Maryland Auto Outlook

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1 Covering Second Quarter 2015 Volume 20, Number 3 Sponsored by: Maryland Automobile Dealers Association TM FORECAST State Market Predicted to Increase 3.9% from 2014 to 2015 Positive factors slightly out-weigh negatives; slow growth expected in 2016 Key factors providing a boost to new vehicle sales Incentive to upgrade. In almost every way, today s new car and trucks are far superior to vehicles that came out just five years ago. But it s the introduction of advanced safety features (i.e, mitigation braking, lane alert, smart cruise control, blind spot monitoring, rear-view cameras, etc.) on mainstream, non-luxury brand vehicles that will give a boost to sales for many years to come. These safety-related technologies will provide a strong motivation for consumers to trade in their current vehicles for new ones. Pent up demand. The average age of vehicles on the road is still at extremely high levels. Following five years of well below average sales, the new vehicle market has only recently moved above trend line levels. We think that based on cyclical factors alone, the market recovery still has legs. Labor market is improving. Total employment has moved steadily higher for the past five years, while the unemployment rate has declined. There are also some recent signs that wages and incomes are finally starting to move higher. Some economists remain concerned about sluggish growth in the labor force and lingering under-employment, but the outlook for jobs and incomes has improved. Key factors holding back new vehicle sales Rising interest rates. After several years of hovering near zero, it appears as though interest rates are on the rise. It s not likely to be an abrupt, upward march, but it s inevitable that they will drift higher. Higher interest rates lead to increasing monthly finance and lease payments, which puts a drag on new vehicle sales. Insufficient household savings. Leading into the financial crisis of 2008, households had amassed record debt. After several years of deleveraging, the debt burden has eased significantly. However, the majority of U.S. households have insufficient savings for retirement, and it will take considerable time to build these nest eggs. As a result, households will need to devote a chunk of disposable income toward savings instead of retail spending (which includes automobiles). Consumer sentiment. Most measures of consumer sentiment have improved recently, but there is still a pervading sense of uneasiness among many U.S. households. Median household incomes have been stagnant for decades, while many still feel that high quality, good paying jobs are difficult to find. This nagging sense that things are not as good as they should be, will likely prevent many potential purchasers from buying a new vehicle. New light vehicle registrations 300, , , , ,000 50,000 Annual Trend in State Market 214, , , , , , , , Forecast Historical Data The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the state from 2008 thru 2014 and Auto Outlook s projection for Market Summary YTD '14 YTD '15 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru June thru June* '14 to '15 YTD '15* TOTAL 125, , % Car 65,670 64, % 48.8% Light Truck 59,892 67, % 51.2% Domestic 40,133 43, % 32.7% European 12,694 13, % 10.0% Japanese 61,214 63, % 48.2% Korean 11,521 12, % 9.1% Domestic brands consists of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, FCA (excluding FIAT), and Tesla. *Figures for June, 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

2 Page 2 MARKET TRACKER: QUARTERLY RESULTS State Market Increases in Second Quarter of 2015 % change versus year earlier 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% State U.S. QUARTERLY TREND Percent Change in State and U.S. New Vehicle Market 0.0% Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15* State 4.3% 4.1% 5.0% 5.7% U.S. 6.1% 6.6% 2.5% 3.9% * Figures for the Second Quarter of 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook based on data for April and May. New retail light vehicle registrations QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE Five Years of Second Quarter Results in State Market The market was up by more than 18,500 units in the Second Quarter of 2015 vs Q2 '11 Q2 '12 Q2 '13 Q2 '14 Q2 '15* Regs Second Quarter registrations during past five years * Figures for 2Q 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook based on data for April and May. MARKET TRACKER: STATE MARKET VERSUS U.S. State Market Has Larger Gain Percent change in registrations YTD '15 thru June* vs. YTD '14 Passenger car market share YTD '15 thru June* Domestic brand market share YTD '15 thru June* Top 10 brands and market share YTD '15 thru June* Maryland Market U.S. Market 5.4% 3.2% 48.8% 45.1% 32.7% 41.0% First Toyota 15.9% Toyota 13.2% Second Honda 11.8% Ford 12.5% Third Ford 10.9% Chevrolet 10.5% Fourth Chevrolet 7.9% Honda 9.4% Fifth Nissan 7.8% Nissan 7.7% Sixth Hyundai 6.0% Jeep 5.0% Seventh Jeep 4.8% Hyundai 4.2% Eighth Subaru 4.6% Subaru 4.0% Ninth Kia 3.1% Kia 3.8% Tenth Mazda 2.9% GMC 3.2% *June 2015 figures estimated by Auto Outlook Source: IHS Automotive Maryland Auto Outlook Covering Second Quarter 2015 Published for: Maryland Automobile Dealers Association 7 State Circle, Suite 301 Annapolis, MD Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA Phone: jfoltz@autooutlook.com Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz Reproduction, including photocopying of this publication in whole or in part, is prohibited without the express permission of Auto Outlook, Inc. Any material quoted must be attributed to, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the Maryland Automobile Dealers Association, and must also include the statement: Data Source: IHS Automotive. Unforeseen events may affect the forecast projections. Consequently, Auto Outlook is not responsible for management decisions based on the content of. Copyright Auto Outlook, Inc., July 2015

3 Covering Second Quarter 2015 Page 3 MARKET TRACKER: PRIMARY SEGMENTS Non-Luxury Trucks Gain Non-Luxury Truck Luxury Truck Luxury Car Non-Luxury Car Change in State Market Share YTD 2015 thru June* vs. YTD 2014 Car market share has declined so far this year Change in market share The graph above shows the change in year-to-date market share for four primary brand segments. *Figures for June, 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES State Hybrid/Electric Share is 2.8% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share (includes hybrid and electric vehicles) Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Trendline Alternative powertrain market share has trended lower over the past three years, and fell to 2.8% in the Second Quarter of Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15* The graph above shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the state. The line shows market share trend over the past 12 quarters. *Second Quarter 2015 includes April and May. MARKET TRACKER - SEGMENTS Compact SUV Segment Continues to Post Big Gains Change in Segment Market Share YTD 2015 thru May vs. YTD 2014 Maryland and U.S. Markets Compact SUV Pickup Mid Size SUV Luxury SUV Compact SUV market share was up sharply in both the state and U.S. markets so far this year. Mid Size and Large Cars had the largest decline. Typical models in segments: Small Car: Hyundai Elantra Mid Size & Large Car: Toyota Camry Luxury & Sports Car: BMW 3-Series Pickup: Ford F-Series Van: Honda Odyssey Compact SUV: Jeep Cherokee Mid Size SUV: Kia Sorento Full Size SUV: Chevrolet Tahoe Luxury SUV: Lexus RX Full Size SUV Van Luxury and Sports Car Small Car Mid Size and Large Car MD U.S Change in market share

4 Page 4 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART ONE Subaru Grabs Larger Share of State Car Market Chevrolet has biggest gain among light truck brands The two graphs below show the change in market share for the top 15 selling car and light truck brands during the first five months of 2015 versus the same period a year earlier. Change in Maryland Car Market Share - YTD 2015 thru May versus YTD 2014 (top 15 selling brands) Change in market share Subaru s share of the state car market increased by 1.2 share points so far this year. Chrysler and Hyundai also had relatively big gains Subaru Chrysler Hyundai Kia Mercedes BMW Nissan VW Mazda Lexus Ford Chevrolet Dodge Toyota Honda -1.2 Change in Maryland Light Truck Market Share - YTD 2015 thru May versus YTD 2014 (top 15 selling brands) Change in market share Chevrolet s light truck market share was up 0.7 points during the first five months of Chevrolet Kia Jeep Ford GMC Lexus Toyota Honda Mazda Nissan Ram Acura Subaru Dodge Hyundai

5 Covering Second Quarter 2015 Page 5 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART TWO Toyota and Honda Are Strong Performers in Maryland Hyundai, Mazda, Subaru, and Acura also rank high The graph below provides an indicator of brands that are popular in Maryland (relative to the National standard), and those that are not. Here s how it works: For the top 30 selling brands in the state, each brand s share of the U.S. market is multiplied by retail registrations in the state during the first half of this year. This yields a target for the state market. Target registrations are subtracted from actual registrations to derive the measurement of sales performance. Brands at the top of the graph (i.e., Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Mazda, Subaru, and Acura) are relatively strong sellers in the state, with actual registrations exceeding calculated targets by large margins. For instance, Toyota registrations exceeded the target by 2,814 units. Toyota Honda Hyundai Mazda Subaru Volkswagen Nissan Volvo Mercedes Land Rover Lexus Infiniti Porsche Mitsubishi Chrysler Dodge Lincoln Cadillac Buick Chevrolet Maryland Retail Market Performance based on registrations for YTD 2015 thru June* Actual registrations minus target (state industry registrations times U.S. market share) Acura MINI Jeep Tesla BMW Audi Kia Ram GMC Ford Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Mazda, Subaru, and Acura are strong sellers in the state, with actual registrations exceeding targets by large margins ,000-3,000-2,000-1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Actual registrations minus target (state industry registrations times U.S. market share) *Figures for June, 2015 were estimated. Source for registration data: IHS Automotive.

6 Page 6 MODEL RANKINGS Accord Holds Top Spot in Standard Mid Size Car Segment Jeep Grand Cherokee leads among Mid Size SUVs (2 rows) The table below shows the top five selling models during the first five months of 2015 in 16 primary market segments. In addition to unit registrations, it also shows each model s market share in its respective segment. Toyota Corolla was the best-selling Sub Compact Car, with a 17.1% share. Honda Civic was second, followed by Hyundai Elantra. Mustang was at the top of the Sporty Compact Segment, while BMW 5-Series was the best-seller among Luxury Cars and Sports Cars. Ford F-Series was the leader for Full-Size Pickups, while Honda CR-V (Compact SUV), Jeep Grand Cherokee (Mid Size SUV, 2 rows), and Toyota Highlander (Mid Size SUV, 3 rows) were also top-ranked in their segments. Lexus RX was the leader for Luxury SUVs. Top Selling Models in Each Segment - Maryland New Retail Registrations - YTD 2015 thru May Cars Entry Sub Compact Sporty Compact Standard Mid Size Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Honda Fit Toyota Corolla Ford Mustang Honda Accord Kia Soul Honda Civic Dodge Challenger Toyota Camry Nissan Versa Hyundai Elantra Chevrolet Camaro Hyundai Sonata Ford Fiesta Ford Focus Hyundai Veloster Nissan Altima Chevrolet Sonic Chevrolet Cruze Subaru BRZ Ford Fusion Large Mid Size Entry Luxury Near Luxury Luxury and Sports Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Toyota Avalon Mercedes CLA-Class Lexus ES BMW 5-Series Dodge Charger Acura ILX Mercedes C-Class Mercedes E-Class Chevrolet Impala Audi A Acura TLX/TL Chevrolet Corvette Nissan Maxima BMW 2-Series BMW 3-Series Audi A Chrysler Lexus Ct200H BMW 4-Series Tesla Model S Light Trucks Compact Pickup Full Size Pickup Van Compact SUV Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Toyota Tacoma Ford F Series Honda Odyssey Honda CR-V Chevrolet Colorado Chevrolet Silverado Toyota Sienna Toyota RAV Nissan Frontier /Xe Ram Ford Transit Connect Van Nissan Rogue GMC Canyon Toyota Tundra Dodge Caravan Jeep Wrangler GMC Sierra Nissan NV Ford Escape Mid Size SUV (2 rows) Mid Size SUV (3 rows) Full Size SUV Luxury SUV Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Jeep Grand Cherokee Toyota Highlander Chevrolet Tahoe Lexus RX Hyundai Santa Fe Spo Honda Pilot Chevrolet Suburban Acura MDX Toyota 4 Runner Ford Explorer Ford Expedition Acura RDX Ford Edge Kia Sorento GMC Yukon Lexus NX Nissan Murano Nissan Pathfinder GMC Yukon XL BMW X

7 Covering Second Quarter 2015 Page 7 COUNTY SCOREBOARD Five County Markets Are Up by More than 10% Montgomery County market increased 6.1% during the first five months of 2015 The table below and graph to the right provide a thorough summary of each of Maryland s 24 county new retail light vehicle markets. This county-level information provides a valuable perspective on local market performance. The table below shows new retail light vehicle registrations during the first five months of 2014 and 2015, as well as light truck market share in each county. The graph shows Domestic Brand market share. Note: top five shaded counties in each category of the table below are shaded yellow. Garrett Cecil Saint Marys Calvert Kent Caroline Somerset Allegany Charles Worcester Dorchester Harford Queen Annes Carroll Washington Talbot Frederick Wicomico Anne Arundel Prince Georges Baltimore Baltimore Ind Howard Montgomery Domestic Brand Market Share (%): YTD 2015 thru May 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% COUNTY MARKET REVIEW Year to date thru May Percent Change Unit Change Light Truck Market Share (%) YTD 2014 YTD to to 2015 YTD 2014 YTD 2015 Change Allegany % Anne Arundel 10,993 11, % Baltimore 15,412 16, % Baltimore Ind 5,805 5, % Calvert 1,862 2, % Caroline % Carroll 3,305 3, % Cecil 1,790 1, % Charles 2,942 3, % Dorchester % Frederick 4,930 4, % Garrett % Harford 5,376 5, % Howard 6,447 6, % Kent % Montgomery 19,216 20, % 1, Prince Georges 12,107 13, % 1, Queen Annes % Saint Marys 2,180 2, % Somerset % Talbot % Washington 2,457 2, % Wicomico 1,356 1, % Worcester %

8 Page 8 Brand Registrations Report Maryland New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations Second Quarter* Year-to-date thru June Registrations Market Share (%) Registrations Market Share (%) 2Q Q 2015 % change 2Q Q 2015 Change YTD '14 YTD '15 % change YTD '14 YTD '15 Change TOTAL 69,218 73, , , Cars 36,949 35, ,670 64, Light Trucks 32,269 37, ,892 67, Domestic Brands 22,083 23, ,133 43, European Brands 7,067 7, ,694 13, Japanese Brands 33,556 35, ,214 63, Korean Brands 6,512 6, ,521 12, Acura 1,094 1, ,147 2, Audi ,373 1, BMW 1,466 1, ,683 2, Buick ,067 1, Cadillac Chevrolet 5,455 5, ,845 10, Chrysler ,260 1, Dodge 2,116 1, ,770 3, FIAT Ford 7,494 7, ,484 14, GMC 1,052 1, ,939 2, Honda 8,897 8, ,661 15, Hyundai 4,446 4, ,879 7, Infiniti Jaguar Jeep 2,912 3, ,354 6, Kia 2,066 2, ,642 4, Land Rover Lexus 1,399 1, ,686 2, Lincoln Mazda 2,005 2, ,671 3, Mercedes 1,495 1, ,734 3, MINI Mitsubishi Nissan 5,213 5, ,751 10, Other Porsche Ram 1,120 1, ,081 2, Subaru 2,826 3, ,257 6, Tesla Toyota 11,305 11, ,437 20, Volkswagen 1,753 1, ,202 3, Volvo *June 2015 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: IHS Automotive The table above shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in Maryland. Figures are shown for the Second Quarters of 2014 and 2015, and ytd totals for 2014 and The top ten ranked brands in each category are shaded yellow.

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