ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Update

Transcription

1 ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Update 2 nd Quarter Review The 2 nd Quarter of 2012 returned strong pricing results on average, although the rate of appreciation has moderated. Retail and wholesale pricing remains stable, with minor June weakness in late-model retail pricing and mileage-based fluctuations in wholesale pricing. Disappointing sales volume in May and June pushed that measure lower in Q versus Q Overall, the used truck market will remain stronger than the new truck market, with sales volume the main factor to watch. Retail Market Results The average Class 8 sleeper tractor sold retail in the 2 nd Quarter of 2012 was 74.3 months old, cost $48,707, and had 551,140 miles. See the Average Retail Price and Mileage All Sleeper Tractors graph for details. On a year-over-year basis, Q outperformed Q by 8.4%, despite mileage that was 6.1% higher. Four-year-old sleeper tractors (2009 model year) retailed in the second quarter brought $67,205 and had 437,359 miles. These figures were higher than Q by 5.0% and 4.3%, respectively. See the Average Retail Price and Mileage 4 Year Old graph for details. Comparing this quarter to last, the overall retail sleeper market in Q outperformed Q1 by 1.8%, with mileage 0.8% higher. Four-year-old sleepers were 4.8% lower in Q2, with mileage 8.8% higher. Looking specifically at June, the average sleeper tractor sold retail was 74 months old, cost $49,287, and had 548,404 miles. Average price was up 2.6% over May, with mileage down a negligible 0.4%. The average four-year-old sleeper retailed in June brought $66,250 and had 434,735 miles. This result compares unfavorably to May, with a 5.2% decrease in price on mileage 0.5% higher. Overall, retail Class 8 sleeper pricing remains at a historically high level. June s average selling price was the highest in nine months, despite slightly higher mileage. Trucks with mileage at or under 550,000 miles that meet trade terms are essentially guaranteed to bring strong money. Even higher-mileage trucks are performing better than last year. Late-model sleepers, as measured by the four-year-old benchmark, have fluctuated within a 5% range from month to month. Selling price has been relatively closely correlated to mileage, which suggests that actual demand is holding steady. At the same time, the 5.2% decrease in price from May to June is somewhat notable, given the similar mileage. At this point, consider us relatively unconcerned but very interested to see how next month performs. As it stands, 2009 model year trucks with average mileage remain a solid bet, even though that was the first full model year to feature Diesel Particulate Filters. Wholesale Market Results The average Class 8 sleeper tractor sold at auction or dealer-to-dealer in Q was 88.0 months old, cost $29,783, and had 655,337 miles. On a year-over-year basis, Q outperformed Q by 4.9%, with mileage 0.7% lower. See the Average Wholesale Price and Mileage graph for details. On a quarter-vs.-quarter basis, the overall sleeper market came in 15.4% lower in Q2 vs. Q1, with mileage 5.6% higher. Looking specifically at June, the average sleeper tractor sold at auction or dealer-to-dealer was 96 months old, cost $26,162 and had 691,704 miles. June s pricing was 19.7% lower than May s, which is largely explained by 9.4% increase in age and an 8.4% (Continued on page 2) 1

2 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) increase in mileage that put June well over the 650K inflection point. At the same time, June s result is 8.6% lower than the last month with similar mileage (March, 2012). Wholesale pricing has been nearly perfectly correlated to mileage since early Price paid at each mileage point has been largely consistent since that time, suggesting steady demand. Monthly fluctuations in our averages reflect limited data rather than shifts in purchasing habits. 650,000 miles remains the benchmark trucks with under that mileage can be expected to bring higher than average price, and vice-versa. Sales Volume The steep drop in retail sales volume from April to May in the dealer segment attracted our attention. See the Average Number of Sales per Rooftop graph for details. With new truck sales (deliveries) at a healthy level, we would expect used truck sales volume to be up, due to an increase in trade-ins. That has not been the case. The April to May dip was not entirely unusual, as May was a weak month in both 2011 and But volume rebounded in June of those years, while June 2012 recovered less than half the loss. One potential explanation for the volume decrease is that incoming trade-ins have higher mileage than the retail market supports. This basis for this theory is that fleets and individual owners ran their trucks longer than historically typical during the recession. If true, we would expect to see decreased retail selling prices for higher-mileage trucks, increased wholesale activity, and/or an increase in average mileage of trucks sold wholesale. First, as the Retail Selling Price by Mileage Range graph shows, selling price YTD is higher than last year in every mileage range. So if there is a greater supply of high-mileage trucks entering the retail marketplace, demand is still strong enough to support higher pricing. Next, looking at the wholesale market, the Distribution of Mileage graph shows that trucks sold in May did move up notably from April, specifically from the K brackets to the K brackets. This shift would support the higher mileage mix hypothesis. Finally, we will narrow our focus to late-model trucks specifically, those with higher-than-average mileage. These trucks should have had only one or two owners, which is the population most likely to have held their trucks longer than usual. Unfortunately, as the % of Sleeper Tractors graph illustrates, May s results are the opposite of what we would expect late-model trucks sold retail and wholesale in that month had proportionally lower mileage. The data is therefore inconclusive. In total, there were more higher-mileage trucks sold in May, but the proportion of newer trucks making up that group was lower instead of higher. As such, mileage mix can be considered only one potential factor for the drop in retail volume. At this point, we are comfortable considering last month a typically slow May. But June s tepid comeback may point to other changes. Combined with the mild decrease in late-model retail pricing, it is possible that some of the somewhat irrational pre-election caution is creeping into the used market. Next month s results should help to illuminate the situation. 2

3 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) Conclusion June s mixed signals are not enough to change our position that the low returning supply of late-model trucks will insulate that segment from fluctuations in demand. Domestic economic measures are mixed, but we would need to see a more clear contraction before we are to change this position. As always, we will update data in real-time at our Commercial Truck Blog at Average Retail Price and Mileage - All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles $55, $50, $45, $40, $35,000 $30,000 Price Mileage

4 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) Average Retail Price and Mileage: 4 Year Old Sleeper Tractors $85,000 $75, MY 2008MY 2009MY $65, $55, $45, $35,000 $25,000 Price Mileage Average Wholesale Selling Price: All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles $45, $40,000 $35,000 $30, $25, $20, $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage)

5 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) Average Number of Retail Sales per Rooftop (NADA Reporting Dealers) $120,000 $100,000 Retail Selling Price by Mileage Range: All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles $80,000 $60, To Date CY 2011 $40,000 $20,000 $0 5

6 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) 0.4 Distribution of Mileage of Trucks Sold Wholesale Apr May Jun Average Mileage in Thousands % of Sleeper Tractors with Higher than Average Mileage 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% Retail Wholesale 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Apr May Jun 6

7 NADA Guidebook Value Trends Month-Over-Month Monthly Change in Average NADA Official Used Car Guide Value: NADA Segment July 2012 v. August 2012 NADA Segment 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY 2011MY* Compact Car -4.7% -4.3% -4.4% -4.3% -4.5% Compact Utility -4.1% -3.3% -3.7% -3.1% -2.9% Large Pickup -2.2% -2.6% -1.9% -1.6% -2.1% Large SUV -1.8% -1.7% -1.8% -1.2% -1.2% Luxury Car -2.6% -2.5% -2.6% -2.0% -2.4% Luxury Utility -5.1% -3.8% -4.4% -3.3% -2.7% Mid-Size Car -4.2% -3.8% -3.9% -3.8% -3.7% Mid-Size Utility -3.6% -3.0% -2.7% -2.7% -2.8% Mid-Size Van -4.6% -4.2% -4.2% -3.7% -3.4% *Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. Monthly Change in Average ATD/NADA CTG Value: NADA Segment July 2012 v. August 2012 NADA Segment 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY* Commercial Van -3.3% -2.4% -7.3% -4.8% -2.6% Extended Hood 0.0% 0.0% -0.6% -0.6% 0.0% Highway Aerodynamic -0.1% -0.3% -1.1% 0.1% -0.3% Highway Traditional 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Local/Delivery Daycab -0.1% -0.2% -0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Medium Duty Cabover -10.6% -6.3% -3.6% -6.8% 0.0% Medium Duty Conventional 0.0% 0.0% -0.2% 3.6% 6.3% Vocational/Construction 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A *Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. 7

8 NADA Guidebook Value Trends Year-Over-Year Annual Change in NADA Official Used Car Guide Value: August, 2011 v NADA Segment 5YR 4YR 3YR 2YR 1YR YoY Segment Change Compact Car -1.8% -0.2% -3.6% -0.5% -5.2% -3.0% Compact Utility 1.5% 1.8% -0.7% 1.3% -1.8% -1.0% Large Pickup 14.6% 8.9% 8.0% 3.5% 7.7% 7.0% Large SUV 30.4% 15.4% 7.1% 2.8% 3.2% 7.7% Luxury Car 7.6% 5.2% 0.3% 3.2% -1.1% 3.8% Luxury Utility 4.5% 1.3% 4.0% 3.5% -3.2% -0.7% Mid-Size Car 2.6% -3.1% -9.1% -2.6% -3.3% -2.9% Mid-Size Utility 9.0% 5.7% 4.1% 3.5% -0.3% 1.9% Mid-Size Van -2.0% 12.8% 0.1% -3.2% 2.8% 6.3% *Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2011 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2010. Annual Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value: August, 2011 v NADA Segment 5YR 4YR 3YR 2YR YoY Segment Change Commercial Van 13.4% 17.9% -20.6% 9.8% 2.1% Extended Hood 16.8% 28.5% 6.6% -4.3% 8.1% Highway Aerodynamic 8.8% 37.1% 10.3% 2.5% 9.3% Highway Traditional 20.1% 28.6% 7.6% 4.4% 14.5% Local/Delivery Daycab 22.9% 39.3% 11.7% 4.1% 11.5% Medium Duty Cabover 15.2% 14.3% -5.0% N/A 4.8% Medium Duty Conventional 30.5% 27.2% 15.3% -1.0% 13.5% Vocational/Construction 20.0% 38.8% 7.4% N/A 13.6% *Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2010 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicles in CY

9 NADA Guidebook Value Trends Year-To-Date YTD Change in NADA Official Used Car Guide Value: January August 2012 NADA Segment 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY 2011MY* YTD Segment Change Compact Car -3.8% -3.9% -2.9% -2.5% -4.3% -3.4% Compact Utility -9.4% -9.0% -8.8% -6.8% -5.9% -7.5% Large Pickup -5.3% -6.1% -3.2% -2.7% -2.6% -3.9% Large SUV -4.3% -4.2% -3.1% -2.6% -3.8% -3.5% Luxury Car -8.1% -7.7% -9.1% -8.3% -7.1% -7.2% Luxury Utility -11.9% -10.5% -12.1% -10.3% -7.9% -10.1% Mid-Size Car -6.3% -5.3% -4.9% -5.1% -7.0% -5.8% Mid-Size Utility -9.4% -8.6% -7.4% -6.4% -6.0% -7.3% Mid-Size Van -11.4% -8.6% -9.6% -8.9% -7.2% -8.8% YTD Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value: January August 2012 NADA Segment 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY* YTD Segment Change Commercial Van -10.4% -8.5% -13.3% -1.9% 2.4% -7.0% Extended Hood 0.5% 1.8% -5.6% -12.9% -9.4% -3.5% Highway Aerodynamic -5.0% -4.3% -10.0% -12.1% -10.4% -8.3% Highway Traditional 1.3% 3.6% -4.7% -9.3% -9.4% -2.3% Local/Delivery Daycab 0.6% 0.6% -5.5% -7.8% -9.3% -4.8% Medium Duty Cabover -11.1% -6.3% -3.6% -5.3% N/A -4.7% Medium Duty Conventional -1.3% -3.4% -2.5% -7.1% 0.8% -0.8% Vocational/Construction 0.0% 0.0% -4.3% -4.2% N/A 1.8% 9

10 Guidelines July 2012 At NADA Used Car Guide At NADA Used Car Guide NADA is adding a Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) valuation to its used vehicle retail value effective September 1, Business professionals now have a guide to the typical premium added to the retail value when a given vehicle is initially sold under a manufacturer s certification program. NADA guidebooks and select online products will include the CPO value as an ADD in the Optional Equipment listing to the Retail value only. The CPO premium takes into account the warranty extension provided for the vehicle as well as the vehicle meeting the individual CPO program requirements of multi-point inspection, minimum age, maximum mileage, etc. On the Road Doug Ott, Account Executive at NADA Used Car Guide, will be attending the Automotive Fleet & Leasing Association (AFLA) forum on Sept 10-12, 2012 in San Antonio, TX. CONTACTS: Financial Industry/ Accounting/ Legal/OEM Captive Steve Stafford x7275 sstafford@nada.org Credit Unions, Fleet/Lease/ Rental Industry, Government Doug Ott x4710 dott@nada.org Automotive Dealers/Auctions, Insurance Jim Dodd x7115 jdodd@nada.org Automotive OEMs Stu Zalud x4636 szalud@nada.org Business Development Manager Jim Gibson x7136 jgibson@nada.org Director Sales and Customer Service Dan Ruddy x4707 druddy@nada.org About NADA Used Car Guide Over a 79-year history, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of market-reflective vehicle valuation products, services and information to businesses throughout the U.S. and worldwide. NADA s editorial team collects and analyzes over one million combined wholesale and retail automotive-related transaction prices per month. Its guidebooks, auction data, analysis, and data solutions offer automotive, financial, insurance, and government professionals the timely information and reliable solutions they need to make better business decisions. Visit Director Public Relations Charles Cyrill (mobile) ccyrill@nada.org Disclaimer: NADA Used Car Guide makes no representations about future performance or results based on the data and the contents available in this report ("Guidelines"). Guidelines is provided for informational purposes only and is provided AS IS without warranty or guarantee of any kind. By accessing Guidelines via or the NADA website, you agree not to reprint, reproduce, or distribute Guidelines without the express written permission of NADA Used Car Guide.