San Diego Auto Outlook

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "San Diego Auto Outlook"

Kory Parsons
5 years ago
Views:

Covering Second Quarter 2018 Volume 18, Number 3 Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market FORECAST County New Vehicle Market Remains Strong in First Half of 2018 Below is

(Note: June figures were estimated). 2. As shown on the graph below, the market has flattened during the past several years, but sales have remained at elevated levels. 3.

1 Covering Second Quarter 2018 Volume 18, Number 3 Comprehensive information on the San Diego County new vehicle market FORECAST County New Vehicle Market Remains Strong in First Half of 2018 Below is a list of 10 key trends and developments in the San Diego County new vehicle market: 1. County new retail registrations declined 3.7% in the first half of this year versus a year earlier. The U.S. market was up by less than 1%. (Note: June figures were estimated). 2. As shown on the graph below, the market has flattened during the past several years, but sales have remained at elevated levels. 3. Auto Outlook s annual forecast for 2018 new retail light vehicle registrations: 152,500 units, down slightly from Light truck market share increased from 53.5% during the first six months of 2017 to 57.2% this year. 5. Registrations for Domestic brands were up 0.2% so far this year, better than the 3.7% overall industry decrease. 6. Alternative powertrain (hybrid and electric vehicle) market share was 11.4% thru May of this year, up from last year. 7. Three biggest segments in the county are Compact Car, Compact SUV, and Mid Size SUV. 8. Brands with the largest percentage increases in registrations during the first six months of this year (among top 30 brands): Alfa Romeo, Tesla, Volvo, Mitsubishi, and Land Rover. 9. County market share leaders in the first half of 2018 were Toyota, Honda, Ford, Chevrolet, and Nissan. 10. Top ten selling vehicles in county market: Honda Civic, Toyota Tacoma, Ford F-Series, Toyota Camry, Toyota RAV4, Honda CR-V, Tesla Model 3, Honda Accord, Toyota Corolla, and Nissan Rogue. Market Outlook for next two years: New vehicle sales should remain above average; uncertainties increasing Strong economic growth, rising employment, and increasing incomes have helped keep new vehicle sales at elevated levels. Some potential storm clouds are on the horizon, however. Negative fallout from tariffs, rising interest rates, and inflationary pressures are concerns for the market. Annual Trend in County Market Market Summary New light vehicle registrations 180, , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Forecast YTD '17 YTD '18 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru June thru June '17 to '18 YTD '18 TOTAL 77,384 74, % Car 36,007 31, % 42.8% Light Truck 41,377 42, % 57.2% Domestic 20,790 20, % 28.0% European 11,444 10, % 14.7% Japanese 38,982 36, % 49.3% Korean 6,168 5, % 8.0% Historical Data The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the county from 2012 thru 2017 and Auto Outlook s projection for Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, FCA (excluding Alfa and FIAT), and Tesla. Historical figures were revised by IHS Markit and will differ slightly from those shown in previous releases. *Figures for June 18 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

Page 2 MARKET TRACKER: QUARTERLY RESULTS County Registrations Approached 39,000 Units in 2Q 18 QUARTERLY TREND Percent Change in County and U.S. New Vehicle Market QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE 2Q 2018 Registrations Versus Average for Previous Five Years % change versus year earlier 10.

2 Page 2 MARKET TRACKER: QUARTERLY RESULTS County Registrations Approached 39,000 Units in 2Q 18 QUARTERLY TREND Percent Change in County and U.S. New Vehicle Market QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE 2Q 2018 Registrations Versus Average for Previous Five Years % change versus year earlier 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% -2.5% -5.0% The county market declined slightly in 2Q 18. 2Q '18 County registrations exceeded the average for the previous five years in the Second Quarter of this year. 38, % -10.0% Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18* County -4.6% -4.2% -6.8% -0.7% U.S. -2.9% 0.9% -1.4% 2.1% 2Q avg. ('13 to '17) 38, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Quarterly new retail light vehicle registrations * Figures for the Second Quarter of 2018 were estimated by Auto Outlook based on data for April and May. * Figures for 2Q 2018 were estimated by Auto Outlook based on data for April and May. MARKET TRACKER: COUNTY MARKET VERSUS U.S. Car Share in County Exceeds U.S. Percent change in registrations YTD '18 thru June* vs. YTD '17 Passenger car market share YTD '18 thru June* Domestic brand market share YTD '18 thru June* County Market U.S. Market -3.7% 0.4% 42.8% 31.9% 28.0% 42.0% Top 10 brands and market share YTD '18 thru June* First Toyota 17.4% Toyota 13.2% Second Honda 12.5% Ford 11.8% Third Ford 9.9% Chevrolet 11.3% Fourth Chevrolet 6.3% Honda 10.2% Fifth Nissan 6.2% Nissan 6.5% Sixth Subaru 4.5% Jeep 6.1% Seventh Kia 4.4% Subaru 4.4% Eighth Jeep 3.7% Hyundai 3.7% Ninth Hyundai 3.5% Kia 3.5% Tenth Mazda 3.4% GMC 3.3% *June 2018 figures estimated by Auto Outlook Source: IHS Markit San Diego Auto Outlook Covering Second Quarter 2018 Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA Phone: jfoltz@autooutlook.com Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz Reproduction, including photocopying of this publication in whole or in part, is prohibited without the express permission of Auto Outlook, Inc. Any material quoted must be attributed to, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the New Car Dealers Association San Diego County, and must also include the statement: Data Unforeseen events may affect the forecast projections. Consequently, Auto Outlook is not responsible for management decisions based on the content of Copyright Auto Outlook, Inc., July 2018

Covering Second Quarter 2018 Page 3 MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES Electric Vehicle Market Share is 4.1% So Far This Year Market Share 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.

3 Covering Second Quarter 2018 Page 3 MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES Electric Vehicle Market Share is 4.1% So Far This Year Market Share 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Q3 15 Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share (includes hybrid and electric vehicles) Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Hybrid Plug In Hybrid Electric Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18* The graph above shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the county. *Second Quarter 2018 includes April and May. Hybrid/electric vehicle market share in Q2 18: 13.4% New Retail Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Registrations Top 10 Selling Models in County - YTD '18 thru May Rank Model Regs. 1 Tesla Model Toyota Prius Kia Niro Ford Fusion Hyundai Ioniq Tesla Model S Toyota RAV Toyota Camry Chevrolet Bolt Chevrolet Volt 202 MARKET TRACKER: SEGMENT SHARES Non Luxury SUV Market Share Increases to 32% Segment Market Shares in County YTD 2017 thru May Segment Market Shares in County YTD 2018 thru May Luxury SUVs, 9% Luxury SUVs, 10% Non Luxury Md Size & Large Cars, 11% Non Luxury SUVs, 29% Non Luxury Md Size & Large Cars, 10% Non Luxury SUVs, 32% Luxury & Sports Cars, 9% Non Luxury SUV Market Share, YTD 17: 29% Luxury & Sports Cars, 10% Non Luxury SUV Market Share, YTD 18: 32% Pickups and Vans, 15% Small Cars, 27% Pickups and Vans, 15% Small Cars, 23% The two graphs above show market shares for primary segments during the first five months of 2017 and 2018.

4 Page 4 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART ONE Tesla Had Largest Gain So Far This Year Among Top 20 Brands The graph below provides review of brand sales performance in the county market. For the top 20 selling brands, it shows the percent change in new retail light vehicle registrations during the first six months of this year versus the same period a year earlier, and the change from the First Quarter of 2018 to the Second Quarter. Brands are shown from top to bottom based on the year-to-date percent change. Up by more than 3% for YTD 18 vs. YTD 17: Tesla Land Rover Subaru BMW Up by more than 22% in 2Q 18 vs. 1Q 18: Tesla Hyundai Mercedes Jeep Percent Change in County New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations (Top 20 Selling Brands) YTD 2018 thru June* vs. YTD 2017, and Second Quarter 2018* vs. First Quarter 2018 Tesla Land Rover Subaru 4.8% 7.0% 1.0% 13.1% BMW Kia -6.5% 3.4% 2.0% 2.9% Ram 1.6% 18.0% Jeep -1.3% 22.7% Honda -2.0% 6.4% Mazda -2.9% 6.5% GMC -15.9% -3.1% Chevrolet Toyota Audi -3.4% -3.9% -4.4% 6.4% 5.1% 8.9% YTD 2018 vs. YTD nd Qtr vs. 1st Qtr Volkswagen -6.7% -1.0% Ford -8.3% 9.4% Lexus -8.7% 6.1% Hyundai -9.4% 32.9% Mercedes -11.8% 32.6% Acura -11.9% 5.6% Nissan -21.4% -5.6% -75.0% -50.0% -25.0% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% 75.0% *Figures for June, 2018 were estimated.

5 Covering Second Quarter 2018 Page 5 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART TWO Toyota and Honda Are Strong Performers in County Market The graph below provides an indicator of brands that are popular in San Diego County (relative to the National standard), and those that are not. Here s how it works: For the top 30 selling brands, each brand s share of the U.S. market is multiplied by retail registrations in the county during the first six months of This yields a target for the county market. Target registrations are subtracted from actual registrations to derive the measurement of sales performance. Brands at the top of the graph (i.e., Toyota, Honda, Tesla, Mazda, and BMW) are relatively strong sellers in the county, with actual registrations exceeding calculated targets by large margins. For instance, Toyota registrations exceeded the target by 3,135 units. San Diego County Retail Market Performance based on registrations for YTD 2018 thru June* Actual registrations minus target (county industry registrations times U.S. market share) TOP FIVE PERFORMING BRANDS Toyota 2. Honda 3. Tesla 4. Mazda 5. BMW ,000-2, ,500 5, Toyota Honda Tesla Mazda BMW Kia Mercedes Lexus Audi Volkswagen Land Rover Porsche MINI Alfa Romeo Volvo Subaru Infiniti Acura Mitsubishi Hyundai Lincoln Nissan Cadillac Chrysler Dodge Ram Ford GMC Jeep Chevrolet Actual registrations minus target (county industry registrations times U.S. market share) *Figures for June, 2018 were estimated. Source for registration data: IHS Markit.

graph below shows the percent change in new retail car

months of 2018 versus the same period in 2015 for the

Brands are positioned from top to bottom based on the

Three Year Percent Change in New Retail Car and Light

thru May versus YTD 2015 Volkswagen -53% Hyundai 94%

37% -5% Chevrolet 36% -8% BMW 31% -27% Lexus VW light

25% -61% Honda 24% 0% Mercedes 22% -36% Toyota 22%

Ford 13% -37% 7% Jeep -1% GMC Nissan -11% -47% Acura

-21% -32% -50% -25% 0% Passenger car registrations

6 Page 6 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART THREE Light Truck Registrations Increase for 16 of Top 20 Brands The graph below shows the percent change in new retail car and light truck registrations during the first five months of 2018 versus the same period in 2015 for the top 20 selling brands in the county. Brands are positioned from top to bottom based on the change in truck registrations. Three Year Percent Change in New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations for Top 20 Selling Brands YTD 2018 thru May versus YTD 2015 Volkswagen -53% Hyundai 94% -29% Mazda 70% -49% Kia 66% -17% Audi 54% -10% Subaru 37% -5% Chevrolet 36% -8% BMW 31% -27% Lexus VW light truck registrations increased by 428%. 25% -61% Honda 24% 0% Mercedes 22% -36% Toyota 22% -32% Land Rover 21% Ram 21% % change for light trucks Ford 13% -37% 7% Jeep -1% GMC Nissan -11% -47% Acura -35% -54% Dodge -125% % change for cars -100% -75% -21% -32% -50% -25% 0% Passenger car registrations declined for 15 of the 16 brands that sell cars 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% Light truck registrations increased for 16 of the top 20 brands

Covering Second Quarter 2018 Page 7 MODEL RANKINGS Honda Civic is Best Selling Model in County Market The table below shows the top five selling models during the first five months of 2018 in 20

7 Covering Second Quarter 2018 Page 7 MODEL RANKINGS Honda Civic is Best Selling Model in County Market The table below shows the top five selling models during the first five months of 2018 in 20 segments. In addition to unit registrations, it also shows each model s market share in its respective segment. BEST SELLERS IN PRIMARY SEGMENTS Compact Car: Honda Civic Full Size Pickup: Ford F-Series Mid Size Car: Toyota Camry Compact SUV: Toyota RAV4 Near Luxury Car: Tesla Model 3 Mid Size SUV: Toyota Highlander Luxury Car: BMW 5-Series Luxury Mid Size SUV: Lexus RX Top Selling Models in Each Segment - New Light Vehicle Registrations (YTD '18 thru May) Cars Subcompact Compact Sports/Pony Cars Mid Size Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Kia Soul Honda Civic Ford Mustang Toyota Camry Honda Fit Toyota Corolla Dodge Challenger Honda Accord Toyota IM Nissan Sentra Chevrolet Camaro Ford Fusion Chevrolet Bolt Toyota Prius Hyundai Veloster Kia Optima Ford Fiesta Hyundai Elantra Mazda MX Nissan Altima Large Entry Luxury Near Luxury Luxury and High End Sports Cars Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Dodge Charger Audi A Tesla Model BMW 5-Series Toyota Avalon BMW I BMW 3-Series Tesla Model S Nissan Maxima Mercedes CLA-Class Mercedes C-Class Mercedes E-Class Chrysler BMW 2-Series Lexus IS Mercedes S-Class Chevrolet Impala Acura ILX BMW 4-Series Porsche Light Trucks Compact/Mid Size Pickup Full Size Pickup Mini Van Large Van Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Toyota Tacoma Ford F Series Honda Odyssey Ford Transit Connect Van Chevrolet Colorado Chevrolet Silverado Chrysler Pacifica Mercedes Sprinter Nissan Frontier /Xe Ram Pickup Toyota Sienna Ram Promaster GMC Canyon Toyota Tundra Kia Sedona Chevrolet Express Honda Ridgeline GMC Sierra Dodge Caravan Nissan NV Subcompact SUV Compact SUV Mid Size SUV Large SUV Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Honda HR-V Toyota RAV Toyota Highlander Chevrolet Tahoe Kia Niro Honda CR-V Subaru Outback GMC Yukon Toyota C-HR Nissan Rogue Ford Explorer Ford Flex Chevrolet Trax Mazda CX Toyota 4 Runner Ford Expedition Jeep Renegade Subaru Crosstrek Jeep Grand Cherokee Chevrolet Suburban Luxury Subcompact SUV Luxury Compact SUV Luxury Mid Size SUV Luxury Large SUV Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share BMW X Lexus NX Lexus RX Land Rover Range Rover Audi Q Mercedes GLC-Class BMW X Cadillac Escalade Mercedes GLA-Class Audi Q Acura MDX Mercedes GLS-Class Infiniti QX BMW X Volvo XC Lincoln Navigator BMW X Acura RDX Tesla Model X Infiniti QX

8 Page 8 Brand Registrations Report San Diego County New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations Second Quarter* Year to date thru June* Registrations Market Share (%) Registrations Market Share (%) 2Q '17 2Q '18 % change 2Q '17 2Q '18 Change YTD '17 YTD '18 % change YTD '17 YTD '18 Change TOTAL 39,028 38, ,384 74, Cars 17,992 16, ,007 31, Light Trucks 21,036 22, ,377 42, Domestic Brands 10,193 11, ,790 20, European Brands 5,702 5, ,444 10, Japanese Brands 19,924 18, ,982 36, Korean Brands 3,209 3, ,168 5, Acura Alfa Romeo Audi ,491 1, BMW 1,159 1, ,398 2, Buick Cadillac Chevrolet 2,296 2, ,839 4, Chrysler Dodge FIAT Ford 4,027 3, ,018 7, Genesis GMC Honda 4,835 4, ,482 9, Hyundai 1,541 1, ,863 2, Infiniti Jaguar Jeep 1,356 1, ,770 2, Kia 1,625 1, ,204 3, Land Rover Lexus 1,118 1, ,252 2, Lincoln Maserati Mazda 1,377 1, ,634 2, Mercedes 1,280 1, ,475 2, MINI Mitsubishi Nissan 2,909 2, ,882 4, Other Porsche Ram ,111 1, Subaru 1,533 1, ,121 3, Tesla 323 1, , Toyota 7,057 6, ,514 12, Volkswagen 1,056 1, ,155 2, Volvo *June 2018 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook. The table above shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in San Diego County. Figures are shown for the Second Quarters of 2017 and 2018, and year-to-date totals. The top ten ranked brands in each category are shaded yellow.

Covering Second Quarter 2018 Page 9 Key Trends in San Diego County Used Vehicle Market Market improves in 2018 Used vehicle registrations in San Diego County improved 1.

9 Covering Second Quarter 2018 Page 9 Key Trends in San Diego County Used Vehicle Market Market improves in 2018 Used vehicle registrations in San Diego County improved 1.9% during the first five months of 2018 versus year earlier. Used vehicle market out-performs new As shown on the graph below, the gap between the size of the new and used vehicle markets (vehicles six year old or newer) has narrowed during the past year. Registrations for six year old or newer used vehicles increased 4.7% in the first five months of 18 versus a year earlier, while the new vehicle market declined. Civic and Camry are top sellers Civic and Camry were best sellers in the six year old or newer market, while Nissan Rogue, Chevrolet Cruze, Toyota Tacoma, and Nissan Sentra had large percentage increases. Mercedes, Mazda, Kia, and VW post gains Used registrations were up by more than 6% for each of the five brands. 50.0% 25.0% 0.0% -25.0% San Diego County Retail Used Light Vehicle Registrations YTD thru May Registrations % Change Market Share YTD '17 YTD '18 '17 TO '18 YTD '17 YTD '18 TOTAL 134, , % Cars 79,111 79, % 58.7% 57.9% Light Trucks 55,721 57, % 41.3% 42.1% Detroit Three 46,191 45, % 34.3% 33.2% European 20,859 22, % 15.5% 16.0% Japanese 60,193 61, % 44.6% 45.0% Korean 7,589 7, % 5.6% 5.8% Percent Change in County Retail Used Registrations by Vehicle Age, YTD 18 thru May vs. YTD % 16.3% 17.2% -2.8% 18.3% -5.3% -7.1% 7 yrs. old 6 yrs. old 5 yrs. old 4 yrs. old 3 yrs. old 2 yrs. old 1 yr. or newer San Diego County New and Used Retail Registrations - Three Month Moving Average (used only includes vehicles 6 years old or newer) Used New

10 Page 10 TOP SELLING MODELS Civic and Camry are Top Sellers in Used Market Registrations (YTD 18 thru May) and Percent Change (YTD 18 thru May vs. year earlier) Top 20 Selling Models (6 years old or newer) Honda Civic Toyota Camry Toyota Corolla Nissan Sentra Toyota Prius Nissan Altima Volkswagen Jetta Honda Accord Ford F Series Nissan Versa Nissan Rogue BMW 3-Series Ford Focus Toyota Tacoma Kia Optima Ford Fusion Ram Hyundai Sonata Hyundai Elantra Chevrolet Cruze -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% Unit regs. % change in regs. Percent change in registrations (shown as thin darker blue bars) Unit registrations (shown as wide light blue bars) The wide light blue bars on the graph show unit registrations (bottom axis), and the thin dark blue bars show the percent change (top axis). USED VEHICLE BRAND SCOREBOARD Mercedes Posts Largest Increase in Used Registrations 15.0% % Change in Used Registrations (top 15 brands) - YTD 18 thru May vs. YTD % 5.0% 9.4% 7.7% 6.9% 6.2% 5.4% 4.2% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 1.9% 0.0% -5.0% -0.3% -0.4% -0.5% -2.7% -3.9% -10.0% -15.0%

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18* Years Historical data source: IHS Markit

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18* Years Historical data source: IHS Markit Comprehensive information on the California vehicle market Volume 14, Number 3 Released August 2018 Covering Second Quarter 2018 TM Publication Sponsored By: New Vehicle Registrations in State Exceed 1