Proactive Positioning Seeking Opportunity in a Low Growth Environment

Transcription

1 AUTOMOTIVE Proactive Positioning Seeking Opportunity in a Low Growth Environment 8 September 2016 Detroit Mike Jackson, Senior Executive, North America, Vehicle Production Forecasting , mike.jackson@ihsmarkit.com. All Rights Reserved.

2 Market assessment NA Production Recession Linear (NA Production) You are here Portfolio review Cycle check Goals Risk profile Timeframe Demand Capabilities Technology Risk mitigation Customer base Diversification Hedging Action plan Assess Diagnose Execute. All Rights Reserved.

3 Diversification Market Markets Customer Positioning Customer Targets & Investments Product Segment L Brand Technology Body type. All Rights Reserved.

4 North American production LAUNCH EVENTS +10.2M +9.4M M M All Rights Reserved. 93

5 North American opportunity Gainers outpace market: % 1.5M Mazda Daimler Faraday Honda BMW Atieva Subaru Geely Tesla VW Hyundai. All Rights Reserved. 94

6 Cars climb, SUVs soar Car SUV Truck

7 Portfolio comparison 2015 OEM Units Car SUV Truck General Motors 3,433 31% 36% 34% Ford 3,105 31% 32% 37% FCA 2,758 20% 58% 22% $ Toyota 2,034 48% 36% 15% Honda 1,862 48% 52% 0% Renault Nissan 1,767 58% 29% 13% Hyundai % 35% 0% BMW 400 0% 100% 0% Daimler % 64% 7% Volkswagen % 0% 0% Other % 40% 0% Unit volume 7,072 6,954 2,900 NA average 17,495 40% 40% 20%

8 Portfolio comparison 2023 OEM Units Car SUV Truck General Motors 3,440 33% 40% 27% Ford 3,030 26% 37% 37% FCA 2,226 10% 65% 25% Toyota 2,145 49% 36% 14% Honda 2,013 48% 50% 2% $ Renault Nissan 1,645 59% 30% 12% Hyundai 1,221 67% 29% 3% BMW % 73% 0% Daimler % 72% 10% Volkswagen % 36% 0% Other % 46% 0% Unit volume 7,549 7,821 3,245 NA average 18,615 41% 42% 17%

9 Car output K - 51K +127K +485K Small Midsize Fullsize Car US3 2,305 1,976 2,152-14% 9% Asian4 3,585 3,673 3,818 2% 4% German % 13% Other % 0% Small 3,293 3,499 3,778 Midsize 6% 8% 3,293 3,316 3,420 1% 3% Fullsize % 7%

10 Regional car profile 5.0 4% United States Shift toward more SUVs % 3.0 3% % 2% Mexico Share % US Mexico Canada Retooling Start-ups Mexico Significant investment Greenfield Technology opportunity Canada Shift toward more SUVs

11 SUV output K K K K Small Midsize Fullsize SUV US3 3,939 4,095 3,914 4% -4% Asian4 2,302 2,328 2,269 1% -3% German % -6% Other % 50% Small 1,965 2,369 2,334 21% -1% Midsize 2,771 3,133 3,263 13% 4% Full-size 2,473 2,378 2,224-4% -6% SUV = SUV/CUV/MPV

12 Automotive Conference Detroit 8 September 2016 Midsize surge 2010 = 361, = 511, = 700,000 Santa Cruz Compact Pickup +36% Ranger Canyon Colorado Ridgeline Frontier Tacoma

13 Mexico production opportunity Gainers outpace market: % 1.5 million Honda Mazda BMW Daimler Toyota Hyundai GM VW Ford 102

14 Mexico output M -207K +800K +819K Mexico US3 1,602 2,137 2,145 33% 0% Asian4 1,287 1,616 1,627 26% 1% German % 16% Other % 18% Car 1,988 2,481 2,808 25% 13% Car SUV Truck SUV 561 1,366 1, % 0% Truck % -17%

15 Global EV production % % 40% 30% 20% 2023:.6 million CAGR = 28.3% 19 nameplates NA EV ROW EV NA EV Share China EV Share 10% 0% 2023: 1.1 million CAGR = 27.5% 146 nameplates 104

16 General Motors Car SUV Truck GM 3,653 3,558 3,440-3% -3% Buick % 14% Cadillac % -12% Chevrolet 2,596 2,503 2,449-4% -2% GMC % -5% Car 1,171 1,024 1,141-13% 11% SUV 1,240 1,459 1,360 18% -7% Truck 1,242 1, % -13%

17 Ford Car SUV Truck FMC 3,078 2,958 3,030-4% 2% Ford 2,908 2,786 2,849-4% 2% Lincoln % 5% Car % 8% SUV 1,090 1,027 1,111-6% 8% Truck 1,183 1,199 1,131 1% -6%

18 Fiat Chrysler Automobiles FCA 2,601 2,508 2,226-4% -11% Chrysler % -10% Dodge % -26% Jeep 1,066 1,192 1,121 12% -6% Ram % -15% Car Car SUV Truck -33% 2% SUV 1,609 1,609 1,442 0% -10% Truck % -17%

19 Toyota Car SUV Truck TMC 2,176 2,117 2,145-3% 1% Lexus % 3% Toyota 2,015 1,973 1,997-2% 1% Car 1, ,060-10% 13% SUV % -6% Truck % -11%

20 Honda HMC 1,962 1,999 2,013 2% 1% Acura % -1% Honda 1,767 1,813 1,828 3% 1% Car % 4% SUV 1,005 1,029 1, Car SUV Truck 2% -2% Truck % 12%

21 Renault-Nissan Ren-Nis 1,846 1,668 1,645-10% -1% Infiniti % 26% Nissan 1,793 1,547 1,493-14% -3% Renault % -12% Car 1, Car SUV Truck -6% -2% SUV % 3% Truck % -10%

22 Hyundai Car SUV Truck HMC 851 1,223 1,221 44% 0% Hyundai % 0% Kia % -1% Car % 1% SUV % -5% Truck %

23 Volkswagen VW Audi 59% 5% % 26% VW % 1% Car % 14% SUV Car SUV Truck 2699% -9% Truck

24 BMW BMW % 11% 0.4 Car % SUV % -10% Truck Car SUV Truck

25 Daimler Daimler % -12% Car % -48% SUV % 6% Truck Car SUV Truck -11% 0%

26 Other manufacturers Car SUV Truck Subaru % -8% Mazda % 18% Tesla % 46% Car % 0% SUV % 50% Truck

27 Summary: Proactive positioning Mitigate risk: Fewer growth opportunities lead to higher risk behavior Profit requires taking calculated risks over a set investment horizon Proactively manage business portfolio; transition ahead of inflection point Audit: Align future strategy with core capabilities and risk profile Increased launch and investment activity at reduced volumes drives a profit squeeze Leverage: Seize sound opportunities to grow as market stress rises Window of opportunity to take action as market maintains momentum Sound diversification requires global perspective Embrace global opportunities to develop expertise; Chinese OEMs and suppliers are actively working to make inroads, offering risk and reward

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