Monthly Mexico Meat Market Report

Transcription

1 Monthly Mexico Meat Market Report Supply and Price Situation for Domestic and Traded Beef June 19, 2017 Prepared for Meat and Livestock Australia Steiner Consul ng Group, Manchester, NH, U.S.A

2 table of contents market update trade summary - total mexico beef imports beef imports from australia total mexico beef exports mexican beef trade deficit imports of mexican feeder cattle 15 mexican economy - exchange rates economic indicators inflation.. 20 pricing summary - feeder steer prices - export to u.s mexican beef trim and cut prices supply summary - beef supply, exports and use cattle inventory.. 32

3 Page 3 Market Update Produc on Update Mexico beef produc on in May was es mated by SIAP at 154,847 MT (carcass weight basis), 1.6% higher than the previous month and also 1.8% higher than a year ago. While 32 different states contribute to na onal produc on, the year over year increase in produc on can be a ributed to a number of key regions (see chart below). The two biggest beef producing states in Mexico are Jalisco and Veracruz, accoun ng for about a quarter of total output. Beef produc on in Jalisco in May was 17,783 MT, 3% higher than the previous year. The biggest contributor to the year/year increase in produc on was Durango. Total output in this state in May was 8,126 MT, 23% higher than a year ago. In the first five months of the year beef produc on in Mexico is up 18,215 MT (+2.4%). Increases in produc on in Jalisco, Durango and San Luis Potosi accounted for the bulk of this increase. Smaller states con nue to report lower produc on compared to a year ago. The biggest year over year decline is in the state of Chiapas (in the border with Guatemala), down almost 10% compared metricton to a year ago. CONTRIBUTION TO YEAR/YEAR CHANGE IN MEXICO BEEF PRODUCTION METRIC TON. May 2017 VS. May 2016 Total DURANGO SAN LUIS POTOSÍ SINALOA JALISCO CHIHUAHUA BAJA CALIFORNIA MICHOACÁN OAXACA QUINTANA ROO NUEVO LEÓN CAMPECHE TABASCO VERACRUZ YUCATÁN PUEBLA NAYARIT BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR GUERRERO HIDALGO DISTRITO FEDERAL COLIMA MORELOS TAMAULIPAS GUANAJUATO TLAXCALA MÉXICO QUERÉTARO SONORA ZACATECAS AGUASCALIENTES COAHUILA CHIAPAS 1,500 1, ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

4 Page 4 Trade Summary Both beef imports and exports were lower in April. Imports from the US account for the bulk of Mexican beef import and they are for the most part fresh/chilled rather than frozen. Imports of US fresh beef for the month were 7,697 MT, down 17% from a year ago. Imports of frozen beef from the US were just 720 MT, down 15%. There is a li le more beef coming from Nicaragua and Uruguay but overall volume s ll remains quite small despite a empts from Mexican officials to diversify the number of countries that currently ship into Mexico. Imports of fresh/chilled beef from Nicaragua in April were 715 MT, 26% higher than a year ago. In the first four months of the year Mexican importers had sourced 2,962 MT from Nicaragua, 40% more than the same period a year ago. Frozen beef imports from Australia were minimal last year. In the first four months of this year imports of Australian beef were a total 181 MT and imports of New Zealand beef were 71 MT. Total imports of fresh and frozen beef in April were 10,649 MT, 11% less than a year ago. Year to date imports are s ll up 9%, however, thanks to the higher volume that arrived in the first three months of the year. The volume of Mexican beef exported in April also declined but this did not change the trend in export volumes so far this year. Beef exports to the US in April were 12,894 MT, 6% less than a year ago. Year to date exports to the US s ll are up 7% from the same period a year ago. Exports to Japan in April were 771 MT, 10% less than a year ago. For the year exports to Japan were 2,642 MT, 10% higher than a year ago. Hong Kong also has emerged as an important des na on for Mexican beef. Exports to this market in the first four months of the year were 1,429 MT, 529 MT (+59%) higher than a year ago.

5 June 2017 Mexico Monthly Meat Market Report Page 5 Trade Summary

6 Page YTD 2017 YTD Jan Apr Jan Apr Vol. Ch. % Ch. Apr 16 Apr 17 Vol. Ch. % Ch. Fresh/Chill MT MT MT MT MT MT MT MT MT United States 118,963 95,607 99,150 28,553 30,389 1,836 6% 9,251 7,697 (1,554) 17% Canada 18,360 14,891 13,526 3,708 4, % 1,201 1, % Australia N/A N/A New Zealand N/A N/A Honduras N/A N/A Costa Rica N/A N/A Uruguay % % Chile N/A N/A Nicaragua 172 4,093 6,657 2,117 2, % % Panama N/A N/A Other (0) 35% 1 0 (1) 100% Total 137, , ,660 34,457 37,885 3,428 10% 11,041 9,730 (1,311) 12% Frozen United States 4,569 5,089 10,151 2,998 3, % (131) 15% Canada (159) 56% (47) 72% Australia 1, % N/A New Zealand (97) 58% (0) 1% Honduras N/A N/A Costa Rica N/A N/A Uruguay 84 N/A N/A Chile 9 13 N/A N/A Nicaragua % N/A Panama N/A N/A Other N/A 0 0 N/A Total 6,803 7,839 11,751 3,584 3, % (45) 5% Fresh/Chilled & Frozen Mexico Beef Imports Shipped Wt. Basis (Metric Ton), Annual and Monthly United States 123, , ,301 31,551 33,644 2,093 7% 10,102 8,417 (1,685) 17% Canada 18,668 15,452 14,161 3,992 4, % 1,266 1, % Australia 1, % N/A New Zealand (97) 58% (0) 1% Honduras N/A N/A Costa Rica N/A N/A Uruguay % % Chile 9 13 N/A N/A Nicaragua 304 5,040 7,115 2,240 3, % % Panama N/A N/A Other N/A 1 0 (1) 100% Total 144, , ,411 38,041 41,647 3,606 9% 12,005 10,649 (1,356) 11%

7 June 2017 Mexico Monthly Meat Market Report Page 7 MT 30,000 Mexico Beef Imports from US and Canada Shipped Wt. Basis (MT), Monthly 2001 to ,000 20,000 15,000 USA 10,000 5,000 Canada

8 Page 8 MT, swt 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Mexican Fresh, Chilled & Frozen Beef Imports Year-to-Date 2017 vs YTD 2017 YTD 7% 9% 10,000 5,000-12% % United States Canada Australia New Zealand Total 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mexican Beef Imports by Country Share of Total Imports (% as April 2017) Canada United States Canada 11.9% Australia 0.9% Other 8.1% United States 79.0%

9 Page 9 Share of Mexican Beef Imports 2016 vs. 2017, Year-to-Date Fresh/Chilled Imports YTD, 2016 Fresh/Chilled Imports YTD, 2017 United States 83% 34,4 MT Canada 11% Nicaragua 6% United States 80% 37,8 MT Canada 12% Nicaragua 8% Frozen Imports YTD, 2016 Frozen Imports YTD, 2017 United 3,58 States 84% MT Canada 8% New Zealand 5% Nicaragua 3% Other shares Other of frozen shares include of frozen Chile includes and Nicaragua Chile and and Nicaragua make up 3.4% makes up 3.4% Fresh vs Frozen Beef Imports, 2016 YTD 3,76 United States MT 87% Canada 3% Other shares of frozen include Australia and Chile and makes up 4.8% New Nicaragua Zealand 3% 2% Fresh vs Frozen Beef Imports, 2017 YTD Fresh/Chill 90.6% 38,0 MT Frozen 9.4% Fresh/Chill 91.0% 41,6 MT Frozen 9.0%

10 Page 10 MT, swt 160 Australian Beef Exports to Mexico Metric Tons, Shipped Weight Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Average Year Avg 2016 vs vs 5 Yr Avg Jan Feb Ma r N/A 3% Apr Ma y % 70% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Australian Government, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry

11 Page YTD 2017 YTD Jan Apr Jan Apr Vol. Ch. % Ch. Apr 16 Apr 17 Vol. Ch. % Ch. Fresh/Chill MT MT MT MT MT MT MT MT MT United States 106, , ,018 49,518 53,383 3,865 8% 12,504 11,780 (724) 6% Japan 2,918 2,767 2, % (30) 19% South Korea N/A N/A Puerto Rico N/A N/A Costa Rica N/A N/A Panama N/A N/A Angola N/A N/A Russia N/A N/A Hong Kong 16 N/A N/A Vietnam N/A N/A Other , % (63) 47% Total 110, , ,746 50,430 54,459 4,029 8% 12,796 11,979 (817) 6% Frozen United States 8,066 12,080 14,611 4,951 5, % 1,461 1,114 (347) 24% Japan 9,896 7,451 5,086 1,868 2, % (58) 8% South Korea , (79) 22% (55) 82% Puerto Rico N/A N/A Costa Rica (299) N/A 57 (57) N/A Panama N/A N/A Angola 137 N/A N/A Russia N/A N/A Hong Kong 7,344 3,711 3, , % % Vietnam N/A N/A Other % % Total 26,986 24,361 26,243 8,493 9, % 2,660 2,312 (348) 13% Fresh/Chilled & Frozen Mexico Beef Exports Shipped Wt. Basis (Metric Ton), Annual and Monthly United States 114, , ,629 54,469 58,412 3,943 7% 13,965 12,894 (1,071) 8% Japan 12,814 10,218 7,396 2,412 2, % (88) 10% South Korea , (79) 22% (55) 82% Puerto Rico N/A N/A Costa Rica (299) N/A 57 (57) N/A Panama N/A N/A Angola 137 N/A N/A Russia N/A N/A Hong Kong 7,344 3,727 3, , % % Vietnam N/A N/A Other 1,108 1,210 2, % (3) 2% Total 137, , ,989 58,923 63,764 4,841 8% 15,457 14,291 (1,166) 8%

12 Page 12 MT, swt 70,000 60,000 7% Mexican Fresh, Chilled & Frozen Beef Exports Year-to-Date, 2017 vs YTD 2017 YTD 8% 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000-10% -22% N/A United States Japan South Korea Russia Total Mexican Beef Exports by Country Share of Total Imports (% as of April 2017) 100% 90% 80% 70% Japan South Korea Russia S. Korea 0.1% Japan 5.4% Other 4.3% 60% Other 50% 40% United States 90.2% 30% 20% United States 10% 0%

13 Page 13 Shares of Mexican Beef Exports 2016 vs. 2017, Year-to-Date Fresh/Chilled Exports YTD, 2016 Fresh/Chilled Exports YTD, 2017 United States 98% United States 98% Frozen Exports YTD, 2016 Japan 1% Frozen Exports YTD, 2017 Other 1% Japan 1% United States 60% Japan 20% Hong Kong 9% United States 56% Japan 20% South Korea 4% Hong Kong 14% Other shares of frozen includes Panama, South Korea, and Vietnam and makes up 6.7% Fresh vs Frozen Beef Exports, 2016 YTD Other shares of frozen include Costa Rica, Panama and other and make up 6.5% Fresh vs Frozen Beef Exports, 2017 YTD Fresh/Chill 87% Fresh/Chill 86% Frozen 13% Frozen 14%

14 Page 14 MT 10,000 Mexico Beef Trade Deficit/Surplus with the US Net Beef Trade, Exports minus Imports (MT) 5,000 - (5,000) (10,000) (15,000) (20,000) (25,000) (30,000)

15 Page 15 Imports Of Mexican Feeder Cattle As % Of US Cattle Placements US Monthly Imports, USDA Male Calves Female Calves Total Feeders...head.. US 5 State Placements Placements head.. Total Feeders as % US Total Placements Total Feeders as % 5 State Placements Jan 14 68,144 13,205 81,349 1, % 15% Feb 14 79,651 19,408 99,059 1, % 19% Mar 14 86,044 18, ,959 1, % 17% Apr 14 79,291 18,834 98,125 1, % 18% May 14 67,306 18,041 85,347 1, % 12% Jun 14 56,036 12,557 68,593 1, % 15% Jul 14 59,027 15,181 74,208 1, % 15% Aug 14 39,841 11,452 51,293 1, % 10% Sep 14 50,895 10,846 61,741 1, % 11% Oct 14 76,898 16,994 93,892 2, % 14% Nov ,274 32, ,087 1, % 26% Dec ,798 31, ,315 1, % 37% Jan 15 65,541 13,765 79,306 1, % 16% Feb 15 88,922 13, ,611 1, % 26% Mar ,368 15, ,482 1, % 22% Apr 15 82,353 11,856 94,209 1, % 19% May 15 95,388 13, ,075 1, % 18% Jun 15 93,814 12, ,479 1, % 22% Jul 15 81,528 9,368 90,896 1, % 19% Aug 15 60,653 6,670 67,323 1, % 14% Sep 15 73,111 6,038 79,149 1, % 14% Oct 15 91,742 12, ,160 2, % 18% Nov 15 82,519 11,841 94,360 1, % 22% Dec 15 93,412 8, ,027 1, % 24% Jan 16 48,256 4,225 52,481 1, % 11% Feb 16 77,032 6,592 83,624 1, % 17% Mar ,486 15, ,520 1, % 24% Apr ,279 12, ,437 1, % 20% May 16 57,200 4,724 61,924 1, % 9% Jun 16 56,736 4,288 61,024 1, % 12% Jul 16 37,400 4,255 41,655 1, % 9% Aug 16 42,237 3,225 45,462 1, % 9% Sep 16 39,260 3,854 43,114 1, % 9% Oct 16 48,678 3,456 52,134 2, % 9% Nov 16 99,722 13, ,952 1, % 22% Dec ,091 12, ,602 1, % 25% Jan 17 75,095 11,900 86,995 1, % 18% Feb ,700 16, ,042 1, % 27% Mar ,436 22, ,415 2, % 22% Apr 17 79,178 13,500 92,678 1, % 15% May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec states: California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma

16 Page 16 Imports Of Mexican Feeder Cattle As % of Southern Placements as % of Placements in 5 States (CA, AZ, NM, TX and OK) 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% as % of All US Placements 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

17 June 2017 Mexico Monthly Meat Market Report Page 17 Mexican Economy

18 Page % 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% -1.00% -1.50% -2.00% -2.50% -3.00% -3.50% Appreciation/Depreciation of Mexican Peso vs. US $ and Canadian $, % Ch Since Jan 2, 2009 MXN vs. CAD MXN vs. USD More imports Fewer exports Fewer imports More exports USD per 1 MXN US Dollar to 1 Mexican Peso 0.03 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 CND per 1 MXN Canadian Dollar to 1 Mexican Peso NZD per 1 MXN 0.11 New Zealand Dollar to 1 Mexican Peso Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 AUD per 1 MXN 0.12 Australian Dollar to 1 Mexican Peso RUB per 1 MXN 5.00 Russian Ruble to 1 Mexican Peso Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 KRW per 1 MXN 110 South Korean Won to 1 Mexican Peso JPY per 1 MXN 10 Japanese Yen to 1 Mexican Peso Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 5 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17

19 Page Real GDP, Annual Growth Annual % Ch Inflation, general Annual % Ch Inflation, food Annual % Ch Exchange Rate MXN per USD Unemployment Rate % Interest Rate, target % Consumer Confidence Index = Industrial Production Annual % Ch Sources: IMF, Bank of Mexico, OECD, Moody's/Economy.com 1. Moody's /Economy.com forecasts, latest update 3/17/2017 Economic Indicators: Mexico % Ch GDP Growth: Annual % Change Mexico, U.S. and Canada Comparison Fcst Mexico U.S. Canada

20 Page 20 Y/Y % Ch 7.0% Inflation in Mexico: CPI 2017, 2016 and 5 Yr Avg 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Yr Avg ( ) 1.0% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec May % May % 5-Yr Avg 3.49% Y/Y % Ch 8.0% Inflation in Mexico: Food CPI 2016, 2015 and 5 Yr Avg 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Yr Avg ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec May % May % 5-Yr Avg 5.45% Source: INEGI

21 Page Base 2011 Avg. = 100 Mexico Price Inflation in Main Protein Groups Reindexed with 2011 Avg. = 100 Beef Pork Chicken Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct Y/Y % Ch 25% Inflation in Mexico: Meat 2017, 2016 and 5 Yr Avg. Y/Y % Ch 25% Inflation in Mexico: Beef 2017, 2016 and 5 Yr Avg. 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% -5% -5% -10% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -10% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Yr Avg. ( ) Yr Avg ( ) Y/Y % Ch Inflation in Mexico: Pork 2017, 2016 and 5 Yr Avg. Y/Y % Ch Inflation in Mexico: Chicken 2017, 2016 and 5 Yr Avg. 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% -5% -5% -10% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -10% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Yr Avg ( ) Yr Avg ( ) Source: INEGI

22 June 2017 Mexico Monthly Meat Market Report Page 22 Pricing Summary

23 Page 23 Feeder Cattle Shipments: Mexico to United States Monthly Average Prices Feeder Steer Feeder Heifers lbs y/y% ch lbs y/y% ch lbs y/y% ch lbs y/y% ch US$/cwt US$/cwt US$/cwt US$/cwt Jan % % % % Feb % % % % Mar % % % % Apr % % % % May % % % % Jun % % % % Jul % % % % Aug % % % % Sep % % % % Oct % % % % Nov % % % % Dec % % % % % % % % Jan % % % % Feb % % % % Mar % % % % Apr % % % % May % % % % Jun % % % % Jul % % % % Aug % % % % Sep % % % % Oct % % % % Nov % % % % Dec % % % % % % % % Jan % % % % Feb % % % % Mar % % % % Apr % % % % May % % % % Jun % % % % Jul % % % % Aug % % % % Sep % % % % Oct % % % % Nov % % % % Dec % % % % % % % % Jan % % % % Feb % % % % Mar % % % % Apr % % % % May % % % % Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec YTD *Price uses Medium and Large 1& 2 Feeder Steers and Fed Heifers; shipments to New Mexico and Texas US$/cwt Feeder Steer ( lbs) Prices: Shipments from Mexico to US

24 Page 24 Mexican Beef Trim Prices vs. US Domestic and Imported Prices 80% Trim 90% Trim..Mexico....US..Mexico....US MX (Pesos/kg) US$/l Imported Imported USDA 1 MX (Pesos/kg) US$/lb USDA 1 b (YS) 2 (YS) 2 low high avg. Conv. US$/lb US$/lb low high avg. Conv. US$/lb US$/lb 2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Urner Barry % Boneless Beef, National Fresh; 2. YS Imported Aust/NZ Mixed Trimmings 80%, EC 7:45; 3. 90% Boneless Beef, National, Fresh; 4. YS Imported Aust/NZ Blend Cow 90% EC 7:45

25 Page 25 Mexican Beef Prices vs. US Market Prices Beef Carcass (100, 1) Bnls Ribeye, Lip-On (112A, 3) Shoulder Clod (114, 1)...Mexico.. US...Mexico.. US...Mexico.. US MX (Pesos/kg) US$/lb USDA 1 MX (Pesos/kg) US$/lb USDA 2 MX (Pesos/kg) US$/lb USDA 3 low high avg. Conv. US$/lb low high avg. Conv. US$/lb low high avg. Conv. US$/lb 2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Urner Barry. 1. Five Area Direct Average Dressed Steer; 2. Boner/Breaker 112A Rib, ribeye roll-lip-on, 8-dn lbs; 3. Choice Chuck Shoulder Clod

26 Page 26 Mexican Beef Prices vs. US Market Prices Chuck Roll, Neck Off (116A, 3) Chuck Tender (116B, 1) Chuck Short Rib (130, 1)...Mexico.. US...Mexico.. US...Mexico.. US MX (Pesos/kg) US$/lb USDA 1 MX (Pesos/kg) US$/lb USDA 2 MX (Pesos/kg) US$/lb USDA low high avg. Conv. US$/lb low high avg. Conv. US$/lb low high avg. Conv. US$/lb 2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Urner Barry. 1. Choice 116A 3 Chuck Roll 1x1 neck/off; 2. Choice 116B 1 Chuck Chuck tender

27 Page 27 Mexican Beef Prices vs. US Market Prices Knuckle, Pld (167A, 4) Top Round, Cap Off (169A, 3) Outside Round (171B, 3)...Mexico.. US...Mexico.. US...Mexico.. US MX (Pesos/kg) US$/lb USDA 1 MX (Pesos/kg) US$/lb YS 2 MX (Pesos/kg) US$/lb USDA 3 low high avg. Conv. US$/lb low high avg. Conv. US$/lb low high avg. Conv. US$/lb 2015 Jan ##### - ##### ##### ##### 3.17 Feb ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.85 Mar ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.84 Apr ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.57 May ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.62 Jun ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.81 Jul ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.73 Aug ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.69 Sep ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.56 Oct ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.36 Nov ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.27 Dec ##### - ##### ##### ##### Jan #N/A - #N/A #N/A #N/A 3.00 Feb ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.85 Mar ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.84 Apr ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.57 May ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.62 Jun ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.81 Jul ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.73 Aug ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.69 Sep ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.56 Oct ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.36 Nov ##### - ##### ##### ##### 2.27 Dec ##### - ##### ##### ##### Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Urner Barry. 1. Choice 167A 4 Round Knuckle Peeled; 2. YS 169A 5 Inside Round, Cap-Off Choice-(TL); 3. Choice 171B 3 Round outside round

28 Page 28 Mexican Beef Prices vs. US Market Prices Eye of Round (171C, 3) Tenderloin, Full, Defatted (189A, 4)...Mexico.. US...Mexico.. US MX (Pesos/kg) US$/lb USDA 1 MX (Pesos/kg) US$/lb YS 2 low high avg. Conv. US$/lb low high avg. Conv. US$/lb 2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Urner Barry. 1. Choice 171C 3 Round eye of round; 2. YS 189A 4 Loin, Tenderloin, PSMO, Defat Dn No-Roll-(LTL)

29 June 2017 Mexico Monthly Meat Market Report Page 29 Supply Summary

30 Page MT, Carcass Wt. Eq. 2,500 Mexico: Beef Supply, Exports and Domestic Use Exports 2,000 1,500 1,000 Total Domestic Consumption Total Supply Imports 1000 MT, Carcass Wt. Eq. 350 Mexico: Beef Exports (f) - USDA forecast

31 Page Yr Avg 2017 vs vs. 5 Yr Avg Jan 144, , , , , , ,188 2% 4% Feb 145, , , , , , ,450 4% 5% Mar 144, , , , , , ,490 3% 4% Apr 142, , , , , , ,367 2% 5% May 149, , , , , , ,654 2% 3% Jun 151, , , , , ,023 Jul 151, , , , , ,028 Aug 154, , , , , ,326 Sep 152, , , , , ,041 Oct 156, , , , , ,851 Nov 161, , , , , ,583 Dec 164, , , , , ,975 Year 1,819,827 1,808,284 1,827,322 1,850,133 1,879,318 1,836,977 Source: SAGARPA Carcass (MT) 180,000 Domestic Mexican Beef Supply Monthly Volume, Carcass (MT) Domestic Mexican Beef Supply Monthly Volume (MT), 2003 to , , , , , , , ,000

32 Page 32 Dairy Cow Inv. Mexican Cattle Inventory, Slaughter and Exports Beef Cow Inv. Calf Crop Total Cattle Inventory Cow Slaughter Calf Slaughter Total Cattle Slaughter Total Exports....Thousand Head ,338 9,108 7,195 29,200 1,285 1,225 5, ,370 9,340 7,360 29,900 1,435 1,035 5, ,460 9,470 7,490 30,410 1, , ,536 9,747 7,725 31,300 1,093 1,393 5, ,597 10,016 7,930 32,150 1,156 1,473 5, ,627 10,615 8,315 33,000 1,240 1,580 6, ,340 11,113 8,400 34,000 1,330 1,695 6, ,341 11,364 8,550 34,700 1,445 1,075 6, ,272 10,920 8,233 33,873 1,984 1,088 6, ,783 11,120 8,023 33,917 1,400 1,760 6, ,643 11,235 7,885 33,853 1,575 2,055 7, ,933 11,696 9,036 32,167 1,356 1,579 5,755 1, ,116 11,979 9,514 33,603 1,378 1,605 5,837 1, ,276 12,808 9,773 35,378 1,714 1,915 8, ,050 12,720 9,569 34,999 2,802 1,930 10, ,070 11,860 9,018 31,747 1,750 1,900 8,720 1, ,090 12,210 9,450 29,847 1,610 1,720 7,450 1, ,150 12,500 6,573 31,822 1,620 1,700 5, ,250 12,850 7,000 31,158 1,620 1,700 6,074 1, ,200 13,000 7,500 30,341 1,630 1,730 6,174 1, ,000 12,000 8,300 30,151 1,750 1,700 6,928 1, ,000 11,500 6,775 29,637 1,630 1,650 6, ,000 11,000 7,400 28,601 1,700 1,700 6, ,200 11,200 7,240 29,051 1,600 1,600 6, ,200 10,700 8,400 25,425 1, ,975 1, ,200 10,800 8,460 25,220 1, ,925 1, ,350 10,800 8,600 25,328 1, ,075 1, ,450 10,000 8,200 25,349 1, , ,550 9,500 8,000 26,011 1, ,025 1, ,650 9,000 7,800 25,199 1, ,775 1, ,750 8,000 7,275 24,309 1, ,150 1, ,850 7,000 6,925 23,669 1, ,475 1, ,966 6,711 6,732 23,316 1, ,690 1, ,060 6,810 6,754 22,850 1, , ,157 6,909 6,875 22,666 1, , ,175 6,960 7,000 22,192 1, ,050 1, ,185 7,000 6,900 21,456 1, ,347 1, ,200 6,900 6,800 20,090 1, ,375 1, ,200 6,750 6,700 18,521 1, ,200 1, ,215 6,700 6,750 17,760 1, ,000 1, ,250 6,700 6,850 17,120 1, ,975 1, F 3,275 6,800 7,100 16,615 1, ,955 1, F 3,350 7,000 7,400 16,490 1, ,010 1,175 Source: USDA

33 Page 33 Thous. Head Total Mexican Cattle Inventory 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15, , , ,490 10,000 Thous. Head 16,000 14,000 Mexican Beef Cow Inventory and Calf Crop Beef Cow Inv. Calf Crop 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Source: USDA