argo) Harbor Fob Anhydrous USD/m Los Angeles Low CI CBOT Corn /bushel SME Harbor B SME Houston fob B SME fob B CBOT Soybean oil /pound Biofuel Spreads Crush Spread $/bushel Heating Oil/Soybean Oil Spread ethanol Overview US ethanol ended the day firmer Monday, with prices seen 1.75c-6.5c/USG higher depending on the location. RINs continued last week s climb, trading between 78 and 85c/RIN, 6c/RIN above Friday s assessment. The US RINs market continued its upwards movement Monday with 2013 ethanol and biodiesel RINs rising 6c/ RIN over Friday s assessed prices. The US biodiesel market was stable to firm Monday as and Houston B100 SME markets saw 1c gains over Friday s assessed prices. An offer for FOB Anhydrous EPA specification ethanol for May was heard at $700/m³, up $5 from offers heard Friday. Bids were seen at $650/m³ for parcels delivering in May, though ultimately, no trades were confirmed for the day LA ethanol vs ethanol US ethanol ended the day firmer Monday, with prices seen 1.75c-6.5c/USG higher depending on the location. RINs continued last week s climb, trading between 78 and 85c/RIN, 6c/RIN above Friday s assessment. Corn futures settled for the day up 4.5c, trading at 633.5c/bushel. futures followed suit, trading at 245.7c/USG, a 4c increase in day-over-day comparison. Rule 11 saw the biggest bump in price with two cargoes confirmed for delivery this week, seen trading at 255c/USG, up 6.5c from the previous week. Multiple trades were reported in the Argo market, up 5c/USG. Two deals for prompt transfer cargoes were confirmed at 249.5c and 250c/USG. Meanwhile, four parcels for transfer April traded between 253c and c/USG in the afternoon session. In Iowa on Union Pacific rails, a cargo was confirmed for delivery within the week at 250c/USG, up 3c from Friday s assessment. Page 1 of 5

2 Argus US Issue Low High +/- Argo Prompt Argo Any Apr Rule 11 Prompt Any Apr US Gulf Coast/South Gulf Coast (Houston) Tampa Atlanta Dallas Nebraska Union Pacific (UP) Burlington Northern (BNSF) US West Coast Los Angeles Low CI Los Angeles High CI Fob Anhydrous ($/m3) Fob Anhydrous (BRL/m3) Fob Hydrous ($/m3) Fob Hydrous (BRL/m3) Cif Anhydrous ($/m3) Cif Anhydrous (BRL/m3) Low/High Diff Low/High Price +/- SME Harbor B100 May / / SME Houston fob B100 May / / SME fob (rail) B100 May / / RINs /RIN Low High +/- RINs RINs Cellulosic RINs Advanced Biofuel RINs Forward Curves Apr / / May / / Jun / / Jul / / Futures Settlement +/- CBOT May Jun Jul Aug CBOT Corn /bushel May /bushel Jul /bushel Sep /bushel Dec CBOT Soybean Oil /pound May /pound Jul /pound Aug /pound Sep CBOT Soybeans /bushel May CBOT Soybean meal $/t May Nymex RBOB May Nymex RBOB Crack Spread $/barrel May Nymex Heating Oil May California Carbon Allowances $/mt Vintage Delivery Bid Ask Price +/ Dec Dec California Low-Carbon Fuel Credits* $/mt Vintage Bid Ask Price +/ *Assessment updated weekly. Assessment is as of 5-Apr. Current Month to Date Averages April 2013 Averages (Argo) Prompt Harbor Prompt Los Angeles Low CI SME Houston fob B SME fob B Related Markets Low High +/- RBOB Barge (83.7) CBOB Barge (83.7) Houston RBOB Colonial (83.7) Houston CBOB Colonial (85) Los Angeles CARBOB (84) month Houston ULSD Colonial Mont Belvieu Natural Gasoline Page 2 of 5

3 Argus US Issue RINs The US RINs market continued its upwards movement Monday with 2013 ethanol and biodiesel RINs rising 6c/RIN over Friday s assessed prices. RIN prices increased 11.5c/RIN since last Thursday s assessment of 70c/RIN. The 2013 ethanol credits traded between 78c and 85c/RIN for the day, up 6c from Friday. The 2013 biodiesel also saw strong growth in price since Thursday, trading 12c/RIN higher. Trades for the day were confirmed between 88c and 96c/RIN, a 6c increase. The US biodiesel market was stable to firm Monday as and Houston B100 SME markets saw 1c gains over Friday s assessed prices. The heating oil/soybean oil spread narrowed slightly Monday, seen at 23.97c/USG, 79pts lower than Friday s assessment as soybean oil strengthened by 69pts, trading at 49.52c/USG. Meanwhile, the May heating oil contract was up 4.39c, trading at c/USG. Soybeans traded at 1378c/bushel, a 16.25c increase. A trade for B100 SME was heard done in the Midwest at May Nymex +175c/USG for Q3 delivery. Houston B100 SME was up 1c/USG Monday being discussed between May Nymex +163 and Also up 1c, SME was heard offered at May Nymex +185c/USG, with no bids heard. An offer for FOB Anhydrous EPA specification ethanol for May was heard at $700/m³, up $5 from offers heard Friday. Bids were seen at $650/m³ for parcels delivering in May, though ultimately, no trades were confirmed for the day. Deals Done Market Price () Volume '000 Argo Apr bl Apr bl Apr bl Apr bl prompt bl prompt bl Rule Apr USG 8-13 Apr USG Iowa - Union Pacific 8-13 Apr USG RINs Deals Done Market Price ( /RIN) Volume '000 RINs , , , ,000 Deals Done Market Price Volume '000 Midwest B100 SME October - December Nymex USG ethanol vs Nymex RBOB Meanwhile, FOB Hydrous EPA ethanol was discussed between $570/m³ and $625/m³ for cargoes in June and July, however no deals were confirmed CIF Anhydrous EPA saw bids increase $5 to $625/m³ for parcels delivering in April. Offers for the same period rose $15 from Friday, being seen at $760/m³. News CME plans to roll out RIN contracts in May Exchange operator CME Group is slated to introduce futures Page 3 of 5

4 Argus US Issue contracts for ethanol and biodiesel renewable identification numbers (RINs), according to sources familiar with the development. CME plans to launch the contracts in May and will rely on Argus price assessments for both ethanol and biodiesel RINs. CME rival InterContinental Exchange (Ice) is also reportedly developing similar contracts for RINs, but those details remain unclear. An Ice spokesman did not return calls for comment. RINs represent individual gallons of biofuels that are produced. They are essential to US biofuel policy, which requires that refiners and importers ensure growing volumes of biofuels get blended into US fuel supplies. Obligated buyers each year submit RINs either acquired through their own blending operations or purchased from those who have them to demonstrate compliance with the federal mandate. But the system has proven susceptible to fraud and volatility. Millions of fake RINs in the biodiesel market burned refiners and other purchasers for millions in fines and replacement costs. And concern over the feasibility of physically complying with this year s federal biofuel requirements, as well as accusations of hoarding and market cornering, helped send the ethanol RIN market soaring above $1/RIN in March after starting the year at roughly a nickel. The price has since eased by about / RIN. confirms ethanol tax cut plan s finance minister Guido Mantega confirmed today the government is preparing a tax cut on ethanol as part of a broader tax-cut package. The planned reduction in the PIS/Cofins social security tax on ethanol would result in a real/l ( ) decline in the ethanol price at the mill gate, which could mean as much as a 10pc price drop at the pump for ian drivers. The tax cut would be the latest in a series of fiscal incentives offered by the ian government as part of its broader efforts to boost economic growth and revive investor interest. Mantega did not say when the tax break would go into effect, but indicated it would be soon. s center-south sugar cane crop is expected to reach 600mn t, up from 532mn t in the season that ended 31 March, due to increased replanting and a more favorable climate. awards biodiesel supply for May-June s oil and gas regulator ANP concluded its 30th biodiesel purchase auction, securing 488.5mn liters (3.1mn bl) at an average price of R1.98/liter (US$3.75/USG). The biodiesel will be used to fulfill the mandatory 5pc blend required in all commercial biodiesel sold in. The average price was down 10pc over the previous auction, held at the end of January, reflecting a decline in soybean prices traditionally seen at the beginning of the soy harvest. Soybeans remained the top feedstock for ian biodiesel production, responsible for 76pc, followed by beef tallow, with 17pc. Producers in s center-west region sold the largest volume of biodiesel in the auction (42pc), followed by producers in southern (38pc). The government raised the national mandatory blend to 5pc in all commercial diesel grades in January 2010, the maximum allowed by current legislation. The government is currently revising biodiesel regulations, which could allow for an increase in the blend. The ANP will conduct the next biodiesel auction in the last week of May or the first week of June. NYH ethanol vs Nymex RBOB Houston B100 SME vs Gulf Coast ULSD Page 4 of 5

5 Argus US Issue CANADA Argus Market Map LA less USA : LA less NE : Nebraska Rule 11 less NE : NY less : Rbob: Los Angeles Houston less : : Rbob: NY less Santos : LA less Santos : MEXICO Houston São Paulo, Price Assessment Methodology Argus US biofuels prices represent the market over the course of the entire trading day. Argus believes that a fair and representative price will include trade throughout the day. For biofuels in the US, Argus publishes the low and the high of deals done. In illiquid markets, Argus looks to assess the range within which product could have traded, based on bids and offers through the day, movements in similar grades, and a market consensus following extensive polling of participants. The Argus assessment is an intelligent range of trade not a mechanistic system. Price assessments in Argus US rely on a wide variety of sources for information, including discussion with refiners, marketers, importers, traders and brokers. Argus works to verify all deal prices, counterparties, and volumes. Argus values transparency, so we publish as much price, volume, and specification information as we discover. This allows you to cross check and verify the deals against the published prices. The details of our methodology are available at or by calling any Argus office. Argus US is published by Argus Media Inc. Registered office: Argus House, 175 St John St, London, EC1V 4LW Tel: Fax: sales@argusmedia.com ISSN Copyright notice. All rights reserved. By reading this publication you agree that you will not copy or reproduce any part of its contents (including, but not limited to, single prices or any other individual items of data) in any form or for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written consent of the publisher. Trademark notice ARGUS, ARGUS MEDIA, the ARGUS logo, ARGUS US ETHANOL, other ARGUS publication titles and ARGUS index names are trademarks of Argus Media Ltd. Visit for more information. Disclaimer The data and other information published herein (the Data ) are provided on an as is basis. Argus makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or completeness of the Data or fitness for any particular purpose. Argus shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any party s reliance on the Data and disclaims any and all liability related to or arising out of use of the Data to the full extent permissible by law. Publisher Adrian Binks Chief operating officer Neil Bradford CEO Americas Euan Craik Global compliance officer Jeffrey Amos Commercial manager Karen Johnson Editor in chief Ian Bourne Managing Editor, Global Cindy Galvin Managing Editor, Americas Jim Kennett Editor: David Ruisard Tel: houstonproducts@argusmedia.com Customer support and sales: support@argusmedia.com Technical support: technicalsupport@argusmedia.com Argus Media Inc, Houston, US Tel: Argus Media Inc,, US Tel: Argus Media Inc, Washington DC, US Tel: London, UK Tel: Astana, Kazakhstan Tel: Beijing, China Tel: Dubai Tel: Moscow, Russia Tel: Rio de Janeiro, Tel: Singapore Tel: Tokyo, Japan Tel: Page 5 of 5