Monthly bulletin. November Monthly bulletin VDMA. Economic and Statistic Affairs

Transcription

1 November 2017 Economic and Statistic Affairs

2 Incoming orders in Germany Mechanical engineering Volume index 2015 = Domestic Foreign month moving average Source: Non-adjusted indices Increase with question marks In September, incoming orders in the mechanical engineering industry remained on a growth course (+12% compared to the previous year, in real terms). Both foreign orders (+13%) and domestic orders (+10%) continued to increase. Although growth in the export markets has stabilized, transactions with domestic customers entailed only slight or even negative growth rates in the last months. Consequently, the increase in orders in the first nine months of the year (+7%) was almost entirely based on foreign orders (+10%). Domestic orders only increased marginally (+2%). Economic and Statistic Affairs Page 2 November 2017

3 Production of German mechanical engineering Volume index 2010= month moving average Non-adjusted indices During the first eight months of the year, production in mechanical engineering exceeded the previous year s level by 3 percent, according to preliminary calculations. This increase underscores the production forecast for 2017 of plus 3 percent in real terms, which was adjusted in June. also expects a growth of 3 percent for the coming year. A deceleration in exports to China and a decline in deliveries to the United Kingdom can be compensated for in 2018 by an increase on the domestic market. The growth rate for exports to the EU partner countries and the USA is generally expected to remain unchanged. Source: Federal Stat. Office Germany, Economic and Statistic Affairs Page 3 November 2017

4 Capacity utilization in German mechanical engineering % of full capacity level of output mean value: %-scatter band* At 87.9 percent, the capacity utilization in October 2017 was above the long-term industry average. The utilization rate has continued to rise since October 2016, after it had stagnated at the bottom end of a stilltolerable level since the end of 2012, with an exception in July of This development is in line with the production curve, which has also displayed an upward tendency since the fall of last year. The absolute low in the period since 2012 was recorded in July 2016 at 83.3 percent, the highest result was 88.0 percent in April Source: ifo-institut,, Macrobond*) 50% of all observations (since 1995) are located within a scatter band of 84.1 to 88.8 %. Economic and Statistic Affairs Page 4 November 2017

5 Employees in German mechanical engineering 1, In many mechanical engineering companies, the training year begins in August. The considerable increase of 7,000 employees is therefore nothing unusual. This mainly applies to the very strong months of June and July. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the growth of 1.8 percent remains the same as in July. In March, there were 6,000 partially unemployed workers, three quarters of which were working on short time due to economic factors * 2017 *) Due to a change in classification, 2016 is not comparable to previous years. Source: Federal Stat. Office Germany, Employees in units with 50+ employees. Economic and Statistic Affairs Page 5 November 2017

6 German machine export Region (relevance*) Changes to previous year in % Jan.-August 2017 June-August 2017 East Asia (15.0) Australia & Oceania (1.2) Latin America (4.3) Other Europe (10.6) North America (11.6) Central & South Asia (2.7) Africa (3.0) Southeast Asia (3.1) Ø Jan.-August 2017: EU-28 (45.6) 6.6% (real 5.4%) Near and Middle East (3.0) Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany, *) Share in total machinery export in %. In August 2017, German machinery exports exceeded the previous year s result by a nominal 8.7 percent. A plus of 6.6 percent can thus be recorded for the first eight months of the year. Exports to China rose by 25.3 percent and once again reached the magnitude of exports to the USA, which also grew by 9.4 percent. Shipments to the neighboring EU countries developed at a modest rate (EU-28 plus 2.6 percent, EURO- 19 plus 3.8 percent). This also corresponds to the increase of German machinery imports from all over the world (plus 3.8 percent). Business with Russia is also developing at a fast pace (plus 22.6 percent). South America has stabilized above zero (plus 6.4 percent), while the OPEC countries continue to lose ground. Economic and Statistic Affairs Page 6 November 2017

7 Incoming orders in Germany for selected sectors %, yoy, real, July - September 2017/2016 Agricultural Machinery Fluid Power Equipment Plastics and Rubber Machinery Materials Handling Technology Air-Handling Technology Constr. Equipment and Building Material Machines Power Transmission Tngineering Precision Tools Machine Tools Food Processing Machinery and Packaging Machinery Power Systems Valves and Fittings Robotics and Automation Printing and Paper Technology Process Plant and Equipment Ø total 12% In the last three statistically verifiable months (July September 2017), 22 of the 28 sectors (which are taken into account separately in the incoming order statistics) experienced an increase compared to the previous year. Four sectors recorded growth rates of 30 percent and more. These were Engines and Systems, Garment and Leather Technologies, Agricultural Machinery and Fluid Power Equipment. Textile Machinery and Process Plant and Equipment, on the other hand, suffered losses of 10 percent and more. Source: Economic and Statistic Affairs Page 7 November 2017

8 Business situation and expectations Manufacturing industry in Germany Balance of positive-negative replies, seasonally adjusted Current assessment month expectations In manufacturing the index of October also hit a new record high. Manufacturers were markedly more satisfied with their ongoing business. Optimism about the business outlook also surged to its highest level to date in The main drivers behind these developments were capital goods producers, and especially mechanical engineering firms Source: ifo-institut,, Macrobond Economic and Statistic Affairs Page 8 November 2017

9 Economic situation of German mechanical engineering a) latest b) times series %-Change Subject Period Unit /2016 Subject Unit Turnover Jan.-Aug. bn EUR 135,9 141,3 3,9 2,9 Production (preliminary) Jan.-Aug. Index 3,0 Exports Jan.-Aug. bn EUR 103,0 109,8 6,6 5,4 Imports Jan.-Aug. bn EUR 43,6 45,2 3,8 3,7 Incoming orders Index Total Jan.-Sept 9 7 Domestic Jan.-Sept 4 2 Foreign Jan.-Sept EURO partner countries Jan.-Sept Non EURO countries Jan.-Sept 10 9 Employees August ,8 Short-time workers March ,9 Capacity utilization October % 84,6 87,9 3,8 Turnover 1 bn EUR 200,5 206,9 205,8 212,1 217,8 214,6 (%-change yoy) % 15,7 3,2-0,5 3,1 2,7. Exports bn EUR 142,2 149,4 149,0 151,5 155,5 155,9 Export share 2 % 75,4 76,8 76,4 76,3 77,3 76,7 Share of world trade 3 % 16,3 15,9 16,3 16,1 15,4 Production real Index (%-change yoy) % 12,7 1,2-1,2 1,1 0,8-0,3 Employees (%-change yoy) % 3,8 3,2 1,6 1,5 0,4. *) Figures for 2016 have not yet been revised. Source: Federal Statistical Office, 1) Data for kind-of-activity units with 50 and more employees according to WZ 2008 (28;3312;3320). 2) Exports in percent of production. 3) German share of machine trade of top machinery supplier countries. 4) Yearly average; Only full-time workers, without temporary staffing; Data for kind-of-activity units with 50 and more employees according to WZ 2008 (28;3312;3320). Price indices Index Producer price index Sept. 0,9 Export price index Sept. 1,0 Import price index Sept. -0,8 Source: Bundesagentur für Arbeit, ifo-institut, Fed. Statistical Office Germany, Economic and Statistic Affairs Page 9 November 2017

10 Contact. Dr. Ralph Wiechers Volkswirtschaft und Statistik Lyoner Str Frankfurt Phone Economic and Statistic Affairs Page 10 >November 2017