Rice Outlook. Economic Research Service. Situation and Outlook RCS-17K. Nov. 14, Rice Chart Gallery will be updated on Nov. 16, 2017.

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1 Economic Research Service Situation and Outlook RCS-17K Nov. 14, 2017 Rice Chart Gallery will be updated on Nov. 16, The next release is Dec. 14, Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Rice Outlook Nathan Childs Sharon Raszap Skorbiansky U.S. 2017/18 Rice Export Forecast Lowered 2.0 Million Cwt to Million Cwt This month, USDA fractionally lowered its 2017/18 U.S. rice production forecast to million cwt due to a smaller yield. The crop reduction was offset by a higher long-grain import forecast, with total supplies nearly unchanged from the previous forecast. On the use side, exports were lowered 2.0 million cwt to million cwt, with rough-rice accounting for all of the decline. These revisions boosted the 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks forecast 2.1 million cwt to 29.9 million cwt. Season-average price forecasts for 2017/18 were lowered for both U.S. longgrain rice and southern medium- and short-grain rice. In the global rice market, the 2017/18 production forecast was lowered 2.6 million tons to million tons, with crop forecasts lowered for India, Russia, Peru, and the United States. The 2018 global trade forecast was raised 0.7 million tons to 45.1 million tons, the second highest on record. Export forecasts for 2018 were raised this month for Burma, China, Thailand, and Vietnam; but lowered for India and Pakistan.

2 Domestic Outlook U.S. 2017/18 Rice Crop Forecast Lowered Slightly; Import Forecast Increased There were two nearly offsetting 2017/18 U.S. rice supply-side revisions this month. First, the 20017/18 U.S. rice crop forecast was lowered 0.2 million cwt to million cwt, down 20 percent from a year earlier. The downward revision was due to a lower yield. At 7,461 pounds per acre, the 2017/18 average field yield is 9 pounds below the October forecast but 3 percent larger than a year earlier. Harvested area remains estimated at 2.39 million acres, 23 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 1987/88. By class, the 2017/18 U.S. long-grain production forecast was lowered 144,000 cwt to million cwt, a 24-percent decline from a year earlier and the smallest since 2011/12. The 2017/18 U.S. medium- and short-grain production forecast was lowered 60,000 cwt to million cwt, down 9 percent from a year earlier and the smallest since 2008/09. This month, USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service lowered its 2017/18 yield estimates in Louisiana and Texas, but raised its yield estimates in Arkansas and Missouri. For Texas, this is the second consecutive month for a yield reduction. At 6,300 pounds per acre, the Texas yield is down 500 pounds from the October estimate, down 700 pounds from the September estimate and 14 percent below a year earlier. This is the lowest yield for Texas since 1999/2000. In late August, Hurricane Harvey struck much of the Texas rice growing areas. Although almost all of the Texas main rice crop was already harvested, many growers in the Texas Rice Belt also harvest a second crop, the ratoon crop, from the stubble remaining in the field of the first crop harvest. This additional rice production is included in the average yield. Field conditions, input costs, and rice prices are the main factors behind the decision to harvest or not harvest a ratoon crop. Field conditions after the main crop harvest impact the ratoon crop yield as well. Around half the growers in Southwest Louisiana will typically harvest a ratoon crop if prices and field conditions are favorable. This year, growers in Southwest Louisiana received heavy rainfall in August from Hurricane Harvey. Much as with Texas, the bulk of the main crop was already harvested in Southwest Louisiana prior to Harvey s arrival. Louisiana s 2017/18 yield was lowered 100 pounds per acre to 6,900 pounds, up 4 percent from a year earlier. Missouri s 2017/18 yield was raised 300 pounds to a record 7,400 pounds, up 11 percent from a year earlier. The Arkansas 2017/18 yield was raised 50 pounds per acre to 7,400 pounds, 7 percent above a year earlier. In 2016/17, adverse weather reduced yields in both Arkansas and Missouri. In contrast to the 2017/18 production forecast, the U.S. 2017/18 import forecast was raised 0.3 million cwt to 24.5 million cwt, up 4 percent from a year earlier and the highest on record. The upward revision was based on U.S. Census Bureau reported imports for August and September. Long-grain accounted for all of the upward revision in U.S. imports. At a near-record 21.3 million cwt, U.S. 2017/18 long-grain rice imports are up 0.3 million cwt from the previous forecast and 5 percent larger than a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain imports remain forecast at 3.2 million cwt, nearly unchanged from a year earlier. Through September 2017, U.S, imports of all rice on an actual shipment weight basis were 19 percent above a year earlier. At 68,116 tons, U.S. rice imports in September were the highest since March 2017 and the fourth consecutive month of increasing imports. Aromatics account for nearly all of the year-toyear increase through September. Thailand, the largest supplier of U.S. rice imports, shipped 86,306 tons of rice to the U.S. through September 2017, up 24.5 percent from a year earlier. Nearly all of these 2

3 imports were Thailand s premium jasmine rice. India, typically the second largest U.S. supplier, shipped 33,047 tons of rice to the U.S. through September 2017, up 37 percent from a year ago. The bulk of U.S. rice purchases from India are its premium basmati rice. Both aromatics are classified as long-grain. In contrast to the aromatic imports, U.S. imports of broken kernel rice through September 2017 were just 1,552 tons, 500 tons below a year earlier and the lowest since 2005/06. U.S. 2017/18 Export Forecast Lowered 2.0 Million Cwt to 104 Million Cwt A slow pace of shipments and sales through late October and expectations regarding sales and shipments the rest of the market year resulted in a 2-million cwt reduction in the 2017/18 U.S. all-rice export forecast to million cwt. This is down 11 percent from a year ago, with both the long-grain and the medium- and short-grain export forecasts each lowered 1.0 million cwt. At 74.0 million cwt, U.S. longgrain exports are forecast 6 percent below a year earlier. Based on U.S. Census trade data through September and shipment data from the weekly U.S. Export Sales report, U.S. exports of long-grain rice were well behind a year earlier to Central America, South America, and the Middle East. In contrast, U.S. long-grain shipments to Mexico and Haiti were ahead of a year earlier. Shipments to Sub-Saharan Africa were also up slightly, but the volume remains very low. U.S. medium- and short-grain exports are projected at 30.0 million cwt, 21 percent below a year earlier. U.S. shipments through late October were well behind a year earlier to both Northeast Asia and the Mediterranean, which together account for the bulk of U.S. medium- and short-grain rice exports. While the U.S. is expected to achieve its typical level of World Trade Organization sales to Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, U.S. sales to the Mediterranean are expected to be lower this year. By type, U.S. rough-rice exports are projected at 38.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 11 percent below a year earlier. U.S. sales to South America, nearly all long-grain, and sales to North Africa, nearly all medium- and short-grain, are well behind a year earlier. Milled rice exports (brown- and milled-rice exports on a rough-rice basis) remain projected at 66.0 million cwt, also 11 percent below a year earlier. The U.S. continues to face competition in the milled-rice market in both Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. In addition, South American exporters have been increasing sales to U.S. milled rice markets in Latin America. Total domestic and residual use of U.S. rice in 2017/18 remains projected at million cwt, 12.5 percent smaller than a year earlier. The year-to-year decline in domestic and residual use is also largely driven by projections for a smaller crop and by higher prices. Long-grain domestic and residual use remains projected at 88.0 million cwt, 12 percent below 2016/17. Medium- and short-grain domestic use remains projected at 27.0 million cwt, 15 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 1988/89. U.S. all-rice 2017/18 ending stocks are projected at 29.9 million cwt, up 2.1 million cwt from the previous forecast but 35 percent below a year earlier and the smallest since 2007/08. The ending stocksto-use ratio is projected at 13.7 percent, down from 18.6 percent a year earlier. Long-grain ending stocks are forecast at 16.5 million cwt, up 1.2 million cwt from the previous forecast but 47 percent below a year earlier. The long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 10.2 percent, down from 17.4 percent a year earlier. Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are forecast at 9.9 million cwt, up 0.94 million cwt from the previous forecast but 14 percent below a year earlier. These are the smallest U.S. medium- and shortgrain stocks since 2008/09. The medium- and short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 17.4 percent, up from 16.5 percent in 2016/17. 3

4 U.S. 2017/18 Long-Grain and Southern Medium- and Short-grain Season-Average Farm Prices Lowered This month, USDA lowered its 2017/18 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) for both long-grain rice and for southern medium- and short-grain rice. In addition, NASS made small revisions for the 2016/17 SAFPs for both classes of rice in both regions. The 2017/18 revisions were largely based on reported monthly cash prices and marketings through September and expectations regarding prices and marketings the remainder of the market year. The 2017/18 long-grain SAFP is projected at $11.80-$12.80 per cwt, down 20 cents on both ends of the forecast range from last month but well above the revised $9.64 in 2016/17. The Southern medium- and short-grain 2017/18 SAFP is forecast at $12.00-$13.00 per cwt, also down 20 cents on both ends of the range from the previous forecast but up from a revised $10.10 in 2016/17. The California medium- and short-grain 2017/18 SAFP remains forecast at $15.50-$16.50, up from a revised $13.70 in 2016/17. The 2017/18 U.S. medium- and short-grain SAFP is forecast at $14.60-$15.60 per cwt, down 10 cents on both ends of the forecast range from last month but above a revised $12.90 in 2016/17. The 2017/18 all rice SAFP is projected at $12.50-$13.50 per cwt, down 20 cents on both the high and low ends of the range from the previous forecast and higher than the revised $10.40 a year earlier. In late October, USDA reported a long-grain monthly average cash price for September of $11.20 per cwt, up 60 cents from August and the highest since March 2016 and the fifth consecutive month of an increase. The California September medium- and short-grain cash price was reported at $13.90 per cwt, down 30 cents from August. The September southern medium- and short-grain price was reported at $11.20 per cwt, up 20 cents from August and the highest since February The September U.S. medium- and short-grain price was reported at $13.10 per cwt, down 70 cents from August. The all-rice September price was reported at $11.60 per cwt, up 50 cents from August and the highest since August

5 International Outlook Global 2017/18 Rice Production Forecast Lowered 2.6 Million Tons to Million Tons Global rice production in 2017/18 is forecast at million tons (milled basis), down 2.6 million tons from the previous forecast and 5.4 million tons below the 2016/17 record. At million hectares, global harvested area in 2017/18 is down 0.7 million hectares from a year earlier, with Bangladesh, China, India, the Philippines, and the United States accounting for the bulk of the area decline. The average global yield of 4.49 tons per hectare is down from the year-earlier record of 4.52 tons, with a weaker yield in India a major factor. This month, USDA lowered its 2017/18 crop forecasts for four countries. The largest downward revision was for India, where 20017/18 production was lowered 2.5 million tons to million tons based on a 1.8-million hectare reduction in area to 42.7 million hectares. The area reduction was based on adverse weather in various parts of the country. India s 2017/18 production is second only to the year-earlier record. In addition, Russia s 2017/18 rice production forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 650,000 tons based on smaller area reported by the Government. Argentina s 2017/18 production was lowered 46,000 tons to 834,000 tons, also due to smaller area. Finally, the U.S. 2017/18 crop was lowered 6,000 tons to 5.66 million tons due to a slightly lower yield reported by NASS in the November 9, Crop Production report. There were 3 production revisions this month for 2016/17. The largest was a 421,000-ton reduction in Vietnam s 2016/17 production estimate to million tons due to a reduced area estimate in the Mekong River Delta caused by adverse weather impacting its summer-autumn crop. The summer-autumn crop is typically harvested August-October. Peru s 2016/17 production estimate was lowered 140,000 tons to 2.2 million tons based on slightly smaller area and a much lower yield. Finally, Brazil s 2016/17 production estimate was raised 1,000 tons to 8.38 million based on an even higher record yield. Brazil s area estimate was actually lowered. The 2017/18 global ending stocks forecast was lowered 2.6 million tons to million tons, up 0.8 million from 2016/17 and the highest since the 2000/01 record of million tons. India accounts for most of the month-to-month reduction in the 2017/18 global ending stocks forecast. China accounts for most of the year-to-year increase in 2017/18 global ending stocks. 5

6 Map 1: Production forecast for market year 2017/18, November 2017 Source: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production, Supply and Distribution database 6

7 Map 2: Changes in production forecast from marketing years 2016/17 to 2017/18, November 2017 Source: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service, Production, Supply and Distribution database 7

8 Global Rice Trade Projected Second Highest on Record in 2018 Global rice trade in 2018 is projected at 45.1 million tons, down 0.6 million tons from the 2017 record and the second highest on record. On the export side, shipments in 2018 are projected to be smaller from Argentina, Burma, Cambodia, Thailand, the United States, and Uruguay. In contrast, Australia, India, Pakistan, and Vietnam are projected to export more rice in On the import side, Egypt, Iran, Kenya, Malaysia, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka are projected to purchase less rice in In contrast, Bangladesh, Cote d Ivoire, Madagascar, and the Philippines are projected to import more rice in 2018 than in Table A - Rice exports at a glance for 2017 and 2018 (1,000 MT), November 2017 Country or Month-to-month Year-to-year Trade region forecast change forecast change Comments on month-to-month forecast changes Thousand metric tons Rice Exports, 2018 Burma 2, Large monthly sales to China, Africa and EU China 1, Increased exports (incl. Africa and Turkey) Costa Rica India 11, Smaller crop, though larger beginning stocks Japan Mexico Sales to Venezuela Pakistan 3, Slow exports and smaller crop Paraguay Pace of trade Russia Smaller crop Thailand 10, Strong trade and competitive prices Vietnam 6, Strong trade (incl. China) Rice Exports, 2017 Argentina Tigther supplies and higher prices Burma 2, ,500 High monthly exports to China, Africa and EU China 1, Increased exports (incl. Africa and Turkey) Costa Rica India 11, ,360 Strong basmati exports Pakistan 3, Slow exports and smaller crop Paraguay Pace of trade Peru Decreased border trade due to weather conditions Thailand 11, ,133 Strong trade and competitive prices (record exports) Uruguay 1, Pace of trade Vietnam 6, ,112 Strong trade (incl. China) Source: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Foreign Agriculture Service, Production, Supply and Distribution data base 8

9 Table B - Rice imports at a glance for 2017 and 2018 (1,000 MT), November 2017 Country or Month-to-month Year-to-year Trade Comments on month-to-month forecast changes region forecast change forecast change Thousand metric tons Rice Imports, 2018 Angola Rapid consumption growth and Pakistan imports Argentina Benin Increased imports from India Cameroon Pace of trade Ecuador Cross border trade with Peru Iraq 1, Increased on government purchases and tenders Kazakhstan Increased imports from Pakistan Kenya Increased imports from Pakistan Laos Decreased imports from Thailand Mexico Pace of trade Mozambique Strong consumption growth and strong imports Qatar Increased imports from India Russia Increased imports from Asia Tanzania Increased basmati imports from Pakistan Togo Strong pace of trade United States Increased imports from Thailand Rice Imports, 2017 Afghanistan Imports from Pakistan Angola Rapid consumption growth and Pakistan imports Argentina Benin Increased imports from India of non-parboiled rice Cameroon Pace of trade Ecuador Cross border trade with Peru Iraq 1, Increased on government purchases and tenders Kazakhstan Larger than normal imports from Pakistan Kenya Increased imports from Pakistan Laos Decreased imports from Thailand Madagascar Increased imports from Pakistan and Burma Malaysia 1, Increased imports from Vietnam Mexico Pace of trade Mozambique Strong consumption growth and strong imports Nigeria 2, Increased border trade Peru Qatar Increased imports from India Russia Increased imports from Asia (incl. Kazakhstan, Thailand, Vietnam) Sierra Leone Increased imports from China Somalia Trade to date Tanzania Increased basmati imports from Pakistan Togo Strong pace of trade United States Increased imports from Thailand Source: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Foreign Agriculture Service, Production, Supply and Distribution database 9

10 Contact Information Nathan Childs, (202) , Sharon Raszap Skorbiansky, (202) , Beverly Payton (Web Publishing), (202) , Subscription Information Subscribe to ERS notification service at to receive timely notification of newsletter availability. Data Rice Monthly Tables Rice Chart Gallery Related Websites Rice Outlook Rice Topic WASDE Grain Circular E mail Notification Readers of ERS outlook reports have two ways they can receive an notice about release of reports and associated data. Receive timely notification (soon after the report is posted on the web) via USDA s Economics, Statistics and Market Information System (which is housed at Cornell University s Mann Library). Go to MannUsda/about Service.do and follow the instructions to receive notices about ERS, Agricultural Marketing Service, National Agricultural Statistics Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board products. Receive weekly notification (on Friday afternoon) via the ERS website. Go to e-to-ers-e-newsletters.aspx and follow the instructions to receive notices about ERS Outlook reports, Amber Waves magazine, and other reports and data products on specific topics. ERS also offers RSS (really simple syndication) feeds for all ERS products. Go to to get started. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and, where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, political beliefs, reprisal, or because all or a part of an individual s income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA s TARGET Center at (202) (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination write to USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C or call (800) (voice) or (202) (TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. 10

11 Tables Table 1--U.S. rice supply and use 1/ Item 2011/ / / / / / /18 2/ TOTAL RICE Million acres Area: Planted Harvested Pounds per harvested acre Yield 7,067 7,463 7,694 7,576 7,472 7,237 7,461 Million cwt Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Food, industrial, & residual 3/ N/A Seed N/A Total domestic use Exports Rough Milled 4/ Total use Ending stocks Percent Stocks-to-use ratio $/cwt Average farm to price 5/ Percent Average milling rate N/A = not available. 1/ August-July market year; rough equivalent. 2/ Projected. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 4/ Rough-rice equivalent. 5/ Market-year weighted average. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board. Updated November 9,

12 Table 2--U.S. rice supply and use, by class 1/ LONG GRAIN: Item 2012/ / / / / /18 Million acres Planted Harvested Pounds per harvested acre Yield 7,291 7,464 7,407 7,219 6, Million cwt Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Domestic use 3/ Exports Total use Ending stocks Percent Stocks-to-use ratio $/cwt to Average farm price 4/ / MEDIUM/SHORT GRAIN: Million acres Planted Harvested Pounds per harvested acre Yield 7,951 8,270 8,080 8,107 8, Million cwt Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply 5/ Domestic use 3/ Exports Total use Ending stocks Percent Stocks-to-use ratio $/cwt Average farm price U.S. average 4/ 6/ to California 6/ 7/ to Other States 4/ to Ending stocks difference 1/ N/A -- = Not available. 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types of rice in table 1. 2/ Projected. 3/ Includes residual. 4/ Market year begins August 1. 5/ Accounts for the difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short-grain may not equal the sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports. 6/ The medium/short-grain season-average farm price (SAFP) largely reflects rice that is marketed through price pools in California. The pool price is not final until all the rice in the pool is marketed for the crop year. Therefore, SAFP forecasts based on the average of NASS monthly prices and the final price may differ. 7/ Market year begins October 1. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board. Last updated November 9,

13 Table 3--U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings 2017/ / /16 Month $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt August , , ,079 September , , ,368 October , ,336 November , ,433 December , ,754 January , ,810 February , ,857 March , ,562 April , ,889 May , ,754 June , ,159 July , ,103 Average price to date / Season-average farm price Average marketings 10,357 15,600 13,925 Total volume marketed 20, , ,104 1/ Weighted average. Source: Monthly cash price and marketings, Agricultural Prices, USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. Last updated November 9,

14 Table 4 -- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings by class Long-grain Medium- and short-grain 2017/ / / /17 Month $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt August , , , ,087 September , , , ,416 October , ,854 November , ,827 December , ,378 January , ,467 February , ,218 March , ,353 April , ,065 May , ,643 June , ,795 July , ,209 Average to date 1/ Season-average farm price / Average marketings 8,362 11,908 1,995 3,693 Total volume marketed 16, ,892 3,989 44,312 Market year August-July. 1/ Weighted average. 2/ The medium/short-grain season-average farm price (SAFP) largely reflects rice that is marketed through price pools in California. The pool price is not final until all the rice in the pool is marketed for the crop year Therefore, SAFP forecasts based on the average of NASS monthly prices and the final price may differ. Source: Monthly cash price and marketings, Agricultural Prices, USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. Last updated November 9,

15 Table 5--U.S. medium- and short-grain monthly rough-rice cash prices by region 1/ California Other States 2/ Month 2016/ /16 Month 2017/ /17 $/cwt $/cwt October August November September December October January November 9.39 February December March January April February 9.93 May March June April July May August June September July Simple average to date Market-year average / Not reported. 1/ The California market year begins October 1; the Other States' market year begins August 1. 2/ The remaining U.S. rice growing States are Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas. 3/ Season-average price forecast. Source: Quick Stats, USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Last updated November 9,

16 Table 6--USDA-calculated world market rice prices (rough basis) 1/ 2017/ / /16 Medium/ Medium/ Medium/ Month Long-grain short-grain Long-grain short-grain Long-grain short-grain August September October November 2/ December January February March April May June July Market-year average 1/ / Simple average of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly adjusted world market price. 2/ Preliminary. Source: USDA, Farm Service Agency, Economic and Policy Analysis, Rice Reports, Last updated November 9, $/cwt 16

17 Table 7--U.S. rice imports 1/ Country 2009/ / / / / / / / / /18 or market market market market market market market market through through region year year year year year year year year September 3/ September 3/ 1,000 tons ASIA China India Pakistan Thailand Vietnam Other EUROPE & FORMER SOVIET UNION Italy Spain Russia United Kingdom Other WESTERN HEMISPHERE Argentina Brazil Canada Mexico Uruguay Other OTHER Egypt United Arab Emirates Australia Other TOTAL / Total August-July imports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. 2/ Through August only. All data are reported on a product-weight basis. Categories may not sum to total due to rounding. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Commerce. Last updated November 9,

18 Table 8--U.S. commercial rice exports Country 2009/ / / / / / / / / /18 or market market market market market market market market through through region year 1/ year 1/ year 1/ year 1/ year 1/ year 1/ year 1/ year 1/ Nov, / Nov / 1,000 tons EUROPE & FSU European Union Other Europe Former Soviet Union (FSU) NORTHEAST ASIA Hong Kong Japan South Korea Taiwan OTHER ASIA, OCEANIA, & THE MIDDLE EAST Australia Iran Iraq Israel Jordan Micronesia New Zealand Papua New Guinea Saudi Arabia Singapore Syria Turkey Rest of Asia, Oceania, and Middle East AFRICA Algeria Ghana Guinea-Conakry Liberia Libya Nigeria Senegal South Africa Togo Other Africa WESTERN HEMISPHERE 2, , , , , , , , Bahamas Brazil Canada Colombia Costa Rica Dominican Republic El Salvador Guatemala Haiti Honduras Jamaica Leeward & Windward Islands Mexico Netherlands Antilles Nicaragua Panama Venezuela Other Western Hemisphere UNKNOWN TOTAL 3, , , , , , , , , , / Total August-July marketing year commercial shipments. 2/ Total commercial shipments and outstanding sales. Source: U.S. Export Sales, USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service Last updated November 9,

19 Table 9--U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam price quotes United States Month or Southern Southern California Thailand 5/ Vietnam 7/ market- long-grain long-grain medium-grain 100% 5% 15% A.1 6/ 5% year 1/ milled 2/ rough 3/ milled 4/ Grade B Parboiled Brokens Super Brokens $ / metric ton 2010/ / / Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb NQ Mar , Apr , May , June , July , NQ / Aug NQ Sep NQ Oct NQ Nov NQ Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July / Aug Sep Oct NQ 364 Nov NQ 376 Dec NQ 377 Jan NQ 359 Feb NQ 354 Mar NQ 381 Apr NQ 374 May NQ 376 June NQ 374 July NQ / Aug NQ 350 Sept NQ 334 Oct NQ 345 Nov NQ 346 Dec NQ 337 Jan NQ 340 Feb NQ 353 Mar NQ 357 Apr NQ 350 May NQ 360 June NQ 405 July NQ /17 9/ NQ 357 August NQ 400 September / NQ 390 October / NQ 396 November / NQ /18 9/ NQ 397 NQ = No quotes. NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly quotes. Market year average prices are simple average of monthly prices. 2/ Number 2, 4-percent brokens, sacked, free on board vessel.. Prior to August 2015, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulf Port. Since August 2015, free on board vessel, U.S. Gulf port. To convert to a free on board vessel price add $25 per ton. 3/ Bulk, free on board vessel, New Orleans, LA. 4/ New price series. Number 1, maximum 4-percent brokens, sacked, 25 kilogram, containerized, free on board, California mill. 5/ Nominal price quotes, long-grain, sacked, free on board vessel, Bangkok, Thailand. 6/ 100-percent brokens, new price series. 7/ Long-grain, double-water-polished, bagged, free on board vessel, Ho Chi Minh City. 8/ Revised. Please note previous months' revisions in bold. 9/ Preliminary. Sources: U.S. and Vietnam prices, Creed Rice Market Report; Thailand prices, Weekly Rice Price Update, U.S. Agricultural Office, Bangkok, Thailand ( Updated November 9,

20 Table 10--Global rice producers: annual production, monthly revisions, and annual changes 1/ 2016/17 2/ 2017/18 2/ October November Monthly Annual October November Monthly Annual Country 2016/ revisions changes revisions changes 1,000 metric tons Afghanistan Argentina Australia Bangladesh 34,500 34,578 34, ,000 33, ,578 Brazil 7,210 8,382 8, ,173 7,820 7, Burma 12,160 12,500 12, ,600 12, Cambodia 4,847 4,950 4, ,000 5, China 145, , , , , Colombia 1,400 1,718 1, ,580 1, Cote d'ivoire 1,399 1,335 1, ,430 1, Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt 4,000 4,800 4, ,300 4, European Union 2,048 2,069 2, ,083 2, Ghana Guinea 1,351 1,435 1, ,386 1, Guyana India 104, , , , , ,500-2,500-2,650 Indonesia 36,200 37,150 37, ,000 37, Iran 1,782 1,782 1, ,782 1, Iraq Japan 7,670 7,780 7, ,600 7, Korea, North 1,300 1,600 1, ,550 1, Korea, South 4,327 4,197 4, ,900 3, Laos 1,925 1,950 1, ,000 2, Liberia Madagascar 2,382 2,442 2, ,048 2, Malaysia 1,800 1,820 1, ,820 1, Mali 1,515 1,800 1, ,735 1, Mexico Mozambique Nepal 2,863 3,224 3, ,250 3, Nigeria 3,528 3,654 3, ,654 3, Pakistan 6,800 6,850 6, ,900 6, Paraguay Peru 2,174 2,325 2, ,446 2, Philippines 11,000 11,686 11, ,200 11, Russia Sierra Leone Sri Lanka 3,294 1,997 1, ,297 2,900 2, Taiwan 1,112 1,144 1, ,144 1, Tanzania 1,782 1,848 1, ,848 1, Thailand 15,800 19,200 19, ,400 20,400 20, ,200 Turkey Uganda United States 6,133 7,117 7, ,670 5, ,453 Uruguay Venezuela Vietnam 27,584 27,971 27, ,450 28, Subtotal 468, , ,771 (560) 13, , ,159 (2,602) (5,612) Others 3,751 3,794 3, ,036 4, World total 472, , , , , ,195-2,602-5, Not reported. 1/ Market year production on a milled basis. 2/ Projected. Source: Production, Supply, & Distribution Online Data Base, USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Updated November 9,

21 Table 11--Global rice exporters; calendar year exports, monthly revisions, and annual changes / / October November Monthly Annual October November Monthly Annual Country revisions changes revisions changes 1,000 metric tons (milled basis) Argentina Australia Brazil Burma 1,300 2,400 2, ,500 2,100 2, Cambodia 1,150 1,350 1, ,250 1, China , ,000 1, Cote d'ivoire Egypt European Union Guinea Guyana India 10,040 11,200 11, ,360 11,800 11, Japan Kazakhstan Pakistan 4,000 3,900 3, ,100 3, Paraguay Peru Russia Senegal South Africa Surinam Tanzania Thailand 9,867 10,500 11, ,133 10,000 10, Turkey Uganda United States 3,373 3,550 3, ,450 3, Uruguay , Venezuela Vietnam 5,088 6,000 6, ,112 6,000 6, Subtotal 39,866 44,250 45,400 1,150 5,534 44,160 44, Other World total 40,128 44,557 45,713 1,156 5,585 44,419 45, U.S. Share 8.4% 8.0% 7.7% % 7.6% Not reported. Note: All trade data are reported on a calendar year basis. 1/ Projected. Source: Production, Supply, & Distribution Online Data Base, USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Last updated November 9,

22 Table 12--Global rice importers; calendar year imports, monthly revisions, and annual changes / / October November Monthly Annual October November Monthly Annual Country revisions changes revisions changes 1,000 tons (milled basis) Afghanistan Australia Bangladesh 35 1,100 1, ,065 1,200 1, Brazil Cameroon Canada China 4,600 5,250 5, ,250 5, Colombia Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire 1,300 1,350 1, ,500 1, Cuba Egypt European Union 1,816 1,850 1, ,900 1, Ghana Guinea Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Indonesia 1, Iran 1,100 1,600 1, ,300 1, Iraq 930 1,000 1, ,050 1, Japan Jordan Korea, North Korea, South Liberia Libya Madagascar Malaysia , Mexico Mozambique Nicaragua Niger Nigeria 2,100 2,400 2, ,300 2, Philippines 800 1,100 1, ,700 1, Russia Saudi Arabia 1,300 1,400 1, ,450 1, Senegal 980 1,000 1, ,050 1, Sierra Leone Singapore South Africa 954 1,000 1, Sri Lanka Syria Taiwan Thailand Turkey United Arab Emirates United States Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Subtotal 31,034 34,866 35, ,467 35,286 35, Other countries 2/ 9,094 9,691 10, ,118 9,133 9, World total 40,128 44,557 45,713 1,156 5,585 44,419 45, Note: All trade data are reported on a calendar-year basis. -- = Not reported. 1/ Projected. 2/ Includes unaccounted imports (imports not assigned a particular market). Source: Production, Supply, & Distribution Online Data Base, USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Last updated November 9,