Electric Vehicles and Solar PV A Total Cost of Ownership Approach"

Transcription

1 Electric Vehicles and Solar A Total Cost of Ownership Approach" Makena Coffman" Associate Professor, Urban Planning" Research Fellow, UHERO" " Sherilyn Wee" PhD Candidate, Economics" RA, UHERO" " Paul Bernstein" PhD, Operations Research" Researcher, UHERO"

2 Motivation and Approach" EVs are potentially important to reducing GHG emissions" EVs have higher upfront costs" o Federal tax credit" Study approach" o Use a consumer total cost of ownership (TCO) approach to build insight into whether EVs are a good buy compared to other popular cars" o How does change TCO?" o Impacts to GHG emissions?"

3 Number of EVs Deployed in Hawaii " 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,

4 Annual Capacity Installed in Hawaii " MW

5 Total Cost of Vehicle Ownership"!!"# =! +!!! (1 +!)!!!!!!(1 +!)!!! " P is purchase price" C is maintenance and operating costs (fuel, insurance, taxes and license, tire replacement, battery replacement and EV home charger)" R is the resale value" " 15-year ownership, 150,000 miles"

6 Future Fuel Costs" Gasoline and Crude Oil Relationship" o Based on EIA Form 782B, motor gasoline sales through retail outlet prices by state and type" o " Ln(regular gas) Ln(premium gas) Ln(imported crude oil) 0.613* 0.523* [0.039] [0.036] Constant * * [0.151] [0.139] Observations Adjusted R-squared Robust standard errors in brackets. * p<0.01. o Projected forward using the EIA s Annual Energy Outlook forecast for low, reference and high gasoline prices"

7 Regular Gasoline Price Forecast " 7 6 $2013/gallon Low Ref High

8 Historical Crude Oil Price and Electricity Rate " $2013/bbl $2013/kWh Average Imported Crude Price ($/bbl) Hawaii Elec Rates ($/kwh) - right axis

9 Electricity and Crude Oil Relationship" Ln(electric rate) Ln(imported crude oil) 0.325* [0.043] Constant * [0.161] Observations 21 Adjusted R-squared Robust standard errors in brackets. * p<0.01. But what about the future?" o 40% by 2030 RPS"

10 Electricity Rate Forecast " $2013/kWh Low Ref High

11 TCO without the Federal Tax Credit " Present Value Dollars 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 4,000 0 Finance Taxes & License Maintenance Tire 15 Chevrolet Volt 15 Ford C-Max Energi 15 Ford Fusion Energi 15 Ford Focus Electric 15 Toyota Plug-In Prius 15 Nissan Leaf 15 Ford C-Max 15 Ford Fusion 15 Ford Fusion 15 Honda Civic 15 Honda Accord 15 Honda Civic 15 Toyota Camry 15 Toyota Camry 15 Ford Focus 15 Toyota Corolla 15 Toyota Prius EVs Others Insurance Gasoline Electricity Average Annual Cost (AAC) Average EV: $85,900" Average ICE/HEV: $78,000"

12 TCO with the Federal Tax Credit " Present Value Dollars 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 4,000 0 Finance Taxes & License Maintenance Tire 15 Chevrolet Volt 15 Ford C-Max Energi 15 Ford Fusion Energi 15 Toyota Plug-In Prius 15 Ford Focus Electric 15 Nissan Leaf 15 Ford C-Max 15 Ford Fusion 15 Ford Fusion 15 Honda Civic 15 Honda Accord 15 Honda Civic 15 Toyota Camry 15 Toyota Camry 15 Ford Focus 15 Toyota Corolla 15 Toyota Prius EVs Others Insurance Gasoline Electricity Average Annual Cost (AAC) Average EV: $80,600" Average ICE/HEV: $78,000"

13 Low, Reference, and High Total Fuel Costs " Present Value Dollars 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Chevrolet Volt 15 Ford C-Max Energi 15 Ford Fusion Energi 15 Ford Focus Electric 15 Nissan Leaf 15 Toyota Plug-In Prius 15 Ford Fusion 15 Toyota Camry 15 Honda Accord 15 Honda Civic 15 Toyota Corolla 15 Ford Focus 15 Ford C-Max 15 Toyota Camry 15 Ford Fusion 15 Honda Civic 15 Toyota Prius Low Gasoline/ Electricity Costs Ref Gasoline/ Electricity Costs High Gasoline/ Electricity Costs EVs Ref Average EV: $13,200" Ref Average ICE/HEV: $11,300" Others

14 Add Solar " Assumptions" o $4/watt, 25 year warranty (so discounted for 15 years)" o Sized for EV charging relative to each BEV and PHEV" o Grandfathered into current net-metering"

15 TCO with Residential " Present Value Dollars 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 w/o w/o w/o w/o w/o w/o 15 Ford C- Max Energi 15 Ford Fusion Energi 15 Toyota Plug-In Prius 15 Chevrolet Volt 15 Ford Focus Electric 15 Nissan Leaf Electricity Other Costs

16 Impacts to GHGs?" Coal, 15% Wind, 6% Biomass/MSW, 5% Oil, 70% Geothermal, 3% Hydro, 1% Solar, 0% Biofuels, 0% Source: EIA, 2015" "

17 Depends on the electricity mix " 2014 Generation Portfolio" Change in Total Cost ($) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Toyota Prius Ford C-Max Toyota Plug-In Prius Ford Fusion Chevrolet Volt Ford C-Max Energi Ford Fusion Energi Ford Focus Electric Toyota Camry Honda Civic Nissan Leaf Honda Civic Ford Fusion Ford Focus Toyota Corolla Honda Accord Toyota Camry Change in CO 2 Emissions (MTCO 2 ) BEV PHEV HEV ICE

18 Increased Renewables" 40% RPS" Change in Total Cost ($) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Toyota Prius Ford C-Max Energi Honda Civic Nissan Leaf Chevrolet Volt Ford C-Max Ford Focus Electric Ford Fusion Energi Toyota Plug-In Prius Ford Fusion Toyota Camry Honda Civic Ford Fusion Ford Focus Toyota Corolla Honda Accord Toyota Camry Change in CO 2 Emissions (MTCO 2 ) BEV PHEV HEV ICE

19 But what if EV owners had incentive to charge during the day?" 50/50" Change in Total Cost ($) Chevrolet Volt Ford C-Max Energi Ford Fusion Energi Ford Focus Electric Toyota Plug-In Prius Nissan Leaf 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Honda Civic Ford C-Max Ford Fusion Ford Fusion Honda Civic Honda Accord Toyota Camry BEV PHEV HEV ICE Toyota Camry Ford Focus - Toyota Corolla Toyota Prius Change in CO 2 Emissions (MTCO 2 )

20 Preliminary Conclusions" National approach to understanding EV adoption and impacts provide limited insights" Cost and GHG impacts of EVs will dramatically differ by location" Regional policies may be more appropriate? Timing?" In Hawaii, EVs relatively more expensive" o Margin is small and the Nissan Leaf is cost-effective" o Access to makes EVs make greater financial sense" o But that doesn t mean there are necessarily GHG benefits" o Hawaii s still fossil-fuel dominated portfolio means that the GHG promise of EVs has yet to be realized" o Likely more promising in move to 100% by 2045"

21 Mahalo"