Overview of the Biofuels Market. Timothy McCoy SCB Commodity Brokers
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1 Overview of the Biofuels Market Timothy McCoy SCB Commodity Brokers
2 Background Trinity College Graduate 2011 Civil, Structural & Environmental Engineering Trainee project manager with StructureTone in Dublin Applied and accepted into the first year of the MSc Energy and Environmental Finance Offered internship with SCB Commodity Brokers in January in London Asked to stay with SCB after internship ended
3 SCB Commodity Brokers Established in 2006 in Switzerland Expanded to Chicago in 2009, and London in Expanded further now with offices in Singapore, New York and Lisbon. Brokerage services - physical, derivatives and OTC swaps
4 SCB Commodity Brokers Renewables Soft & Agriculture Commodities Energy Research and Strategy
5 Internship Began 1 st June 2013 Finished 31 st August 2013 London office Research and Strategy Department Analyst Role
6 Project Example Analysis of soft commodity futures Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, Canola Last contract Date: 20-Aug Aug-13 PCA Eigenvector/Factor Loadings Corn vs. Soybeans to be further analyses Mean Reversion analysis of spread of contracts over time period Spread appears to be very wide compared to historical mean Trade Recommendation sell soybeans, buy corn at ratio of 1:2 contracts
7 SCB in the Market Awarding winning broker - Facilitate transactions between a buyers and a sellers Market leader in the biofuels space first company to broke EU ethanol and RME, FAME 0 biodiesel swaps Our market expertise and position allows us to provide customers with respected trade recommendations and analysis
8 SCB Products Renewables Ethanol Biodiesel RINs HVO Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil Used Cooking Oil Soft Commodities Grains corn, wheat, maize, rice Vegetable Oils palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean oil Gasoil Energy HOGO heating oil/gasoil spread Natural Gas Crude Oil
9 Transaction Type Physical Prices are quoted are premium/discount to gasoil futures contract Counterparties include producers, refiners and institutional investors Carries substantial risk emerging market, unknown counterparties Derivatives/Paper Prices quoted on exchanges NYMEX, CBOT, ICE Futures, spreads, options & swaps No counterparty risk all regulated via exchange terms and conditions Prices reflect transparent fair value
10 Derivatives Examples Chicago Ethanol Futures Contract December 13 Venue Chicago Mercantile Exchange Contract size 42,000 gallons Quoted - $/gallon Expiry Last business day of contract month Volume 1,368 Open interest 5,653 ICE Gasoil Futures Contract December 13 Venue Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Contract size 100 mt of gasoil Quoted $/mt Expiry 2 business days prior to the 14 th calendar day of the delivery month Volume 5,339 Open interest 128,610
11 Derivatives Examples
12 Derivatives Examples
13 Biofuels Market International Energy Agency (IEA) Statistics Key World Energy Statistics % of global energy supply comes from biofuels (1,311.3 Mtoe)
14 Biofuels Market OECD Agricultural Outlook Ethanol Production: , 853 million litres , 391 million litres 32% increase Consumption: , 664 million litres , 293 million litres 32% increase Biodiesel Production: , 507 million litres , 619 million litres 30% increase Consumption: , 507 million litres , 619 million litres 30% increase
15 Biofuels Market Participants Refiners Marketers Blenders Banks Hedge Funds
16 Market Driver Governmental Policy Instruments Taxes/Subsidies, Mandates US: Fixed Tax Credit - $1 of biodiesel blended
17 Blending Mandates Blending mandates are most common instruments 52 countries worldwide have implemented blending mandates Bulk of mandates within the EU 10% renewable fuel to be blended by US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) created in 2005 and expanded to the RFS2 in 2007 to established, under law, renewable fuel volumes each year, under four categories Standards -
18 Threats to Industry Food vs. fuel debate Land use change concerns Lobbying from different affected industry's e.g. oil industry.
19 Future Biofuels Industry Bullish outlook production and demand helped by governmental policy Concerns about influential lobby groups on current and future policy SCB Expand into more global commodities market. Gain foothold and presence in Asian veg oil market
20 Any Questions?
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