Comparing consumer preferences for electrified vehicles in China and the U.S.

Transcription

1 Comparing consumer preferences for electrified vehicles in China and the U.S. John Paul Helveston 1, Erica Fuchs 1, Yimin Liu 3, Jeremy Michalek 1,2 1. Department of Engineering & Public Policy, CMU 2. Department of Mechanical Engineering, CMU 3. Ford Motor Company Department of Engineering and Public Policy

2 China Could Shape Direction of Future Vehicle Technologies 1 out of every 4 new cars in the world were made in China in 2011 (1). Rising vehicle production & demand in China could change competitiveness of emerging fuel-saving technologies world-wide. Firm (2) Buick Volkswagen Honda Hyundai Toyota Nissan PorOon of firm s sales in... China U.S. 77% 21% 21% 4% 20% 33% 11% 10% 11% 18% 16% 12% Chevrolet Ford 13% 6% 37% 39% 1). China AutomoOve Technology and Research Center (CATARC) 2). China AssociaOon of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) & LMC AutomoOve,

3 EVs - an opportunity to reduce harmful passenger car impacts Impact Oil ConsumpOon: Impacts of Passenger cars U.S. China U.S. & China Consume ~1/3 of Global Oil ConsumpGon Emissions: Security: Economic: Light- duty vehicles account for 45% of U.S. oil consumpoon (EIA). 20% of GHG, 40% of VOC, 77% of CO, 49% of NOx (EPA). Imports 40% from OPEC countries (EIA). Cost U.S. economy ~$500 billion in 2008 (Greene). Light- duty vehicles account for ~36% of Chinese oil consumpoon (ANL). 85% of CO, 45-60% of NOx (Gallagher). Imports 40% from Middle East, 16% from West Africa, 10% from former Soviet Union (Ma et al.). Benefits of EVs PHEVs could reduce life- cycle GHG emissions in U.S. by as much as 32%, depending on grid mix (Samaras). PHEVs are expected to use about 40-60% less petroleum than convenoonal vehicles (ANL 2010). PEVs transfer vehicle emissions to power plants, potenoally reducing exposure to paroculate mader in urban centers (Cherry et al.). 3

4 EVs shift cars from gas to electricity All Gas All Electric ConvenGonal Hybrid- Electric Plug- in Hybrid Electric BaMery Electric AbbreviaOon CV HEV PHEV BEV Power Convertor Engine Engine & Motor Engine & Motor Motor Badery Pack - - Small Medium Large Gasoline - - Electricity

5 Research Questions How do existing preferences shape adoption of electrified vehicles in America & China? o Under what conditions would mainstream adoption of electrified vehicles occur? o What are the implications of these preferences for energy security and emissions reduction? 5

6 Measuring Consumer Preferences How do you get data on vehicles that don t exist yet? Our Approach: Choice-Based Conjoint Surveys 6

7 Past Automotive Demand Modeling Paper Electrified Year Model Form Vehicles Conjoint Data years LocaGon Boyd & Mellman 1980 MNL, MXL USA Goldberg 1995 NL, MNL USA Berry, Levinsohn, & Pakes 1995 MNL, MXL USA McCarthy 1996 MNL USA Golob et al P x x 1994 USA Goldberg 1998 NL, MNL x 1993 USA Brownstone & Train 1999 MNL, MXL, P x x 1993 USA Brownstone, Bunch, & Train 2000 MNL, MXL x x 1993 USA McFadden & Train 2000 MXL x x 1993 USA Sudhir 2001 MXL USA Choo & Mokhtarian 2004 MNL x 1998 USA Berry, Levinsohn & Pakes 2004 MXL 1993 USA SanOni & Vyas 2005 MNL x x USA Train and Wilson 2007 MXL 2000 USA Dagsvik and Liu 2009 NL x 2001 Shanghai Axsen, Mountain, Jaccard 2009 MNL x x 2006 USA & Canada Axsen, Kurani x 2007 USA Ziegler 2012 P x x Germany This Study 2013 MXL x x 2012 USA & China MNL = MulOnomial Logit, NL = Nested Logit, MXL = Mixed Logit, P = Probit 7

8 Conjoint Design 8

9 China Fielding: Jul. 16 Aug. 16, 2012 On the ground Partnered with State Information Center to field on the ground in China Targeted 4 major cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, & Chengdu Tier 1 cities Largest car markets Not rural Gov t focus for EVs Geographically diverse Chengdu 741 Respondents 15 Choice QuesOons Each 11,115 Choice QuesOons Beijing Shenzhen Shanghai 9

10 U.S. Fielding: Sept & Feb & PiMsburgh Auto Show 283 Online Respondents 101 Auto Show Respondents 15 Choice QuesOons Each 5,760 Choice QuesOons Online car buyers identified through short screener survey, compensated $2.00. Auto show car buyers taken at random, compensated with ipod raffle. Full Sample Auto Show Sample Urban Suburban Rural 34.7% 29.6% 35.7% Urban 26.3% Suburban 41.1% Rural 32.6% 10

11 Weights added to match car-buying demographic Sample demographics compared to large new car buyer survey by Maritz (supplied by Ford) Demographic Variable Household Income ($1k) Age Number of Children Household Size Percent Female Percent Married n Our Survey USA Maritz Survey 58.0 (28.6) (86) 33.9 (12.7) 53.1 (12.6) 0.6 (1.1) 0.4 (0.5) 2.7 (1.3) 2.5 (1.2) 37.4% 39.30% 44.6% 73.50% ,903 Our Survey CHINA Maritz Survey 22.9 (14.0) 26.1 (18.2) 32.8 (9.7) 35.1 (7.9) 0.6 (0.6) 0.7 (0.6) 3.2 (1) 3.2 (1.0) 32.7% 27.30% 60.9% 85.60% ,469 11

12 Discrete Choice Models: Linking Attributes to Choice 12

13 Automotive Demand Modeling Random UOlity Model: EsGmated partworth uglity weight Observed amributes UGlity to person n from choosing alternagve j =U nj = β ' x nj +ε nj Unobservables Goal of inference: To understand the relagonship between product amributes and purchase proclivity 13

14 Use mixed logit model to link attributes to choice Logit Model Estimates average weights for entire population. P ni = eβ x ni j eβ x nj. Mixed Logit Model Estimates distribution of weights across population. P ni = ( e β x ni x j eβ nj ) φ(β b, W ) dβ, P ni β x ni = Probability of choosing an alternaove from the set of choices. = RelaOve weight of adribute. = Adribute of alternaove. *Berry, Levinsohn, & Pakes (1995) Brownstone & Train (1999) McFadden & Train (2000) 14

15 HEVs & PHEVs Preferred, U.S. More Opposed to BEVs WTP = β att β price Vehicle Technology HEV PHEV10 PHEV20 PHEV40 BEV75 BEV100 BEV150 Vehicle Technologies Baseline: CV U.S. preference for HEVs & PHEVs over CVs (Axsen & Kurani, 2009). PHEV AER BEV AER Increase badery size China U.S Willingness- to- Pay WTP ($1,000) ($1,000) U.S. consumers sensiove to limited electric range (Axsen & Kurani, 2012). Chinese more familiar with plug- in vehicles ( million e- bikes currently on the ground). Most Chinese are first- Ome car buyers. 15

16 WTP = Brand, Fuel Economy, & Acceleration Important β att β price Brand American Japanese Chinese SKorean China U.S. Vehicle Performance Brand Fast Charge Ability Reduce Op. Cost by 5 cents / mile Reduce 0-60 mph Accel. Time by 4 sec. Baseline: German Willingness- to- Pay WTP ($1,000) ($1,000) Performance China U.S WTP ($1,000) Willingness- to- Pay ($1,000) 16

17 Chinese consumers more willing to adopt BEVs 17

18 Under what conditions would the average car buyer be indifferent between a gas car and its plug-in counterpart? Greater barriers in U.S. for BEVs U.S. China Δ BEV Price - $15,000 - $800 Gas price $8.60 (now: $3.70) $5.00 (now: $4.40) Lower barriers in U.S. for PHEVs U.S. China Δ PHEV Price - $100 to $2,000 - $3,000 Gas price $2.10 to $3.80 (now: $3.70) $6.40 to $8.10 (now: $4.40) 18

19 Consumer Preferences May Match Societal Preferences U.S. and Chinese consumers prefer smaller badery PHEVs, which emit less than larger badery BEVs in both countries. Adapted from Samaras & Meisterling (2008), Environmental Science & Technology 19

20 Policy Implications Results suggest car buyers in the U.S. and China prefer smaller battery HEVs and PHEVs to larger battery BEVs. Preferences may align with social benefits: o USA: HEVs & PHEVs have more emission and oil displacement benefits on average than BEVs (Michalek et al., 2011). o China: HEVs & PHEVs emit less on average than BEVs. The interaction of subsidies & preferences: o USA: Subsidies sufficient for PHEVs, insufficient for BEVs. o China: Subsidies more sufficient for BEVs than PHEVs For widespread adoption, need PHEVs BEVs SubopGmal policy? U.S. China Δ PHEV Price - $100 to $2,000 - $3,000 Gas price $2.10 to $3.80 (now: $3.70) $6.40 to $8.10 (now: $4.40) U.S. China Δ BEV Price - $15,000 - $800 Gas price $8.60 (now: $3.70) $5.00 (now: $4.40) 20

21 Acknowledgements This study was funded by: The NaOonal Science FoundaOon. Ford Motor Company. Special thanks to: Elea Feit at the Wharton School of Business. Erica Klampfl at Ford Motor Company. Jiang Zhijie, Zheng Wei, and Zang Ye at the State InformaOon Center in Beijing, China. Center for Climate and Energy Decision Making. 21