Martin Stopford President, Clarkson Research

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1 9//5 Current and past policies for expanding maintaining or reducing shipbuilding capacity: OECD Working Party No 6 9 th November 5 Martin Stopford President, Clarkson Research Martin Stopford, Clarkson Research wwww.maritimelectures.com Many issues few solutions. Shipbuilding & policy objectives. Cyclical challenges in shipbuilding. Regional development - driven by cycles. Domestic and export markets 5. A few other issues wwww.maritimelectures.com

2 //5 Item : Shipbuilding Policy Objectives Local government Shipyards Employees Equipment industry National government Many people, many misunderstandings Shipping investors Consumers Bankers 9-Nov-5 Lecture : Introduction to Maritime Transport billion tonnes of cargo in nearly half China 8 Billion tonnes of cargo China accounted for % of import growth since China 6. Martin Stopford, Clarkson Research

3 Million GRT //5 Item : Cyclical challenges in shipbuilding Freight Rate.Short Cycle (5- years) Shipbuilding cycles are going on at three different levels. Long cycles - years?. Seasonal cycle ( months) 6 Years 6 Years 6 Years Figure. Compiled by Martin Stopford from various sources Chart : Shipbuilding Cycles Period Rapid growth of sea trade driven forward by a series of cycles Period 9-9 Over capacity & trade slump triggered by 9s depression y = 88.5e.9x Period Shortages of yard capacity at start & post war trade boom Period Yard overcapacity and trade slump Period Trade growth & yard expansion. M Gt How did we manage this cycle? m GRT m GRT 9 6 m GT Minicycles wwww.maritimelectures.com

4 9//5 Chart : How Shipbuilders Saw the Market Million CGT ACTUAL DELIVERIES Note: This graph tracks how between 978 and 98 a group of international shipbuilding experts revised their forecast of future shipbuilding completions as the 98s recession developed How will output develop? June 978 forecast June 98 forecast April 98 forecast Actual world shipbuilding completions June 98 forecast Source: Comparison of forecasts of world shipbuilding completions from AWES publications wwww.maritimelectures.com Item : Regional development driven by cycles Each region had its turn at the top. This is hard for policy makers to manage Photo: ANDRONIKI CHRISTODOULOU 9-Nov-5 Lecture : Introduction to Maritime Transport 8

5 % total ships launched //5 Chart : Regional shipbuilding concentration 9- FIGURE Shipbuilding market shares Europe USA other countries Source; Lloyds Register of Shipping, Clarkson Research, Martin Stopford Korea Japan See: page 66 China CGT 5.9% GT 5.% CGT.8% GT 5% CGT 8.% GT.% GT.7% Maritime Lecture 5 The Economics of Shipbuilding & Scrapping wwww.maritimelectures.com 9 Chart 5: Regional shipbuilding market shares In China overtook S Korea to become No. shipbuilder Europe Launches % Japan launches% S Korea launches % P R China % Source; Lloyds Register of Shipping, Clarkson Research Maritime Lecture 5 The Economics of Shipbuilding & Scrapping 5

6 Korea price bn won (blue line) $ million piece panamax Jan- Jan-76 Jan- Jan-78 Feb- Jan-8 Mar- Jan-8 Apr- Jan-8 Apr- Jan-86 May- Jan-88 Jun- Jul- Jan-9 Aug- Jan-9 Aug- Jan-9 Sep- Jan '96 Oct- Jan-98 Nov- Jan- Dec- Jan ' Dec- Jan ' Jan- Jan '6 Feb- Jan '8 Mar- Apr- Jan ' Jan ' Jan ' Japan price bn yen(red line) 9//5 Chart 6: Shipbuilding price of Panamax bulker $ million 6 $ price Panamax bulk carrier 5 9-Nov-5 Lecture : Introduction to Maritime Transport Chart 7: Shipbuilding price of Panamax bulker in Yen & $ 6 5 Panamax price Bn Won Yen price Panamax Won price increased Yen price declined Nov-5 Lecture : Introduction to Maritime Transport 6

7 % fleet at January m dwt 9//5 Item : The shipping investors Shipbuilding is a very volatile international dollar based market. Subsidies, currency and credit risk are key instruments 9//5 Maritime Lecture 7 Financing Ships and Shipping Companies Chart 8: 7% of the fleet under a foreign flag, Foreign Flag Dwt world fleet National Flag dwt world fleet,, In 5. billion tonnes of ships operating under a foreign flag

8 % total fleet or launches % total fleet or launches //5 Chart 9: Regional shipping & shipbuilding market share - Europe For 6 Years from 9-6 Europe had 8% Market Share Europe: Fleet exports Europe: Shipbuilding Maritime Lecture 5 The Economics of Shipbuilding & Scrapping wwww.maritimelectures.com 5 Chart : Regional shipping & shipbuilding market share - Japan For 5 Years from Japan had -5% Market Share 6 Japan: Fleet Japan Shipbuilding 5 exports Maritime Lecture 5 The Economics of Shipbuilding & Scrapping wwww.maritimelectures.com 6 8

9 % total fleet or launches % total fleet or launches //5 Chart : Regional shipping & shipbuilding market share S Korea For 5 Years from 995 to S Korea had 5-% shipbuilding market share 5 S Korea: Fleet S Korea Shipbuilding exports Maritime Lecture 5 The Economics of Shipbuilding & Scrapping wwww.maritimelectures.com 7 Chart : Regional shipping & shipbuilding market share China For 5 Years from -5 China had 5-% Market Share 5 PR China: Fleet PR China Shipbuilding exports Maritime Lecture 5 The Economics of Shipbuilding & Scrapping wwww.maritimelectures.com 8 9

10 9//5 ITEM 5: A few other issues Product range change problematic (due to skill mix) Capacity adjustment (down) is complex for yards Financial performance hard to control in recessions Closing shipyards raises difficulties (subsidy cheaper?) Subsidy systems undermine management authority Capacity management difficulty measuring efficiency The case for local versus national subsidies 9-Nov-5 Lecture : Introduction to Maritime Transport 9 ITEM 6: Conclusions The economic forces behind the cycles are powerful and difficult for policymakers to manipulate. Monitoring is powerful Worker removing the supporting wooden blocks from under the ship ATTALIA that was ordered by the Greek shipping company N.J.Goulandris Maritime Inc, to prepare it for its launching and naming ceremony. Photo: ANDRONIKI CHRISTODOULOU Lecture : Introduction to Maritime Transport

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