Guidelines. NADA Used Car Guide Industry Update. June NADA Guidebook Update NADA Official Used Car Guide IN THIS ISSUE:

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1 Guidelines June 2010 NADA Used Car Guide Industry Update IN THIS ISSUE: NADA Official Used Car Guide Update ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Update Rental Fleet Penetration Segment Spotlight: Large SUV AuctionNet Wholesale Market Trends NADA Returning Supply Forecast NADA Fuel Forecasts Retail Market Indicators Economic Drivers At NADA Used Car Guide NADA Guidebook Update NADA Official Used Car Guide Auction prices through May experienced minor declines relative to April, with several key segments continuing to experience subtle appreciation. Overall prices for 1-to-5 year old vehicles declined ~.5%, which is less than the expected seasonal drop for the industry. NADA predicted this trend and incorporated mild value depreciation for a large number of vehicles in the May and June editions of the Used Car Guide. The table shows the relatively stable environment expected from one month to the next, with most changes being around.5% from edition-to-edition. NADA s prior edition of Guidelines highlighted the reasons for the relative strength in the industry; primarily low supply relative to strong consumer demand. However, this strength is expected to moderate somewhat during the second half of the year as the effects of a stronger new vehicle market, the continuation of attractive new vehicle incentives, and a slight uptick in returning used supply notably in the overall supply for CUVs and off-rental supply in general apply downward pressure and help to stabilize used vehicle prices. This being said, several segments continue to outperform expectations, including the mid-size van segment, with YTD auction prices up by ~12%. Other notable movements during May includes large SUVs and large pickups, with both segments showing stability or increases even in light of the rather dramatic price increases experienced during 2009 and early Luxury segment auction prices continued to experience deprecation during May, and are lagging all other segments in terms of performance over the course of the year. Overall, auction prices continue to follow the expected course of stability and reflect a strong ly Change in Average UCG Value: NADA Segment May 2010 v. June 2010 NADA Segment 2005MY 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY* Compact CUV 0.1% -0.7% -0.1% -0.3% -0.3% Compact Pickup -0.3% -0.1% -0.3% 0.0% 0.8% Compact SUV 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% Entry Compact 0.0% 2.7% 2.2% 2.1% 0.0% Entry Subcompact 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% -0.6% Intermediate Compact 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% -0.1% Intermediate Large 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Intermediate Mid-Size 0.1% -0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% Intermediate Subcompact 0.0% 0.0% -0.4% -0.2% -0.5% Large Pickup 0.0% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Large SUV 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% -0.1% Large Van 1.3% 0.2% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% Luxury Compact 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% -0.1% Luxury Large 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.1% -0.7% Luxury Large Pickup 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Luxury Large SUV -0.2% -0.1% 0.2% -0.1% -0.1% Luxury Mid-Size -0.3% -0.4% -0.3% -0.6% -0.6% Luxury Mid-Size CUV -0.2% -0.5% -0.5% -0.3% 0.6% Luxury Mid-Size SUV -0.3% -0.1% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Mid-Size CUV -0.2% -0.4% -0.1% 0.2% -0.4% Mid-Size SUV 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% -0.1% Mid-Size Van 0.7% 0.6% 1.2% 0.3% -0.1% Near Luxury Compact 0.0% -0.4% 0.1% -0.1% -1.0% Near Luxury Mid-Size 0.0% -0.1% -0.9% -0.4% -1.0% Premium Luxury Compact 0.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% -0.1% Premium Luxury Large -0.4% -0.7% -0.8% -0.6% -0.3% Premium Luxury Large SUV -0.4% -0.7% -0.2% -0.2% -0.9% Premium Luxury Mid-Size -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.9% -0.5% Premium Luxury Mid-Size CUV 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% 0.0% -1.5% Upper Compact 0.3% -0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% Upper Large 0.8% 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% Upper Mid-Size -0.5% 0.0% -0.2% 0.1% -0.1% Upper Subcompact 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% *Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. market for used vehicles. June prices are expected to follow suit with no major price fluctuations foreseen at this time. NADA s editorial staff is always dedicated to providing timely new model year values, and has increased this emphasis for the 2010MY. For June 2010, NADA s customers can expect to see values on nearly MY models, which is an increase of 40 models relative to the number of valuations for the 2009MY through June of last year. One of the strengths of NADA s methodology is a valuation approach that incorporates wholesale, retail, and asking price data, allowing more vehicles to be valued than would be possible using wholesale data only. 1

2 NADA Guidebook Update ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide As is evident in the chart, most vehicles in the Commercial Truck Guide either stayed flat or appreciated for the June edition. Sales data suggest that selling prices for most segments of the Class 8 highway market have been increasing since January, with the trend most evident in the March time period. Daycabs and low-mileage sleeper tractors continue to lead the market, but the sector exhibiting the biggest improvement is aerodynamic sleeper trucks with average mileage. The implications of this phenomenon are extremely positive. From a demand perspective, we can infer that basic economic fundamentals are creating a need for additional freight capacity. From a supply perspective, buyers are removing trucks from the segment of the market with the highest number of available trucks. The impact of this market shift on our values is evident in the month -over-month increase in values noted in the chart. ly Change in Average CTG Value: NADA Segment May 2010 v. June 2010 NADA Segment 2005MY 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY* Commercial Van 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Extended Hood 9.2% 10.5% 10.6% 0.0% Highway Aerodynamic 0.3% 5.7% 6.7% 0.1% Highway Traditional 9.5% 14.7% 12.2% 0.0% Local/Delivery Daycab 3.2% 7.9% 5.7% 0.1% Medium Duty Cabover 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Medium Duty Conventional 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Vocational/Construction 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% *Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. We have also noted a major increase in the number of used trucks reported sold by our participating dealerships. The total number of trucks reported sold in March increased by more than 20% over February. In addition, the number of trucks sold per dealership increased over 40% in that time period. Preliminary data points to April sales being slightly higher than March. The two factors likely at work here are a need for reasonably-priced replacement equipment and a lack of available new trucks. The first factor is probably driven by fleets who chose not to go all-in with the pre-buy, as well as individual buyers thinking the time is right to upgrade older equipment. The second factor is simply the aftermath of the pre-buy namely, most of the new trucks built in the past few months are spoken for. The other encouraging piece of the puzzle is that the industry backlog (truck orders vs. build rate) is essentially zero, which indicates the industry has transitioned into a normal supply/demand cycle. In other words, new truck sales are being driven by actual freight demand rather than the pre-buy. And new truck sales have increased each month this year. Class 8 market strength appears to be limited to the highway market for now. Higher selling prices were not yet evident for construction trucks in the early part of the year. Commercial and infrastructure projects have simply not improved enough to warrant any real increase in demand for these vehicles. At the same time, there was no evidence of notable decreases in that segment. As such, we have left values mostly untouched. The medium duty market is finally showing some initial signs of improvement. Auction prices trended slightly upwards for the lighter weight classes of conventionals in the first quarter. It is possible that buyers have simply waited long enough to replace older trucks, and have regained enough confidence in the economy to take advantage of incentives and make a purchase. On the other hand, heavier GVW classes are still at the mercy of the weak residential construction market. We do not expect much change in this market overall until construction activity improves. To conclude, March appeared to mark a clear turnaround point in the Class 8 highway used truck market. Customers bought substantially more used trucks than at any point last year. Selling prices for the meat and potatoes segment of the market highway aerodynamic trucks with average mileage are firming up. Economic factors tied to the new and used Class 8 market are either up or flat. And new truck sales have been up since the beginning of the year despite the closing-out of the pre-buy, which points to higher natural demand. 2

3 Rental Fleet Penetration While much has been made of the steady increases in new sales volume overall, very little has been said about the proportion of sales that have actually been retailed versus those that are sold into daily rental fleets. New vehicle sales to daily rental firms offer clear benefits when volume, build, and remarketing are handled in a responsible way. Rental firms must incorporate new vehicles on a regular basis to keep fleets fresh and remain competitive by creating consistent demand. Manufacturers have another channel with which to record a new vehicle sale. Prices and volumes are negotiated before the sale thereby enabling planned production and accurate sales forecasting. Fleet vehicles provide a customer s first point of contact with a new model thereby creating awareness and exposure at a low cost to the consumer. Because of this, manufacturers should ensure that rental vehicle content mirrors retail demand to ensure a positive consumer experience as well as helping with remarketing. Strategic volume planning and remarketing preserves used vehicle value retention, which is a positive for all parties. If executed properly fleet sales do not erode brand value, and rental firms in a risk arrangement realize a greater return on investment at time of dispossession. There is a corrosive impact however when volume sold to rental firms becomes unbalanced relative to consumer demand, as used vehicle prices on 1, 2, and even 3-year old units bow to the pressure placed upon them by large supplies of off-rental units. The Rental Penetration Rate v. AuctionNet Data chart is a graphical representation of the relationship between a high rental penetration rate and used wholesale price for the Chrysler 300. While other variables are affecting the change in price seen in the graphic (seasonality can clearly be recognized), the negative correlation between high fleet penetration rates and used wholesale price is clear, especially when rates exceed 30%. It should be noted that a supply and demand imbalance is not the only concern. Consistently high rental fleet penetration rates can create a negative perception for a particular model in the consumer s mind; the Ford Taurus from two generations ago is a perfect example of this. For some time now, manufacturers have recognized the risks posed by rental fleet over-exposure and have made concerted efforts to intelligently manage the volume of vehicles placed into rental fleet. This has become somewhat easier for Domestic OEMs in the postbankruptcy era as production capacity is better aligned with overall demand. 3

4 Fleet Volume Rental Fleet Penetration (continued ) As seen in the New Rental Fleet Registrations chart, the volume of Domestic vehicles placed into rental fleet has directionally been moving downward since 2006, and although Asian OEM volume has remained fairly flat, there has been some brand reallocation as Korean makes have filled any voids left by their Japanese counterparts. Concentrating on Q4 and Q and 2010, respectively we notice that the trend for new rental fleet registrations has begun to swing back up again for both Domestic and Asian brands (European brands have historically placed low volumes into rental fleet). This is not totally unexpected and can generally be viewed as a positive sign of economic recovery albeit in nascent form. With this said, some brands and models bear watching more than others, especially those with a fleet penetration rate north of 30% (see Rental Fleet Penetration Rate chart). For example, the volume and penetration rates for certain Chrysler LLC models Chrysler Sebring (73%), Dodge Caliber (69%), Dodge Avenger (62%), and the Dodge Charger (61%) and certain Mitsubishi models Endeavor (63%) and Galant (75%) are high enough to have a notable impact on later model year used values when they enter the secondary market. NADA s Returning Used Supply Forecast (see page 9) assumes the majority of volume will return in the September/October time period. In summary, although demand for new vehicles has been considerably stronger in 2010 relative to the same period of time in 2009, for certain brands and models the real rate of recovery in consumer demand has been masked by a disproportionate number of sales to daily rental fleets. Further, the risk of used value erosion for these brands and models will be 225, , , , , ,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 Source: R.L. Polk higher than otherwise when large volumes of dispossessed rental units begin to enter the used market in the fall. As such, their price performance will bear closer scrutiny by NADA s editorial staff as that season approaches. - SATURN CHRYSLER MERCURY DODGE ISUZU MITSUBISHI JEEP KIA CHEVROLET NISSAN HYUNDAI FORD LINCOLN BUICK PONTIAC MAZDA CADILLAC VOLKSWAGEN SUZUKI TOYOTA GMC SUBARU Source: R.L. Polk New Rental Fleet Registrations: Brand Type January March 2010 Asian Domestic European Calendar Rental Fleet Penetration Rate: Brand 2009 Q1 v Q1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Penetration Rate 2010 Q Q1 Brand 2010 Q Q1 SUBARU 3% 5% GMC 4% 0% TOYOTA 6% 7% SUZUKI 7% 12% VOLKSWAGEN 8% 0% CADILLAC 10% 0% MAZDA 13% 21% PONTIAC 14% 6% BUICK 14% 0% LINCOLN 16% 4% FORD 17% 8% HYUNDAI 17% 22% NISSAN 18% 24% CHEVROLET 22% 2% KIA 22% 24% JEEP 24% 0% MITSUBISHI 26% 14% ISUZU 29% 7% DODGE 31% 11% MERCURY 39% 22% CHRYSLER 52% 20% SATURN 63% 0% 4

5 Price p/gal. Segment Spotlight: Large SUV The large SUV segment has experienced significant strength over the past 18 months, due in no small part to the relatively stable price of gasoline over the same period of time. Consumer demand has been strong for the models in this segment, which is in stark contrast to the majority of 2008 when gas prices were above $3 p/gal. Since July 2008, when gas prices reached a national average over $4 p/gal., the average used price for large SUVs aged 1-to-60 months has increased by more than 60%, while the average price of regular grade gasoline has decreased by ~30%. Used supply has also been a contributing factor in this growth, as OEMs scaled back new vehicle production following the course of events in With this said, many are wondering how much longer increases in used prices for the segment can continue. Clearly the answer lays in the future performance of the two variables which have contributed most to the segment s recent run of strength; gas prices and returning used supply. Gas Prices & Used Large SUV Prices Relationship Metrics Large SUVs provide a perfect example of where a sustained increase in gas prices has proven to have a negative impact on vehicle segments sensitive to fuel economy. The Large SUV Price Change v. Gas Prices chart graphically illustrates the high negative correlation between gas prices and used large SUV prices. To better understand this relationship, NADA developed a statistical model to measure the impact that gas prices have on used vehicle prices. Built into the model is an asymmetric relationship between used vehicle prices and the price of gas. NADA s model suggests a trigger point at $3 p/gal. That is, the impact of an increase in the price of gasoline on used vehicle prices is lower when the price of gasoline is in the $2-to-$3 range than it is when the price of gasoline is in the $3-to-$4 range. NADA predicts that if the price of gasoline were to fall from $3 to $2 p/gal., the average price of a large SUV would rise by roughly $1,300. If the price of gasoline were to increase from $3 to $4, the average price of a large SUV would decrease by approximately $1,900. Gas Price Outlook $4.50 $4.25 $4.00 $3.75 $3.50 $3.25 $3.00 $2.75 $2.50 $2.25 $2.00 $1.75 $1.50 $1.25 $1.00 Source: Moodys, AuctionNet Regular Gas $ *Prices have been adjusted for Mileage. With the economic recovery gaining steam, some analysts are predicting gas prices will approach and perhaps surpass $3 p/gal. The economy added 290,000 jobs in the month of April, and the Labor Department revised employment figures for February and March to show 121,000 more jobs were added than previously thought. On the other hand real GDP did not rise as much as analysts had expected, but the first quarter growth rate of 3.2% is still indicative of expansion. Even if the economic expansion takes root and the threat of a double dip recession fades, NADA is predicting wide swings in the price of gas, with our baseline forecast for the remainder of 2010 averaging ~ $2.90 p/gal., or + $.17 over the $2.73 average witnessed during the first quarter of the year (see page 10 for NADA s fuel forecasts). Large SUV Price Change v. Gas Prices Vehicle Age 1-to-60 mo. Large SUV 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% % % % Price Change Index (1/06 = 0) 5

6 Percent Change Segment Spotlight: Large SUVs (continued ) This being said, the threat of inflation and increasing global demand has the potential to push the price of gas towards $4 p/gal. With the Federal Reserve ballooning monetary base, inflation is inevitable unless the Fed reverses direction. Other economic indicators have the potential to mitigate this upward movement. The European bond crisis has caused the dollar to strengthen against the Euro, and a strong dollar typically indicates lower gas prices. Due to the unpredictability in these counterbalancing indicators, the safe bet is that fuel prices will continue to be volatile near-term, moving around NADA s baseline forecast (page 10). Returning Used Supply Forecast NADA s Returning Used Supply Forecast estimates the time a new vehicle takes to enter the used vehicle market. Return dates and rates are dependent on the original registration type (i.e. rental fleet, lease, or personal use). The Returning Used Supply Forecast chart illustrates that used supply for large SUVs entering the market for the first time began a downward trend in the latter half of Although there will be periods where returning supply increases on a month-to-month basis, NADA predicts that this downward trend will continue through 2010 Q3, with supply down ~9.4% compared to % NADA Returning Used Supply Forecast: Large SUV YoY Change - All Registrations Types 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Source: R.L. Polk, NADA Calendar Although 2010 North American production estimates have large SUVs increasing ~30% over an economically stifled 2009, overall production will still be ~15% below 2008 levels. Based on these estimates, it appears as if new vehicle production for the segment is in line with strengthening consumer demand and any harm to used vehicle prices will most likely be negligible. Given this, the biggest threat to the used price gains made by the segment near-term will be a significant increase in the price of gas, and while there is a chance that gas prices may go beyond $3 for some of the reasons mentioned previously, NADA anticipates the effect on used prices to be muted given the continued decline in overall used supply. 6

7 AuctionNet Wholesale Market Trends About AuctionNet AuctionNet is an industry-unique wholesale transaction database, available exclusively from NADA Used Car Guide, in joint partnership with the National Auto Auction Association (NAAA). Over 90 million records strong and updated weekly, it captures sales from all Manheim and ADESA, as well as participating ABC, ServNet and large independent auctions, representing over 80% of nationwide auction activity. 1.0% ly AuctionNet Price Change: 1 to 5 yr. Old Vehicles* Apr-10 vs May % 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% Car CUV Pickup SUV Van *Figures have been adjusted for both Mileage & Mix 25.0% YoY AuctionNet Price Change: 1 to 5 yr. Old Vehicles* May-09 vs May % 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Car CUV Pickup SUV Van *Figures have been adjusted for both Mileage & Mix 7

8 AuctionNet Wholesale Market Trends (continued ) With several notable exceptions, the wholesale auto market has shown mild depreciation from April to May. For vehicles aged 1-to-5 years, the CUV segment depreciated the most with prices down ~.7%, while Passenger cars exhibited flatter performance, depreciating less than.6%. However, not every segment depreciated as Pickup, SUV, and Van prices posted mild gains. The primary factor contributing to these ly Change in Average AuctionNet Price: NADA Segment trends has been the atypically slow rise in April 2010 v. May 2010 fuel prices through the spring of this year. Between 2006 and 2009, gas prices rose NADA Segment 2005MY 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY on average 31% from the beginning of the Compact CUV -1.5% -1.5% -1.0% -1.4% -0.5% year to the middle of May. For 2010 however, prices are up only 7.5% from January Compact Pickup -1.2% -3.2% -1.6% -5.1% 1.5% Compact SUV -2.3% 0.3% -0.2% 0.1% 1.2% through mid-may. This trend seems to Entry Compact -1.0% 0.0% -3.8% -2.5% -2.0% have allayed consumer concerns surrounding vehicle operating costs and certainly makes an SUV purchase an attractive and viable prospect. Entry Subcompact Intermediate Compact Intermediate Large Intermediate Mid-Size -0.3% -2.8% -2.6% -2.6% -1.3% -2.9% -1.5% -3.1% -3.8% -1.2% -1.9% -2.1% -4.3% -0.3% -1.8% -0.1% -0.4% -2.8% -3.6% -2.0% In addition, used SUV and Pickup supply Intermediate Subcompact 2.6% -2.6% -0.2% 0.2% -0.2% continues to be relatively low compared to Large Pickup -1.3% -1.7% -0.7% -0.9% -1.6% historical norms. While this low supply has Large SUV -1.9% -1.7% -0.9% 0.3% -3.4% facilitated higher prices, there does appear Large Van 4.1% -0.1% -0.4% 2.3% 1.0% to be a pattern of price stabilization in the auction lanes. The relative lack of variance from average price is most likely the result of a limited supply of clean vehicles, as well as buyer reluctance to stretch and overpay for vehicles in average condition. Luxury Large Luxury Large Pickup Luxury Large SUV Luxury Mid-Size Luxury Mid-Size CUV Luxury Mid-Size SUV -0.9% -2.1% -1.0% -13.0% -3.6% -2.0% -4.6% -3.6% -3.1% 0.5% -1.4% -1.3% 0.9% -1.5% -1.3% 1.4% -2.4% -1.9% -2.4% -0.8% -0.5% 1.6% -1.8% -1.3% -0.8% -3.0% -2.1% -4.0% -0.7% -0.9% If fuel prices continue trending downward Mid-Size CUV -2.0% -2.9% -1.3% -2.9% -4.0% near-term as they have over the last few Mid-Size SUV -2.1% -2.0% -1.8% -0.9% -1.6% weeks, retail demand may increase for Mid-Size Van -2.5% -2.8% -0.5% -1.6% -0.6% these segments, adding additional support Near Luxury Compact 0.1% -1.2% -1.4% -2.2% 0.8% to their already strong wholesale prices. Near Luxury Mid-Size -4.1% -3.6% 0.8% -3.2% -3.0% The reverse is true on fuel-efficient vehicles, Premium Luxury Large -3.2% 2.4% -0.5% -6.2% 1.2% which thrive in the marketplace when Premium Luxury Large SUV 5.1% -2.0% 4.3% -1.9% 5.5% gas prices rise quickly. Without high fuel prices and the anticipation that prices will Premium Luxury Mid-Size CUV Upper Compact -7.2% -2.0% -1.1% -3.7% -0.7% 0.2% -5.2% -2.8% 0.8% -1.6% increase, much of the demand for compact Upper Large -3.0% -0.4% -2.0% -1.2% -1.8% cars and hybrid vehicles has waned. For Upper Mid-Size -0.6% -2.9% -0.3% -0.6% -1.5% example, the average price increase in the *Underlying data has been adjusted for Mileage & Mix. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. Intermediate Compact segment from January to May is approximately 2% this year, compared to nearly 12% last year. NADA foresees only modest rises in fuel prices during the summer which should contribute to relatively flat market prices. Anticipating this, NADA values in most segments should either remain steady or trend down slightly and likely will not be subject to the price volatility we have seen in the recent past. 8

9 Percent Change NADA Returning Used Supply Forecast About NADA s Returning Used Supply Forecast NADA s Returning Used Supply Forecast estimates the time it takes for a new vehicle to enter the used vehicle market, and is derived from actual new vehicle registrations. Return dates and rates are based on the original registration type (i.e. rental fleet, lease, or personal use). 10% NADA Returning Used Supply Forecast: All Registration Types Year-over-Year Change 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Source: R.L. Polk, NADA NADA Returning Used Supply Forecast: NADA Segment 2009 v. 2010* NADA Segment Personal Lease Rental Total Car -1% 6% 3% 1% CUV 7% 8% -1% 7% Pickup -6% -14% 29% -6% SUV -15% -10% 8% -13% Van -6% -9% -2% -6% *Through October for each CY. 9

10 Price P/Gal. Price P/Gal. NADA Fuel Forecasts About NADA s Fuel Forecasts NADA s Fuel Forecasts are created by measuring the long-run trend in the national average price of regular grade gasoline and diesel fuel. Price intervals are provided for each forecast to support longer-term strategic planning. NADA Fuel Forecast: ly Average Price of Regular Grade Gasoline June 2010 $4.25 $4.00 S.E. -1 Baseline S.E. +1 $3.75 $3.50 $3.25 $3.00 $2.75 $2.50 $2.25 $2.00 $1.75 $1.50 $1.25 $1.00 Calendar $5.00 $4.75 $4.50 $4.25 $4.00 $3.75 $3.50 $3.25 $3.00 $2.75 $2.50 $2.25 $2.00 $1.75 $1.50 $1.25 $1.00 NADA Fuel Forecast: ly Average Price of Diesel June 2010 S.E. -1 Baseline S.E. +1 Calendar 10

11 Days' Supply Volume (Millions) Retail Market Indicators New Vehicle Sales Retail market indicators convey information on the performance of the new and used vehicle markets. Total vehicle sales are core indicators of consumer demand and overall industry health. Supply is a measurement used to gauge the relationship between supply and demand, and provides an indication of pricing strength in general. 1.4 New Vehicle Sales New Vehicle Sales YoY Change 30% % 1 10% % -10% % Change % % 0-40% Source: WardsAuto.com 80 New Vehicle Days' Supply Days' Supply YoY Change 20% 70 10% 60 0% 50-10% % -30% % Change 20-40% 10-50% 0-60% Source: WardsAuto.com 11

12 Days' Supply Volume (Millions) Retail Market Indicators Used Vehicle Sales Used Vehicle Sales Used Vehicle Sales YoY Change 10% 4 5% 3.5 0% % % Change % 1-15% % Source: CNW 70 Used Vehicle Days' Supply 10% Days' Supply YoY Change 60 0% 50-10% 40-20% 30-30% % Change 20-40% 10-50% 0-60% Source: CNW 12

13 Index (SA) Rate (SA) Economic Drivers Unemployment and Consumer Confidence are two of the most important economic drivers behind both a consumer s ability and willingness to make a new or used vehicle purchase, and are provided as indicators on the future outlook for both markets. 12% Unemployment Rate 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: Moody's Databuffet 120 Consumer Confidence Index Source: Moody's Databuffet, The Conference Board 13

14 At NADA Used Car Guide Make sure that you re using the newest version of NADA Online and get all eight NADA values auction, retail, trade-in and loan. If you re not seeing all of these values in the above categories, then give us a call at so that we can show you how you can. On the Road See us out and about. From June 2 nd 4 th, we will be a sponsor at the NAF Annual Below- Prime Auto Financing Conference in Texas. Then, from June 6 th 8 th, Dan Ruddy (druddy@nada.org), Director of Sales, will be in Booth #29 at the CBA Live 2010 event. Stop by and discuss our new auction values and how they can help with your remarketing business. We couldn t miss exhibiting at the NIADA Annual Convention and Expo in Las Vegas and sponsoring their annual Quality Dealer of the Year Award. See us in Booth #407 June 15 th 17 th and learn more from Jim Gibson (jgibson@nada.org) about how our latest dealer product, NADA AppraisalPRO, can boost your profitability. Doug Ott (dott@nada.org), Account Executive, Credit Unions, will be at LSCU Convention and Expo June 16 th 19 th in Booth #801. NADA Online is the perfect product to help speed your loan origination, so talk to Doug about how he can get you set up with access. CONTACTS: Financial, Legal, Analysts Steve Stafford x7275 sstafford@nada.org Credit Unions, Fleet/Leasing, Rental, Government Doug Ott x4710 dott@nada.org Dealers, OEMs, Captive Finance Yvonne Porter x4724 yporter@nada.org Value Added Resellers (VARs) Jim Gibson x7136 jgibson@nada.org Director, Sales, Customer Service, Insurance Dan Ruddy x4707 druddy@nada.org About NADA Used Car Guide Media Jeff Beddow jbeddow@nada.org Over a 77-year history, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of market-reflective vehicle valuation products, services and information to businesses throughout the U.S. and worldwide. NADA s editorial team collects and analyzes over one million combined wholesale and retail automotive-related transaction prices per month. Its guidebooks, auction data, analysis, and data solutions offer automotive, financial, insurance, and government professionals the timely information and reliable solutions they need to make better business decisions. Visit Disclaimer: NADA Used Car Guide makes no representations about future performance or results based on the data and the contents available in this report ("Guidelines"). Guidelines is provided for informational purposes only and is provided AS IS without warranty or guarantee of any kind. By accessing Guidelines via or the NADA website, you agree not to reprint, reproduce, or distribute Guidelines without the express written permission of NADA Used Car Guide. 14