Western European Diesel Car Market. September Oxford Detroit Frankfurt Bangkok Shanghai São Paulo Tokyo

Transcription

1 Western European Diesel Car Market September 2017 Oxford Detroit Frankfurt Bangkok Shanghai São Paulo Tokyo

2 LMC Automotive LMC Automotive provides the highest quality global sales and production forecasts for Light Vehicles and Medium and Heavy commercial vehicles, along with forecasts of engine and transmission supply and demand. Recognised as leading experts in forecasting, LMC Automotive provides the automotive industry with strategic insights unavailable elsewhere. Our regular forecasting products include: Automotive Sales Forecasts Automotive Production Forecasts Engine & Transmission Forecasts Emerging Market Reports (China, India and ASEAN) Global Car & Truck Forecast Global Commercial Vehicle Forecast Global Bus Forecast Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Forecasts Global Automotive Scenarios Service European Trade & Inventory Service LMC Automotive has offices worldwide, as well as representation through MarkLines in Tokyo and CARCON in São Paulo. LMC Automotive, All rights are reserved in all countries. While LMC Automotive endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the data, estimates and forecasts contained in this study, any decisions based on them (including those involving investment and planning) are at the client s own risk. LMC Automotive can accept no liability regarding information, analysis and forecasts contained in the study. The subscriber to this service agrees that the information, computer models, or other materials provided in printed or electronic format in this service are owned by LMC Automotive and shall remain confidential within the subscribing organisation and shall not be disclosed, in whole or in part, to any third party without the prior written consent of LMC Automotive.

3 LMC AUTOMOTIVE WESTERN EUROPEAN DIESEL CAR MARKET September 2017 LMC Automotive Oxford 4 th Floor, Clarendon House 52 Cornmarket Street Oxford OX1 3HJ UK Tel: Fax: Shanghai Room 818, Pine City No. 777 Zhaojiabang Road Xuhui Shanghai China Tel: Fax: Bangkok Suite 1107, 11 th Floor Q House Building, 66 Soi Asoke Sukhumvit 21 Road Wattana Bangkok Thailand Tel: Fax: Troy 340 East Big Beaver Suite 510 Troy MI USA Tel: Fax:

4 September 2017 Western European Diesel Car Market September s Diesel Car Market was Characterized by Modest Decline &YoY Stability W. Europe Diesel Car Share & Monthly YoY Variance (%) Share (left axis) Variance (right axis) We haven t made any revisions to August s published diesel new car share figure of 42.7%. September saw a modest (by recent standards) decline to a preliminary figure of 42.5%. The YoY monthly trend eased a bit but still remains in excess of 5 percentage points off the year ago achievement. At a market level France is seeing a slackening in the rate of diesel share decline, as anticipated. September saw just 3.7 percentage points wiped off the value of September The figures for UK, Spain & Germany are in excess of 6, 7 and 8 points respectively, with Germany now being a key contributor to regional diesel volume decline, as France was in the past. Growth in hybrid & EV adoption in Germany is helping to feed this trend. Italy (of course) steadfastly refuses to countenance a decline in diesel share and this is a bit of a mystery. Support for alternative vehicles there is at the lower end of the scale which may be a factor France Diesel Car Share (%) Nov 06 Apr 07 Sep 07 Feb 08 Jul 08 Dec 08 May 09 Oct 09 Mar 10 Aug 10 Jan 11 Jun 11 Nov 11 Apr 12 Sep 12 Feb 13 Jul 13 Dec 13 May 14 Oct 14 Mar 15 Aug 15 Jan 16 Jun 16 Nov 16 Apr 17 Sep 17 Little has changed regarding the big picture outlook for diesel in the region. There have been some more anti IC statements from governments & city administrators recently but these are generally targeting both gasoline and diesel vehicles. Paris has stated that it would like to remove diesel cars by the time it hosts the Olympic Games (2024) but we don t think this is a new policy, having been floated before. Confirmation of the post 2021 EU fleet new car CO 2 target is rumoured to be imminent and we will be watching carefully to see whether this will have a bearing on the required technology mix for the middle of the next decade and beyond. It seems unlikely that it will impact greatly on the diesel forecast. Oxford Detroit Frankfurt Bangkok Shanghai São Paulo Tokyo

5 September 2017 Western European Diesel Car Market Diesel Share of New Car Sales (%) Sep 17 Sep 16 YoY YTD September 17 YTD September 16 YoY Austria* Belgium* Denmark Finland France Germany Greece* Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Portugal* Spain Sweden Switzerland* UK W. Europe Diesel Car Sales Volume ( 000s) Sep 17 Sep 16 YoY YTD September 17 YTD September 16 YoY Austria* Belgium* Denmark Finland France Germany , , Greece* Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Portugal* Spain Sweden Switzerland* UK , W. Europe , , * Estimated for September 2017 Oxford Detroit Frankfurt Bangkok Shanghai São Paulo Tokyo

6 September 2017 Western European Diesel Car Market Forecast of Western Europe and Big 5 Market Diesel Shares 80 Diesel Share of New Car Sales (%) W Europe Germany France Italy Spain UK We have made no adjustments to the forecast as shown in the previous edition of this report. The downward trend in diesel remains, but is not showing signs of accelerating at the current time. We continue to expect that diesel, despite its problems, will be a core powertrain type for many years to come, albeit with reduced market share. Ignoring the rhetoric and focusing on actual events, outright bans on new or nearly new diesel cars still seem a somewhat remote possibility. In ten days time London will implement a Toxicity Charge (T Charge) which will prevent vehicles which do not meet minimum emissions standards from entering the same central area as that covered by the Congestion Charge scheme. In the case of diesel cars the minimum standard is set at EU4, so cars from January 2005 or younger will be allowed. This is not a great deterrent to diesel per se, but is a step in the right direction, hastening the removal of highly polluting older vehicles from the city s central area. In the end it will be evolution of alternatives to diesel as well as rising costs associated with diesel cars themselves that will kill them off in most cases. This process will take a significant amount of time to run its course and as the diesel fleet, helped by such schemes as that mentioned above, is renewed or replaced by alternatives, the burden of noxious emissions will decline. This approach has the most chance of success, and is the one advocated by most analysts as well as the industry itself. The current share forecast and resulting volume of diesel car sales are shown in the table below. West Europe diesel car market Diesel share (%) Diesel vol (mn units) For further information contact Al Bedwell, Director Global Powertrain Phone , abedwell@lmc auto.com 13 th October 2017 Oxford Detroit Frankfurt Bangkok Shanghai São Paulo Tokyo

7 LMC Automotive LMC Automotive is a market leader in the provision of automotive intelligence and forecasts to an extensive client base of car and truck makers, component manufacturers and suppliers, financial, logistics and government institutions around the world and is highly respected for its extremely responsive customer support. It offers forecasting services covering global sales and production for light vehicles and heavy trucks, as well as forecasts of engine and transmission supply and demand. In addition, LMC Automotive publishes special studies on subjects of topical interest to the automotive industry. LMC Automotive is part of the LMC group. LMC is the global leader in economic and business consultancy for the agribusiness sector. For further information about LMC Automotive, you can visit us at or us at forecasting@lmc auto.com. LMC Automotive Ltd, All rights reserved in all countries. Decisions based on this information are at the user s own risk and LMC Automotive cannot accept any liability for its accuracy. If the information in this document is reproduced in any form then full attribution must be given to LMC Automotive. Oxford Detroit Frankfurt Bangkok Shanghai São Paulo Tokyo

8 LMC Automotive Oxford 4 th Floor, Clarendon House 52 Cornmarket Street Oxford OX1 3HJ UK Tel: Fax: Shanghai Room 818, Pine City No 777 Zhaojiabang Road Xuhui Shanghai China Tel: Fax: Bangkok Suite 1107, 11 th Floor Q House Building, 66 Soi Asoke Sukhumvit 21 Road Wattana Bangkok Thailand Tel: Fax: Troy 340 East Big Beaver Suite 510 Troy MI USA Tel: Fax: