PwC Autofacts Qualidade Automotiva - IQA September 2013

Transcription

1 PwC Autofacts Qualidade Automotiva - IQA September 2013

2 1 Global Global 2

3 1 Global Topline assembly outlook Global assembly will continue its solid climb throughout the forecast window, thanks in large part to emerging market growth. Increased production flexibility and other advances in manufacturing are also expected to result in increasing utilisation ratesat automotive manufacturing facilities. Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook (millions) % 90% 80% 70% 60% 104.7m 2019 Assembly Forecast 4.1% CAGR* 80 50% % 30% 20% 10% 0% 85.7% CTG** by Emerging Markets 25.5m 2019 Excess Capacity Assembly Volume Excess Capacity Utilisation (R-Axis) Source: Autofacts 2013 Q3 Data Release *CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate **CTG = Contribution to Growth 4

4 1 Global Regional contribution to growth A majority of assembly growth will reside in the developing Asia-Pacific, driven by China, India and ASEAN*. Both North America and Europe are forecasted to see moderate growth as economic conditions stabilise. Meanwhile, developed Asia-Pacific is expectedto see a production decline throughout the forecast window as volume is shifted to other territories. Regional Contribution to Growth (percentage share) 6.5% East Europe 11.4% European Union 12.3% North America 62.2% Developing Asia-Pacific 8.1% South America -4.1% Developed Asia-Pacific 3.6% Middle East & Africa Source: ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations 5

5 2 North America North America 6

6 2 North America Searching for a natural rate of demand After a decade of supercharged sales due to cheap credit, heavy incentives, and swollen dealer lots the auto industry had a major hangover. As the US market dusts itself post recession, the question is where will sales level off at. Autofacts anticipates arange of 16 to 17 million units for the remainder of the decade as US sales stay largely reflective of true market demand. US: Monthly Light Vehicle SAAR* June 2003 June 2013 (millions) 22 US: Annual Light Vehicle Sales (f) (millions) ,6 16,9 16,9 16, ,1 15, , , , , , Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun (f) Source: Automotive News, Autofacts Analysis *SAAR = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 7

7 2 North America Downward shift After creating and developing a massive market for SUVs and pickups driven by cheap fuel, American consumers are finally starting to discover the benefits of smaller vehicles. Bodystyles such as hatchbacks, that just a few years seemed like they would never sell, are starting to become popular as lingering high gas prices and rising MSRPs push consumers to downsize. US: Light Vehicle Sales by Segment YTD 100% US: Light Vehicle Segmentation Market Share 2012 YTD vs YTD 30% 90% 80% 70% 25% 20% 19,9% 19,7% 22,4% 21,1% 23,1% 24,9% 60% 50% 15% 12,5% 13,3% 40% 30% 20% 10% 5% 7,6% 7,5% 7,0% 6,5% 5,9% 5,3% 10% 1,8% 1,6% 0% Small Car Mid Car Large Car Luxury Car CUV SUV Van Pickup Source: Automotive News, Autofacts Analysis 0% Sm Car Mid Car Lg Car Lux Car CUV SUV Van Pickup

8 2 North America Make it where you sell it As Detroit 3 market share has continued to shrink over time their assembly footprint has, not surprisingly, fallen as well. New Domestic OEMs have seen a corresponding increase in market share, however in an effort to reduce their currency risk exposure and protect profits have begun to focus on further localizing assembly. Assembly & US Sales Market Share by OEM Type (millions) 18 75% 16 70% 14 65% 12 60% 10 55% 8 50% 6 45% 4 40% 2 35% D3 Assembly New Dom. Assembly D3 Market Share (R-Axis) New Dom. Market Share (R-Axis) 30% Source: Autofacts 2013 Q3 Data Release, Automotive News 9

9 4 South America South America 10

10 4 South America Steady, promising growth in production The dip in regional assembly seen in 2012 is turning out to be short lived with ~8% growth anticipated for 2013, with both Brazil and Argentina posting double-digit growth percentages compared to Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook (millions) 9 90% 8 85% 7 80% 6 75% 5 70% 4 65% 3 60% 2 55% 1 50% 0 45% Assembly Volume Excess Capacity Utilisation (R-Axis) Source: Autofacts 2013 Q3 Data Release 11

11 5 European Union European Union 12

12 5 European Union European Union Assembly Capacity reduction now taking place A number of capacity closures, at Ford, GM and PSA are now taking place. This, combined with some localisation of production, sourcing of global product from the EU and an improvement in EU demand should result in a noticeable increase in utilisation, with Autofacts forecasting the region as a whole to exceed 80% by Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook (millions) 24 90% 20 85% 16 80% 12 75% 8 70% 4 65% 0 60% Assembly Volume Excess Capacity Utilisation (R-Axis) Source: Autofacts 2013 Q3 Data Release 13

13 Who with whom? The carousel keeps turning The EU market is characterised by a high level of cross JVs at different levels of the LCV sector. However, alliances are changing and PSA, GM, Daimler and Renault are at the centre of these shifts. A lot of questions remain unanswered but it appears as though VW, Fiat and Ford are pursuing a global stand alone strategy. Speculative: Complete break up of current alliances // US Expansion Production of Vauxhall Combo (re-badge Fiat Doblo) in Turkey. Break up possible because of GM-PSA JV Production of Fiat Ducato, Peugeot Boxer, Citroen Relay in Sevel Sud, Italy. Continued > 2019? Production of Citroen Jumpy, Fiat Scudo and Peugeot Expert in Sevel Nord, France, until end of 2016 Speculative: PSA based GM product for North America // Nextgen (re-badged Berlingo) Combo Production of Citroen Nemo, Peugeot Bipper and Fiat Fiorino in Bursa, Turkey. Could end: Mid decade Production of Toyota ProAce (currently a re-badged Jumpy/Expert) in Sevel Nord, France. Next-gen Toyota / PSA LCVs could arrive 2017 and will be jointly developed by both companies US localisation of Transit in 2013 / Transit Connect (later) Production of Renault Trafic, and Opel Vivaro in Luton, UK and Nissan Primastar in Barcelona, Spain. Production of Renault Master, Nissan NV400 and Opel Movano in Batilly, France. Source: Company announcements, Autofacts Analysis Production of Renault Kangoo/ Mercedes Citan in Mauberge, France.? Expansion of JV on large LCVs after break up of Daimler-VW alliance? Production of body for VW Crafter and Mercedes Sprinter in Ludwigsfelde, Germany. Possible: Stand alone development of next-gen Crafter

14 6 East Europe East Europe 14

15 6 East Europe East Europe - Pre-crisis level exceeded and new record set in 2012 Autofacts expects growth in the Russian market to start slowing down this year, while other East European markets, including Turkey and other CIS countries are expected to experience stronger growth. Total East Europe output is forecasted to grow 2% to almost 3.55m units in 2013 and continue to grow to 5.15m units by Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook (millions) 8 80% 7 70% 6 60% 5 50% 4 40% 3 30% 2 20% 1 10% 0 0% Assembly Volume Excess Capacity Utilisation (R-Axis) Source: Autofacts 2013 Q3 Data Release 15

16 9 Developed Asia-Pacific Developed Asia-Pacific 16

17 9 Developed Asia-Pacific Developed Asia - Assembly transfers to overseas are expected to continue Although the yen has weakened somewhat, recently Japanese automakers are expected to localize more assembly volumes overseas in order to avoid risks of currency fluctuations. Therefore, excess capacity should be a major issue in Japan. On the other hand, South Korea is expected to maintain export volumes as South Korean brands have become very popular globally in recent years. Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook (millions) % 18 90% 16 80% 14 70% 12 60% 10 50% 8 40% 6 30% 4 20% 2 10% 0 0% Assembly Volume Excess Capacity Utilisation (R-Axis) Source: Autofacts 2013 Q3 Data Release 17

18 10 Developing Asia-Pacific Developing Asia-Pacific 18

19 10 Developing Asia-Pacific China - Downward adjustment Compared to last release, we made downward adjustments to the outlook of the Chinese automotive market. As the market growth has been through a significant slowdown, excess capacity remains a key issue that s threatening some vehicle assemblers. On the other hand, top tier players are still expanding their footprints without neglecting the cruel fact. China: Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook (millions) 35 90% 30 80% 70% 25 60% 20 50% 15 40% 10 30% 20% 5 10% 0 0% Assembly Volume Excess Capacity Utilisation (R-Axis) Source: Autofacts 2013 Q3 Data Release 19

20 10 Developing Asia-Pacific India - To keep pace with slowing demand OEMs scale back production After more than 10 years of steady output growth, India s production is forecast to fall by around 3% to 3.33 million units for the current year. Accordingly, excess capacity is expected to reach a record high of 2.5 million in the current year making capacity utilisation fall to 57%, representing the lowest level for more than a decade. India : Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook (millions) 9 90% 8 80% 7 70% 6 60% 5 50% 4 40% 3 30% 2 20% 1 10% 0 0% Assembly Volume Excess Capacity Utilisation (R-Axis) Source: Autofacts 2013 Q3 Data Release, ET, D&B 20

21 10 Developing Asia-Pacific Low vehicle density and sales per capita could drive demand in long-term Although demand for vehicles in India increased over the past years, motorisation in India in terms of vehicle penetration and sales per capita is still among the lowest compared to other markets. However, low car penetration coupled with a huge population and a growing middle class with increasing purchasing power makes India still a high potential growth market major OEMs to keep investing in. Vehicles per 1000 Vehicles (PC+CV) per Capita & Vehicles Density 2011 (per 1000 people) India Indonesia New EU China Brazil Russia Japan EU15 South Korea Source: Autofacts Analysis, VDA Vehicle sales per 1000 Bubble size refers to the countries populations USA Key Messages With a vehicle density per 1000 population at around 22.5 and vehicle sales per 1000 at 2.73, India falls far behind other emerging markets. Vehicle sales remains low largely due to relatively low per capita income levels combined with high acquisition costs and increasing fuel prices. OEMs brought a range of cheap, smaller and more fuel efficient cars to the market to make vehicles more affordable to local customers, but also to use India as an export hub for small car manufacturing. To assemble these low-margin vehicles profitably, car manufacturers keep investing in local production to cut costs and ramp up volumes with exports seen as an opportunity to expand the volume base and create scale. Increasing investment in low cost vehicles in the $3k-$5k range to compete with Maruti and Hyundai, which dominate the domestic low-cost, entry-level segment, could help stimulate vehicle demand mid-term. This includes Nissan resurrecting Datsun as its low cost brand in 2014 in India. 21

22 1 Global Conclusion While the world waits for the European Union to turn the corner, moderate growth in some regions is being offset by erosion in others, keeping global industry growth effectively neutral for Despite these mixed signals, R&D remains strong as the industry approaches a new era of innovation and collaboration. EU market scraping the bottom US sales rebound continues The EU market fell by 9.8% in the first quarter and by 3.7% in the second quarter. With a marginal improvement in most countries economies forecast for the second half, combined with improving consumer sentiment, Autofacts forecast that the new car market should start returning to growth by the fourth quarter. Clearly risks remain, with political uncertainty increasing in some countries, but Autofacts predict that 2013 will mark the low point, with a 4% decline, with initially slow growth following. US Sales (as well as North American assembly) have continued to show strong growth through the first half of 2013, buoyed by a combination of favourable interest rates, improving economic conditions and consumer sentiment, and the timely launch of several high profile programs. US sales are forecasted to hit 15.5m units this year, while North American assembly is expected to reach 16.1m units. Assembly declines in Developed AP Ford s recent announcement to shutter their Australian assembly operations by the end of 2016, GM s decision to move several high volume programs from South Korea to Europe and a continued trend of assembly localisation from Japanese OEMs to current export markets are expected to contribute to an assembly decline for the region, equating to a -4.1% global contribution to growth (CTG) from Industry collaboration An increasing amount of strategic partnerships and alliances to develop next-gen technologies (as well as improve existing ones) will drive premiums down while simultaneously improving various performance metrics...be it safety, fuel efficiency, telematics, etc. While some technologies remain several years away from market introduction, industry investments and collaboration are already well under way. Source: Autofacts 2013 Q3 Data Release 22

23 Prepared by: Autofacts. Anytime. Anywhere. The information contained in this report represents the culmination of proprietary research conducted by Autofacts, an analytical group within the PwC Research & Analysis Organisation. All material contained in this report was developed independently of any PwC client relationship and does not represent the firm s view as an auditor to any legal business entity. While every effort has been made to ensure the quality of information provided, no representation or warranty of any kind (whether expressed or implied) is given by PwC as to the accuracy, completeness or fitness for any purpose of this document. As such, this document does not constitute the giving of investment advice, nor a part of any advice on investment decisions. Accordingly, regardless of the form of action, whether in contract, tort or otherwise, and to the extent permitted by applicable law, PwC accepts no liability of any kind and disclaims all responsibility for the consequences of any person acting or refraining from acting in reliance on this document PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a Delaware limited liability partnership) or, as the context requires, other member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Ltd., each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.

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