Guidelines. NADA Used Car Guide Industry Update. NADA Official Used Car Guide Update. October 2010 IN THIS ISSUE:

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1 Guidelines October 2010 NADA Used Car Guide Industry Update IN THIS ISSUE: NADA Official Used Car Guide Update ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Update Electric Vehicles: Used Market Outlook NADA Returning Supply Forecast: Expectations Through Q NADA Fuel Forecasts Retail Market Indicators Economic Drivers NADAguides.com Consumer Site Trends Guidebook Value Trends: YoY & YTD At NADA Used Car Guide NADA Official Used Car Guide Update As we move into October, NADA expects used prices to continue to follow September trends with major segments averaging 1-to-1.5% declines. Overall the used market continues to be strong. The uncertainty in the economy continues to support value-based purchases and realistic production levels have kept new vehicle inventory and incentives in check. Prices on luxury models are anticipated to decline at a faster clip, averaging closer to 2%; September auction prices have validated this and we do not expect immediate recovery for many luxury marquees until economic conditions improve. In addition, the dramatic used supply declines witnessed across the majority of truck segments will not come to pass for many luxury brands until AuctionNet prices for September continued to show strength and stability across many truck segments. Declines for key segments such as large pickups and mid-size CUVs averaged about 1.5% on 2-to-5 year old models, which is very strong for this time of year. Meanwhile, prices on cars and luxury models declined at a slightly faster rate, with prices dropping between 2- to-4%. The relatively steep declines on MY passenger car prices recorded by AuctionNet during September followed the expected depreciation for the period. However some manufacturers fared below others during the month. Chevrolet passenger cars, including the recently redesigned Malibu, underperformed cars as a whole, with models posting fairly sharp declines. ly Change in Average Official Used Car Guide Value: NADA Segment September 2010 v. October 2010 NADA Segment 2005MY 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY* Compact CUV -1.6% -0.6% -0.4% -0.7% -0.3% Compact Pickup -0.3% -0.2% 0.1% 0.1% -0.7% Compact SUV -0.3% -0.3% -0.4% -0.2% -0.3% Entry Compact % -1.3% -1.4% -1.5% Entry Subcompact % -2.1% -1.7% Intermediate Compact -1.7% -1.7% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% Intermediate Large % % Intermediate Mid-Size -1.3% -1.4% -1.2% -1.1% -1.5% Intermediate Subcompact % -1.5% -1.2% -1.3% Large Pickup 0.3% -0.6% 0.9% -0.1% -0.3% Large SUV -0.7% -1.7% -0.3% -0.2% -0.1% Large Van -0.8% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.4% Luxury Compact -1.2% -1.1% -1.8% -1.6% -0.6% Luxury Large % -1.5% -1.8% -1.5% Luxury Large Pickup 0.3% -0.3% 0.3% % Luxury Large SUV -0.8% -0.4% -0.4% -1.1% -0.7% Luxury Mid-Size % -1.6% -1.5% -1.2% Luxury Mid-Size CUV -0.8% -2.3% -1.4% % Luxury Mid-Size SUV -1.7% -2.5% -2.7% -2.2% -1.1% Mid-Size CUV -1.1% -1.1% -0.7% -0.7% -0.2% Mid-Size SUV -0.7% -0.8% -0.1% -0.4% -0.6% Mid-Size Van -1.4% -0.8% -0.8% -1.2% -0.7% Near Luxury Compact -1.5% -1.7% -1.2% -1.2% -1.2% Near Luxury Mid-Size -1.7% -1.4% -1.4% -1.6% -1. Premium Luxury Compact -1.7% % -1.9% -1.7% Premium Luxury Large -1.4% -1.2% % -1.3% Premium Luxury Large SUV -0.3% -2.3% -2.9% -2.5% -2.9% Premium Luxury Mid-Size -1.2% -1.9% -1.8% -1.5% -2. Premium Luxury Mid-Size CUV -0.3% -1.5% -0.9% -2.1% -2.4% Upper Compact -1.3% -1.1% % Upper Large -1.3% -1.5% -0.5% -0.5% -1.3% Upper Mid-Size -1.3% -1.6% % -0.8% Upper Subcompact % % -1.4% *Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. 1

2 Used Car Guide Update (continued ) 08MY Malibu and Impala price drops were particularly steep at ~4%. Two and three year old Ford passenger cars also posted declines after showing strong positive growth in the two months prior to September. Meanwhile, auction prices on Hyundai, Honda, and Toyota cars outperformed the passenger car segment as a whole, especially on 2008MY vehicles and 2010MY vehicles with high fleet penetration contributed to the downward movement in the Intermediate Compact, Mid -Size, and Large car segments, as high off-rental volume placed downward pressure on auction price performance (see table at right). On the truck side, prices on 2008 and 2009MY mid-size vans were also dragged down by large numbers of off-rental vehicles returning to the secondary market. New vehicle sales for the month exceeded initial forecasts, with September s ~12M SAAR representing the second highest sales figure since the Cash-for-Clunkers stimulus of last August. This was achieved with nominal changes in incentive spending, which according to Autodata are down slightly on a YoY basis. Trucks continue to outpace cars in both incentive performance and new sales, with truck sales posting a 16% YoY increase for the month compared to a 6% increase for cars. Meanwhile, incentive spending on trucks is down by 9% compared to a 6% increase for cars. Fleet sales have been a major contributor to the growth of new vehicle sales, but as we explain later in Guidelines, these sales may have a deleterious effect on resale performance for vehicles with high fleet penetration. This aside, most analysts believe that ly Change in Average AuctionNet Price: NADA Segment August 2010 v. September 2010 NADA Segment 2005MY 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY Compact CUV 0.5% -1.4% % -0.9% Compact Pickup 0.4% -3.1% -2.3% 2.5% -1.7% Compact SUV -1.9% -2.7% -1.2% -0.3% -2.5% Entry Compact -0.7% -2.6% -0.2% -6.1% -4.5% Entry Subcompact -1.9% -0.2% -2.2% -4.3% -4.5% Intermediate Compact -3.3% -2.5% -3.8% -3.2% -4.7% Intermediate Large % -3.1% -4.5% -7.4% Intermediate Mid-Size -2.5% -2.7% -2.4% -3.3% -3.6% Intermediate Subcompact -4.6% -3.6% % Large Pickup % -2.6% -1.7% -3.4% Large SUV % -2.8% -2.9% -4.7% Large Van -4.1% % Luxury Large 0.9% -3.7% 2.5% 2.9% -3.6% Luxury Large Pickup % -2.1% -1.7% 3.9% Luxury Large SUV -3.3% 0.5% -2.2% -0.9% 1.5% Luxury Mid-Size -1.7% -0.5% -3.4% -3.3% -1.7% Luxury Mid-Size CUV 2.4% -5.7% -0.2% -1.1% -3. Luxury Mid-Size SUV 0.9% -2.4% -3.1% -0.5% -4.2% Mid-Size CUV -2.9% -1.5% -2.6% -1.6% -0.9% Mid-Size SUV -2.8% -2.4% -1.8% -0.6% -3. Mid-Size Van -2.5% % -3.2% -2.2% Near Luxury Compact -1.7% 3.2% -1.6% -2.2% -3. Near Luxury Mid-Size -1.2% -3.1% -2.6% -3.1% -4.2% Premium Luxury Large -8.8% 1.1% 0.4% -0.7% -4. Premium Luxury Large SUV 4.8% 3.4% -0.5% -1.9% 6.2% Premium Luxury Mid-Size CUV 7.2% -3.6% -1.8% -3.5% 1.9% Upper Compact 0.2% 0.4% % -2.1% Upper Large -2.8% -1.7% -2.8% -3.7% -3.8% Upper Mid-Size -2.8% -1.5% % -2. *Underlying data has been adjusted for Mileage & Mix. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. the new vehicle sales will follow a path of slow growth, with estimates for CY 10 coming in slightly below 11.4M units and forecasts for 2011 hovering around 13M. 0. ly AuctionNet Price Change: 1 to 5 yr. Old Vehicles* Aug-10 vs Sep YoY AuctionNet Price Change: 1 to 5 yr. Old Vehicles* Sept-09 vs Sep % % % Car CUV Pickup SUV Van -1. Car CUV Pickup SUV Van *Figures have been adjusted for both Mileage & Mix *Figures have been adjusted for both Mileage & Mix 2

3 Price Average Price ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Update This month, in addition to our normal monthly review, we re going to take a look at how the used truck market has performed so far in If there was any doubt that the market came back to life in 2010, take a look at the Year-To-Date (YTD) Segment table on pg. 19. Almost all segments are up YTD, but the real story lies in the YTD increases within certain model years. Trucks new to the secondary market (4-5 model years old) saw the biggest increases, with traditional and extended hood trucks the segment previously assumed to be dead seeing the biggest bump. The highway aerodynamic segment the meat and potatoes of the market is up as much as 15% since January, depending on model year. One major reason for this shift in market dynamics is demand for low-mileage equipment. As the Effect of Mileage on Retail Price chart illustrates, selling price is closely correlated to mileage. Even before the Great Recession, mileage was becoming the primary factor in the value of a used truck. This trend is even more evident now that fewer low-mileage trucks are available in the marketplace thanks to the low production rates of the past three years. To round out the YTD picture, it is also useful to $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Effect of Mileage on Retail Price Class 8 Trucks look at sales volume. On the retail side, the total Source: NADA Mileage number of sales reported to us increased 22% from January to August. On the wholesale side, August sales were only about 5% higher than January s, but sales volume has fluctuated quite a bit each month. Our data indicates that April saw the highest wholesale sales volume of the year, with sales 27% higher than January. Looking at month-over-month data, the average selling price for four-year-old sleeper tractors increased slightly from July to August (reference the Average Retail Selling Price: 4 Year Old Sleeper Tractors graph). The sleeper market overall (all model years) was essentially unchanged from July (reference the Average Retail Selling Price: All Model Years graph). The positive takeaway here is the performance of the market relative to the past two years. Selling prices continue to widen the gap from 2009 and edge closer to where they were in $70,000 $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 Source: NADA Average Retail Selling Price: 4 Year Old Sleeper Tractors Includes sales data from all retail sources, adjusted for mileage. 3

4 Percentage Sold Per Dealership Price Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) $50,000 $48,000 $46,000 $44,000 $42,000 $40,000 $38,000 Average Retail Selling Price: Sleeper Tractors All Model Years Includes all data from all retail sources for trucks under 1,000,000 miles. Average number of sales per dealership dipped negligibly from July to August (reference the Over Change graph). Sales per dealership remain substantially higher than any month in These positive trends should not come as any surprise to anyone who has observed the market since January. The increased demand in the first and second quarters due to the reawakening of the industrial sector has been supplanted by more mature growth based on long-term outlooks. Buyers will continue to need replacement equipment, and will continue to demand low-mileage used trucks as a substitute for new. Thanks to the low production of , market dynamics will support elevated used truck selling prices going forward. $36,000 $34,000 $32,000 $30,000 Source: NADA 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% over Change in Number of Used Trucks Sold Per Dealership (Retail) Calculated by dividing the total number of used trucks reported sold by the number of reporting dealerships. 1 5% -5% -1-15% Source: NADA ly Change in Average CTG Value: NADA Segment September 2010 v. October 2010 NADA Segment 2005MY 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY* Commercial Van Extended Hood % Highway Aerodynamic -0.7% -0.5% 2.6% 2.6% Highway Traditional % Local/Delivery Daycab % 1.3% 2.9% Medium Duty Cabover % Medium Duty Conventional 0.7% -0.5% -0.2% -0.2% Vocational/Construction 2.5% 4.8% % *Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. 4

5 Retention Electric Vehicles: Used Market Outlook Background The first mass-produced electric vehicle ( EV ) the 2011 Chevrolet Volt is scheduled to arrive in dealer showrooms some time before the end of the year, with the 2011 Nissan Leaf following shortly thereafter. As with other forms of alternative fuel technology, the drivers behind the introduction of EVs are numerous and oft-cited environmental concerns, geo-political volatility, and impending regulatory compliance to name a few. In addition, advances in battery technology, specifically lithium-ion technology, have made it possible to turn the concept of electric vehicles into reality. Although we have a few months before EVs begin hitting the secondary market, we felt it would be a good time to provide our thoughts on future retention performance. Outlook Long-term, used EV retention will be dictated by three primary factors: supply, fuel prices, and real-world driving performance. We can approximate the impact of supply and fuel prices using hybrid data as a proxy. Regarding real-world driving performance, we can identify threats that may alter used retention after the initial round of demand has been satisfied. Consumer demand for hybrid vehicles through the middle part of the last decade had been relegated to a small group of early adopters who were unafraid of the new technology, and who found the quirky designs of models like the first generation Honda Insight and the second generation Toyota Prius appealing. Hybrid interest grew in the second half of the decade as increasingly volatile fuel prices elevated consumer demand for fuel efficient vehicles. This coincided with the launch of entirely new or extensively redesigned hybrid models from various manufacturers, including the third generation Toyota Prius ( 04MY). By 2008, the Prius was ensconced as the must-have hybrid vehicle, with annual sales three times greater than those of Figure 1 is a five year trend of used value retention for the Prius at 36 months of age (keep in mind that new model year sales typically begin in the fall of the previous calendar year). The chart also includes the rate in which new sales volume for the Prius changed for each model year relative to As can be seen, used retention for the Prius re NADA Official Used Car Guide Retention: Toyota Prius 36-mo. Retention New Sales Growth New Sales Growth (2004 = 0) flected the aforementioned strong con- 2 5 sumer demand, with 36-month retention 1 averaging ~82% through the 2006MY. Prius retention took a turn downward in 2009 however, as increases in production 2004MY (CY06) 2005MY (CY07) 2006MY (CY08) 2007MY (CY09) 2008MY (CY10) Model Year Source: NADA Used Car Guide led to increases in overall supply, and as fuel prices diminished and stabilized. Figure 1 5

6 Percent Change (1/2007 = 0) Electric Vehicles (continued ) The impact of fuel on used hybrid prices is especially apparent when compared against fuel efficient, gas-only substitutes. Figure 2 illustrates the change in average monthly price at auction for a given model and age cohort relative to its average price in January Although all models reached a high point between June and July 2008 when fuel prices peaked at over $4 p/gal., hybrid increases were points greater than their gas counterparts. Since that time however, fuel prices have dropped dramatically, reducing demand for hybrid vehicles. Used hybrid vehicle prices are now trending approximately 15% below January 07 s prices, which is ~10 points back of comparable gas-only models (it should be noted that the direction, if not the degree, is the same for most hybrid models, not just the Civic and Prius). Real-world driving performance and the adaptability of EVs to everyday use will also influence demand growth and used value retention over the long haul. Both the Volt and Leaf have a limited single-charge range of 40 and 100 miles respectively (although the Volt has a gasoline generator that will extend range by an additional 300 miles; as such, GM calls the Volt an EV with Range Extender ). Range can be reduced by factors such as speed, outside temperature, terrain, and the use of charge-draining equipment (e.g. AC). Vehicle charging presents another challenge. Although dedicated charging stations will be available for home installation, the initial cost is high and professional installation is required. If a dedicated 220V/240V charging station is used, it will take about four hours to fully charge a Volt, and eight to fully charge a Leaf. Without a dedicated charging station, charging times can more than double. In addition, at-home charging will be a challenge for consumers living in condominiums or high-rise buildings, an issue that will be especially pronounced in urban areas (this seems somewhat paradoxical as urban professionals are a key target demographic for EVs). Outside of the home, charging station availability will also be limited, even in urban areas. Initial pricing and lease programs announced by GM and Nissan give us some insight into what each OEM expects in terms of a residual value for their EVs after 36 months. Both GM and Nissan have announced 36-month lease programs with monthly payments of $350 ($2,500 down) and $349 ($1,999 down), respectively. Factoring in Volt and Leaf MSRPs of $41,000 and $32,780 less a federal tax credit of $7,500 (which in a lease arrangement is available only to the lessor) and assuming a conservative money factor, residuals for both models fall somewhere in the high-5 to mid-6 range. These figures are reasonable given past hybrid performance and near-term fuel price and supply assumptions Source: NADA Used Car Guide, AuctionNet Figure 2 AuctionNet Hybrid v. Non-Hybrid Trends Vehicle Age 1-to-60 Mos. Honda Civic Gas Honda Civic Hybrid Toyota Corolla Gas Toyota Prius 6

7 Electric Vehicles (continued ) Looking farther ahead, new sales are forecasted to increase significantly in calendar years 12 and 13 for both the Volt and the Leaf (fig. 3); as such, a downward adjustment of residual values may be in store for those model years. Supply aside, fuel prices and real-world driving performance remain wildcards. Should fuel prices increase unexpectedly and remain at an elevated level, actual retention may be akin to what was seen two years ago on hybrids. Conversely, if the technology does not meet customer expectations, actual retention may be considerably less. Summary New Vehicle Sales Forecast Calendar Year Chevrolet Volt Nissan Leaf ,010 15, ,175 43, ,165 54,093 Source: IHS Global Insight Figure 3 It s our expectation that EV performance in both the new and used markets will initially be strong due to a limited supply and high demand among the urban, environmentally-conscious target demographic. Although federal tax credits of up to $7,500 should help considerably in driving new vehicle sales, they could have a detrimental impact on the used side if consumers are unwilling to pay more for a used EV than what it would cost new, less the credit. It should be noted that federal tax credits will be phased out and ultimately terminated after a given manufacturer produces 200,000 eligible EVs. Sales performance aside, the arrival of the Volt and Leaf represent the passing of another milestone in the emerging history of alternative fuel technologies and presents electricity with an opportunity to help shape the industry s approach to light vehicle propulsion in the future. 7

8 NADA Returning Supply Forecast: Expectations through Q1 11 NADA s Returning Used Supply Forecast estimates the time it takes for a new vehicle to enter the used vehicle market, and is derived from actual new vehicle registrations. As we begin the third quarter of 2010, we felt it would be a good time to summarize our returning supply outlook for the remainder of year through the first quarter of 2011 to assist dealers and remarketers in their short-term buying and selling strategies. General Outlook The table below highlights NADA s returning used supply assumptions by registration type. Registration Type Period Change I II III IV I Lease Personal Rental QoQ QoQ QoQ 12% -4% -13% 4% 19% 1% -13% 12% 35% -9% -29% 14% 1 1% -7% YoY YoY YoY -6% -3 1% -3% -24% 1% -2% 5-8% -9% 35% -1-5% 43% QoQ = Quarter-over-Quarter; YoY = Year-over-Year A summary of the data presented is as follows: Although off-lease volume is expected to be down QoQ through Q4, volume will pick back up in the first quarter of This will mark the first QoQ increase since the second quarter of On a YoY basis however, off-lease volume will trend down over the next two quarters, a trend that is predicted to continue at least through Heading into the fourth quarter, returning personal volume will drop close to 3 and will remain flat through Q1 11. Off-rental supply will continue to increase through the fourth quarter, adding an additional 14% to the 35% increase seen in Q3. Although off-rental volume won t come close to pre-recession levels any time soon, 2011 should mark the second straight year for rental volume growth, which is a positive sign for the industry and the economy as a whole. Off-Lease Outlook As stated previously, off-lease volume will continue to trend downward through at least 2012 for the majority of brands. As such, a comprehensive model-by-model review for those brands with a strong leasing presence (for our purposes, >4) is unnecessary; however, we believe supply trends for the following models are worth noting. 8

9 Supply Expectations through Q1 11 (continued ) Audi Although down Q3 v. Q2, A4 off-lease volume should jump dramatically in the fourth quarter before dropping slightly in the first quarter of Lease return volume on the A5 will continue to increase, with Q4 improving by 88% over Q3. This will represent the first large influx of volume for this model in the used market. The first sample of Q5 used supply will begin creeping up in the first quarter of BMW 3 Series volume will continue to decline through Q1 11, averaging ~8% per quarter. 5 Series volume will show a QoQ increase in the fourth quarter, but will head down again in the first few months of Infiniti Although G35 coupe and sedan supply will continue to wane, G37 supply, particularly on the coupe, should continue to increase at a double-digit clip over the course of the next two quarters. The EX35, introduced in 2008, should realize a significant increase in off-lease supply heading into 2011 as increasing numbers of three year lease terms mature. Jaguar Similar to the Infiniti EX35, XF returning supply should increase significantly heading into Q1 11. Lexus Off-lease supply for all models will be down or flat with few exceptions. Mercedes-Benz The C, CLK, and GL Classes should all experience increases YoY and/or QoQ through Q1 11. Although volumes will be relatively low, GLK supply should increase markedly heading into the first part of 2011 as shorter term leases mature. Volvo C30, C70, and S80 off-lease supply should continue to trend upward as we move into the first quarter of It is worth mentioning that lower off-lease supply and higher used prices will most likely mean more vehicles will be retained by either the lessee or the grounding dealer end-of-term. 9

10 Average Price Supply Expectations through Q1 11 (continued ) Off-Rental Outlook After a prolonged holding period necessitated by the recession, rental firms began ramping up the replacement of aging fleets in late 2009 and early 2010 with 2010MY units. Although we began seeing these vehicles at auction in greater numbers in August, we anticipate off-rental volume peaking in the fourth quarter and into the first part of Of those brands representing ~8 of all rental volume YTD Chevrolet, Chrysler, Dodge, Ford, Hyundai, Kia, Nissan, and Toyota Chevrolet, Dodge (cars), and Hyundai should see the largest increase in off-rental volume over the next two quarters. At a model level, we anticipate seeing large increases in off-rental volume for the Chevy Traverse, Kia Sorento, Hyundai Elantra, and Kia Optima, among others (see table at right). Concerns have arisen for certain high volume rental models, as increasingly large off-rental volume has led to above average declines in used price, especially relative to older cohorts. This type of relationship has the potential to create a drag on prices for all model years unless the volume trend is quickly reversed. Returning Rental Supply Forecast: % Change From Preceding Quarter* Brand/Model Q Q Brand/Model Q Q Chevrolet Aveo 103% 47% Ford Fusion 41% -26% Chevrolet Cobalt 62% -44% Ford Mustang -12% 22% Chevrolet Equinox -49% 78% Ford Ranger -17% 37% Chevrolet HHR 22% 56% Hyundai Accent 17% -61% Chevrolet Impala 27% 19% Hyundai Elantra 208% 74% Chevrolet Malibu -29% 132% Hyundai Santa Fe -27% -73% Chevrolet Silverado % -33% Hyundai Sonata 64% 93% Chevrolet Suburban % 13% Jeep Patriot 16% 9% Chevrolet Tahoe -24% 3 Kia Forte -13% -27% Chevrolet Traverse 7 288% Kia Optima 183% -59% Chrysler Sebring -2% -14% Kia Rio -6 26% Chrysler Town & Country 56% -15% Kia Sorento 256% -11% Dodge Avenger -3% 18% Mazda Mazda3-1% -56% Dodge Caliber -15% 134% Nissan Altima -24% -66% Dodge Charger 143% 2% Nissan Sentra -19% -53% Dodge Grand Caravan -11% -41% Nissan Versa 108% -55% Dodge Journey -46% -4 Subaru Forester 19% 12% Dodge Ram % 15% Subaru Legacy 17% -15% Ford Econoline Van 104% -55% Toyota Camry 2-17% Ford Edge 7% -19% Toyota Corolla -36% -18% Ford Escape 66% -41% Toyota Prius 1-57% Ford Explorer -26% 38% Toyota Sienna 61% 69% Ford Focus 37% -35% *Models w/ returning rental supply above 1K units for each quarter. AuctionNet average price trends for the Dodge Caravan clearly illustrate this (fig. 1). In this case, high fleet returns on 2010 models created a disruption in used price performance, leading to a scenario in which the 2010 model was actually selling for less than its 2009 counterpart. This prompted a quick market correction in July on 09MY prices, which depreciated dramatically in order to create a rational relationship with the 10MY; this in turn placed downward pressure on the 08MY. $19,000 $18,500 AuctionNet Average Price Trends: Dodge Grand Caravan SXT 3.8L V6 (Mileage Adjusted) '08MY $ '09MY $ '10MY $ As clearly seen on the Dodge Caravan example, a sustained infusion of off-rental volume has the potential to soften used vehicle prices on later model year units. This being said, the additional supply of units in high demand (e.g. Chevrolet Traverse) will be welcomed by dealers and consumers alike, as the supply will partially offset YoY off-lease and personal volume declines and as the Spring selling season approaches. $18,000 $17,500 $17,000 $16,500 $16,000 $15,500 $15,000 $14,500 $14,000 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Source: AuctionNet Figure 1 10

11 Percent Change NADA Returning Used Supply Forecast About NADA s Returning Used Supply Forecast NADA s Returning Used Supply Forecast estimates the time it takes for a new vehicle to enter the used vehicle market, and is derived from actual new vehicle registrations. Return dates and rates are based on the original registration type (i.e. rental fleet, lease, or personal use). 12% 1 8% 6% 4% NADA Returning Used Supply Forecast: All Registration Types Change in 3 Moving Average 2% -2% -4% -6% -8% -1-12% Source: R.L. Polk, NADA NADA Returning Used Supply Forecast: Percent Change From Preceding Period Vehicle Type Car Light Truck Registration Type I II III IV I Total 17% 6% -19% 2% Lease 15% 9% -14% -9% 12% Personal -2% 25% 9% -29% 1% Rental -9% -5% 3 18% -4% Total -3% 1 11% -23% 1% Lease 1-1% -12% -1 7% Personal -5% 13% 15% -29% 1% Rental -2 15% 43% 6% -14% 11

12 Price P/Gal. Price P/Gal. NADA Fuel Forecasts About NADA s Fuel Forecasts NADA s Fuel Forecasts are created by measuring the long-run trend in the national average price of regular grade gasoline and diesel fuel. Price intervals are provided for each forecast to support longer-term strategic planning. NADA Fuel Forecast: ly Average Price of Regular Grade Gasoline October 2010 $4.25 $4.00 S.E. - 1 Baseline S.E. + 1 $3.75 $3.50 $3.25 $3.00 $2.75 $2.50 $2.25 $2.00 $1.75 $1.50 $5.00 $4.75 NADA Fuel Forecast: ly Average Price of Diesel October 2010 S.E. - 1 Baseline S.E. + 1 $4.50 $4.25 $4.00 $3.75 $3.50 $3.25 $3.00 $2.75 $2.50 $2.25 $

13 Days' Supply Volume (Millions) Retail Market Indicators New Vehicle Sales Retail market indicators convey information on the performance of the new and used vehicle markets. Total vehicle sales are core indicators of consumer demand and overall industry health. Supply is a measurement used to gauge the relationship between supply and demand, and provides an indication of pricing strength in general. 1.2 New Vehicle Sales New Vehicle Sales YoY Change % Change Source: WardsAuto.com 80 New Vehicle Days' Supply Days' Supply YoY Change % Change Source: WardsAuto.com Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (Millions) Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep Source: WardsAuto.com 13

14 Days' Supply Volume (Millions) Retail Market Indicators Used Vehicle Sales Used Vehicle Sales Used Vehicle Sales YoY Change 1 4 5% % % Change % Source: CNW 70 Used Vehicle Days' Supply Days' Supply YoY Change % Change Source: CNW 14

15 Index (SA) Rate (SA) Economic Drivers Unemployment and Consumer Confidence are two of the most important economic drivers behind both a consumer s ability and willingness to make a new or used vehicle purchase, and are provided as indicators on the future outlook for both markets. 12% Unemployment Rate 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Source: Moody's Databuffet 120 Consumer Confidence Index Source: Moody's Databuffet, The Conference Board 15

16 NADAguides.com Consumer Site Trends New Activity About NADAguides.com NADAguides.com is the most comprehensive vehicle information website on the internet today, offering a broad range of information and services to help educate consumers in the market to buy, sell, trade, or simply shop for a vehicle. The figures contained below are based on consumer activity at and are calculated by measuring the number of unique lookups for a given period of time. Scion Jeep Buick Land Rover Hummer Toyota Saab Kia Lexus Subaru Smart Cadillac Lincoln Ford Volvo Porsche Mercedes-Benz Dodge Saturn Hyundai GMC Chevrolet Chrysler Mercury Infiniti MINI Nissan Mazda BMW Honda Mitsubishi Volkswagen Acura Audi Suzuki Pontiac Jaguar YoY Change in Consumer Activity: NEW Make Source: NADAguides.com -6% -1 8% 27% 24% 21% 42% 41% 35% 47% 42% 55% 5 65% 63% 61% 58% 75% 74% 72% 81% 81% 98% 95% 94% 92% 112% 109% 107% 104% 131% 122% 132% 142% 209% 231% Percent Change New: Top 15 Researched Models September 2010 September 2010 Rank MoM Change MY Make Model Ford F Chevrolet Camaro Chevrolet Silverado Toyota Camry Ford Mustang 6 (3) 2011 Jeep Grand Cherokee Dodge Ram Ford Fusion Nissan Altima 10 (5) 2010 Honda Accord Sdn Toyota Corolla 12 (3) 2010 Chevrolet Equinox Ford Mustang Chevrolet Malibu 15 (1) 2010 Subaru Forester New: Top 15 Researched Models September 2009 September 2009 Rank MY Make Model Chevrolet Camaro Ford F Toyota Camry-4 Cyl Ford Mustang Honda CR-V Toyota Corolla-4 Cyl Ford F Nissan Altima Chevrolet Silverado Honda Accord Sdn Chevrolet Equinox Honda Civic Sdn Chevrolet Silverado Ford ESCAPE Ford Fusion 16

17 NADAguides.com Consumer Site Trends Used Activity YoY Change in Consumer Activity: USED Make Hummer Kia Audi Saturn Scion Toyota MINI Honda Mercedes-Benz Nissan Cadillac GMC Acura Chevrolet Mercury Buick Lexus Hyundai Volkswagen Mazda Jeep Ford Mitsubishi Saab Lincoln Dodge BMW Porsche Land Rover Suzuki Chrysler Infiniti Pontiac Volvo Jaguar -25% -1% -2% -2% -2% -3% -3% -3% -4% -4% -4% -5% -5% -6% -6% -6% -7% -7% -8% -8% -11% -11% -14% -15% 8% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 3% 3% 1% % -2-15% -1-5% 5% 1 15% Source: NADAguides.com Percent Change Used: Top 15 Researched Models September 2010 September 2010 Rank MoM Change Make Model 1 0 Ford F Chevrolet Silverado Nissan Altima 4 2 Dodge Ram (1) Honda Accord Sdn 6 (1) Toyota Camry 7 0 Chevrolet Impala 8 0 Ford Mustang 9 0 Ford Super Duty F Chevrolet Tahoe 11 1 Chevrolet Silverado 2500HD 12 2 BMW 3 Series 13 0 Chevrolet Cobalt 14 (3) Toyota Corolla 15 2 Ford Escape Used: Top 15 Researched Models September 2009 September 2009 Rank Make Model 1 Chevrolet Silverado 2 Ford F150 3 Honda Accord 4 Dodge Ram Ford Mustang 6 Nissan Altima 7 GMC Sierra 8 Honda Civic 9 Chevrolet Impala 10 Ford F Toyota Camry 12 Chevrolet Tahoe 13 Jeep Grand Cherokee 14 Chevrolet Trailblazer 15 BMW 3 Series 17

18 Guidebook Value Trends Year-Over-Year NADA Used Car Guide Value Change: Oct '09 v. Oct '10* NADA Segment 5YR 4YR 3YR 2YR 1YR YoY Segment Change (All Ages) Compact CUV 11.9% 23.1% 10.2% 11.5% 12.3% 10.7% Compact Pickup 14.5% 16.2% 14.8% % 14.8% Compact SUV % 24.7% 11.1% 3.9% 24.9% Entry Compact % 25.4% 20.6% 10.3% 17.2% Entry Subcompact 10.6% 6.8% 12.9% 22.4% 8.8% 18.8% Intermediate Compact 11.3% 16.9% 8.1% 13.1% 8.3% 10. Intermediate Large 37.1% 19.1% 15.6% 17.9% 12.8% 13. Intermediate Mid-Size 20.9% 18.1% 18.2% 11.3% 5.4% 11.4% Intermediate Subcompact 12.5% -1.7% -21.6% % 1.2% Large Pickup % 16.9% 10.8% 4.9% 10.5% Large SUV 24.5% 16.7% 28.5% 11.1% 4.7% 16.9% Large Van 13.3% 23.8% 22.9% 24.2% 18.1% 26.4% Luxury Compact 17.4% 11.7% 23.2% % 15.8% Luxury Large 22.8% 17.1% 20.5% 21.5% 15.2% 22. Luxury Large Pickup 35.7% 9.1% 16.6% 15.8% 30.3% 14.6% Luxury Large SUV 15.8% 16.2% 24.7% 19.2% 12.7% 18. Luxury Mid-Size 20.8% % 9.6% 8.3% 15.5% Luxury Mid-Size CUV 9.5% 16.5% % 7.3% 4.3% Luxury Mid-Size SUV 32.7% 28.5% 29.1% -0.1% 14.3% 15.1% Mid-Size CUV 10.9% 27.6% 20.2% 14.1% 12.7% 11.6% Mid-Size SUV 26.4% 27.4% 22.3% 19.6% 16.7% 19.5% Mid-Size Van 24.5% 29.8% 13.8% 30.3% 16.6% 18.3% Near Luxury Compact 14.1% 21.9% 15.3% 19.6% 11.3% 10.4% Near Luxury Mid-Size 10.6% 11.7% 12.9% 14.3% 8.1% 31.7% Premium Luxury Compact 18.8% -1.6% 15.2% 16.3% 6.7% 10.5% Premium Luxury Large 14.7% 17.2% 31.8% 17.1% 7.8% 12.9% Premium Luxury Large SUV 9.5% 18.3% 8.7% % 8.5% Premium Luxury Mid-Size 10.4% 17.6% 18.7% 9.6% 11.1% 9.6% Premium Luxury Mid-Size CUV 14.3% % 24.7% 17.3% 11. Upper Compact 11.2% 10.6% 16.7% 10.8% 12.7% 6.2% Upper Large % 14.8% % 13.1% Upper Mid-Size % 12.5% 8.8% 26.6% 12.2% Upper Subcompact 10.4% 3.5% % 11.7% 12.5% *Calculations are based on vehicle age. I.e. Values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2010 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2009. ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value Change: Oct '09 v. Oct '10* YoY Segment NADA Segment 5YR 4YR 3YR 2YR Change (All Ages) Commercial Van % 32.4% 46.6% 28.1% Extended Hood % 38.7% % Highway Aerodynamic 63.2% 47.3% 52.2% % Highway Traditional 80.1% 46.1% 47.6% 50.2% 57.8% Local/Delivery Daycab 55.8% 42.4% 42.4% 49.9% 45.5% Medium Duty Cabover % 39.9% 34.9% 28.5% Medium Duty Conventional 21.6% % 36.9% 27.2% Vocational/Construction 2.6% 6.3% 11.7% 46.1% -2.6% *Calculations are based on vehicle age. I.e. Values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2010 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicles in CY

19 Guidebook Value Trends Year-To-Date NADA Used Car Guide Value Change: Jan - Oct 2010 NADA Segment 2005MY 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY* YTD Segment Change (All MYs) Compact CUV -6.5% -8.5% -6.9% % -7.3% Compact Pickup -4.9% -2.2% -2.4% -2.9% -0.3% -3.1% Compact SUV -2.9% -1.6% -3.7% -3.3% % Entry Compact -5.4% 0.6% -2.2% -6.1% -9.2% -3.6% Entry Subcompact -7.4% -10.4% -11.3% % -10.3% Intermediate Compact -8.1% -7.7% -5.8% -5.9% -5.3% -6.8% Intermediate Large -2.8% -2.3% -2.3% -5.2% -4.7% -4.2% Intermediate Mid-Size -5.5% -5.5% -5.6% % -5.6% Intermediate Subcompact -10.5% -9.9% % -3.9% -9.2% Large Pickup -5.1% -5.5% -4.1% -5.3% -2.1% -4.8% Large SUV -4.8% -6.1% -6.3% -6.9% -1.9% -5.2% Large Van 0.2% 2.5% 3.1% -0.7% % Luxury Compact -5.1% % -6.1% -2.1% -5.8% Luxury Large % -10.1% -13.6% -6.6% -10.1% Luxury Large Pickup -3.6% -3.5% -4.2% -3.7% -1.2% -3.8% Luxury Large SUV -7.4% -6.3% % -5.4% -7. Luxury Mid-Size -5.2% -7.8% -8.6% -9.5% -4.3% -7.9% Luxury Mid-Size CUV -7.4% % -9.7% -4.1% -9.4% Luxury Mid-Size SUV % -9.2% -10.9% -4.4% -8.8% Mid-Size CUV -7.3% -8.2% -7.6% -6.6% -3.6% -7.4% Mid-Size SUV -3.8% % -1.8% -3.3% -3. Mid-Size Van -3.8% -6.2% -6.5% -6.7% -1.8% -4.4% Near Luxury Compact -6.8% % -6.8% -4.5% -6.8% Near Luxury Mid-Size -9.6% -9.7% -15.6% % -11.1% Premium Luxury Compact -3.5% -3.5% -2.7% -5.5% -3.1% -3.9% Premium Luxury Large -6.8% -8.2% -12.6% -11.8% -3.8% -9.7% Premium Luxury Large SUV -6.4% -10.3% -10.9% -9.5% -5.3% -9.4% Premium Luxury Mid-Size -6.7% -8.4% -10.2% -9.7% -4.7% -8.9% Premium Luxury Mid-Size CUV -1.9% -6.3% % -5.7% -8.9% Upper Compact -5.5% -5.9% -4.1% % -5.4% Upper Large -2.5% % -0.4% -4.5% -1.8% Upper Mid-Size -9.3% -8.9% % -3.8% -7.9% Upper Subcompact -7.7% % -2.9% -5.4% *May 2010 through current period. ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value Change: Jan - Oct 2010 NADA Segment 2005MY 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY YTD Segment Change (All MYs) Commercial Van 4.1% 6.2% 7.5% 12.1% 10.1% Extended Hood 22.6% 11.8% 9.4% -6.1% 9.8% Highway Aerodynamic 10.2% 15.1% 12.6% -4.4% 0. Highway Traditional 25.5% 15.2% 11.6% -5.8% 9.5% Local/Delivery Daycab 13.8% 15.3% 9.9% -5.2% 8.2% Medium Duty Cabover -1.1% 2.6% -0.9% 2.5% 0.5% Medium Duty Conventional -1.6% 1.6% 2.2% % Vocational/Construction -0.5% 2.2% 1.7% -3.8%

20 At NADA Used Car Guide At NADA Used Car Guide Have you had an opportunity to try NADA on the go? In late September, we launched our NADA Online optimized mobile web application for Smartphones at no additional cost to NADA Online subscribers. Now, you can access our weekly Auction values (Low, Average, High) when you re in the lanes exactly when you need them the most. You ll also be able to reference the six other NADA values Trade-In (Rough, Average, Clean), Clean Loan and Clean Retail in order to make well-informed buying and selling decisions on the go. Go to for more information. We plan to roll mobile access out to select other products, such as NADA AppraisalPRO, towards the end of October. NADA Online Smartphone access Smarter, Faster, Mobile. On the Road See us out and about. We ll be in Booth #170 at the Digital Dealer Fall show in Las Vegas, October 12 th 14 th. Attend Stu Zalud s (szalud@nada.org) seminar Appraisal Process 2.0: Best practices to boost revenue, Tuesday, October 12 th at 2 PM. Afterwards, stop by the booth to talk to Stu about NADA Appraisal- PRO with 6 sources and 60 seconds, you ll reach one smart decision on what to offer for your trades. October 12 th 13 th finds Steve Stafford (sstafford@nada.org), Account Executive, at the Auto Finance Summit (AFS) in Las Vegas, booth #415. Stop by to determine how NADA values can help your company and learn more about the launch of new features in Experian Automotive s AutoCount, now including our values. About AuctionNet AuctionNet is an industry-unique wholesale transaction database, available exclusively from NADA Used Car Guide, in joint partnership with the National Auto Auction Association (NAAA). Over 90 million records strong and updated weekly, it captures sales from all Manheim and ADESA, as well as participating ABC, ServNet and large independent auctions, representing over 8 of nationwide auction activity. About NADA Used Car Guide CONTACTS: Financial, Legal, Analysts Steve Stafford x7275 sstafford@nada.org Credit Unions, Fleet/Leasing, Rental, Government Doug Ott x4710 dott@nada.org Dealers, OEMs, Captive Finance Yvonne Porter x4724 yporter@nada.org Business Development Manager Jim Gibson x7136 jgibson@nada.org Director, Sales, Customer Service, Insurance Dan Ruddy x4707 druddy@nada.org Media Jeff Beddow jbeddow@nada.org Over a 77-year history, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of market-reflective vehicle valuation products, services and information to businesses throughout the U.S. and worldwide. NADA s editorial team collects and analyzes over one million combined wholesale and retail automotive-related transaction prices per month. Its guidebooks, auction data, analysis, and data solutions offer automotive, financial, insurance, and government professionals the timely information and reliable solutions they need to make better business decisions. Visit Disclaimer: NADA Used Car Guide makes no representations about future performance or results based on the data and the contents available in this report ("Guidelines"). Guidelines is provided for informational purposes only and is provided AS IS without warranty or guarantee of any kind. By accessing Guidelines via or the NADA website, you agree not to reprint, reproduce, or distribute Guidelines without the express written permission of NADA Used Car Guide. 20