Auto Sales & Monthly Recap. Market Watch

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Lester Holland
6 years ago
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Q3 2017 Aut Sales & Mnthly Recap Aut sales fr Q1 thrugh Q3 2017 finished at 12.9 millin, 2.2% belw the same perid in 2016. September marked the first increase in mnthly sales - up 1.5 millin r 2.

1 Q Aut Sales & Mnthly Recap Aut sales fr Q1 thrugh Q finished at 12.9 millin, 2.2% belw the same perid in September marked the first increase in mnthly sales - up 1.5 millin r 2.1% abve August September s strng ratings were a direct result f the aut sales during Hurricane Harvey recvery in the Hustn market. Overall, the market finished at 17 millin sales (SAAR), dwn frm 17.4 millin in Thirteen f the twenty-six majr car brands psted sales increases between Q1 and Q The market dwnturn fllws seven cnsecutive years f rising demand. Market Watch The average vehicle transactin price in September was $31,058 (JD Pwers), a mnthly recrd fr September. Sales incentives were $3,506 per vehicle, marking a 21% increase ver 2016 (ALG). Car cmpanies cntinue t ffer aggressive lease and financing prgrams thrughut the year, with vehicle incentives averaging $1,026 (Subaru) t $4,919 (GM). Truck and sprt utility sales dminated the market with 63.5% share, up 4.0% cmpared t the first nine mnths f In the truck and sprt utility segment, nly small vans saw sales declines cmpared t The passenger car market share was 36.5%, dwn 11.5% fr the first nine mnths f the year cmpared t Only ne f twelve segments in the car market was up in Q1-Q (mid-luxury sedan). September dealer inventry clsed ut the mnth with an average supply f 65 days, dwn 1 day frm last year. Dmestics Overall Brand Watch & Perfrmance Chrysler (FCA) Sales were dwn 8.6% in the first 9 mnths f 2017 vs. the same perid in 2016; this is the 13th mnth f cnsecutive sales declines. All divisin sales were dwn year-ver-year. Fleet sales represented 16% f ttal sales in September. Pacific minivan, Ddge Durang, Prmaster Vans, Jeep Renegade, Grand Cherkee, Wrangler and Cmpass recrded strng sales while the rest f the lineup were dwn. The Chrysler 200 and Twn & Cuntry are in the final sell dwn and the Ddge Caravan is temprarily discntinued. Market share fr the first 9 mnths was 12.0%, dwn 0.9 share pints vs. the same perid in Dealer inventry was 76 days, flat frm August. The Ddge Challenger, Jeep Cherkee, Cmpass and all Fiat mdels finished with significant inventries ver 90 days. 1

Frd / Lincln Q1-Q3 2017 sales were dwn 3.1% vs. the same perid in 2016. September sales were up 4.8% as a result f Hurricane Harvey recvery.

2 Frd / Lincln Q1-Q sales were dwn 3.1% vs. the same perid in September sales were up 4.8% as a result f Hurricane Harvey recvery. Incremental vehicles increased by 18,000, f which ne-third was related t hurricane recvery. F series pickups, SUV s, crssvers and vans cntributed t the grwth, partially ffset by the cntinuing decline in car sales. Fleet sales grew t 25% f Frd s business. Lincln sales were up 2.4% fr the first nine mnths f Market share fr the first nine mnths was 14.9%, dwn 0.2 share pints vs Frd dealer inventry finished at 71 days, dwn 9 days frm August. Lincln s supply was at 100 days, dwn 8 days frm August. GM First 9 mnth s sales were dwn 1.3% vs. the same perid in 2016; the nly brand t pst year-veryear declines was GMC. September sales were up 7.5%, which were the best since Pickups and crssvers led the increase, up 39% while car sales were dwn 8%. Chevrlet and GMC were the nly brands with increased sales in September s GM fleet, frm 2.7% t 20.9%, while retail sales were up 8%. Market share fr the first nine mnths was 17.0%, up 0.1 share pints vs. the same perid in Japanese Overall dealer inventry was 76 days, dwn 11 days frm August. All GM divisins had decreased inventry this mnth; Chevrlet finished at 69 days, GMC at 91 days, Buick at 117 days and Cadillac at 74 days. Tyta / Lexus Sales fr the first 9 mnths were up 0.1% vs. the same perid in 2016; Tyta had a mderate increase f 1.2% while Lexus declined 7.4%. On a psitive nte, Tyta psted sales gains n crssvers, SUV s and pickups. Lexus als psted gains n SUV s and crssvers. September s strng sales resulted frm the new Camry, CH-R, RAV4, Highlander and 4Runner. Overall, Lexus experienced twelve cnsecutive mnths f sales declines. Luxury sedan sales cntinue t struggle, but are partially ffset by grwth in luxury utility vehicles. Tyta s market share fr the first nine mnths was 14.2%, dwn 0.3 share pints. Tyta dealer inventry finished at 47 days, up 1 day cmpared t August. Lexus finished at 51 days, up 1 day. Nissan / Infiniti Sales fr the first 9 mnths were up 0.7% vs. the same perid in Sales increased fr Infiniti 17%, while Nissan was dwn 0.8% with strng perfrmances frm Nissan Sentra, Rgue, Armada and Maxima, as well as the Infiniti Q30, Q50 & Q60. Nissan s market share fr the first half was 9.3%, up 0.3 share pints frm the first 9 mnths f Nissan inventry finished at 62 days, dwn 23 days frm August. Infiniti finished at 70 days, dwn 19 days. Hnda / Acura First nine mnth s sales were dwn 0.2% vs. the same perid in Sales were flat at Hnda while dwn at Acura. September sales saw imprved sales fr Hnda. There was strng demand fr Hnda Civic, Accrd, and HR-V. Acura saw sales imprvements n the ILX sedan and MDX crssver. Hnda s market share fr the first quarter was 9.6%, up 0.2 share pints vs Hnda s dealer inventry finished at 53 days, dwn 2 days, while Acura was at 84, up 4 days. 2

3 Krean Hyundai / Kia Sales fr the first 9 mnths were dwn 10.6% vs. 2016, driven by weak Hyundai and Kia sales. The new luxury Genesis divisin was the sle exceptin. Weak sales perfrmance cntinued in September with sales drpping 9.1%. This is partially due t dramatic cuts t fleet sales which were dwn 37% frm Hyundai s Santa Fe and Tucsn and Kia s Frte and Optima were the nly mdels that experienced sales grwth. Genesis G90 drve grwth fr the luxury divisin. Hyundai/Kia first nine mnths market share was 7.5%, dwn 0.7 share pints frm Hyundai inventry finished at 70 days, dwn 2 days, while Genesis finished at 96 days, up 74 days. Kia finished at 56 days, dwn 2 days. Eurpean The first 9 mnths f Eurpean sales were up 1.5% vs. the same perid in Market share fr the first nine mnths was 9.1%, up 0.4 share pints vs The VW, Audi, Jaguar, Alfa Rme and Prsche brands generated strng sales fr the first nine mnths f BMW, Mini, Mercedes, Land Rver, Vlv and Fiat exhibited weak perfrmances in the first 9 mnths. Inventry fr the Eurpean brands finished the mnth at 69 days, up 6 days. The highest inventries were Fiat with 130 days, Jaguar with 115 days, VW with 132 days, Vlv at 85 and Prsche with 93 days. Winning Brands Brand 9 Mnths YTD /YOY Key Grwth Mdels Alfa Rme % Stelvi Genesis % G90 Jaguar +47.9% F Pace, XF Tesla +23.2% Mdel X Infiniti +17.0% QX30, QX50, QX60, Q60 VW +8.7% Atlas, Tiguan Subaru +6.7% Impreza, XV Crsstrek Mitsubishi +6.1% Outlander, Outlander Sprt Audi +5.3% A5, Q5, Q7 Weakest Brands Brand First Half 2017 YOY Key Declining Mdels Chrysler -23.2% 200, 300, Twn & Cuntry Hyundai -15.5% Elantra, Snata, Velster Jeep -12.4% Cherkee, Patrit Mini -11.0% Cper Lexus -7.4% GS, IS, ES 3

4 Implicatins & Actins First nine mnths sales were dwn 2.2%. The first grwth in mnthly sales fr the year was in September as a result f strng dealer incentives and hurricane recvery. Sales remain strng in crssvers, SUV s and pickup trucks frm mst car cmpanies. Cnsumers remain attracted t dealerships by recrd vehicle incentives, which put immense cst pressure n manufactures and dealers and strain marketing and media budgets. Manufacturers reduced prductin plans t better balance the changing car/ truck vehicle share. Car cmpanies are cutting sales t fleet custmers t balance supply and demand cnditins in tday s market and imprve prfitability. Many car brands are experiencing weaker sales. The exceptins are Tyta, Hnda, Nissan, Infiniti, Subaru, Genesis, Mitsubishi, VW, Audi, Jaguar, Prsche, GMC and Lincln. These brands have had strng truck, crssver and sprt utility sales. Car cmpanies/ brands that are the mst vulnerable t prductin cuts due t high dealer inventries are Buick, Cadillac, Lincln, Acura, Fiat, Vlv Car, VW Car. Implicatins The industry is expected t have millin sales in 2017, dwn almst 500k frm last year. Car cmpanies have already made prductin cuts this spring and will cntinue t d s fr the remainder f There is upside ptential with hurricane recvery sales ptential f 300 t 500k. Dealer inventry has fallen select Asian/Eurpean and Detrit brands are at particularly high levels. Car cmpanies will cntinue t spend n incentives and decrease ad spending in rder t stabilize marketing csts. Tier 2 media levels will be affected by lwer prductin, reducing tier 2 factry supprt. One additinal Federal Reserve interest rate increase is frecasted fr the remainder f This will lead t rising vehicle leasing and financing rates, which will impact new vehicle sales. Actins It s time t schedule yur planning meetings with Tier 1 aut brands, Tier 2 ad assciatins, and Tier 3 dealers/dealer grups fr 4 th quarter spending and 2018 budget planning. There will be lts f pressure t lwer spending levels; wrk n innvative ideas t prtect yur business. TVB is wrking n 2018 prgrams with Frd and FCA in Tier 2. Prblem brands will need incremental marketing supprt t increase their sales paces and lwer excess inventry. It s critical t mve the remaining 2017 mdel inventry. The marketing fcus will be n cars, alternative energy mdels and pickup trucks. Check the Aut Playbk 2017 Editin fr new mdel launch timing fr the third and furth quarters. 4

5 Grup & Segment Perfrmance Quarterly Sales Cmparisn The weakest sales perfrmance: Dmestic, Japanese and Krean brands. Dmestics were dwn 3.9% (driven by weak sales frm Chrysler, Jeep, Buick and Cadillac brands) Japanese were up 0.7% (driven by strng grwth frm Mitsubishi, Subaru and Infiniti) Krean were dwn 10.6% (driven by weaker Hyundai and Kia sales) Eurpean up 1.5% (driven by strng sales frm Jaguar, VW, Audi and Alfa Rme) GM retained its #1 psitin, with Frd at # 2, Tyta at #3 and Chrysler at #4. Mercedes held the #1 luxury psitin in the first 9 mnths, with BMW at #2 and Lexus at #3. Lexus finished #2 in September. Leading grwth segments tied t new prduct activity: Prestige Luxury SUV (12.2%) Tesla Mdel X, Maserati Levante, Range Rver, Infiniti QX80 Entry Luxury SUV (11.7%) Audi Q3, Lexus NX, Vlv XC60 Small SUV (7.0%) Tyta RAV4, Nissan Rgue, Chevy Equinx Mid SUV (6.6%) Jeep Grand Cherkee, Tyta Highlander, GMC Acadia Large Pickup (4.7%) Nissan Titan, Frd F Series The three weakest segments, due t a lack f majr new prduct launches and the ppularity f sprt utilities and crssvers, were Entry Subcmpact (21.6%), Entry Luxury Sedan (25.0%) and Sprty Subcmpact (20.3%). Fr mre inf cntact Steve Sturm, Executive Advisr, Autmtive: ssturm@tvb.rg 5

PRESS RELEASE 04:30 EDT, 12 th October 2017 Troy, MI, USA

PRESS RELEASE 04:30 EDT, 12 th October 2017 Troy, MI, USA US VEHICLE SALES FELL BY 1.1% IN Q3 2017, DESPITE A STRONG SEPTEMBER PERFORMANCE SUVs, Trucks, and Vans continued to gain market share in Q3 2017,