Consumers' willingness to pay for alternative fuel vehicle: comparative analysis between US and Japan

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1 April Consumers' willingness to pay for alternative fuel vehicle: comparative analysis between US and Japan Takanori Ida, Kyoto University, Japan Kayo Murakami, Tokyo City University, Japan Makoto Tanaka, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Japan Lee Friedman, University of California Berkeley, USA

2 I. Analysis between USA and Japan

3 Demographics

4 Survey was conducted via on-line in February of 2012.

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7 Questionnaires

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22 An eco-car is a vehicle that improves fuel economy by using electricity and electric motor power, unlike conventional gasoline-powered vehicles. Fuel economy (The cost for the same distance) The cost for gas and electricity Mileage (Per one charging or fueling) Greenhouse gas emissions Fuel availability Electric Vehicle(EV) Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle(PHEV) EV PHEV Reduced by about 20 to 80 percent Approximately 200 to 1500 km Reduced by about 20 to 80 percent Charging at home Rechargeable at home outlet. Requires overnight or about 8 hours for sufficient charge. Run by a battery and a electric motor with a great fuel economy. Charge needed. Utilizes both power of electric motor and gasoline engine with improved fuel economy. Both fueling and charging is possible with a plug-in function. The price is about 300,000 to 1 million yen higher than the same type of gasoline car (2 million yen) EV only needs charging and PHEV needs charging and fueling Fast charging 80 percent charge in 30 minutes at gas stations with fast charging equipment. Gas station In addition to charging, Fueling is possible at conventional gas stations. The same type of gasoline vehicle and the conventional hybrid vehicle Vehicles run by gasoline engine. The hybrid vehicle uses both a electric motor and a gasoline engine, but cannot be charged since it has no plug-in function. The price is about 2 million yen. Cost per 1 liter of gas 120 to 150 yen per 20 km km Reduced about 0 50 percent Fueling Gas station Fueling at gas stations as before.

23 Conjoint Econometrics

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26 Estimation Results US respondents (all) Coeff. Std.Err. WTP($) <fixed parameter> Purchace Price (US$) Constant_No_car <mean of random parameter> Fuel cost (% off compared with gasoline vehicles) Range (miles) Emission reduction (% reduction) Fuel station availability (X out of 10 stations have alternative fuel) Home plug-in construction fee (US$1000) <s.d. of random parameter> Fuel cost Range Emission reduction Fuel station availability Home plug-in construction fee Japanese respondents Coeff. Std.Err. WTP(US$) <fixed parameter> Purchase Price (US$) Constant_No_car <mean of random parameter> Fuel cost (% off compared with gasoline vehicles) Range (miles) Emission reduction (% reduction) Fuel station availability (X out of 10 stations have alternative fuel) Home plug-in construction fee (US$1000) <s.d. of random parameter> Fuel cost Range Emission reduction Fuel station availability Home plug-in construction fee Number of obs McFadden Pseudo R-squared Log likelihood function Number of obs McFadden Pseudo R-squared Log likelihood function

27 WTP Values for Conjoint Characteristics WTP%for%alterna;ve%fuel%vehicle% US%% Japan% US$%($1= 80) 100.0%% 80.0%% 60.0%% 40.0%% 20.0%% 0.0%% C20.0%% C40.0%% Fuel%cost%% (%%off%compared%with% gasoline%vehicles)% Range%% (miles)% Emission%reduc;on%% (%%reduc;on)% Fuel%sta;on% availability%% (X%out%of%10%sta;ons% have%alterna;ve%fuel)% Home%plugCin% construc;on%fee%% (US$100)% US%% 13.9%% 5.8%% 61.7%% 27.1%% C24.8%% Japan% 7.5% 11.7% 86.4% 13.3% C20.0%

28 Choice Probability Elasticity (Japan) Choice)Probability)elas;city)with)conjoint)characteris;cs)(Japan) EV) PHEV) Gasoline)Car) 2) 1) 0) A1) A2) A3) A4) Purchase)Price)(US$)) Fuel)cost)(%)) Range)(miles)) Japan) Emission)reduc;on) (%)) Fuel)sta;on) availability) Home)plugAin) construc;on)fee)) EV) A3.285) ) ) ) 0.053) A0.1025) PHEV) A2.8601) ) ) ) 0.047) A0.0856) Gasoline)Car) A2.1245) A0.0176) ) ) ) 0)

29 Choice Probability Elasticity (USA) Choice)Probability)elas;city)with)conjoint)characteris;cs)(USA) EV) PHEV) Gasoline)Car) 2) 1) 0) A1) A2) A3) A4) Purchase)Price)(US$)) Fuel)cost)(%)) Range)(miles)) USA) Emission)reduc;on) (%)) Fuel)sta;on) availability) Home)plugAin) construc;on)fee)) EV) A3.1952) ) ) ) ) A0.1185) PHEV) A2.9882) ) ) ) ) A0.1054) Gasoline)Car) A1.7914) ) ) ) ) 0)

30 Scenario Analysis Scenario 1 (Realistic) Scenario 2 (Modest innovation) Scenario 3 (Radical innovation) EV PHEV Gas Car No Car EV PHEV Gas Car No Car EV PHEV Gas Car No Car Purchase Price (US$) Constant_No_car Fuel cost (% off compared with gasoline vehicles) Range (miles) Emission reduction (% reduction) Fuel station availability (X out of 10 stations have alternative fuel) Home plug-in construction fee (US$100)

31 Choice Probability Simulation 1 Scenario 1 (Realistic) EV PHEV Gas Car No Car Japan USA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% USA Japan EV 2.8% 2.5% PHEV 8.5% 27.7% Gas Car 78.8% 68.7% No Car 9.9% 1.1%

32 Choice Probability Simulation 2 Scenario 2 (Modest innovation) EV PHEV Gas Car No Car Japan USA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% USA Japan EV 12.7% 6.4% PHEV 38.9% 70.7% Gas Car 43.0% 22.6% No Car 5.4% 0.4%

33 Choice Probability Simulation 3 Scenario 3 (Radical innovation) EV PHEV Gas Car No Car Japan USA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% USA Japan EV 19.7% 7.7% PHEV 60.6% 84.9% Gas Car 17.5% 7.3% No Car 2.2% 0.1%

34 II. Analysis across US four states

35 Demographics

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39 Questionnaires

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53 Conjoint Econometrics

54 Estimation Results US respondents (all) California Texas Michigan New York Coeff. Std.Err. WTP($) Coeff. Std.Err. WTP($) Coeff. Std.Err. WTP($) Coeff. Std.Err. WTP($) Coeff. <fixed parameter> Purchace Price (US$) Constant_No_car <mean of random parameter> Fuel cost (% off compared with gasoline vehicles) Range (miles) Std.Err. WTP($) Emission reduction (% reduction) Fuel station availability (X out of 10 stations have alternative fuel) Home plug-in construction fee (US $100) <s.d. of random parameter> Fuel cost Range Emission reduction Fuel station availability Home plug-in construction fee Number of obs McFadden Pseudo R- squared Log likelihood function

55 WTP Values for Conjoint Characteristics WTP%for%alterna;ve%fuel%vehicle% California% Texas% Michigan% New%York% 80.0%% US$%($1= 80) 60.0%% 40.0%% 20.0%% 0.0%% C20.0%% C40.0%% Fuel%cost%% (%%off%compared%with% gasoline%vehicles)% Range%% (miles)% Emission%reduc;on%% (%%reduc;on)% Fuel%sta;on% availability%% (X%out%of%10%sta;ons% have%alterna;ve%fuel)% Home%plugCin% construc;on%fee%% (US$100)% California% 39.4% 6.2% 66.4% 21.5% C21.9% Texas% 5.5% 5.8% 58.6% 32.7% C24.4% Michigan% C6.0% 5.9% 68.6% 25.8% C26.4% New%York% 14.0% 5.8% 62.7% 27.5% C25.2%

56 USA California Texas Choice Probability Elasticity Purchase Price (US$) Fuel cost (%) Range (miles) Emission reduction (%) Fuel station availability Home plug-in construction fee EV PHEV Gasoline Car Purchase Price (US$) Fuel cost (%) Range (miles) Emission reduction (%) Fuel station availability Home plug-in construction fee EV PHEV Gasoline Car Purchase Price (US$) Fuel cost (%) Range (miles) Emission reduction (%) Fuel station availability EV PHEV Gasoline Car Michigan Purchase Price (US$) Fuel cost (%) Range (miles) Emission reduction (%) Fuel station availability EV PHEV Gasoline Car New York Purchase Price (US$) Fuel cost (%) Range (miles) Emission reduction (%) Fuel station availability EV PHEV Gasoline Car

57 Scenario Analysis Scenario 1 (Realistic) Scenario 2 (Modest innovation) Scenario 3 (Radical innovation) EV PHEV Gas Car No Car EV PHEV Gas Car No Car EV PHEV Gas Car No Car Purchase Price (US$) Constant_No_car Fuel cost (% off compared with gasoline vehicles) Range (miles) Emission reduction (% reduction) Fuel station availability (X out of 10 stations have alternative fuel) Home plug-in construction fee (US$100)

58 Choice Probability Simulation 1 Scenario 1 (Realistic) EV PHEV Gas Car No Car NY MIC TEX CAL 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% CAL TEX MIC NY EV 4.7% 2.0% 1.7% 2.8% PHEV 13.0% 6.6% 6.4% 8.5% Gas Car 70.0% 82.0% 82.4% 78.8% No Car 12.2% 9.4% 9.6% 9.9%

59 Choice Probability Simulation 2 Scenario 2 (Modest innovation) EV PHEV Gas Car No Car NY MIC TEX CAL 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% CAL TEX MIC NY EV 16.7% 10.4% 9.8% 12.7% PHEV 45.9% 35.1% 37.6% 38.9% Gas Car 31.8% 48.9% 47.2% 43.0% No Car 5.6% 5.6% 5.5% 5.4%

60 Choice Probability Simulation 3 Scenario 3 (Radical innovation) EV PHEV Gas Car No Car NY MIC TEX CAL 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% CAL TEX MIC NY EV 22.9% 17.6% 16.4% 19.7% PHEV 63.1% 59.2% 63.1% 60.6% Gas Car 11.9% 20.9% 18.3% 17.5% No Car 2.1% 2.4% 2.1% 2.2%

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