William Piel

Transcription

1 Fuel Options Exist for Expanding Gasoline Supplies without processing additional Crude Oil? E1? E2? E8? ETBE? Which use of in Fuel Provides the Highest Market Value? Which use of results in the Most Non-Petroleum Fuel? TEIR Associates, Inc William Piel July 2, 27 Potential RFS Volume Requirements Will Grow Substantially under Government Biofuel Proposals 4 Equiv. B Gal / yr Capacity 2% in1yr Plan SB 987 Minimum Non-Corn Max Corn RFS EPACT Proposed Senate Bills will increase RFS (renewable fuel standard) volumes to 3+ billion gallons per year. Note: Projected Capacity per RFA 1

2 Potential RFS Volume Requirements Will Grow Substantially under Government Biofuel Proposals 4 Equiv. B Gal / yr Capacity 2% in 1yr Plan SB 987? Minimum Non-Corn Max Corn RFS EPACT 2 E1 Limit How will ethanol use above E1 be satisfied? What will be the cost of a RFS credit? Note: Projected Capacity per RFA Center of Production Located Away From US Population Centers Driven by Agriculture Land Economics Production Plants 1 Mile Radius 6.3 B Gallon / yr end of 26 2

3 Most Gasoline Demand Located Near US Coastal Population Centers ~ 33% of US Gasoline Federal RFG & State Boutique Low RVP Fuel Programs Lower Blending Values ~ 3% of US Gasoline 3

4 Lower RVP Fuels may expand with the increase of Ozone Non-attainment Areas Will Federal RFG & Low Rvp Fuels Expand to All High Ozone Areas? ~ 7% of US Gasoline 4

5 Summer Market Share of US Gasoline Formulations ( Potential E1 Volumes in Billion Gallons per Year ) ( 1.7 B G/Yr ) California RFG 11% Mandate 2% (.3 B G/Yr ) Conventional Higher Octane 8% ( 1.2 B G/Yr ) Federal RFG 22% ( 3.3 B G/Yr ) Low RVP Gasolines 18% ( 2.7 B G/Yr ) Conventional Regular 39% (.8 B G/Yr ) ( 7.7 B G/Yr ) Lower Values for Higher Values for ( 7.3 B G/Yr ) Gasoline Redistributed from Refinery Centers and Coastal Import Ports

6 Most US Gasoline Flows Thru Fungible Pipeline Systems as Spec Octane Gasoline Distribution of Spec Octane Gasoline In Pipelines prevents Refiners from utilizing E1 s Octane (Octane Relief requires CBOB s and RBOB s) RVP Changes with in 7 RVP Summer Gasoline 9 8 E1 Increases RVP 1.2 psi Gasoline Mixture RVP psi as ETBE Reduces RVP In Gasoline Vol % 6

7 RVP Changes with in 7 RVP Summer Gasoline 9 8 E1 Increases RVP 1.2 psi Gasoline Mixture RVP psi as ETBE Reduces RVP above E1 Blends at. RVP In Gasoline Vol % E1 Blending Does Not Expand RVP Controlled Summer Gasoline Supplies Change In RFG Gasoline Supply Capability 2% 1% 1% % % -% -1% -1% Summer Reformulated Gasoline (RFG) Supplies May Shrink With Blending & Contribute to Higher Cost RBOB Gasoline 7 RVP RFG Remove 14.% of Volatile C/C6 s Summer VOC Control Period RFG with Can lose 4.% Add Back 1% Addition of Butanes Expands Non-Summer Capability Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 7

8 6 RBOB CBOB Can Be Used to Further Reduce Carbon Intensity (Aromatic Production) in Gasolines Octane Octane Gain From Blending Bio- Options in Gasoline Bio-ETBE Gasoline Octane Increase Utilizing s Octane by Refinery requires distribution of RBOB and CBOB in fungible Pipeline Systems Vol % in Gasoline NGL Addition to Gasoline ( VOL % ) Gasoline NGL Utilization from Blending Bio- Options ( Butane versus Pentane for RVP Control in 7 RVP Gasoline ) Vol % in Gasoline Pentane (C) with Bio-ETBE Butane (C4) with Bio-ETBE Butane (C4) with Blending above % increases NGL utilization in Gasoline Blending Pentane (C) with 8

9 per gallon s Value in E8 Less than Refinery Gasoline Feb Sub Mileage Loss Pump Taxes Dist & Mkt Gasoline New Tanks Gasoline from Refinery 21 /g 27% 27% Mileage Mileage Loss Loss $7 Crude Oil Mkt Value 167 /g Fed Sub + 1 /g Value Value /g /g Value 116 /g 87 Regular Gasoline E8 in E8 value with subsidy in E8 is ~ 43 / gal less that Rack gasoline E8 exposes s lower energy density to Consumer s Fuel Purchase Decision Using in Existing Ether Capacity Increases Summer Gasoline Supplies without Processing More Crude Oil Blending One Gallon of converted into an Ether Potentially Leverages NGL s into.7 gallons of Gasoline Crude Oil Gallons 1. Butane 1.9 Crude Oil Refining Ether Operation Low Octane NGL s 3.3 Existing Ether Capacity 87 Oct / 7 RVP 1 Gal ETBE 2.4 Gal Net NGL 3.3 Gal Refinery Blending Summer Gasoline 87 Oct / 7 RVP 1.7 Gallons Ether s high octane with low RVP upgrades low octane NGL s into gasoline 9

10 Using in Existing Ether Capacity Increases Summer Gasoline Supplies without Processing More Crude Oil Blending One Gallon of converted into an Ether Potentially Leverages NGL s into.7 gallons of Gasoline Crude Oil Gallons 1. Butane 1.9 Crude Oil Refining Ether Operation Low Octane NGL s 3.3 Existing Ether Capacity 87 Oct / 7 RVP 1 Gal ETBE 2.4 Gal Net NGL 3.3 Gal Refinery Blending Summer Gasoline 87 Oct / 7 RVP 1.7 Gallons Combining butane and ethanol as ETBE increases their octane and reduces their RVP Large Octane Gain on Butane ETBE Butane Large RVP Reduction on Butane & ETBE Butane 4 19 RVP -1-1 Netback Value Of in Various Summer Fuel Options Delta over Refinery Gasoline Price / gal E1 E1 E1 E2-1 E8 ETOH ETBE Blending Point Refinery Terminal Terminal Terminal Terminal Value Refinery Blending Method Refinery Splash CBOB CBOB Splash in ETBE Refinery RVP (49) (49) 12 Octane 3 Rail (1) (1) (1) (1) Terminaling () () () () Dealer incentive (1) (1) () Mileage Debit (94) Net Value Delta 1 (2) (24) 4 (114) Subsidy /gal Delta /gal Above Refinery Gasoline (63) 129 High water solubility prevents the refinery from blending E1 for its higher value Blending ethanol above E1 level as E2 achieves higher market value with RBOB and CBOB made for E2 1

11 Non-Petroleum Volume Contributions of "" Fuel Options 6. Potential Net Supply Expansion in 7 RVP Summer Gasoline Gasoline BTU Equiv Volume Per Gallon of. Relative Volume Impact ETOH Equiv. C4 & C & C6's 1 ETOH Equiv. Added Octane and Lower RVP Allows Blending of More NGLs 1 ETOH Equiv. C4 & C & C6's C4 Portion of ETBE Equiv. 1 ETOH Equiv. -1. ETOH Net ETOH Net as E8 as ETBE in E1 Blends with E2 - E1 Blends in ETBE is superior in extending summer gasoline supplies with Non-Petroleum energy Incremental used as E2 can provide much more Non-Petroleum gasoline volume than E1 History of "Net Price" versus Consumption 4 Market Price minus both the Federal Subsidy and GC ULR Gasoline Net Price ( Delta / gal over Gasoline ) 3 96 ( MTBE removal from RFG ) (1) 99 4 (2) 2 3 (3) (4) Estimate 7 () 1, 2, 3, 4,, 6, 7, Source: Demand Study by TEIR Consumption Million Gallons / Year 11

12 Delta from Gasoline Price ( / gallon ) (2) (4) (6) (8) Netback Value vs Demand In E1 Market Relative to Gasoline Price Market Value ( Includes Fed. Subsidy ) Net Value in Gasoline to Blender / Refiner ( Before Adding Federal Tax Credit ) Value + Fed.Sub. Refiner Value (1) U.S. Demand ( Billion Gallons Per Year) Source: Demand Study by TEIR Delta from Gasoline Price ( / gallon ) (2) (4) (6) (8) Netback Value vs Demand In E1 Market Relative to Gasoline Price Market Value ( Includes Fed. Subsidy ) 7 Estimate Net Value in Gasoline to Blender / Refiner ( Before Adding Federal Tax Credit ) Value + Fed.Sub. Refiner Value Market Value in E8 (Includes Feb. Subsidy) (1) U.S. Demand ( Billion Gallons Per Year) Source: Demand Study by TEIR 12

13 Potential Increase in Net Summer Gasoline Supply with Options E» E1 E1» E2 Volume : B G/Yr 1 1 Net Gasoline B G/Yr 36 Potential % Increase 3.3% 24.% Value : Delta over gasoline / Gal (including subsidy) E % (63 ) ETBE * % 129 * to ETBE limited to existing domestic ether capacity - Incremental supply as E2 provides most potential non-petroleum gasoline supply - Upgrading some existing ethanol to ETBE provides potential quick gasoline supply Summary Observations Fuel Options have different impacts on Gasoline Supplies and the value of Options- E1, E1 to E2, E8 & ETBE using existing ether capacity Expanding E1 to E2 blending provides the largest gasoline supply potential, and a higher ethanol value with high octane and low blending RVP - Higher value requires utilization of low octane CBOB for ethanol octane value - Expanding to E2 blending requires EPA Waiver (& liability shield?) Producing domestic ETBE in existing ether capacity can potentially expand gasoline supply by ~ % quickly using existing ethanol supplies - Provides the highest ethanol value - Widely used in Europe and being considered for Japan Biofuel requirement E8 exposes ethanol s lower energy density to consumer s fuel decision, and also loses the high octane benefit when blending ethanol - value in E8 ~ $1. per gallon less than value of ethanol expanded to E2 TEIR Associates, Inc July 2, 27 13

14 TEIR Associates, Inc Transportation Energy Information Resources 32 years of experience with crude refining and transportation fuels production, economics and fuel quality Issues 26 years of market and competitive analysis of transportation fuels and alternative fuels in major world fuel markets 2 years of regulatory and legislation experience for transportation fuels such as environmental, energy supply, and alternative fuels Current studies are focused on competitive analysis of various biofuels and non-biofuel technologies under various approaches or proposals for regulating transportation fuels. Most recent study is on ethanol s incremental market value relative to gasoline and crude oil as a function of demand (supply) for ethanol. i.e. development of ethanol value versus demand curve. William Piel Elastomer Volume Swell Curves are Good Predictors of Fuel Compatibility Maximum Swell for most elastomers occurs with to 1% in Fuel which makes it the worse case fuel for most selecting fuel system elastomers E1 and E2 should be less severe fuels 14