Emerging Technologies and Processes to Spur Lower Carbon Trucks and Goods Movement

Transcription

1 Emerging Technologies and Processes to Spur Lower Carbon Trucks and Goods Movement Clean Transportation Technologies and Solutions SM Bill Van Amburg Senior Vice President Future of Trucking Symposium Winnipeg, Manitoba February 18, 2010

2 Agenda CALSTART Background Drivers of Change in Trucking Status of Advanced Technology for Trucks HTUF Process Commercializing Hybrids and High Efficiency Trucks Implications for Speeding Future Low Carbon Truck Pathways Copyright CALSTART

3 CALSTART CALSTART is a unique non-profit, membersupported clean transportation organization. Based in California; projects in North America; members internationally. Founded: 1992 as a public-private partnership to launch and grow a clean transportation industry. Mission: via programs and services, supporting and expanding the growth of a clean transportation technologies industry that will: Create high-quality jobs; Clean the air; Reduce dependence on foreign oil; and Reduce global warming emissions Copyright CALSTART

4 CALSTART Has Broad Industry/Public Sector Support (partial list) Copyright CALSTART

5 CALSTART: A Strategic Broker for Advanced Transportation Worldwide Member and Participant Network National and International in Project Areas 3 Offices in US Four focus areas: Tech Commercialization Fleet, Port Consulting Industry Services Policy Development Copyright CALSTART

6 Integrated Solutions We must find solutions that address all three competing needs Energy Security Air Quality Integrated Solutions Needed There is no one Silver Bullet solution Climate Change Copyright CALSTART

7 Trends & Drivers of Change ENERGY SECURITY: FUEL SUPPLY AND COSTS Traditional fuel supplies/refining capacity barely meeting current demand The need for biofuels is increasing but so are questions about their impacts/benefits RFS2 rules at federal level Biofuels grow as fuel blends; 2nd gen biofuels emerging Rise of non-traditional hydrocarbons possible but have serious impacts Regional fuel variation and choice becoming more prevalent Alternatives becoming economically competitive with petroleum but have own costs GLOBAL WARMING Push to reduce GHGs intensifying and pushing fuel economy focus and urgency increasing EPA now says GHG is a health danger can regulate under clean air act California CO2 tailpipe rules approved by new EPA CAFÉ revised to match CA CO2 rules: CAFÉ for med & heavy trucks being developed States/communities remain GHG leaders Calif AB 32 increases momentum Energy efficiency reduces GHG impact; Fuel switching and blending reduces GHG impact; Modal split (transit and rail) has long term role EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS World population increasingly urban and world emission standards increasingly move to CA/Euro standards EU and US may align in timeline Fine particulates (nano particles) will be of increasing concern from combustion Diesel fuel still challenged in dirtiest regions (ports, Southern California) Copyright CALSTART

8 New IBM Truck Study Sees Challenges, Opportunities, Need for Rapid Change IBM Vice President, Global Automotive Sanjay Rishi presents Truck 2020 findings Unveiled its Truck 2020: Transcending Turbulence report at HTUF 2009 Signaled transition of truck industry to high-tech industry Need to invest now in new technology (hybridization, telematics); form partnerships and new supply chain; add new skills to work force, leadership Copyright CALSTART

9 Truck World is Changing Significant improvement in emissions via 2010 rules but big increase in cost Has engaged bulk of truck maker engineering talent Fuel economy on back burner in this period Large new push to improve fuel efficiency because of fuel price shocks (but without increasing emissions) Truck fuel economy standards coming in US by 2016 Carbon (global warming) emissions of rising importance because of large fuel use in trucks One efficient truck can cut 24X more fuel than a car US EPA close to issuing carbon tailpipe limits for trucks Ports and key regions (example: California) driving force for rapidly upgrading trucks (on emissions but not efficiency!) Has led to a blossoming of new lower-emitting, higher-efficiency technology and fuels some entering early production NOW Copyright CALSTART

10 TUF 2009 HTUF 2009: EXPANSION OF ADVANCED TRUCKS

11 Hybrid Vehicles A First Step A hybrid uses more than one source of stored energy to drive and do work Can add significant efficiency to vehicle performance Very good in driving cycles with stop and go, delivery, high idling times Several hybrid versions hybrid electric (batteries) hybrid hydraulic (hydraulic pressure accumulators) Plug-in hybrids have larger batteries, can partially recharge off electric grid Copyright CALSTART

12 Benefits of Hybrid Truck Technology to U.S. and Canada Hybridization provides significant immediate benefits ENERGY SECURITY: Reduced fuel consumption (30-50%) EMISSIONS/CLIMATE: Reduced criteria (NOx) and GHG emissions (10-60%) One of few strategies to improve on 2010 emissions reductions ECONOMY: North American leadership in technology, manufacturing Reductions come just from hybrid system, no additional after-treatment CO2 reductions closely tracked fuel reduction percentages Fuel consumption reduction from HTUF field testing data Emissions/fuel reduction from HTUF dyno testing data performed at SwRI Copyright CALSTART

13 TOOLS: Industry Transformation: Hybrid Trucks Now Entering Market 10 years behind cars but industry is real, momentum growing 8 years ago there were no hybrid trucks before CALSTART s HTUF process Development Pre-Production Production Intent Test prototypes and systems Field pilot assessments (10-50 vehicles) Assembly line builds up to 100+ Early Production Initial commercial volumes still high incremental cost R&D Support Purchase Incentives Pre-Production Deployment Support (HTUF) Copyright CALSTART

14 Regional Heavy and Line Haul Advanced Trucks Kenworth, Peterbilt, Navistar and Freightliner all have Class 8 regional haul hybrid tractors All developing next generation advanced Class 8 including electric and hybrid configurations Mack showcased advanced hybrid line haul Class 8 (full 80,000 lb GVWR); next stages add more electrification; Peterbilt has several in demonstration Copyright CALSTART

15 Hybrid Tractors Emerging for Regional Heavy Applications Kenworth unveils Class 7/8 hybrid tractor: 54,500 lbs GCVW Peterbilt has similar model also continuing to test larger Class 8 heavy-duty OTR tractor Navistar unveils Class 7/8 hybrid tractor targeting beverage trailer applications Freightliner announces will pilot build a hybrid tractor Dec 08 Above: Kenworth Class 8 tractor; Below: Navistar Class 7/8 tractor Left: Freightliner Class 7/8 tractor pilot; right, Peterbilt Class 7/8 tractor Copyright CALSTART

16 Wal-Mart Class 8 Demo ArvinMeritor Navistar deliver unique dual-mode hybrid design for testing Electric drive at lower speeds (up to 48 mph), blended mode at higher speeds Can greatly reduce fuel use, cut idle and give zero emission at ports, urban driving Wal-Mart testing this truck and several Peterbilt-Eaton trucks in linehaul and regional heavy haul applications Wal-Mart committed to doubling its fleet fuel efficiency by 2015 Copyright CALSTART

17 Hydraulic Hybrids Coming of Age Several preproduction and near production models shown: Eaton, Bosch Rexroth, Parker Parallel and Series architecture FCCC Parker series parcel strip chassis showed impressive integration, potential fuel savings Copyright CALSTART

18 All Electric Drive Trucks Emerging Oshkosh HEMMT military heavy transport and support truck Series hybrid electric drive system with ultracap energy buffer Capacity PHETT Plug-in, series hybrid design Balqon all-electric port trucks Up to miles range Freightliner Custom Chassis and Enova electric parcel truck (in testing) Smith Newton electric truck (in early production) Navistar/Modec electric truck (in early production Q1 2010) Copyright CALSTART

19 Hybrid Medium Duty Trucks Expand to Both New & Heavier Applications Navistar extends weight class from 23,500 to 37,000 lbs (into Class 8 range) 6 engine horsepower/ torque combinations Showcases hybrids for treetrimming, wrecker, dump, crane and beverage Peterbilt adds dump truck variant to cargo and utility body Freightliner shows M2 delivery and beverage bodies, new bus and RV platforms Posi Plus shows tandem axle utility truck to 40,000 lbs Copyright CALSTART

20 Plug in Hybrid Trucks Emerge: Several Utility Industry Variants Dueco-Odyne plugin material handler (above), digger-derrick (middle), compressor truck (bottom). Eaton PHEV utility trucks Plug-in port Commercial work trucks show potential for PHEV functionality before cars Extra energy storage boosts idle reduction/work site engine-off ops Diesel fuel costs cause rapid review of potential business case Energy Storage costs still high Dueco-Odyne first into market Plug-in hybrid utility bucket trucks PHEV digger-derrick version 6/08, a higher power-demand work truck Trucks carry 35 kwh of energy storage (lead-acid, 3000 pounds) for long work site ops PHEV underground compressor truck Eaton has two prototypes Class 6/7 variant based on production truck, system Class 5 Superduty prototype with EPRI Copyright CALSTART

21 Expanding Choice of Natural Gas Engines, Trucks CARB/EPA certified Westport s High Pressure Direct Injection (HPDI) NG technology for Cummins heavy-duty engine Kenworth expands to LNG vehicles with T800 LBG trucks Freightliner producing CNG version of its Business Class M2 Mack brings natural gas refuse truck back to market Copyright CALSTART

22 Renewable Natural Gas Lowest Carbon Fuel Trucks driving on natural gas produced from dairy manure operating in San Joaquin Valley Process produces and refines manure biogas to biomethane essentially renewable (green) natural gas Very low in overall carbon emissions Natural gas-hybrids becoming possible Dairy partners Hilarides Dairy, Hilmar Cheese Copyright CALSTART

23 Adjusted Carbon Intensity Values for Diesel & Substitutes Carbon intensity values are measured in grams CO2e/MJ 10 pathways completed Fuel Pathway Direct ILUC EER Total Diesel (1 pathway: average ULSD) Compressed Natural Gas (CA and N. American, compressed in CA) Compressed Natural Gas (landfill gas, or biomethane) Electricity (2 pathways CA average and renewable mix) Hydrogen (4 pathways liquid & compressed, various feedstocks) Copyright CALSTART

24 Hybrid Truck Users Forum (HTUF) User-driven process to commercialize medium- and heavy-duty hybrid trucks Joint CALSTART-U.S. Army program (RDECOM-TARDEC-NAC) Also supported by Hewlett Foundation, support from DOE, DOT HTUF focuses on commercializing hybrid trucks with dual-use benefits Speed commercialization and reduce overall costs by creating common fleet requirements, joint purchase commitments, increasing volumes All Major Truck Makers and System Suppliers involved (partial list) Copyright CALSTART

25 Industry Status HTUF Activities HTUF Actions Lead Hybrid Industry Progress No major truck makers involved in commercial hybrids OEMs skeptical Military hybrid demos: HMMWV and FMTV First HTUF Working Group launches (utility) First HTUF Forums: Allison hosts 1; Enova/EVS 2 Chattanooga Forum 2 Indianapolis Forum Hybrid transit buses grow in market FedEx hybrids testing Parcel & beverage working groups launch Utility WG agrees to common KPPs SwRI and Stewart & Stevenson host HTUF Forum 3 San Antonio Forum 3 OEM interest growing first FedEx trucks delivered Utility WG issues and awards 24 hybrid truck RFP Utility hybrid validation truck delivered Eaton and International host HTUF Forum 4 Kalamazoo Forum 4 Hydraulic hybrid development expands FTTS underway EPA test protocol started Validation testing of utility hybrid shows significant fuel savings Refuse, bus working groups launch Dana hosts HTUF Forum 5 Toledo Forum 5 Peterbilt and Freightliner unveil preproduction hybrids First Class 8 hybrid data Oshkosh prototype refuse truck 24 utility hybrids deployed with fleets Positive results leads to orders for 100 more ISE & Siemens host HTUF Forum 6 all truck makers attend San Diego Forum 6 First plug in utility truck utility hybrids in delivery International begins commercial production Refuse & parcel groups select suppliers pre-production Class 8 and incentives working groups Paccar (Kenworth/ Peterbilt) host HTUF Forum 7 Seattle Forum 7 Peterbilt, Kenworth, Freightliner and Azure enter lowvolume commercial hybrid production 6 working groups active Construction Equip Forum launches Bosch Rexroth hosts HTUF Forum 8 So. Bend Forum 8 1,500+ coml. hybrid trucks ordered or delivered all truck makers active Calif. approves hybrid incentives Hybrid on Hill event Refuse WG testing HEV and HHV Bus WG selects supplier Southern Company (user) hosts HTUF Forum 9 Atlanta Forum /120 attendee 172 attendees 250 attendees 275 attendees 330 attendees 430 attendees 550 attendees 550 attendees 3/5 hybrid ride & drive 7 hybrid ride & drive 14 hybrid ride & drive 13 hybrid ride & drive 14 hybrid ride & drive 19 hybrid ride & drive 36 hybrid ride & drive 30 vehicles

26 HTUF Working Groups Today 6 Core Working Groups of fleet truck users now operating, plus: 1 new Forum: Construction equip 1 Task Force: Plug-in HE Trucks (PHET) Main Working Groups: Utility/Telco trucks George Survant, Florida Power & Light, user lead Parcel Delivery trucks Jerry Swart, FedEx Ground; Robert Hall, UPS user leads Refuse Truck Working Group Matt Stewart, City of Chicago Sanitation, user lead Bus Working Group Tony Bryant, Tri-Met, user lead (launched with support of Federal Transit Administration) Class 8 Working Group active Incentives Working Group active exploring industry funding to support Copyright CALSTART

27 HTUF Forums & WGs: A Market Development & Transformation Process HTUF Forums are North America s primary hybrid and high efficiency truck industry meetings The HTUF process has sped market introduction by 2-5 years (5 years according to fleets) The Forums uniquely bring together the full range of key stakeholders in one place: fleet vehicle users (commercial and military) vehicle manufacturers suppliers and technology developers regulators researchers NGOs The Forums provide the clearest window on industry status and reality; technology developments; field-test data and real-world performance evaluations; hands-on experience via ride-and-drives; and developing the action agenda for the industry. Copyright CALSTART

28 Hybrid Trucks: at Tipping Point but Need Help to Speed Early Market Hybrid truck production volumes are still too low in early market to realize price reductions Current payback period too long even with big fuel/maintenance savings However: modest volumes can move prices to within business cases needs: Need 3,000-5,000 unit sales/year Incentives can provide big kick-start to this number by helping drive volume up in targeted effort Federal, state level Need correct incentives to bridge gap between today s price and prices at higher volumes Federal tax credits well-intentioned but not best tool for commercial fleets: too low, doesn t help most fleets Hybrids moving from development to production Copyright CALSTART

29 Incentives to Move the Market Copyright CALSTART

30 Hybrid Truck & Bus Voucher Incentive Program (HVIP) Program recommended by CALSTART and HTUF based on what needed to change purchase decision for fleet, speed market CARB staff crafted extremely simple program incentives target half the incremental cost of today s hybrids $19.4M invested for year 1 CALSTART managing TO DATE: more than $8.6M in vouchers requested for roughly 300 hybrid trucks and buses (just two weeks of operation!) Bulk of vehicles to date Class 8a hybrid tractors! Copyright CALSTART

31 Proposed Hybrid Truck Tax Credits Levin Bill (HR 3367) Vehicle Weight Extends Credit for Five Years and Doubles Credit Amounts Demonstrated Fuel Economy Gain Max Credit for a Fuel Efficiency Increase of: 20% 30% 40% 50% 8,500-14,000 lb n/a $3,000 $4,500 $6,000 14,001-26,000 lb n/a $6,000 $9,000 $12,000 26,000-33,000 lb n/a $12,000 $18,000 $24,000 >33,000 lb $10,000 $20,000 $24,000 $24,000 *Maximum allowable qualified incremental cost [Sec. 30B(d)(2)(B)(iii) as modified]: 8,501 14,000 lb $15,000 14,001 26,000 lb $30,000 26,001 33,000 lb $60,000 33,001 lb and above $100,000 *Credit amounts allowed for efficiency increases [Sec. 30B(d)(2)(B)(ii) as modified]: A 20% fuel economy increase can apply for 10% of qualified incremental cost (>33K lb only) A 30% fuel economy increase can apply for 20% of qualified incremental cost A 40% fuel economy increase can apply for 30% of qualified incremental cost A 50% fuel economy increase can apply for 40% of qualified incremental cost Copyright CALSTART

32 Military Benefits Commercial Vehicles Deployment, Testing & Production Ramp-up Where Do We Go Next? Hybrids & High Efficiency Trucks First Commercial Volumes Technology Enhancement Testing Evaluation Validation Early Production: 500+ Truck Deploy Launches Commercial Phase Increased Truck Volume Class 8 Hybrid Segment Increased Truck Volume Refuse Hybrid Segment Increased Truck Volume Shuttle Hybrid Segment Increased Truck Volume Delivery Hybrid Segments Increased Truck Volume Industrial Hybrid Segment Increased Truck Volume Utility 5-7 Hybrid Segment Coml. Industry capabilities support Mil Needs Coml. Field Data Support FTTS/TWV Hybrid Decisions Grow Experience, Volumes for Non-Tactical Base Hybrids Outcomes: 4+ hybrid system suppliers each at min system/year volumes 6 truck/ chassis OEMs active Industry volume 20k hybrids/year 40-50% fuel use reductions per vehicle Increased capabilities of silent watch, power gen CALSTART launching CalHEAT to address Capabilities Enhancement

33 California Hybrid, Efficient and Advanced Truck (CalHEAT) Research Center CalHEAT Goals Help drive medium- and heavy-duty technology products to market that meet and exceed California climate and petroleum reduction goals Assist the nation meet needs for more efficient, reduced carbon medium and heavy-duty transport Help create economic activity in California through focused technology development and market initiatives Help improve the efficiency and reduce the impacts of goods movement in Southern California, and by extension California and North America Copyright CALSTART

34 Future Pressures: I-710 Zero- Emission Freight Corridor Example From: California Marine and Intermodal Transportation System Advisory Council (CALMITSAC) Major corridor serving LA/Long Beach ports being expanded developing freight-only lanes Community concerned about increasing emissions, health impacts desire no emissions increase CALSTART and LA Co. Metropolitan Transportation Authority (Metro) exploring needs, process to develop zeroemission corridor over next 10 years Copyright CALSTART

35 TOOLS: What is Needed to Speed Market Transformation for Advanced HDVs? CalHEAT Research Center (PIER) -Research to develop next generation trucks; pipeline for future AB 118 projects HTUF Program w/ Army-NAC -National/state level actions commercializing hybrid and advanced trucks CARB HVIP -$20M Research & Development Tech Develop & Demonstrate Working Group Assessments (pre-production) Early Production Deployments (buy downs) Commercialization Continuum the Steps to Commercialization Development Pre-Production Production Intent Test prototypes and systems Field pilot assessments (10-50 vehicles) Assembly line builds up to 100+ Early Production Initial commercial volumes still high incremental cost R&D Support Purchase Incentives Pre-Production Deployment Support Copyright CALSTART

36 What s Needed to Transition Trucks? Multi-year, coordinated plan; aligned investments, requirements, incentives and policies Need coordinated approach for commercialization Support R&D consistently Deploy, assess and validate pre-production vehicles and share info Incentivize the business case in the early years Market pull critical Focus on leading-edge User Needs build support to pull product through Copyright CALSTART

37 Meet us in St Louis! March 9-10, 2010 CALSTART-NTEA joint clean vehicle and fuels event for 2010 ATTEND! Green Truck Summit is part of the larger Work Truck Show the largest commercial truck show in North America 8,000 attendees in 2009 LEARN! 2-day Conference targets top emission, carbon and efficiency issues affecting trucks sessions on all major fuels and technologies; policies; trends. PROFILE! Showcase your clean leadership display in the CALSTART Clean tech and Fuels Pavilion; sponsor the Pavilion and Conference. REGISTER! QUESTIONS? Contact Susan Romeo at: 626/ Copyright CALSTART

38 10 Detroit, MI Copyright CALSTART

39 Clean Transportation Technologies and Solutions SM For info contact: Bill Van Amburg (626)