Market Outlook. David Reinbott.
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1 Market Outlook David Reinbott Agriculture Business Specialist P.O. Box 187 Benton, MO (573)
2 Trending Issues Volatile World Uncertain Chinese Growth Rattled Emerging Markets Burdensome Crop Supplies Weakening Livestock Markets El Nino Weather Threat Lower Incomes Funds Existing Ag Markets Strong U.S. Dollar $
3 Trending Issues Jan 12 Report bigger crop World Production Increasing World Demand Steady World Ending Stocks Increasing Quarterly Stocks Feed?
4 USDA U.S. Yield (bu/acre) USDA Jan Average Trade Est. Range of Trade Est. USDA Dec Corn Soybeans Wheat USDA U.S. Production (bln bu) USDA Jan Average Trade Est. Range of Trade Est. USDA Dec Corn Soybeans Wheat
5 USDA U.S. Production (bln bu) USDA Jan Average Trade Est. Range of Trade Est. USDA Dec Corn Soybeans Wheat USDA U.S. Grain Carryout (bln bu) USDA Jan Average Trade Est. Range of Trade Est. USDA Dec Corn Soybeans Wheat
6 U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks (bln bu) USDA Jan 2016 Average Trade Est. Range of Trade Est. USDA Jan 2015 Corn Soybeans Wheat USDA World Grain Carryout (million tons) USDA Jan Average Trade Est. Range of Trade Est. USDA Dec Corn Soybeans Wheat
7 David Reinbott January 11, 2016
8
9 U.S. Dollar Index - Monthly
10 Brazilian Real - Monthly
11
12
13
14 David Reinbott Janaury 11, 2016
15 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Thousand Contacts Corn Managed Money (Spec Funds) Net Position Net Position
16 Million Bu. 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 U.S. Corn Production Production
17 Mill. Bu. 2,500 2,250 United States Corn Exports Exports 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,
18 Mill. Bu. 6,000 5,750 5,500 5,250 5,000 4,750 4,500 4,250 4,000 3,750 3,500 3,250 3,000 2,750 2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, Corn Ethanol Ethanol 3,709 3,049 2,119 1,603 1,168 1, ,019 5,124 5,000 5,207 5,175 4,591 4,
19 Mill. Bu. 6,500 6,250 6,000 5,750 5,500 5,250 5,000 4,750 4,500 4,250 4,000 3,750 3,500 3,250 3,000 2,750 2,500 2,250 2,000 United States Corn Feed FEED
20 Million Bushels 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, United States Corn Ending Stocks Ending Stocks
21 1997/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /16 Million Metric Tons South America Corn Production Production
22 $ per bu. $7.50 $7.00 $6.50 $6.00 $5.50 $5.00 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 U.S. Average Farm Price of Corn Farm Price
23 mmt Foreign Coarse Grain Production
24 milion Grain Consuming Animal Units
25 Corn Balance Sheet Planted Acreage (mil.) Harvested Acreage Yield (bu/ac.) Production (mil. bu.) 13,654 13,611 Beginning stocks 1,731 1,785 Imports Total 15,415 15,426 Export (mil. bu.) 1,750 1,800 Feed and residual 5,300 5,350 Ethanol 5,200 5,250 Other Processing 1,380 1,400 Total 13,630 13,800 Ending stocks 1,785 1,626 Average price $3.65 $3.85
26 Ending Stocks 1,785 1,626 Stocks/Use 13.1% 11.8% Ave Farm Price $3.65 $3.85 Corn Balance Sheet 2015/ /17 Planted Acres Harvested Acres Yield Beginning Stocks 1,731 1,785 Production 13,654 13,611 Imports Total supply 15,415 15,426 Feed & Residual 5,300 5,350 Food, Seed, & Industrial 6,580 6,650 Ethanol 5,200 5,250 Total Domestic 11,880 12,000 Export 1,750 1,800 Total use 13,630 13,800
27 U.S. New Crop Balance Sheets - 1 Million 1 Million 1 Million Corn Balance Sheet less acres less acres less acres U.S. Corn: Supply & Use New Crop New Crop New Crop 2016/ / /17 Planted Acres Harvested Acres Yield Ending Stocks 1,831 1,423 1,179 Stocks/Use 13.3% 10.3% 8.6% Ave Farm Price $3.65 $4.20 $4.65
28 000 acres U.S. Corn Acreage PLANTED HARVEST
29 Corn Yield Yield Trendline
30 March 2016 Corn Futures
31 Weekly Corn Futures $4.40 $4.00 $3.46 $3.18
32 David Reinbott Janaury 11, 2016
33 Mill. Bu. 4,500 United States Soybeans Production 4,000 Production 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,
34 Mill. Bu. 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, United States Soybeans Crush CRUSH
35 Mill. Bu. 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, United States Soybeans Exports Exports
36 Million Bushels Soybean Stocks Ending Stocks
37 $ per bu. $16.00 $15.00 $14.00 United States Average Farm Price of Soybeans Farm Price $13.00 $12.00 $11.00 $10.00 $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00
38 1997/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /16 Million Metric Tons Soybean Imports China Soybean Imports
39 1997/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /16 Million Metric Tons South America Soybean Production South America
40 mil. lbs. Soybean Oil Used for Biodiesel
41 mil.bu. South American Soybean Production
42 mil. bu. Chinese Soybean Imports
43 Soybean Balance Sheet Average price $8.90 $ Planted Acreage (mil.) Harvested Acreage Yield (bu./ac.) Production (mil. bu.) 3,981 3,808 Beginning stocks Imports Total 4,203 4,303 Crush (mil. bu.) 1,890 1,925 Export 1,715 1,775 Seed and feed Total 3,738 3,830 Ending stocks
44 Soybean Balance Sheet 2015/ /17 Planted Acres Harvested Acres Yield Beginning Stocks Production 3,981 3,808 Imports Total supply 4,202 4,302 Crush 1,890 1,925 Seed & Feed Export 1,715 1,775 Total use 3,738 3,830 Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 12.4% 12.3% Ave Farm Price $8.90 $8.90
45 U.S. Soybean: Supply & Use New Crop New Crop New Crop 2016/ / /17 Planted Acres Harvested Acres Yield Total use 3,797 3,797 3,797 Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 18.2% 12.6% 6.0% Ave Farm Price $8.00 $8.50 $10.00
46 000 acres U.S. Soybean Acreage PLANTED HARVEST
47 Soybean Yields Yield Linear (Yield)
48 Weekly Soybean Futures $10.50 $8.55
49 March 2016 Soybean Futures
50 David Reinbott November 23, 2015
51 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Thousand Contracts $/Bu Wheat Managed Money (Spec Funds) Net Position Net Position
52 Monthly Wheat Futures
53 Wheat Balance Sheet 2015/ /17 Planted Acres Harvested Acres Yield Beginning Stocks Production 2,052 2,061 Imports Total supply 2,930 3,098 Feed Food, Seed, & Industrial 1,039 1,053 Total Domestic 1,219 1,260 Export Total use 2,019 2,174 Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 45.1% 42.5% Ave Farm Price $5.00 $4.96
54 Nov. WASDE 2014/15 Nov. WASDE 2015/16 Nov. FAPRI 2015/16 Nov. FAPRI 2016/17 Area planted (mil. a.) Area harvested (mil. a.) Yield (bu./a.) Supply & use (mil. bu.) Production 2,026 2,052 2,052 2,063 Feed & residual use Food use Exports Ending stocks Price per bushel $5.99 $4.80-$5.20 $4.98 $4.96
55 Million Bushels Wheat Stocks and Ending Stocks to Use 1,050 1, Ending Stocks
56
57 David Reinbott November 23, 2015
58 December 2016 Corn Futures
59 Nov 2016 Soybean Futures
60 July 2016 Wheat Futures
61 David Reinbott January 11, 2016
62
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64 Questions? Comments? David Reinbott (573)
Crop Market Outlook 8/22/2017
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