Cherry Industry Overview. Ceres 28 July 2017
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1 Cherry Industry Overview Ceres 28 July 2017
2 HECTARES Cherry area trend (ha) Producers 23 Farm units % Growth over 10 years DISTRICT HECTARES CERES 113 FREE STATE 90 NORTH WEST 28 HEXVALLEY 19 MPUMALANGA 14 GROENLAND 0,03 TOTAL
3 herry Production Areas NORTH WEST 4 11% FREE STATE 34% MPUMALANGA 5% 51% WESTERN CAPE
4 Cherry Cultivar Distribution BING; 13% OTHER; 27% ROYAL DAWN; 8% GIANT HEIDELFINGER; 2% ROYAL LEE; 7% VAN; 2% ROYAL EDIE; 2% EARLY SWEET; 3% STELLA; 3% ROYAL LYNN; 3% ROYAL HELEN; 3% HEIDELFINGER; 3% RAINIER; 3% NAPOLEON; 6% MINI ROYAL; 6% SWEETHEART; 5% LAPPINS; 4% Based on actual Hortgro Treecensus
5 Orchard Age Distribution CULTIVAR 0-2 YRS 3-5 YRS 6-15 YRS YRS 18+ YEARS BING ROYAL DAWN ROYAL LEE NAPOLEON MINNIE ROYAL SWEETHEART LAPINS RAINIER HEIDELFINGER ROYAL HELEN ROYAL LYNN STELLA EARLY SWEET ROYAL EDIE VAN OTHER TOTAL % OF TOTAL 14% 7% 48% 2% 29% Based on actual Hortgro Treecensus
6 Weekly Sales Eqv. Cartons (5 kg) South African Cherry Sales 2016/ Cherries 2015/ /2017 % DIFF 5kg Eqv. Cartons % JBH 41% Durban 31% Tshwane 20% Cumulative Sales Eqv. Cartons (5 kg) Johannesburg Durban Tshwane Cape Town Pietermaritzburg Bloemfontein Springs Klerksdorp Welkom Port Elizabeth Weekly 2015/16 Cumulative 2016/2017 Cumulative 2015/16 Source: TechnoFresh
7 Kilograms Cherries Passed for Export Per Week 2016/ / /2017 % DIFF % / /2016 Source: PPECB inspections
8 Main South African 2016/2017 CHERRY Export Region Canada USA UK 50% EU 7% Middle East 19% China Far East 17% Africa 2% IOI 5% Source: PPECB Exports
9 2017 Producer Survey Results (Production) 2017 Cherry Survey Participation = 100% of Total Cherry Plantings TOTAL PRODUCTION 2016/2017KG s = KG (6% Discard) 2016 Cherry Survey Participation = 97% of Total Cherry Plantings Local = 61% Export = 24% Processed = 9%
10 Volume of Production Per Province NORTH WEST 4 12% FREE STATE 31% MPUMALANGA 4% 53% WESTERN CAPE
11 Kilograms Export volumes (Kg) / / / /2017 Producers PPECB EXPORTS
12 Kilograms Local volumes (Kg) % % % -47% - Western Cape Free State North West Mpumalanga 2012/ / / / /2017
13 Southern Hemisphere
14 TONS Southern Hemisphere trends % % SA = 0,2% / / / / /2017 ARGENTINA CHILE SOUTH AFRICA
15 SH export market share trends 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 85% SH EXPORT MARKET 2013/ /2017 % DIFF FE & ASIA % USA & CANADA % SOUTH AMERICA % EU & RUSSIA % UNITED KINGDOM % MIDDLE EAST % OTHER % TOTAL TONS % 30% 20% 10% 0% 8% 4% 2% 2% FE & Asia USA & CANADA SOUTH AMERICA EU & RUSSIA UNITED KINGDOM 2013/ / / /2017
16 South Africa market share trends 80% 70% 60% 50% 50% EXPORT MARKET 2013/ /2017 % DIFF UNITED KINGDOM % MIDDLE EAST % FE & ASIA EU & RUSSIA % IOI % OTHER % TOTAL TONS % 40% 30% 20% 19% 17% 10% 0% 7% 5% 2% UNITED KINGDOM MIDDLE EAST FE & ASIA EU & RUSSIA IOI AFRICA 2013/ / / /2017
17 Argentina market share trends 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 40% 27% EXPORT MARKET 2013/ /17 % DIFF FE & ASIA % USA & CANADA % EU & RUSSIA % UNITED KINDGOM % MIDDLE EAST % LATIN AMERICA % OTHER % TOTAL TONS % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 17% 10% 6% 1% FE & ASIA USA & CANADA UNITED EU & RUSSIA Middle East LATIN AMERICA 2013/2014 KINDGOM 2014/ / /2017
18 Chile market share trends 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 87% EXPORT MARKET 2013/ /2017 % DIFF FE & ASIA % USA & CANADA % SOUTH AMERICA % EU & RUSSIA % UNITED KINGDOM % OTHER % TOTAL TONS % 10% 0% 7% 4% 1% 1% FE & ASIA USA & CANADA SOUTH AMERICA EU & RUSSIA UNITED KINGDOM 2013/ / / /2017
19 Production Cost
20 Assumptions Ideal world 100% of 1 hectare Plant density 4,5 x 1,5m ; trees/ha Land clearing does not include chipping Irrigation system: Makes provision for cost from pump house and includes mainlines, filters, automation and the orchard irrigation material and design Strip Fumigation with Telone in the case of reestablishment R16 000/ha Depreciation: Yr 2 6 calculated based on establishment without NET Production lifespan of orchard = 25 years Exclude amortisation Production: Year 4 = 4 t/ha; Year 6 Full Bearing= 10 t/ha Inflation on income and expenses 10% p/a Pack-Out Conventional 75% (Local and Export) Pack-Out With Net 90% (Local and Export)
21 Establishment: Conventional Establishment: Conventional Yield (ton/ha) Number of trees per ha Plant material % Land clearing & soil mapping % Land preparation & ridging % Irrigation (design & material) % Drainage % Trellising % Fertilizer % Herbicides % Pesticides 152 0% Fungicides 153 0% Rest breaking agents/growth Regulators 638 0% Consultants % Labour % Fuel (diesel) % Repairs and maintenance 627 0% Electricity % General % Overhead costs % Total cost *Overheads include: admin, bank charges, general repairs, local taxes, postage, phone, auditing, secretarial, water cost, overdraft expenses and depreciation on orchard
22 Establishment: With Net Establishment: With Net Yield (ton/ha) Number of trees per ha Plant material % Land clearing & soil mapping % Land preparation & ridging % Irrigation (design & material) % Drainage % Trellising & Net % Fertilizer % Herbicides % Pesticides 152 0% Fungicides 153 0% Rest breaking agents/growth Regulators 638 0% Consultants % Labour % Fuel (diesel) % Repairs and maintenance 627 0% Electricity % General % Overhead costs % Total cost *Overheads include: admin, bank charges, general repairs, local taxes, postage, phone, auditing, secretarial, water cost, overdraft expenses and depreciation on orchard 2 3 1
23 Major Cost Drivers Trellising & Net Plant Material Labour Land Preparation & Ridging
24 FFW to Full Production Full Bearing: Year 6 Rand Yield (ton/ha) 10 Number of trees per ha Fertilizer % Herbicides % Pesticides % Fungicides % Rest breaking agents/growth Regulators 845 0% Consultants % Labour % Fuel (diesel) % Repairs and maintenance % Electricity % General 243 0% Pollination % Transport rental % Packaging % Overhead costs % Total cost *Overheads include: admin, bank charges, general repairs, local taxes, postage, phone, auditing, secretarial, water cost, overdraft expenses and depreciation on orchard 1 3 2
25 Major Cost Drivers Labour 29% Overhead Costs 28% Packaging 23%
26 Rand Break-even Conventional R R R R R R R- R( ) R( ) R( ) R Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 (R ) (R ) (R ) (R ) (R ) Tons/ha R( ) 0 NFI CUMULATIVE Yield (ton/ha)
27 Rand Break-even With Net R R R R R R R- R( ) R( ) R R Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year R( ) R( ) R( ) (R ) (R ) (R ) (R ) (R ) 2 0 NFI CUMULATIVE Yield (ton/ha)
28 Thank you
11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
APPLE AREAS DISTRICT NUMBER OF TREES AREA (HA) CERES 1 626 911 7 452 GROENLAND 9 512 47 6 429 VILLIERSDORP / VYEBOOM 4 765 294 3 841 LANGKLOOF EAST 4 13 99 3 461 LANGKLOOF WEST 1 56 856 875 SOUTHERN CAPE
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