New Engines and Fuels for U.S. Cars and Light Trucks Ryan Keefe* Jay Griffin* John D. Graham**
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1 New Engines and Fuels for U.S. Cars and Light Trucks Ryan Keefe* Jay Griffin* John D. Graham** *Doctoral Fellows, Pardee RAND Graduate School **Dean and Chair of Policy Analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School, Santa Monica, CA
2 Acknowledgements Pre-conference review by seven peer reviewers PRGS supported by unrestricted contributions from Chrysler, Dow, Dupont, Ford, General-Electric, General Motors, and Toyota A /2007
3 Motivation High oil and gasoline prices Concerns about energy security Concerns about global climate change A /2007
4 Motivation High oil and gasoline prices Concerns about energy security Concerns about global climate change Question What role could new engines and fuels play in the transport sector? A /2007
5 Technology Options Gasoline-powered ICE (baseline) Advanced diesel engines Gasoline-electric electric hybrids Diesel-electric electric hybrids Blends with ethanol Blends with biodiesel Coal-to to-liquids CNG LNG Propane Plug-in hybrids Fuel cells Electric vehicles A /2007
6 Screening Criteria Reduce oil use Reduce greenhouse gas emissions Market penetration by early part of (1 million vehicles/year) A /2007
7 Technologies Selected Gasoline-electric electric hybrid (e.g. Toyota Prius or Ford Escape Hybrid) Advanced diesel engine (e.g. Mercedes Benz E320 sedan) E85 (blend of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline)* *Baseline fuel ( gasohol ) is 10% ethanol and 90% gasoline. A /2007
8 Full Hybrids A /2007
9 Toyota Prius Vehicle Type MPG City MPG Hwy Combined MPG Hybrid A /2007
10 Honda Civic Vehicle Type MPG City MPG Hwy Combined MPG Hybrid Conventional A /2007
11 Toyota Camry Vehicle Type MPG City MPG Hwy Combined MPG Hybrid Conventional A /2007
12 Ford Escape Vehicle Type MPG City MPG Hwy Combined MPG Hybrid Conventional A /2007
13 Chevy Tahoe Vehicle Type MPG City MPG Hwy Combined MPG Hybrid Conventional A /2007
14 Advanced Diesels A /2007
15 2007 Mercedes Benz E320 BLUETEC Sedan Fuel Type MPG City MPG Hwy Combined MPG Torque Diesel lb/ft Gas lb/ft A /2007
16 2007 Jeep Grand Cherokee CRD Fuel Type MPG City MPG Hwy Combined MPG Torque Diesel lb/ft Gas lb/ft A /2007
17 2007 Chevy Silverado 2500/3500 Diesel Fuel Type MPG City MPG Hwy Combined MPG Torque Diesel lb/ft Gas lb/ft A /2007
18 Dedicated E-85 E Vehicle None currently sold but over 7 million passenger vehicles (mostly from GM, Ford and Chrysler) on the road have "dual-fuel" capability (gasoline or E85) A /2007
19 Analytic Methods A /2007
20 Stages In Analysis of Fuel Cycle Extraction/Farming Factors Affecting Emissions at Each Stage Energy use Fuel mix Emissions intensity Transport Fuel production/ Refining Transport Model estimates: Total energy use Oil consumption GHG emissions Criteria pollutant emissions Use in automobile A /2007
21 Benefit-Cost Model Two perspectives: consumer and societal Three vehicle types: mid-sized car, mid-sized SUV and large pick-up truck (or large SUV) Steady state assumption; economies of scale at 1 million units/year ( ) 2020) Maximum 25-year vehicle life, scrappage rate Lifecycle inputs for energy and pollution Compute Net present value (NPV) of each technology Results expressed as NPV for illustrative vehicle ($2005) A /2007
22 Consumer Perspective Fuel costs Mobility Technology cost Performance Consumer s NPV A /2007
23 Fuel Economy Inputs Gasoline baseline (MPG) Car SUV Percent change from baseline Pickup Hybrid Advanced diesel E85 A /2007
24 Technology Cost Inputs 6,000 5,000 4,000 4,200 5,040 3,500 Car SUV Pickup Thousands of dollars 3,000 2,500 2,300 3,000 2,000 1, Hybrid Advanced diesel E85 (dedicated) A /2007
25 Fuel Price Inputs ($ per gallon energy equivalents) $2.72 $2.50 $2.59 Gasoline Diesel E85 (w/credit) A /2007
26 NPV Results Consumer perspective, 7% discount rate $ 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Hybrid Advanced diesel E85 (dedicated) ,066 1, , ,000-1,500-2,000-1,034-1,332-1,632 Car SUV Pickup A /2007
27 New Baseline: Improved Gasoline Engine Assumption: 25% MPG gain at zero net cost to consumer NPV results: Negative for hybrid and diesel as well as E85 A /2007
28 Other Consumer Scenarios Urban consumer Hybrid car has highest NPV for 100% urban consumer Short time horizon If consumer time horizon is only 3 years, with no resale credit for MPG, NPV is negative except for diesel pick-up Consumer tax credits Improve NPV of hybrids and, to lesser extent, diesels A /2007
29 NPV Ranking of Technologies, Alternative Fuel Price, SUVs Price scenarios Gasoline Hybrid Diesel E85 Nominal A /2007
30 NPV Ranking of Technologies, Alternative Fuel Price, SUVs Price scenarios Gasoline Hybrid Diesel E85 Nominal High gas price A /2007
31 NPV Ranking of Technologies, Alternative Fuel Price, SUVs Price scenarios Gasoline Hybrid Diesel E85 Nominal High gas price High E85 price A /2007
32 NPV Ranking of Technologies, Alternative Fuel Price, SUVs Price scenarios Gasoline Hybrid Diesel E85 Nominal High gas price High E85 price Low gas price A /2007
33 NPV Ranking of Technologies, Alternative Fuel Price, SUVs Price scenarios Gasoline Hybrid Diesel E85 Nominal High gas price High E85 price Low gas price Low E85 price A /2007
34 NPV Ranking of Technologies, Alternative Fuel Price, SUVs Price scenarios Gasoline Hybrid Diesel E85 Nominal A /2007
35 NPV Ranking of Technologies, Alternative Fuel Price, SUVs Price scenarios Gasoline Hybrid Diesel E85 Nominal High gas, high E A /2007
36 NPV Ranking of Technologies, Alternative Fuel Price, SUVs Price scenarios Gasoline Hybrid Diesel E85 Nominal High gas, high E Low gas, low E A /2007
37 NPV Ranking of Technologies, Alternative Fuel Price, SUVs Price scenarios Gasoline Hybrid Diesel E85 Nominal High gas, high E Low gas, low E High gas, low E A /2007
38 NPV Ranking of Technologies, Alternative Fuel Price, SUVs Price scenarios Gasoline Hybrid Diesel E85 Nominal High gas, high E Low gas, low E High gas, low E Low gas, high E A /2007
39 Societal Perspective Conventional pollutants Greenhouse gases Congestion Energy security externality Consumer inputs Societal NPV Removal of taxes A /2007
40 NPV Results Societal perspective, 7% discount rate $ 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Hybrid Diesel E , ,199-1,000-1,500-2,000-2,500-1,046-1,500 Car SUV Pickup -2,049 A /2007
41 Interesting Features of Societal Analysis Greenhouse gases and climate change Conventional air pollution Energy security A /2007
42 NPV Savings from Externalities NPV of externality (2005$) $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Hybrid Diesel E-85 Energy security GHG reduction Conventional pollutant reduction Note: Calculations include reductions from technology and changes s from rebound effect A /2007
43 Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Net emissions = 418 Vehicle operation Fuel production Feedstock Greenhouse gas emissions (grams CO2 equivalent/mi) Gasoline E-85 Diesel Hybrid A /2007
44 NPV Under Alternative Carbon Prices (SUV) $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 Diesel Hybrid E-85 $1,000 NPV (2005$) $500 $0 $(500) $(1,000) $(1,500) $(2,000) At $14/ton CO2 At $100/ton CO2 A /2007
45 SUV Pollutant Rankings 1 = Cleanest; 4 = Dirtiest VOCs CO NOx PM10 PM2.5 SOx Gasoline Diesel Hybrid E A /2007
46 Robustness of Diesel Results in the Societal Case Sensitivity analysis Fuel price Greenhouse gas Energy security Conventional tailpipe pollutants Rebound effect Diesel NPV All positive (except car in low gas price case, slightly negative) All positive (even in case where cost of CO2 = 0) All positive (even if zero externality) All positive (even if zero) All Positive Diesel rank order First in all but low-cost ethanol case First First (until energy security cost is greater than $1.00 / gal) First First A /2007
47 Concerns About Diesel Cost of emissions control (NOx( and Particles) Durability of emissions control Uncertainty about future tailpipe pollution limits Fuel economy penalty from emissions control A /2007
48 High Energy-Security Externality Favors E85 (SUV) Nominal assumption: $0.33/gallon At $0.73/gallon, E85 NPV turns positive At $1.29/gallon, E85 ranks first of four technologies A /2007
49 Key Insight Advanced diesels join hybrids as a promising fuel-saving technology for Key Limitation Results are highly sensitive to future fuel prices A /2007
50 Recent Market Developments A /2007
51 Volkswagen Jetta (2008) A /2007
52 Audi A4 Sedan (2009) A /2007
53 Cadillac CTS Sedan (2010) A /2007
54 Hummer H2 (2010) A /2007
55 Thank you!
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