E-mobility adoption pathways in France, Germany and Norway
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1 E-mobility adoption pathways in France, Germany and Norway Comparative analysis of macro-environmental factors for knowledge transfer and best practice identification Eglantine Kunle, Christine Minke, Jens zum Hingst, Martin Faulstich
2 Agenda Sustainable mobility Adoption path comparison Why these differences? 2
3 Sustainable mobility Share of European GHG Transport Industry Agriculture Waste management Fuel combustion Share of European transport GHG Road Aviation Maritime Others Eurostat,
4 CO 2 emissions in g/km Sustainable mobility 200 Average CO2 emissions in g/km from new passenger cars Germany France Norway Eurostat 4
5 Sustainable mobility Electricity Map electricitymap.org June
6 Vehicle lifecycle CO 2 emissions in g/km Sustainable mobility Vehicle manufacturing Tailpipe emissions 100 Upstream fuel 50 cycle emissions Lithium-ion battery 0 Most efficient BEV France BEV Germany BEV Norway manufacturing ICE Adapted from Hall, Dale; Lutsey, Nic (2018): Effects of battery manufacturing on electric vehicle life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions. ICCT. 6
7 Analysis framework National adoption identification - Transport sector emissions - EV market share - New EV registration Country A Selection of informative national pathways Country B Adoption path and macro-environmental factor interaction Country C Comprehensive macro-environmental adoption factors review Political Technological Business Socio-cultural Environmental 7
8 Agenda Sustainable mobility Adoption path comparison Why these differences? 8
9 Market share comparison 40% % 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% BEV EV PHEV 5% 0%
10 New registration comparison BEV PHEV
11 Number of electric vehicles Electric vehicle fleet and political goals actual fleet political goal statista.com; challenges.fr; cleantechnica.com; elbil.no; tresor.economie.gouv.fr; theicct.org 11
12 Car industry Number of fully electric models by make Peugeot Citroen Bolloré Renault Volkswagen Porsche* Mercedes BMW Audi* *upcoming
13 Agenda Sustainable mobility Adoption path comparison Why these differences? 13
14 Electric car stock in thousands cars Electric car stock and model availability Mitsubishi I-Miev Bolloré Bluecar Volvo V60 Toyota Prius Opel Ampera Chevrolet Volt VW e-golf Renault Zoe BMW i8 Audi A3 Mitsubishi Outlander Peugeot Ion Citroen C-Zero Nissan Leaf Tesla S BMW i3 VW e-up! Ford Focus SmartForTwo Mercedes Benz B Volkswagen Golf Volkswagen Passat BMW X5 BMW 2-series Mercedes Benz C Volvo XC90 Mercedes Benz GLE BMW i3 PHEV Mercedes Benz S Tesla Model X Hyundai IONIQ Mercedes Benz GLC BMW 3-series Audi Q7 BMW 7-series Kia Optima Mercedes Benz E 14
15 Monetary subsidy 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Average of financial incentive as % of net EV price 0% Norway Germany France McKinsey 2017 Tietge et al.: Comparison of leading electric vehicle policy and deployment in Europe. (2016) ICCT 15
16 Exemplary calculation: Renault ZOE Life 41kWh France Germany Norway List Price VAT Exempted Bonus None Home charging facility % tax credit 1500 Offered Registration tax Exempted (~46 ) ~27 Exempted Annual ownership/road tax Not applicable Exempted five years Exempted End price
17 Fuel prices 2 1 Gasoline price in /Liter 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 Electricity prices in /kwh Households Industry 0 Norway Germany France 0 Norway Germany France Fuel price in per 100km 10 5L/100km 5 0 Norway Germany France EV ICE 20kWh/100km 100% home charging EUROSTAT; globalpetrolprices.com 17
18 Public charging points Directive 2014/94/EU Deployment of alternative fuels infrastructure: In point per 10 cars McKinsey 2017; STATISTA; bdew.de; eafo.eu; avere-france.org; fleetcarma.com; ecologiquesolidire.gouv.fr 18
19 A matter of time? National action plan for the electrification of road transport Electric mobility act Energy transition law for green growth Purchase tax exemption VAT exemption Bonus/ malus Bonus Indirect incentives 19
20 Conclusions & outlook Early significant monetary incentive National simple and unified plan New mobility patterns 20
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