Autofacts Industry Update

Transcription

1 Autofacts Industry Update June 2016

2 Emerging markets driving future growth With the rise of alternative mobility models, concerns have been raised that global automotive production could be nearing its peak. However, pent up demand in emerging markets should drive the topline upward for the foreseeable future. Global Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook (millions) EMERGING MARKETS MATURE MARKETS VOLUME CHANGE CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH +20.5m 8% +1.8m - 92% Emerging Mature Source: Autofacts 2016 Q2 Forecast Release *CTG = Contribution to Growth Emerging Mature 2

3 China India Mexico Thailand Russia USA Iran Indonesia Brazil Spain RoW* Poland Uruguay South Korea Czech Republic United Kingdom Finland Belgium Australia Japan Canada Country outlook At the country level it s clear to see where growth is expected to come from 8 of the top 10 volume growth markets are classified as emerging. Meanwhile, 8 of the 10 largest assembly contractions are in mature markets. Top 10 & Bottom 10 Volume Growth Markets 2015 vs Variance (thousands) (1) Top 10 Markets: +20.4m Rest of World +3.2m 3.2 Bottom 10 Markets: (1.1m) (.3) Source: Autofacts 2016 Q1 Forecast Release *ROI = Rest of Industry 3

4 Oil prices uncertainty rains supreme Despite recent supply disruptions that caused a spike in oil prices, the near term outlook remains depressed as OPEC continues to resist calls to cut production. Europe Brent Spot Price FOB* May 2004 May 2016 ($ per barrel) May 2016 $140 $120 $ $ $48.34 / bbl* $ $100 $80 25% YoY** $60 $40 $20 $48.34 U.S. Gasoline $2.34/gallon ( 15.8% YoY) Source: US Energy Information Administration ( International Energy Agency ( *bbl = per oil barrel **YoY = Year-Over-Year 4

5 Alternative Fuel Outlook A myriad of technologies will be used as the industry balances consumer demands with global emission standards. Market share for alternative propulsion vehicles is expected to reach 7.8% in 2022, more than doubling from 2015 (3.6%). Alternative Fuel Consumption (millions) % 2.7% 3.2% 3.6% 4.3% 5.1% 5.8% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 7.8% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2 2% 1 1% F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Hybrid (Mild + Full) Plug-in (PHEV) Pure Electric (PEV) Fuel Cell (FCV) Market Share (R-Axis) 0% Source: Autofacts 2016 Q2 Forecast Release *Includes mild & full hybrid 5

6 1 North American Outlook North American Outlook 6

7 North American Outlook U.S. Sales Outlook Downturn on the horizon After record sales volume in 2015, sales look to be primed for another historic year in However, this is expected to be the high water mark for the remainder of the decade YTD Sales Performance TOTAL SALES LIGHT TRUCK Light Vehicle Sales Forecast (millions) % +8.4% PASSENGER CAR ALTERNATIVE FUEL (7.7%) (11.2%) 2 - Source: Autofacts 2016 Q2 Forecast Release 7

8 1 North American Outlook Mexican assembly is booming A combination of capacity expansion at existing facilities and investment in new plants is expected to result in significant assembly growth in Mexico, driven by record vehicle demand and low manufacturing costs. Company Plant 2015 Assembly 2022 Assembly FCA Saltillo 275, ,208 FCA Toluca 224, ,484 Ford Cuautitlan 105, ,879 Ford Hermosillo 328, ,640 GM Ramos Arizpe 139, ,073 GM San Luis Potosi 171, ,459 GM Silao 378, ,509 Honda Celaya 144, ,109 Honda El Salto 63,126 50,243 Mazda Salamanca 207, ,125 Nissan Aguascalientes 1 460, ,227 Nissan Aguascalientes 2 140, , Assembly 3.4m Company Plant SOP 2022 Assembly BMW San Luis Potosi ,753 COMPAS* Aguascalientes ,677 Ford San Luis Potosi ,740 Hyundai Monterrey ,503 Toyota Guanajuato ,645 VW San Jose Chiapa ,645 New Plants +1.4m TOTAL 1,409,963 Nissan Cuernavaca 174, ,403 Toyota Tijuana 82,324 83,622 VW Puebla 457, ,959 TOTAL 3,354,107 3,657,826 Existing Plants +303k 2022 Assembly 5.1m +51% Source: Autofacts 2016 Q2 Forecast Release *COMPAS = Cooperation Manufacturing Plant Aguascalientes 8

9 North American Outlook What's causing the shift Wages? Not surprisingly the factor that most seems to be driving the shift in North American assembly is wages. Mexico has a clear advantage on this front, while Canada has lost its small edge. Average Hourly Earning: Motor Vehicle Mfg (US dollars) $35 $30 $34 $28 Average Hourly Earning: Motor Vehicle Parts Mfg (US dollars) $35 $30 $25 $25 $22 $20 $15 $20 $15 $20 $10 $6 $10 $5 $5 $2 $0 $0 US Canada Mexico US Canada Mexico Source: BLS, Statistics Canada, INEGI, Autofacts Analysis 9

10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 1 North American Outlook Build where you sell? While the localization of product will continue to accelerate, Japanese OEMs are poised to take advantage of the Trans- Pacific Partnership (TPP) while a growing number of automakers see China as the next great vehicle export hub. Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Chinese Imports *Reduction in import tariffs *Easing of rule of origin requirements *Favorable Forex for Japanese companies Global: Indexed Japanese Yen ( ) vs. US Dollar ($) February 2011 February % Weaker 40% 20% 0% (20%) Stronger Source: OANDA, Autofacts Analysis 10

11 1 North American Outlook Import substitution, growth in exports expected to drive assembly topline Localization of product in Mexico and the U.S., combined with growing CUV / SUV exports are the main drivers of a nearly 15% forecasted increase in regional assembly from 2015 to North America Light Vehicle Assembly (millions) F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Assembly Excess Capacity Utilization (R-Axis) 95% 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% 89% 88% 87% 86% 85% 84% 83% 82% 81% Source: Autofacts 2016 Q2 Forecast Release 11

12 2 In the pipeline In the pipeline 12

13 Buick Lincoln Chrysler Cadillac Ram Dodge Tesla GMC Jeep Chevrolet Ford Alfa Romeo Smart Jaguar Fiat Volvo Porsche Land Rover Mini Volkswagen Audi Mercedes- BMW Scion Mitsubishi Mazda Infiniti Acura Kia Hyundai Subaru Nissan Honda Lexus Toyota 2 In the pipeline Autofacts U.S. Dealership Study Sales per franchises vary widely, with traditional domestic brands generally averaging significantly less than their foreign counterparts due to a greater amount of franchises, particularly in smaller population centers. US: New Light Vehicle Sales per Franchise by Brand ,750 1, ,250 1, Source: Automotive News, Wards Automotive, Autofacts Analysis 13

14 2 In the pipeline Autofacts U.S. Dealership Study The dealership model is under increasing pressure from non-traditional forces, including alternative mobility and purchasing models. Adapting to changing demand trends will be key to survival. 14

15 2 In the pipeline Autofacts U.S. Luxury Vehicle Analysis One of the primary reasons for the success of the top 3 brands is due to their wide range of offerings, covering nearly every one of the 14 competitive segments. Luxury Brand Entrants by Segment Current vs. Future Lineup Brand BMW Cadillac Acura Nameplate(s) 1-Series 2-Series CT2 BMW Lexus Photo Mercedes Audi Acura Base MSRP (US$) $20,250 $32,100 $30,000 Future Product Cadillac Infiniti Lincoln Vehicle dimensions (L x W) 434 x x 178 Indicates that a production version TBD of the product has not yet been shown. JLR Porsche RWD RWD/AWD FWD/AWD Tesla Genesis Product offering for 2016CY Future product ( CY) No product forecasted On-sale date TBD AVAILABLE Q Source: Company Reports, Autofacts Analysis 15

16 2 In the pipeline Autofacts U.S. Luxury Vehicle Analysis CUVs are expected to see the largest jump in the luxury vehicle segment, thanks to several new entrants and continued growth in consumer demand. Total CUV sales are forecasted to increase by 38% from 2015 to Sales by Segment 2015 vs (thousands) % % % +26% Source: Autofacts Analysis 2015 Sales 2022 Sales Forecast 16

17 2 In the pipeline Autofacts Dedicated to the Automotive Industry Autofacts The information contained in this report represents the culmination of proprietary research conducted by Autofacts, an analytical group within PwC. All material contained in this report was developed independently of any PwC client relationship and does not represent the firm s view as an auditor to any legal business entity. While every effort has been made to ensure the quality of information provided, no representation or warranty of any kind (whether expressed or implied) is given by PwC as to the accuracy, completeness or fitness for any purpose of this document. As such, this document does not constitute the giving of investment advice, nor a part of any advice on investment decisions. Accordingly, regardless of the form of action, whether in contract, tort or otherwise, and to the extent permitted by applicable law, PwC accepts no liability of any kind and disclaims all responsibility for the consequences of any person acting or refraining from acting in reliance on this document PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a Delaware limited liability partnership) or, as the context requires, other member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Ltd., each of which is a separate and independent legal entity. Autofacts is a globally registered trademark of PwC. 17