Autofacts Industry Update

Transcription

1 Autofacts Industry Update September 10, 2015

2 1 Global Global 2

3 1 Global Regional outlook The lion s share of the new volume is expected to come from developing markets, and in particular developing Asia- Pacific, providing nearly 65% CTG** from Regional Contribution to Growth* (percentage share) Americas Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) Asia-Pacific North America South America European Union Eastern Europe Middle East & Africa Developing Asia-Pacific Developed Asia-Pacific 13.6% 5.5% 10.4% 6.0% 4.5% 64.8% -4.8% Regional Topline Comparison & Volume Change 2014 vs m +1.2m +2.3m +1.3m +1.0m +14.4m -1.0m m 5.0m 19.0m 4.6m 2.9m 44.4m 12.4m 17.1m 3.8m 16.7m 3.3m 1.9m 30.0m 13.4m Source: Autofacts 2015 Q3 Forecast Release *Region size not to scale **CTG = Contribution to Growth 3

4 1 Global Alliance group outlook Despite calls for industry consolidation, particularly in China, the global automotive market is expected to remain highly diversified throughout the forecast window, with little to no M&A activity at the automaker level. 53 Alliance Groups (24%) 56 Alliance Groups (22%) Source: Autofacts 2015 Q3 Forecast Release *RN = Renault-Nissan **FCA = Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles 4

5 1 Global Supplier consolidation on the rise 2015 will likely be a record year for automotive supplier deal value. PwC is forecasting $48b in closed transactions for the full year. Source: Thompson Reuters, CapIQ, Other publicly available sources, Strategy& Analysis 5

6 1 Global Powertrain outlook A myriad of technologies will be used as the industry balances consumer demands with global emission standards. Market share for alternative propulsion vehicles is expected to reach 6.7% in 2021, more than doubling from 2014 (3.3%). 2021F 2014 Source: Autofacts 2015 Q3 Forecast Release *Includes mild & full hybrid 6

7 North America 7

8 Increased sales expected, but at a slower rate While a record sixth consecutive year of sales growth is all but certain for the U.S. in 2015, a slowdown and eventual downturn is on the horizon. Light Vehicle Sales by Country (millions) F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F US Canada Mexico Source: Autofacts 2015 Q4 Preliminary Forecast Release 8

9 Low rates continue to drive sales Auto interest rates remain near their historic low levels, thanks in part to aggressive measures taken by the Federal Reserve, however with the Fed likely to raise rates this year, the good times aren t likely to last for consumers. Source: Federal Reserve G20 Report, Autofacts Analysis, Oxford Economics 9

10 Industry nearing a tipping point Consumers are likely to feel increased upward pressure on the amount financed as average selling prices continue to rise, helping to drive the total amount of outstanding auto loan debt to record highs. Source: NADA, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 10

11 What goes around, comes around While the U.S. auto industry is enjoying one of its most successful periods in recent memory, history also reminds us that the good times can t last forever. U.S. Economic Recessions Source: Autofacts 2015 Q3 Forecast Release 11

12 Import share continues to erode Driven by increased localization of assembly within the region, non-nafta U.S. light vehicle imports are expected to see a YoY (year-over-year) decline for the 5 th time in the last 6 years. Source: Ward s Automotive Reports, Autofacts Analysis *Non-NAFTA **Thru August

13 Big 3 import markets still dominating While Japan, South Korea and Germany still represented the countries of origin for over 90% of vehicle imports in 2014, the drop in import volume for those OEMs who localized assembly is telling of the direction the industry is heading. Source: Ward s Automotive Reports, Autofacts Analysis *Includes Audi & Porsche **Includes Kia 13

14 US imports poised for a sharp decline Taking into account both announced and forecasted capacity expansion through 2021, Autofacts estimates that US imports could see a decline of nearly 50% from current levels. North America Capacity Expansion by Company m *.84 = 2.23m 2.23m *.83 (US regional sales share) = 1.85m Source: Company Announcements, Autofacts 2015 Q3 Forecast Release, Autofacts Analysis 1 Includes Kia 2 COMPAS = Cooperation Manufacturing Plant Aguascalientes) 3 Includes Audi & Porsche 14

15 Steady growth anticipated for exports Increased global demand for large CUVs and SUVs, many of which are sole sourced from North America, are expected to result in export growth for the foreseeable future. Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles WA Plant: Jefferson North (Detroit, MI) MT Vehicles Produced: Jeep Grand Cherokee, Dodge Durango ND 2014 Assembly: 364,000 OR Non-NAFTA Export Estimate: 93,000 (26%) ID SD MN WI MI NY VT NH ME Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles Plant: Toledo Supplier Park (Toledo, OH) Vehicles Produced: Jeep Wrangler / Wrangler Unlimited 2014 Assembly: 235,000 Non-NAFTA Export Estimate: 34,000 (14%) MA WY General Motors NV Company NE Plant: Arlington (Arlington, UT TX) CO Vehicles Produced: Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC SUVs CA 2014 Assembly: 300,000 Non-NAFTA Export Estimate: 33,000 (11%) AZ NM KS OK IA MO AR IL MI OH IN KY TN WV SC VA PA NC DE MD NJ RI CT BMW Plant: Spartanburg (Spartanburg, SC) Vehicles Produced: X3, X4, X5, X Assembly: 344,000 Non-NAFTA Export Estimate: 241,000 (70%) MS AL GA Daimler AG TX LA FL Plant: Tuscaloosa (Vance, AL) Vehicles Produced: C, GLS, GLE-Class 2014 Assembly: 230,000 Non-NAFTA Export Estimate: 122,000 (53%) Source: Autofacts 2015 Q3 Forecast Release, Autofacts Analysis 15

16 North America forecasted to remain highly utilized OEMs have shown considerable restraint in over-expanding their assembly footprint in the North American region, leading to a highly utilized market. Source: Autofacts 2015 Q3 Forecast Release 16

17 Thank you! Autofacts. Anytime. Anywhere. The information contained in this report represents the culmination of proprietary research conducted by Autofacts, an analytical group within the PwC Data Analytics Organisation. All material contained in this report was developed independently of any PwC client relationship and does not represent the firm s view as an auditor to any legal business entity. While every effort has been made to ensure the quality of information provided, no representation or warranty of any kind (whether expressed or implied) is given by PwC as to the accuracy, completeness or fitness for any purpose of this document. As such, this document does not constitute the giving of investment advice, nor a part of any advice on investment decisions. Accordingly, regardless of the form of action, whether in contract, tort or otherwise, and to the extent permitted by applicable law, PwC accepts no liability of any kind and disclaims all responsibility for the consequences of any person acting or refraining from acting in reliance on this document PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a Delaware limited liability partnership) or, as the context requires, other member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Ltd., each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.