Latin American Locations - Comparison Current market prospects for the automotive industry in Latin America September 24, 2009
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1 Latin American Locations - Comparison Current market prospects for the automotive industry in Latin America September 24, 2009 Speaker: Walter Erke Vice President Marketing and Public Relations ZF Sachs AG
2 ZF Company Structure ZF Friedrichshafen AG Shareholders: 93.8% Zeppelin Foundation, Friedrichshafen /6.2% Dr. Jürgen and Irmgard Ulderup Foundation, Lemförde Corporate Headquarters and Corporate Research & Development, Friedrichshafen Divisions Car Driveline Technology Car Chassis Technology Commercial Vehicle and Special Driveline Technology Off-Road Driveline Technology and Axle Systems Powertrain and Suspension Components Business Units Rubber-Metal Technology Marine Propulsion Systems Aviation Technology Electronic Components Services Joint Venture Steering Technology ZF Lenksysteme GmbH Development Site Schweinfurt Headquarter Friedrichshafen Development Site Dielingen VMK-1 / 2
3 ZF An Overview 2008 Key Figures Sales 12,501 million Employees (annual average) 61,156 Capital expenditure 939 million R&D expenditures 697 million Net profit after taxes 434 million 125 Production Companies in 26 countries, 6 Main Development Locations, 41 After Market Trading Companies and Sales and Service Centers, 2 Representative and 11 Marketing Offices, more than 650 Service Partners worldwide. VMK-1 / 3
4 ZF in Latin America 2008 Key Figures Sales - Mexico: million - Brazil: million - Argentina: 38.8 million Employees - Mexico: 2,999 - Brazil: 4,701 - Argentina: 460 Capital - Mexico: 7.7 million Expenditure - Brazil: 49.3 million - Argentina: 1.1 million Production Plants Mexico: Toluca, Juarez, El Salto, Ramos Arizpe Application Site in El Salto (Guadalajara) Production Plants Brazil: Araraquara, São Bernardo do Campo, Sorocaba,Belo Horizonte Application Site in São Bernardo do Campo Production Plants Argentina: San Francisco Latin America North America VMK-1 / 4
5 ZF in Mexico Mexico Company ZF Sachs Suspension Mexico S.A. de C.V. ( El Salto ) ZF Electronics de Mexico S. de R.L. de C.V. ( Juarez ) ZF Sachs Automotive Mexico S.A. de C.V. ( Ramos Arizpe ) ZF Lemförder Sistemas Automotrices S.A. de C.V. ( Toluca ) Products Chassis components for cars and CVs Electronic components for cars and CVs Driveline components for cars and CVs Chassis components for cars ZF Sachs Suspension Mexico S.A. de C.V. ( El Salto ) ZF Lemforder Sistemas Automotrices ( Toluca ) VMK-1 / 5
6 ZF in Brazil Brazil Company ZF do Brasil Ltda. ( Araraquara ) ZF do Brasil Ltda. ( São Bernardo do Campo ) ZF do Brasil Ltda. ( Sorocaba ) ZF Sistemas de Direção Ltda. ( Belo Horizonte ) ZF Sistemas de Direção Ltda. ( Sorocaba ) Products Driveline components for cars and CVs Driveline components for cars and CVs Chassis components for cars and CVs Manual and automatic transmission for CVs Transmissions for off-road vehicles and marine Driveline components for cars and CVs Axles and axle components for off-road machinery Chassis components for cars and CVs Steering columns, steering shafts, cross joints Steering columns, steering shafts, cross joints ZF do Brasil Ltda. ( Sorocaba ) ZF do Brasil Ltda. ( São Bernardo do Campo ) VMK-1 / 6
7 ZF in Argentina Argentina Company ZF Sachs Argentina S.A. ( San Francisco ) Products Chassis components for cars and CVs ZF Sachs Argentina S.A. VMK-1 / 7
8 Growth of LV*-OEM Production Capacities in NAFTA ( ) 2005 installed capacity 19 million / 90 plants closed capacity 5 million / 30 plants temporary closed capacity 0,5 million / 2 plants new installed capacity 2 million / 19 plants Source: Global Insight, CSM, PWC Automotive Insitut and ZF *LV: Light Vehicle = car and van < 6t. VMK-1 / 8
9 2011 estimated capacity 16 million / 79 plants Growth of LV*-OEM Production Capacities in NAFTA ( ) Besides closing of plants in the US and Canada a shifting/ relocation of plants to Mexico can be seen: 2005 cap.: 2,0 m / 14 plants 2011 cap.: 2,6 m / 16 plants Source: Global Insight, CSM, PWC Automotive Insitut and ZF *LV: Light Vehicle = car and van < 6t. VMK-1 / 9
10 Growth of LV / HCV OEM Production in NAFTA (in units) LV: Light Vehicle = car und van < 6t. HCV: Heavy Commercial Vehicle = truck > 6t : + 4,997 ø Growth* 11.3% 14,176 LV 7,062 12,059 HCV : ø Growth 11.5% US & Canada ,580 1,530 2,593 Mexico LV HCV : + 37 ø Growth 10.3% : + 1,063 ø Growth 11.1% Source: ZF Procast, April 2009 VMK-1 / *CAGR=compound annual growth rate
11 Growth of Vehicle Production in Mexico Source: AMIA LV production is currently 41% below the prior year's level (711,357 as per July 09). In July, however, a slight upward trend is visible; (only -25% compared to the same month of the previous year). Reasons for slight recovery: Economic stimulus packages for the automotive sectors in the USA and Mexico, e.g. "Cash for Clunkers" in the USA or liquidity support in Mexico. The production of light trucks (-53%) and medium/heavy trucks (-46%) is clearly in the red as per July compared to the same period of the previous year. In the long run, from 2009 to 2014, ZF expects an compound annual growth rate in production for the LV and HCV segment of 10% to 11%. VMK-1 / 11
12 Production of LV/HCV in 2008 OEM-Shares in Mexico (in 1,000 units) Total Production LV 2008: 2,093,363 Total Production HCV 2008: 77,505 Others Others % 103 5% % 14 18% 9 12% 2 2% 2 2% 30 40% % % % 21 28% Source: ZF Procast, April 2009 VMK-1 / 12
13 Bestseller - Vehicle Model Range in Mexico Most produced Models VW Jetta 281, Ford Fusion Sedan 206, Nissan Tiida 183, Dodge Journey 123, Nissan Sentra 118,588 Most produced Models 2014 (Forecast) 1. VW NCS 250, Nissan Tiida 200, Chevrolet Silverado 200, Ford Fusion Sedan 192, Nissan Micra 165,000 Source: ZF Procast, April 2009 VMK-1 / 13
14 Production/ Industry Structure OEM Production Plants* in Mexico Chrysler: 2 Daimler(Mercedes): 2 Ford: 2 GM: 4 Hino (prospective ): 1 Honda: 1 MAN: 1 Navistar: 1 Renault-Nissan: 2 Paccar: 1 Toyota: 2 VW: 1 * Production plants exclusively manufacture automotive components are not included. Source: Global Insight, Juni 2009 VMK-1 / 14
15 Production/ Industry Structure Production Plants Top World-Tier 1 in Mexico Supplier Number of Production Plants Supplier Number of Production Plants Source: Internet presence of particular suppliers VMK-1 / 15
16 Supply Chain in the Automobile Industry in Mexico OEM Tier 1 Subsidiaries (z. B. Visteon/Ford) Domestic Conglomerates (e.g. Condumex, Nemak) Foreign-owned Global Suppliers (e.g. ZF, Delphi) Imported Auto parts Tier 2 Small & Medium Domestic Suppliers Domestic Conglomerates (e. g. Condumex) Imported Auto parts Tier 3 Small & Medium Domestic Suppliers Imported raw materials The majority of Tier 1 suppliers are major global suppliers. Regional automotive suppliers handle just 30% of the demand; the rest is imported. Integration gap of Tier 2 and Tier 3 suppliers because a considerable share of commodities and raw material is also imported from the US (e.g.: 90% of direct material purchases by Delphi Mexico come from the US). VMK-1 / 16
17 Production/ Industry Structure Mexico Characteristics and Particularities Characteristics The Mexican automotive industry is represented with assembly plants (OEM) in 12 federal states and vehicle part and component manufacturers (TIER 1 and 2) in 26 federal states. There are approx. 1,400 authorized automobile dealers in all major cities. The industry has a workforce of approx. 1 million and generates 16% of the industrial GDP. Development Strong slump in demand decline in production (for July compared to same period of previous year) currently -41% LV and -46% Medium/ Heavy Truck (see Chart 11). Essential adaptation of capacities in automobile assembly strong decline for supplier industry. Essential structural alignment due to inappropriate model range (see Chart 18). Continuous capacity transfer by OEMs and suppliers from the US to Mexico. Increase of investments from major foreign corporations (Daimler Truck North America approx. USD 274 million, VW approx. EUR 1 billion, Isuzu). Particularities Highly dependent on exports: 79% (see Chart 19), highly dependent on imports for commodities, material, etc. Small domestic market (e.g. 107 residents/new vehicle; Germany: 25 residents/new vehicle). Dominance of foreign capital (especially from the US and Japan). Essential technology is exclusively imported. VMK-1 / 17
18 percent Production LV by Segments in 2008 Comparison of Mexico vs. Brazil Mexico Brazil Mini/ Small cars Compact class/ Medium class Luxury cars/ Sports cars Vans SUV/ Pickup Source: ZF Procast, April 2009 VMK-1 / 18
19 Asia Vehicle Exports in 2008 Comparison of Mexico vs. Brazil Europe Africa US + Canada Europe Latin America Asia US + Canada Latin America Vehicle exports of Mexico Vehicle exports 2008: 1,661,619 Export quota: 79% Main customers: US and Canada Vehicle exports of Brazil Vehicle exports 2008: 734,538 Export quota: 23% Main customer: Latin America Exports (Jan. July 09): -40% Exports (Jan. July 09): -54% Source: Association of Car Manufacturers in Mexico und Brazil (AMIA und Anfavea) VMK-1 / 19
20 Growth of LV / HCV OEM Production in Brazil (in 1,000 units) LV: Light Vehicle = car and van < 6t. HCV: Heavy Commercial Vehicle = truck > 6t : + 62 ø Growth 6.6% : ø Growth* 5.4% LV HCV ,381 2,665 3, Source: ZF Procast, April 2009 VMK-1 / 20 *CAGR=compound annual growth rate
21 Growth of Vehicle Production in Brazil Source: ANFAVEA LV production is currently 12% below the prior year's level (1,670,302 as per July 09). Overall, a slight upward trend can be seen (only -10% in comparison to June). Reasons for slight recovery: Tax reduction for industrial goods and support for automotive companies from financing banks. With 63,000 vehicles, the production of medium/heavy trucks is currently at -33% (as per July) compared to the same period of the previous year. In the long run, from 2009 to 2014, ZF expects a compound annual growth rate of 5% for the production in the LV segment and 7% in the HCV segment. VMK-1 / 21
22 Production of LV/HCV OEM-Shares in Brazil (in 1,000 units) Total Production LV 2008: 3,016,730 Total Production HCV 2008: 207,072 Others Others 147 5% % % % % % Source: ZF Procast, April 2009 VMK-1 / 22 VW=Scania and VW trucks are included in MAN
23 Bestseller - Vehicle Model Range in Brazil Most produced Models Fiat Palio 247, VW Gol 216, VW Fox 168, Opel Corsa 165, Fiat Uno 156,393 Most produced Models 2014 (Forecast) 1. VW Gol NF 350, Fiat Palio 275, VW Fox 185, Fiat Uno 175, Ford Fiesta 150,000 Source: ZF Procast, April 2009 VMK-1 / 23
24 Production/Industry Structure OEM Production Plants* in Brazil São Paulo (Bundesstaat) * Production plants exclusively manufacture automotive components.. Source: Global Insight, June 2009 VMK-1 / 24 Agrale: 1 Honda: 1 Renault- Daimler: 3 Iveco: 1 Nissan: 1 Fiat: 2 MAN: 1 Volvo: 1 Ford: 3 Mitsubishi: 1 (prospective) Toyota 2 GM: 3 PSA: 1 Chery: 1 Volvo: 1 VW: 4 Hyundai 2
25 Production/Industry Structure Production Plants Top World-Tier 1 in Brazil Supplier Number of Production Plants Supplier Number of Production Plants Source: Internet presence of particular suppliers VMK-1 / 25 3
26 Characteristics With 19 manufacturers producing more than 500 vehicle models, the Brazilian automotive industry is represented in 8 federal states. The automotive industry generated 25% of the industrial GDP. Overall, 1.3 million people work directly in the automotive industry. There is a network of 4,077 automobile dealers. Development For 2009, the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of Brazil, ANFAVEA, expects a production decline by 11.2% to 2.9 million vehicles. Counteraction with economic stimulus programs by the government, tax reduction for industrial goods, and support for automotive companies from financing banks. Moreover, the OEMs have scheduled major investments totaling EUR 7.6 billion by Particularities VMK-1 / 26 Production/ Industry Structure Brazil Characteristics and Particularities Brazil's automotive industry can bank on a strong domestic market (export share of 29%). The automotive industry is supported massively by the government. 80% of cars are "Flex Fuel Engines" which can run flexibly, either on ethanol, gasoline, or a mixture of both. Many OEMs in Brazil have their own, independent automotive development.
27 Growth of LV / HCV Production in Argentina (in 1,000 units) LV: Light Vehicle = car and van < 6t. HCV: Heavy Commercial Vehicle = truck > 6t : + 3 ø Growth 10.2% HCV : ø Growth* 11.8% LV Source: ZF Procast, April 2009 VMK-1 / 27 *CAGR=compound annual growth rate
28 Growth of Vehicle Production in Argentina Source: ADEFA LV production is currently 27% below the prior year's level (237,243 as per July 09). Overall, a slight upward trend can be seen, which is considerably lower than in Mexico or Brazil, though. Reasons for the slower recovery: The measures introduced by the government to provide economic stimulus are not received well. In the long run, from 2009 to 2014, ZF expects an compound annual growth rate of 12% for the production in the LV segment and 10% in the HCV segment. VMK-1 / 28
29 Production of LV/HCV 2008 OEM-Shares in Argentina (in 1,000 units) Total Production LV 2008: 425,909 Total Production HCV 2008: 8,886 Source: ZF Procast, April 2009 VMK-1 / 29
30 Production/Industry Structure OEM Production Plants* in Argentina Daimler(Mercedes): 1 Ford: 1 GM: 2 Honda (prospective): 1 Renault: 1 Toyota: 1 VW: 2 PSA: 1 Fiat: 1 Iveco: 1 Source: Global Insight, June 2009 VMK-1 / 30 Production plants exclusively manufacture automotive components
31 Production/Industry Structure Production Plants Top World-Tier 1 in Argentina Supplier Number of Production Plants Source: Internet presence of particular suppliers VMK-1 / 31 1
32 Characteristics With 10 manufacturers, producing more than 20 basic models, the Argentinean automotive industry is represented mainly in 2 regions (Buenos Aires/Córdoba). Overall, 18,500 people work for the manufacturers. There are approx. 400 automotive suppliers, which employ a total of 62,300 people. Development For 2009, the ADEFA Motor Industries Association expects a drop in sales of 25%. The government wants to stimulate sales by granting low-interest credits for car buyers and motivate car dealers and manufacturers to give discounts. The manufacturers adhere to the planned investments totaling USD 3.5 billion. Particularities A large part of sold cars is imported (approx. 60%). Production/ Industry Structure Argentina Characteristics and Particularities Argentina has the largest fleet of cars that run with compressed natural gas (approx. 19%). There is a relatively high proportion of diesel-driven vehicles (33%). High level of state support for investors by granting tax exemption, wage subsidies, or subsidized energy costs. VMK-1 / 32
33 Thank you very much for your attention! VMK-1 / 33
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