Clearly the unrest in the Middle East and consequent fuel price increases, as well as uncertainty from the earthquake

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1 Guidelines April 2011 NADA Used Car Guide Industry Update IN THIS ISSUE: NADA Official Used Car Guide Update ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Update The Disaster in Japan and the Effect on Used Vehicle Prices Retail Market Indicators Fuel Prices Economic Drivers NADAguides.com Consumer Site Trends AuctionNet Wholesale Market Trends Guidebook Value Trends At NADA Used Car Guide NADA Official Used Car Guide Update New vehicle sales for March continued to post strong increases by topping 13M SAAR for the second month in a row, and by improving 17% year-over-year on a non-annualized basis. The improved sales were accompanied with an increase in transaction prices and although fleet sales comprised a slightly larger percentage of overall sales than in February, fleet penetration was down significantly on a yearover-year basis. March had its share of headwinds with production concerns from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, fuel prices surging 20 cents compared to the last week in February, continued unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and a sharp decline in consumer confidence. The strong auto sales were a surprise as most analysts were predicting March s SAAR to fall short of the 13M mark. The Conference Board s Consumer Confidence Index took a Clearly the unrest in the Middle East big dive month-to-month, declining by 9 points to and consequent fuel price increases, March s level wiped away February s gains, placing the index in line with readings from last December and January. as well as uncertainty from the earthquake in Japan, have given consumers Clearly the unrest in the Middle East and consequent fuel cause for concern and deflated the price increases, as well as uncertainty from the earthquake optimism felt last month. in Japan, have given consumers cause for concern and deflated the optimism felt last month. These issues may also dampen sales in the upcoming months, especially if fuel prices continue to increase. However, the more pronounced effect will be a shift to fuel efficient vehicles. In March, the 32% increase in sales for small cars represented nearly a quarter of total sales according to JD Power, which they note is the highest percentage of small car sales since Cash for Clunkers in This was not only evident on small cars, but all passenger cars as the percentage of car sales reached 52% of total sales compared to 48% for trucks. NADA expects this trend to continue as gas prices push towards the $4.00 mark; according to AAA, prices have reached $3.70 a gallon thus far in April and oil futures suggest that prices will continue to increase. Acquisition data published by the Conference Board for March also supports a slight pull back in demand compared to February as the percentage of individuals planning to buy a new or used vehicle within the next six months fell. As with Consumer Confidence, February s gains were erased and figures for March moved back towards January levels. 1

2 Official Used Car Guide Update (continued ) On a brighter note unemployment showed signs that the economy is starting to show growth as the unemployment rate declined to a two year low of 8.8%. This represents the fourth consecutive month of decline and supports stronger consumer demand once global concerns begin to subside. Moving forward, the big question will be how lost production in Japan will impact new car sales. Per a review of Global Insight sales forecast data, approximately 1.3M Japanese brand sales were expected between the months of May and July (both import and transplant). Obviously all of these sales will not be lost over the next few months, but a consequential number are at risk. More details on NADA s assessment of this crisis can be found on page 5. AuctionNet wholesale prices for the month posted some of the largest month-to-month gains in recent memory, with compact car segments improving by 5 15% (see page 17). Mid-size and large cars also performed well with increases ranging between 3.5 7% depending on the model year. From a seasonal perspective, the overall market outperformed normal seasonal appreciation by about 2 points with a 5% increase in overall prices. Once again SUV and truck prices underperformed the market, but we have not witnessed a dramatic price decline on these vehicles even as fuel prices near levels last seen in mid Used supply is clearly a price-preserving factor, with auction volume on SUVs and pickups down by 31% and 38% respectively on a year-over-year basis. Consumer behavior is also a factor and we are not seeing droves of consumers leaving these segments en masse like we did nearly three years ago. Luxury models continue to perform well, with the high volume mid-luxury (i.e. BMW 5 Series, Mercedes-Benz E Class) and nearluxury segments improving by 2-to-3% month-over-month. Mid-size luxury CUV s (i.e. BMW X5, Lexus RX) also posted solid gains with prices up around 2%. AuctionNet data through March did not reflect any unusual behavior for Acura, Infiniti and Lexus, all brands experiencing prolonged plant closures following the Japanese earthquake. This may change quickly since demand for these brands has kept inventory levels near or below an optimal level of 60 days. The dramatic increase in wholesale vehicle prices reported through AuctionNet indicates that buyers are expecting the supply of small, fuel-efficient vehicles to dwindle even more due to the crisis in Japan and continued increases in gas prices. In response to this trend, NADA values in the Official Used Car Guide for April 2011 reflect large increases in most car segments compared to March Values for the intermediate compact segment (Honda Civic, Ford Focus, Chevy Cruze, Toyota Corolla, etc.) were increased by about 8% relative to March s edition. Meanwhile subcompact segments were increased by 5-to-15%, depending on model year. As we move into April, we expect auction price increases will subside and present us with a more stable market, albeit at a much higher price level. If gas prices continue on a sharp upward trend and if the impact to new vehicle inventory is longer and deeper than expected, we expect to see an extended increase in used prices for car segments, with truck and SUV prices remaining relatively stable. 2

3 Mileage Mileage Guidelines April 2011 ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Update Used Truck Market Keeps Accelerating The average mileage, age, and selling price of sleeper tractors retailed and wholesaled in February continued to climb upwards in unison. Dealers retailed a slightly higher number of used trucks in this period, with wholesale sales decreasing by a comparable amount. In January, average mileage and age of all sleeper tractors under 1M miles hit their highest levels in at least three years, with mileage at 519K and age at 61 months. February s figures were only slightly lower, with mileage 540, ,000 Average Retail Age and Mileage of All Sleeper Tractors Reported Sold 2-Month Moving Average of Trucks Under 1M Miles 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Age in Months) at 508K and age at 60 months (see Average Age and Mileage graph). These measures should remain at high levels as trucks that were held in extended trade cycles continue to filter in to the secondary market. Despite ever-higher mileage and age, the average selling price of this group hit its highest point since Septem- 500, , , , , Age in Months ber of 2008, at $44,581 (see Average Retail Price and Source: NADA Month Mileage graph). The market is now off its May, 2008 peak by less than 8%. With average mileage approximately 50,000 miles higher now than in that period, 520,000 Average Retail Selling Price and Mileage of All Sleeper Tractors Reported Sold 2-Month Moving Average of Trucks Under 1M Miles $50,000 these market gains are even more dramatic than they appear at first glance. 510, , ,000 $48,000 $46,000 $44, ,000 $42, , , , ,000 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage) 430,000 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price) 420,000 Source: NADA $38,000 $36,000 $34,000 $32,000 $30,000 Month Focusing strictly on the four-year old sleeper market, January s average simply blew away the preceding three years, coming in at $69,519 (see 4 Year Old graph). February was off January by about 10%. Keep in mind that four year old now means the 2008 model year, of which a relatively small volume has filtered through the secondary market. Due to this limited sample size, multiple-unit package deals can skew averages each month. It is therefore advisable to look at this segment in terms of the 2-3 month trend rather than focusing on monthly swings up or down. On the wholesale side (auction plus dealer wholesale sales), average selling price appears at first glance to have increased dramatically from January (see Average Wholesale Price and Mileage graph). However, the sale of a large package of 2009 model year trucks had an outsized impact on this period s data. As such, February s data point is not necessarily representative of the true market trajectory. Nonetheless, even if we remove this package deal from the calculations, there was still an increase from January. Thus, it is still legitimate to say that the wholesale market continued to trend upwards. $40,000 Price 3

4 Mileage Price Guidelines April 2011 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) As of this writing, the Japanese disaster is impacting domestic manufacturing (and presumably freight, although post-disaster figures are not yet available). It is fairly certain that slowdowns will continue through the late second quarter and possibly beyond. While the timing is fairly predictable, the severity is not. What we do know is that factories will have to meet pent-up demand after Japanese production returns to normal. As such, it is probable that used truck buyers will see the disaster as temporary, and the fundamental supply/demand relationship will continue to favor upward movements in price, mileage, and age. $75,000 $70,000 $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 Source: NADA Average Retail Selling Price: 4 Year Old Sleeper Tractors Month Includes sales data from all retail sources, adjusted for mileage. 750, ,000 Average Wholesale Selling Price and Mileage of Sleeper Tractors Reported Sold 2-Month Moving Average of Trucks Under 1M Miles 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price) $35,000 $30, ,000 $25, , ,000 $20,000 Price 500,000 $15, ,000 $10, ,000 $5,000 Source: NADA Month Average Number of Sales Per Reporting Dealership (Trend) Retail Wholesale Source: NADA Month 4

5 The Disaster in Japan and the Effect on Used Vehicle Prices The earthquake and tsunami of March 11 th have substantially disrupted production for every Japanese automotive manufacturer as well as a significant number of suppliers who serve Japanese OEMs. Compounding matters is the global reach of Japanese suppliers; rubbers, semiconductors, plastics, gearing, transmissions, and paints are all supplied in large quantities to various non- Japanese OEMs. With over a month passing since the natural disaster occurred, manufacturers affected by lost production Japanese and otherwise are just now beginning to feel the subsequent pinch. On the Japanese side, domestic vehicle production has either been temporarily halted or is limping along at partial capacity. Here in the U.S., the majority of Japanese transplant factories and some non-japanese manufacturers have curtailed production to preserve parts or no longer have the capacity to fulfill orders for certain paint colors. The subsequent interruption in supply is expected to have significant short-term implications for the industry as a whole, with the largest impacts experienced by Japanese brands and certain segments most notably compact cars and CUVs. This will not only play a role in determining the overall number of new vehicles sold this year in the U.S., but will also be a significant contributor to used vehicle price performance as dealers and consumers will look to the secondary market to meet demand. Prices for compact and mid-size cars, and to a lesser degree CUVs, all segments with considerable Japanese production exposure, are expected to show a considerable lift in the short-term. Information available to-date indicates the supply shock will have its most significant impact in the May-through-July time period, though some portion of the impact has already been observed. The following is an assessment of how we believe events in Japan will impact new and used vehicle pricing during this time period, and how customers can expect to see this reflected in NADA s Official Used Car Guide. NEW MARKET IMPACT While no Japanese OEM has been left untouched by the events of last month, new vehicle sales for certain brands will be hit especially hard, as Japanese production for Infiniti, Lexus, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Scion, Subaru, and Suzuki models ranges from % of the total number of vehicles sold in the U.S. (fig. 1). Acura/Honda, Nissan, and Toyota although less affected at the brand level due to U.S. production will still face parts shortages across their respective line-ups, as well as production shortages on key models produced only in Japan (e.g. Fit, Rogue, Prius). At the segment level, compact cars, compact and mid-size utilities, and luxury vehicles will be disproportionately impacted as Japanese production accounts for a significant portion of overall U.S. sales (fig. 2). Fig. 1 5

6 Japan (continued ) Approximately 14% of all vehicles sold in the U.S. are imported from Japan and another 25% of all vehicles sold are Japanese transplant units (i.e. units produced here in the States). Global Insight s March forecast for the May-through-July time period places Japanese import volume roughly between 140k 155k units a month, or about 442k units overall. Japanese transplant volume adds an additional 892K units, for a total of about 1.3M units (fig. 3). Non-Japanese OEMs are also facing challenges stemming from Japanese supplier issues as parts inventories begin to dry up; this is especially true for manufacturers that rely heavily on Japanese suppliers for electronic and powertrain components. Japanese Import Share of Overall U.S. Sales Intermediate Compact 26% Compact Utility 22% Luxury 22% Mid-Size Utility 15% Source: IHS Global Insight, NADA Fig. 2 At a market level, production losses will most likely bring inventory levels below March s days supply figure of 54 days. However, issues associated with lost supply will be more keenly felt in the compact car and utilities segments, where the overall days supply stood at 39 and 45 days respectively at the end of March, down from 55 and 50 at the end of February. Fig. 3 A reduction in production for popular models such as the Toyota Prius (18), Nissan Rogue (25), and the Subaru Outback (36), as well Make/Model March End Days' Supply Mitsubishi Outlander Sport* 97 Honda CR-Z* 95 Nissan Murano* 73 Toyota Yaris* 67 Mazda Mazda6 67 Mazda Mazda3* 61 Honda Fit* 59 Toyota Camry 54 Infiniti G35* 53 Honda Accord 47 Honda CR-V 46 Mazda Mazda2* 45 Toyota Corolla/Matrix 37 Subaru Forester* 37 Subaru Outback 36 Honda Civic 31 Nissan Altima 31 Nissan Rogue* 25 Toyota Prius* 18 Nissan Sentra 16 Source: Ward's Automotive *Denotes models produced in Japan. Fig. 4 as higher volume models such as the Toyota Camry (54) and Honda Accord (47), will cause significant challenges for OEMs and dealers due to increasing consumer demand and relatively low days' supply levels (fig. 4). Given the significant challenges faced by Japanese industry including energy, supply, and logistic disruptions production is not expected to reach early-march levels until late-may or June. Considering the scale of this supply shock, significant effects are expected for the auto industry along three main themes: 1. New market prices will increase on supply-impacted models by way of MSRP increases and incentive reductions. 2. However, we do not expect price increases sufficient to balance supply and demand in the short-term; days' supply levels will continue to fall and dealers will face significant challenges in meeting consumer timing and configuration demands. 3. Lastly, we expect some demand shift towards non supply-impacted models as a reaction to customer needs and price increases. OEMs and dealers will meet these demand shifts with price increases of their own and/or by enjoying increases in market share. 6

7 Japan (continued ) Toyota has announced base MSRP increases of approximately 1 to 2% on most vehicles in its lineup starting in May and Ford raised prices by approximately 1/2% in April. Other MSRP increases are likely in reaction to the supply shock as OEM's seek a new balance with demand. Overall, an average MSRP increase is expected in the compact car segment, and similar increases are expected in other segment significantly impact by the shock. The discounts provided to consumers through manufacturer incentives and through dealer margin reductions are expected to decline. For the compact car segment, an incentive decline of $750 (down from the February level of ~$2,000 per unit) is expected, with most of the decreases occurring in May (fig. 5). If MSRP and incentives change as expected, prices in the compact car segment will increase 4-5% and we estimate that this will reduce the quantity of units demanded by approximately half of the overall supply reduction. As a result, Fig. 5 we expect further challenges for dealers in maintaining a sufficient quantity and variety of vehicles and reduced days' supply levels. We expect similar price increases and inventory challenges in the luxury and compact and midsize utility segments. Some consumers less focused on a particular model or brand will be pushed to non-japanese brands by inventory challenges. All consumers will be subject to substitution of other models due to the expected price increases. As a result, some capturing of sales-share by non-japanese brands is expected in the short-term. This is most likely on the luxury side, as Lexus' stalled production will make it easier for BMW and Mercedes-Benz to build upon their first quarter lead over 2010 s luxury sales leader. USED MARKET IMPACT New vehicle supply constraints over the next few months will mean that dealers will have to be creative in sourcing stock for their lots, especially for the directly affected brands and segments. We expect that dealers will shift focus towards retailing latemodel used vehicles in an effort to fill holes left by the reduction in new inventory, at least until production returns to normal. Bidding will be especially pronounced on fuel-efficient cars and CUVs as lost inventory and high fuel prices converge against the backdrop of an already supply-constrained market. Wholesale prices for compact and mid-size cars two fuel-efficient segments with significant Japanese exposure have increased by 20% and 15% respectively since the beginning of the year, and are up by 10% and 8% on a month-over-month basis, figures that far outpace normal seasonal increases associated with this time of year. In a reversal from last year, large truck prices have remained flat or have declined slightly and are subsequently underperforming relative to what is expected for this time of year (fig. 6). The impact of supply and fuel is evidenced no better than in recent price activity on the Toyota Prius, with prices on 2-to-5 year old units increasing by almost 30% since the beginning of the year (fig. 7). 7

8 Japan (continued ) Further significant prices gains are expected into July as increasing gas prices (fig. 8), normal seasonal peaks in consumer demand, and the most significant effects of the supply shock coalesce. Increases in new market prices through decreased incentives, and to a lesser extent increases in MSRPs, will pass-through to used market prices at varying rates depending in large part on the age of the vehicle. For example, we expect transaction prices on new compact cars to increase by ~$850. Because the price of a close substitute has increased, this will cause a demand shift to used compact cars. The resulting increase in demand is expected to pressure the typical 3 year old compact car price up by ~$650 (fig. 9). Overall, we expect wholesale prices to increase by approximately 10% into June over March levels, with ~60% of the impact originating from the supply shock. Fig. 6 New vehicle prices for trucks will not show significant price increases because there is less exposure to Japanese production. As a result, used prices will not face the same upward pressure as the segments mentioned above. Prices will also face downward pressure due to rising fuel prices; this will vary however on vehicle size and fuel efficiency, with large SUV prices being most at risk. A continued decline in returning used supply will act as a counterbalance and limit price reductions in the used market. Fig. 7 During the second half of 2011, we expect that much of the production lost will be made up as non-japanese OEMs will be able to step in and fill a portion of the void left by the Japanese over this period of time. Many analysts are predicting that the lion s share of lost volume will be made up in the third and fourth quarter as plants come back online and production is increased via overtime. As this production enters the market, most of the effects of the supply shock are expected to be reversed incentives will return to earlier levels, and used prices will face a downward pressure along with the other pressures in the marketplace. Fig. 8 8

9 Japan (continued ) A significant portion of the adjustments to our guidebook values required to account for the Japan tragedy and resulting supply shock are already in place. NADA released an addendum to the April edition of the Official Used Car Guide in late March with updated values reflecting our initial assumptions regarding the impact of the Japan tragedy. Specifically, values for the intermediate compact and mid-size car segments were increased by about 8% relative to March s edition, while subcompact segment values were increased by 5-to- 15%, depending on model year. SUMMARY Fig. 9 The tragic events faced by Japan on March 11 and in the proceeding weeks are expected to have a significant impact of the U.S. automobile market. Plant closures and other production and supply chain disruptions will produce a supply shock centered on the May-through-July timeframe. This shock will be particularly concentrated on the compact and mid-size car and CUV segments, where we expect to see increases in new market transaction prices by way of MSRP increases and incentive decreases. Increasing prices will shift demand to the used market, and we expect to see measurable price increases as a result. These price increases will add to the current upward pressure on prices due to increasing gas costs. NADA made adjustments for these expectations in a late-march addendum to our standard April edition. 9

10 NADA Returning Used Supply Forecast About NADA s Returning Used Supply Forecast NADA s Returning Used Supply Forecast estimates the time it takes for a new vehicle to enter the used vehicle market, and is derived from actual new vehicle registrations. Return dates and rates are based on the original registration type (i.e. rental fleet, lease, or personal use). NADA Returning Used Supply Forecast: Percent Change From Preceding Period Vehicle Type Registration Type I II III IV I II III Total 0% 18% 6% -19% 2% 12% -1% Car Lease 15% 9% -14% -9% 12% 7% -19% Personal -2% 25% 9% -29% 1% 27% 4% Rental -9% -1% 30% 16% -4% -27% -2% Total -3% 10% 11% -23% 0% 3% 6% Light Truck Lease 10% -1% -12% -10% 7% -7% -21% Personal -5% 13% 15% -29% 1% 7% 13% Rental -20% 15% 43% 8% -14% -4% 9% 10

11 Retail Market Indicators New Vehicle Sales Retail market indicators convey information on the performance of the new and used vehicle markets. Total vehicle sales are core indicators of consumer demand and overall industry health. Supply is a measurement used to gauge the relationship between supply and demand, and provides an indication of pricing strength in general. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (Millions) Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar Source: WardsAuto.com 11

12 Retail Market Indicators Used Vehicle Sales 12

13 Fuel Prices 13

14 Economic Drivers Unemployment and Consumer Confidence are two of the most important economic drivers behind both a consumer s ability and willingness to make a new or used vehicle purchase, and are provided as indicators on the future outlook for both markets. 14

15 NADAguides.com Consumer Site Trends New Activity About NADAguides.com NADAguides.com is the most comprehensive vehicle information website on the internet today, offering a broad range of information and services to help educate consumers in the market to buy, sell, trade, or simply shop for a vehicle. The figures contained below are based on consumer activity at and are calculated by measuring the number of unique lookups for a given period of time. Kia MINI Ford Smart Hyundai Saab Subaru GMC Honda Suzuki Mercedes-Benz Lexus Nissan Toyota Chevrolet Infiniti Mitsubishi Cadillac Scion Volvo Acura Jeep Buick Mazda Chrysler Volkswagen Lincoln BMW Audi Jaguar Dodge Land Rover Porsche YoY Change in Consumer Activity: NEW Make Source: NADAguides.com -56% -62% -54% -43% -44% -44% -21% -24% -25% -11% -12% -12% -14% -15% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% 0% 7% 5% 3% 9% 7% 16% 32% 27% 45% 41% 55% 128% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% Percent Change New: Top 15 Researched Models March 2011 March 2011 Rank MoM Change MY MAKE MODEL Ford Explorer 2 (1) 2011 Ford F Hyundai Sonata Chevrolet Silverado Toyota Camry 6 (1) 2011 Kia Sorento Chevrolet Equinox Honda Accord Sdn Chevrolet Camaro 10 (8) 2011 Ford Mustang Ford Fusion Honda CR-V Nissan Altima Toyota Tacoma Hyundai Elantra New: Top 15 Researched Models March 2010 March 2010 Rank MY MAKE MODEL Lamborghini Gallardo Chevrolet Camaro Ford F Dodge Challenger Chevrolet Equinox Toyota Camry Ford Fusion Chevrolet Silverado Honda CR-V Toyota Tacoma Jeep Wrangler Ford Mustang Dodge Ram Chevrolet Corvette Toyota Corolla 15

16 NADAguides.com Consumer Site Trends Used Activity YoY Change in Consumer Activity: USED Make Subaru MINI Volkswagen Scion Hyundai Audi Acura Kia Saturn Honda Mazda Toyota Mercedes-Benz Buick Nissan Lexus Suzuki Chevrolet Chrysler Jeep Dodge Ford Mitsubishi GMC Cadillac Mercury BMW Lincoln Hummer Pontiac Infiniti Saab Land Rover Volvo Jaguar Porsche -25% -15% -5% -8% -8% -9% -9% 0% -2% -3% 2% 1% 1% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 8% 8% 7% 6% 11% 11% 10% 19% 18% 18% 17% 16% 22% 22% 20% 28% 31% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Source: NADAguides.com Percent Change Used: Top 15 Researched Models March 2011 Used: Top 15 Researched Models March 2010 March 2011 Rank MoM Change MAKE MODEL 1 0 Ford F Chevrolet Silverado Nissan Altima 4 1 Chevrolet Impala 5 1 Honda Accord Sdn 6 1 Toyota CAMRY 7 (3) Dodge Ram Ford Mustang 9 2 Toyota Corolla 10 4 Chevrolet Cobalt 11 4 Ford Focus 12 (2) Ford Super Duty F (4) Chevrolet Tahoe 14 4 Chevrolet Malibu 15 (3) Ford Escape March 2010 Rank MAKE MODEL 1 Ford F Chevrolet Silverado Dodge Ram Honda Accord Sdn 5 Ford Mustang 6 Chevrolet Impala 7 Nissan Altima 8 Toyota Camry 9 Ford Super Duty F Chevrolet Tahoe 11 Chevrolet Silverado 2500HD 12 BMW 3 Series 13 Chevrolet TrailBlazer 14 Toyota Corolla 15 Jeep Grand Cherokee 16

17 AuctionNet Wholesale Market Trends Monthly Change in Average AuctionNet Price: NADA Segment February 2011 v. March 2011 NADA Segment 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY Compact CUV 3.1% 3.1% 3.8% 4.2% 4.1% Compact Pickup 1.3% 4.4% 3.0% 2.2% -0.8% Compact SUV 0.9% 1.2% 1.6% 5.8% 3.3% Entry Compact 14.3% 12.0% 7.7% 11.1% 9.8% Entry Subcompact 9.1% 8.5% 10.4% 15.2% 11.8% Intermediate Compact 4.9% 6.7% 8.2% 8.7% 8.8% Intermediate Large 0.6% 3.8% 5.2% 5.0% 7.0% Intermediate Mid-Size 4.4% 5.4% 6.9% 5.6% 6.9% Intermediate Subcompact 7.4% 3.4% 11.0% 7.8% 9.2% Large Pickup -1.5% -2.0% -1.2% -1.1% 0.1% Large SUV -1.6% -1.5% -2.8% -0.4% -0.6% Large Van 3.5% 2.1% 0.6% 0.5% 1.2% Luxury Large 7.3% 2.9% -1.3% 7.6% 2.7% Luxury Large Pickup 0.3% -0.5% -3.1% -1.4% 2.5% Luxury Large SUV -1.6% -0.3% -2.9% 2.7% -1.3% Luxury Mid-Size 3.2% 2.8% 3.1% 2.0% 1.2% Luxury Mid-Size CUV 1.2% 1.4% -0.2% 1.3% 1.0% Luxury Mid-Size SUV 4.3% -2.8% -0.1% -1.8% 2.1% Mid-Size CUV 2.2% 2.3% 1.6% 1.9% 1.1% Mid-Size SUV 0.7% 0.4% -0.1% 1.9% -0.4% Mid-Size Van 3.4% 4.6% 3.4% 4.3% 6.6% Near Luxury Compact 2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 0.6% 1.2% Near Luxury Mid-Size 8.5% 3.0% 2.4% 1.9% 1.5% Premium Luxury Large -1.8% 2.6% 0.5% -0.8% 2.5% Premium Luxury Large SUV -2.0% 1.7% -1.3% 1.2% -1.5% Premium Luxury Mid-Size CUV 1.9% 4.9% 1.1% 2.1% -0.4% Upper Compact 2.3% 4.7% 4.4% 2.0% 3.1% Upper Large 2.1% 4.6% 3.9% 1.2% 4.2% Upper Mid-Size 3.3% 2.0% 2.5% 2.3% 0.3% *Underlying data has been adjusted for Mileage & Mix. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. 7.0% Monthly AuctionNet Price Change: 1 to 5 yr. Old Vehicles* Feb-11 vs Mar % YoY AuctionNet Price Change: 1 to 5 yr. Old Vehicles* Mar-10 vs Mar % 12.0% 5.0% 10.0% 4.0% 8.0% 3.0% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% Car CUV Pickup SUV Van 0.0% Car CUV Pickup SUV Van *Figures have been adjusted for both Mileage & Mix *Figures have been adjusted for both Mileage & Mix 17

18 Guidebook Value Trends Month-Over-Month Monthly Change in Average Official Used Car Guide Value: NADA Segment March 2011 v. April 2011 NADA Segment 2005MY 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY Compact CUV -0.4% -0.3% 0.2% 0.2% -0.3% Compact Pickup 0.3% -0.1% -0.1% -0.5% 0.0% Compact SUV -0.4% -0.6% -0.7% -0.4% 0.0% Entry Compact 14.4% 15.9% 8.9% 14.8% 13.5% Entry Subcompact 11.7% 15.0% 15.5% 14.0% 14.0% Intermediate Compact 7.2% 6.6% 8.1% 7.5% 7.7% Intermediate Large 1.6% 3.3% 4.3% 4.5% 2.6% Intermediate Mid-Size 9.4% 8.6% 8.9% 7.7% 6.6% Intermediate Subcompact 5.5% 8.1% 10.2% 10.3% 7.3% Large Pickup -2.4% -2.4% -2.4% -2.1% -1.5% Large SUV -2.6% -3.3% -3.5% -2.4% -2.3% Large Van 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% -0.3% -0.7% Luxury Compact 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 0.8% -0.3% Luxury Large -1.4% -1.3% -2.3% -0.7% -1.8% Luxury Large Pickup -3.3% -2.3% -1.4% -1.0% -1.0% Luxury Large SUV -2.8% -2.7% -2.6% -2.5% -1.3% Luxury Mid-Size -0.3% -0.4% -0.6% -0.5% -0.6% Luxury Mid-Size CUV -1.0% -1.6% -0.7% -1.2% -1.0% Luxury Mid-Size SUV -1.8% -1.2% -1.1% -0.7% -0.8% Mid-Size CUV 0.0% -0.7% -0.7% -0.8% -1.0% Mid-Size SUV -1.9% -2.7% -2.1% -1.7% -1.0% Mid-Size Van -0.3% -0.4% -0.1% -0.2% -0.3% Near Luxury Compact 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% -0.5% -1.0% Near Luxury Mid-Size -0.5% -1.1% -0.6% -0.4% -0.3% Premium Luxury Compact 0.0% -0.3% -0.2% -0.8% -0.2% Premium Luxury Large -1.8% -1.7% -1.1% -1.4% -1.2% Premium Luxury Large SUV -0.9% -0.9% 0.1% 0.1% -1.3% Premium Luxury Mid-Size -0.7% -0.2% 0.0% -0.5% -0.6% Premium Luxury Mid-Size CUV -1.0% -0.3% -0.8% -0.5% -0.6% Upper Compact 0.7% 0.8% 0.3% 1.1% 0.9% Upper Large -0.7% 0.0% 0.2% -0.3% -0.1% Upper Mid-Size -0.1% -1.5% -1.1% 1.0% 0.2% Upper Subcompact 0.4% 0.0% 1.1% -0.4% -0.1% See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. Monthly Change in Average CTG Value: NADA Segment March 2011 v. April 2011 NADA Segment 2005MY 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY* Commercial Van 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Extended Hood 0.2% -2.8% -3.8% 0.1% -3.4% Highway Aerodynamic -0.6% -3.3% -4.4% -1.9% -3.9% Highway Traditional 0.0% -4.2% -4.6% -0.3% -3.8% Local/Delivery Daycab -0.1% -1.7% -3.9% -0.7% -3.4% Medium Duty Cabover 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A Medium Duty Conventional 0.0% 0.0% -1.3% -0.7% 5.2% Vocational/Construction 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% 1.5% 0.0% *Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. 18

19 Guidebook Value Trends Year-Over-Year NADA Used Car Guide Value Change: April, 2010 v NADA Segment 5YR 4YR 3YR 2YR 1YR YoY Segment Change (All Ages) Compact CUV 4.9% 18.3% 8.8% 9.0% 10.0% 9.0% Compact Pickup 15.0% 15.1% 10.1% 11.3% 17.6% 11.0% Compact SUV 27.4% 6.5% 16.5% 8.0% 1.1% 16.6% Entry Compact 75.7% 33.7% 40.2% 39.0% 25.4% 36.4% Entry Subcompact 33.6% 33.8% 39.4% 39.4% 27.9% 36.7% Intermediate Compact 21.4% 24.9% 18.5% 24.6% 18.8% 20.4% Intermediate Large 36.1% 20.5% 15.8% 20.0% 9.7% 13.1% Intermediate Mid-Size 31.5% 27.7% 29.9% 21.0% 11.2% 20.1% Intermediate Subcompact 20.0% 10.0% -6.0% 21.4% 19.2% 13.9% Large Pickup 9.8% 6.2% 11.0% 8.1% 5.4% 7.0% Large SUV 15.3% 2.3% 20.0% 10.0% 6.3% 12.2% Large Van 10.8% 21.1% 17.3% 19.5% 10.4% 18.8% Luxury Compact 16.5% 10.4% 23.4% 8.9% 2.5% 13.4% Luxury Large 15.3% 13.7% 17.7% 17.9% 8.0% 14.3% Luxury Large Pickup 29.9% 4.1% 11.9% 15.1% 31.1% 10.3% Luxury Large SUV 9.0% 9.1% 20.3% 18.5% 9.1% 15.9% Luxury Mid-Size 14.4% 18.6% 12.1% 5.9% 3.0% 10.1% Luxury Mid-Size CUV 4.0% 11.3% 11.0% 2.3% 7.2% 4.3% Luxury Mid-Size SUV 19.3% 22.3% 25.0% -2.4% 11.6% 17.0% Mid-Size CUV 6.4% 23.5% 15.8% 10.1% 8.4% 8.5% Mid-Size SUV 14.5% 16.1% 14.6% 13.1% 13.4% 12.9% Mid-Size Van 16.9% 21.9% 8.5% 27.4% 14.3% 15.8% Near Luxury Compact 10.9% 18.0% 10.1% 15.3% 8.9% 9.2% Near Luxury Mid-Size 5.9% 8.0% 11.2% 15.7% 5.5% 24.2% Premium Luxury Compact 16.1% -5.9% 7.9% 9.0% 7.8% 7.4% Premium Luxury Large 7.2% 9.2% 23.9% 8.7% 6.2% 8.5% Premium Luxury Large SUV 9.9% 17.6% 12.4% 15.9% 7.7% 8.1% Premium Luxury Mid-Size 8.3% 16.4% 14.9% 7.1% 7.3% 5.9% Premium Luxury Mid-Size CUV 1.7% 19.1% -12.3% 27.9% 18.2% 13.0% Upper Compact 8.2% 10.5% 12.7% 7.5% 11.2% 4.0% Upper Large 31.8% 17.3% 11.5% 15.2% 10.3% 7.8% Upper Mid-Size 15.1% 10.1% 11.8% 7.7% 27.3% 10.8% Upper Subcompact 5.9% 1.6% 16.6% 12.1% 13.6% 13.7% *Calculations are based on vehicle age. I.e. Values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2010 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2009. ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value Change: April, 2010 v YoY Segment NADA Segment 5YR 4YR 3YR 2YR Change (All Ages) Commercial Van 31.7% 20.8% 31.1% 49.5% 35.8% Extended Hood 112.5% 102.4% 66.3% 77.6% 87.5% Highway Aerodynamic 115.5% 107.0% 81.8% 95.9% 100.0% Highway Traditional 119.7% 99.8% 77.1% 80.7% 86.4% Local/Delivery Daycab 77.1% 67.0% 66.3% 75.5% 75.5% Medium Duty Cabover 10.8% 27.3% 37.8% 29.3% 30.2% Medium Duty Conventional 22.9% 27.2% 34.4% 32.5% 29.8% Vocational/Construction 17.7% 24.8% 31.4% 63.2% 23.5% *Calculations are based on vehicle age. I.e. Values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2010 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicle 19

20 Guidebook Value Trends Year-To-Date NADA Used Car Guide Value Change: January April 2011 NADA Segment 2005MY 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY YTD Segment Change (All MYs) Compact CUV -1.7% -1.7% -1.0% -1.2% -1.6% -1.4% Compact Pickup -1.2% -1.5% -1.0% -2.0% -0.8% -1.2% Compact SUV -1.4% -1.6% -3.0% -1.5% -1.4% -1.8% Entry Compact 18.5% 21.5% 16.1% 17.4% 14.6% 17.1% Entry Subcompact 16.9% 21.7% 20.0% 13.2% 14.9% 16.0% Intermediate Compact 8.8% 6.8% 9.5% 9.6% 9.6% 9.0% Intermediate Large -1.6% 2.3% 2.6% 4.0% 1.2% 2.0% Intermediate Mid-Size 9.9% 9.0% 10.1% 8.3% 6.1% 8.7% Intermediate Subcompact 5.5% 7.8% 11.9% 11.4% 9.4% 10.0% Large Pickup -5.2% -5.4% -5.4% -4.6% -3.8% -4.8% Large SUV -4.2% -6.2% -6.2% -4.0% -3.3% -4.5% Large Van -0.9% 0.0% -1.2% 0.8% -2.2% -0.8% Luxury Compact 0.8% 1.0% 2.3% 1.0% -0.4% 0.6% Luxury Large -4.4% -2.9% -2.9% -3.0% -5.7% -4.1% Luxury Large Pickup -3.9% -3.3% -2.9% -2.1% -2.0% -2.6% Luxury Large SUV -5.5% -6.0% -3.4% -3.4% -2.9% -4.0% Luxury Mid-Size -1.9% -2.2% -1.8% -1.6% -2.9% -2.1% Luxury Mid-Size CUV -2.6% -2.2% -0.9% -1.7% -1.8% -1.7% Luxury Mid-Size SUV -3.2% -2.0% 0.1% -0.4% -1.7% -1.2% Mid-Size CUV -1.8% -2.0% -2.2% -2.6% -2.2% -2.3% Mid-Size SUV -4.0% -5.0% -3.8% -2.2% -1.4% -3.0% Mid-Size Van -1.1% -2.5% -2.3% -1.3% -1.3% -1.8% Near Luxury Compact -0.9% -0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -1.4% -0.4% Near Luxury Mid-Size -1.3% -1.6% -1.2% -1.6% -2.1% -1.8% Premium Luxury Compact -0.4% -0.7% -1.5% -2.3% -0.9% -1.3% Premium Luxury Large -3.0% -4.3% -3.6% -4.0% -3.6% -3.7% Premium Luxury Large SUV -0.8% -1.3% 1.1% 0.1% -2.1% -0.7% Premium Luxury Mid-Size -1.1% -0.1% -0.8% -1.9% -2.9% -1.7% Premium Luxury Mid-Size CUV -2.3% -2.0% 1.8% -0.7% -0.6% -0.5% Upper Compact 1.4% 1.6% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.9% Upper Large -2.2% -0.7% -0.4% -0.6% 0.0% -0.6% Upper Mid-Size 0.4% -0.1% -1.0% 2.5% 0.9% 0.5% Upper Subcompact 0.6% -1.2% 4.0% 0.8% 1.5% 1.3% *May 2010 through current period. ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value Change: January April 2011 YTD Segment NADA Segment 2005MY 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY Change (All MYs) Commercial Van 1.9% 2.6% -1.7% 1.1% 0.8% Extended Hood -1.6% -4.5% -3.5% 0.3% 2.0% Highway Aerodynamic -0.1% -6.4% -7.2% -0.6% -5.0% Highway Traditional 0.0% -5.6% -4.6% -1.7% -4.6% Local/Delivery Daycab 1.1% -2.1% -4.1% -0.3% -0.8% Medium Duty Cabover 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Medium Duty Conventional -1.1% -1.2% -1.8% -1.0% -1.9% Vocational/Construction -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 5.0% 20

21 At NADA Used Car Guide NADA is pleased to announce an expansion to our mileage tables. Beginning with the May 2011 NADA Used Car Guide books and electronic products, the vehicle mileage table will expand from 30 mileage bands with a maximum of 150,000 miles to 50 mileage bands with the maximum of 250,000 miles. In an effort to have continuous improvement with our vehicle valuation process, the mileage expansion enhancement is being made to mirror current market conditions and to provide our customers with the information necessary to make market reflective value adjustments. It is driven in large part by substantial improvements in vehicle quality. In your upcoming routine used vehicle analysis, please take note of this product enhancement. On the Road Our NADA Representatives will be attending the ATD and Digital Dealer conferences this month. First, NADA Commercial Truck Editor Chris Visser will be at Booth #527 at the ATD conference in Phoenix, AZ from April at the Phoenix Convention Center. Stop by to see how NADA Commercial Truck values are optimized through our mobile web application for smartphones and digital tablets. This feature is available at no additional cost to subscribers. Next, if you will be attending the Digital Dealer Conference in Orlando, FL, April 19-21, consider participating in NADA Director of Dealer Services Stu Zalud's workshop on Appraising Vehicles for Today's Customers. The workshop will be held Tuesday, April 19 at 2 pm. Stu Zalud and Account Executive Jim Dodd will be on hand to answer any of your questions about NADA products at Booth #101, so be sure to stop by! About AuctionNet AuctionNet is an industry-unique wholesale transaction database, available exclusively from NADA Used Car Guide, in joint partnership with the National Auto Auction Association (NAAA). Over 90 million records strong and updated weekly, it captures sales from all Manheim and ADESA, as well as participating ABC, ServNet and large independent auctions, representing over 80% of nationwide auction activity. About NADA Used Car Guide Over a 78-year history, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of market-reflective vehicle valuation products, services and information to businesses throughout the U.S. and worldwide. NADA s editorial team collects and analyzes over one million combined wholesale and retail automotive-related transaction prices per month. Its guidebooks, auction data, analysis, and data solutions offer automotive, financial, insurance, and government professionals the timely information and reliable solutions they need to make better business decisions. Visit CONTACTS: Financial Industry/ Accounting/ Legal/OEM Captive Steve Stafford x7275 sstafford@nada.org Credit Unions, Fleet/Lease/ Rental Industry, Government Doug Ott x4710 dott@nada.org Automotive Dealers/Auctions, Insurance Jim Dodd x7115 jdodd@nada.org Automotive OEMs Stu Zalad x4636 szalad@nada.org Business Development Manager Jim Gibson x7136 jgibson@nada.org Director Sales and Customer Service Dan Ruddy x4707 druddy@nada.org Director Public Relations Charles Cyrill (mobile) ccyrill@nada.org Disclaimer: NADA Used Car Guide makes no representations about future performance or results based on the data and the contents available in this report ("Guidelines"). Guidelines is provided for informational purposes only and is provided AS IS without warranty or guarantee of any kind. By accessing Guidelines via or the NADA website, you agree not to reprint, reproduce, or distribute Guidelines without the express written permission of NADA Used Car Guide. 21