European & Global Biodiesel Markets

Transcription

1 European & Global Biodiesel Markets May 2015 Jacobsen Conference Presented by Kevin McGeeney Geneva Rotterdam London Chicago New York Lisbon Singapore San Francisco 1

2 European & Global Biodiesel Markets SCB has the goal of boosting the efficiency of commodity markets across the globe. Increasing the efficiency of markets promotes global trade and increases the linkages and understandings between peoples. SCB drives to this goal by improving price and product transparency while lowering the costs of transactions. 2

3 European & Global Biodiesel Markets European Biodiesel Current view of market Expectations for change Barriers to trade the position of anti-dumping Asian Biodiesel Australian Biodiesel Antarctica Biodiesel 3

4 European Biodiesel Markets 4

5 Million Gallons European Biodiesel Markets EU Biodiesel Statistics 7,000 6,251 6,549 6,613 7,037 7,240 6,904 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 3,345 3,450 3,306 3,423 3,169 3,289 80% 86% 87% 1, % Capacity (gal) Consumption (gal) RED Consumptions (%) Source: SCB, EBB, Eurostat, Euobserv'ER 5

6 Price, USD/gallon European Biodiesel Markets 6.0 RME non-red, $/gallon Source: SCB 6

7 Spread Value, USD/gallon European Biodiesel Markets 1.6 Non RED RME - SME Spread (USD/gallon) /2/2007 1/2/2008 1/2/2009 1/2/2010 1/2/2011 1/2/2012 1/2/2013 1/2/2014 1/2/2015 Source: SCB 7

8 USD/gallon European Biodiesel Markets UCOME Product Margin Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 UCOME UCO Source: SCB 8

9 European Biodiesel Markets Capacity of Major Biodiesel Plants in Europe Year 2013 Diester Neste Oil Biopetrol Industries Plants France (5), Germany (1), Italy (1), Belgium (1) Finland (2), Netherlands (1) Germany (2), Netherlands (1) Capacity (mt) Capacity (million gallons) 2,500, ,180, ,000, ADM Biodiesel Germany (3) 975, Infinita (Musim Mas) Spain (2) 900, Marseglia Group Italy (2) 560, Verbio Germany (2) 450, Cargill/Agravis Germany (2) 250, Petrotec Germany (2), Spain (1) 185, Total 8,000,000 2,400 Source: EurObserv'ER 9

10 European Biodiesel Markets Capacity of Major Biodiesel Plants in Europe (Million Gallons) Year 2013 Diester Neste Oil Biopetrol Industries Diester, 750 Neste Oil, 354 Biopetrol Industries, 300 ADM Biodiesel Infinita (Musim Mas) Marseglia Group Verbio Cargill/Agravis Petrotec Others Others, 4,840 ADM Biodiesel, 293 Infinita (Musim Mas), 270 Marseglia Group, 168 Verbio, 135 Cargill/Agravis, 75 Petrotec, 56 Source: EurObserv'ER 10

11 European Biodiesel Markets Issues of environment, climate and energy are no longer prescient in Europe. Q. What do you think are the two most important issues facing (OUR COUNTRY) at the moment? Unemployment 51% Pensions 9% Economic Situation 33% Taxation 9% Rising Prices 20% Education system 8% Government Debt 15% Housing 5% Crime 12% Environment, climate and energy 4% Health and social security 11% Terrorism 3% Immigration 10% Other 1% European Commission: Standard Eurobarometer 79, Spring

12 European Biodiesel Markets European markets up to and beyond 2020 European biodiesel consumption now likely to grow in the major markets up to the end of Countries with substantial biodiesel production will likely maintain mandates beyond Diesel demand facing structural decline in Europe. 12

13 European Biodiesel Markets European markets up to end 2020 All branches of EU legislature have agreed to a 7% mandated volume of biofuel from non-advanced sources. Current level is 4.6%. ILUC data to be collected by nation states but will not be used. Individual nations are able to lower the mandated volume should they wish. 13

14 European Biodiesel Markets European markets post 2021 No EU wide biofuel transport policy Nation states have GHG reduction targets of 40% by 2030 and must present credible plans and milestones Little alternative to biofuel up to 2030 in transport sector Expect fragmented market conditions among countries with big production 14

15 European Biodiesel Markets European markets post 2021 Electric car EU emissions 60 gco2/km Biodiesel car EU emissions 55 gco2/km Marine transport co2 emissions grown by 48% Lufthansa >1000 flights on 50% HVO, aviation sector Diesel decline 15

16 GDP per Capita (current US$) European Biodiesel Markets 50,000 India / China / Euro area / USA 40,000 30,000 USA 20,000 India China Euro area 10, Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita) World Bank Open Data

17 European Biodiesel Markets European markets post 2021 CVD on US Biodiesel to remain until 2020 CVD s on Argentine and Indonesian biodiesel also likely to remain Challenge for EU biodiesel producers is coming from HVO produced by EU Oil refineries 17

18 European & Global Biodiesel Markets Current level of financialisation in European biofuels is a huge development on 5 years ago. For further development, being small is a problem. DCM s have a lot to do If its not broken people don t want to fix it 18

19 European & Global Biodiesel Markets Options market for EU Biodiesel 19

20 European & Global Biodiesel Markets 20

21 Asian Biodiesel Markets 21

22 Asian Biodiesel Markets Source: : MPOB, CIMB 22

23 Asian Biodiesel Markets Asian Biodiesel Mandated markets are growing but bias is protectionism Discretionary blend markets ready Expectations for change Ethanol mandates larger and more common 23

24 Australian Biodiesel Markets 24

25 Australian Biodiesel Markets The Cleaner Fuels Grant rebate on the diesel excise duty of approx. US$1.20 per gallon. Current Australian government announced its death but its not dead yet. New South Wales state 2% mandate equivalent of 47 million gallons. 25

26 Antarctica Biodiesel Markets 26

27 Antarctica Biodiesel Markets The last biodiesel market on Earth! 27

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