HD Truck Fuel Economy Task Group Key Issues for Phase 2 of EPA/NHTSA Rule Bill Van Amburg, CALSTART Leadership Circle Auburn Hills, MI June 5, 2013

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1 HD Truck Fuel Economy Task Group Key Issues for Phase 2 of EPA/NHTSA Rule Bill Van Amburg, CALSTART Leadership Circle Auburn Hills, MI June 5, 2013

2 HD Truck Fuel Economy Task Group Goals:» In advance of rule development, discuss key issues for industry and users» Make sure beneficial fuel saving technology included in rule design» Seek areas of agreement; identify key areas of concern» Work collaboratively to develop recommendations» Provide feedback to regulators 2

3 HDV FE Phase 2 Aims at Vocational» Slow ramp up of rule left a lot of achievable reductions off the table, especially in vocational trucks» Unintended outcome of possibly slowing deployment of more advanced technology» Second phase of rule will be aimed at vocational vehicles

4 Phase 1 Rule Flexibility Helps But May Not be Needed by OEMs» Rule so far being easily met, many OEs precertifying vehicles» May not need credits until perhaps 2017

5 Phase 2 Commitments in Phase 1 Rule» Focus on energy security and environmental goals» Preserve industry s ability to meet market needs with a diverse range of vehicles» Continue our collaborative outreach with stakeholders» Set more stringent standards based on forcing advanced technologies such as waste heat recovery, hybrids, EVs» Consider a range of test procedure and protocol approaches:» Chassis dynamometer testing for certification or model validation?» Is there a need to continue using separate engine standards?» Do we make our vehicle simulation compliance tool more sophisticated?» Consider bringing forward the WP.29 Global Technical Regulation, including a new World Harmonized Duty Cycle» Consider expanding credit trading across the heavy-duty sector DRAFT & DELIBERATIVE 5

6 Potential Approach for Phase 2» Build on successes of Phase 1» Maintain single national program regulatory structure» Continue stakeholder outreach, EPA focus on GHGs» Recognize that this is a highly technical rule» Phase 1 got existing technologies off the shelf and on to new vehicles» Phase 2 should consider forcing new and advanced cost-effective technologies» Identify the new technologies that should be fully recognized» Waste-heat recovery, hybrids, full electric vehicles, advanced transmissions, intelligent vehicle controls, and heat rejection management, others?» Refine our test procedures and vehicle simulation model for certification» To equitably recognize these new technologies; as integrated into a complete vehicle» Conduct baseline and advanced technology testing» To validate test procedures and model refinements» To assess emissions reductions» Assess technology costs and benefits» Consider options for stringencies and timing, including phase-ins» Consider updating flexibilities» To ensure a smooth transition to Phase 2, promote innovation, and achieve lowest costs DRAFT & DELIBERATIVE 6

7 Some Emerging Questions for Phase 2» We are in the very early stages of assessing these» This is NOT a comprehensive list:» Should we continue with separate engine standards in Phase 2?» Should trailers be included in Phase 2 in some way?» Should we create more vocational vehicle categories and duty cycles?» Should we consider vehicle labeling or other consumer information approaches?» Should we consider incentives for alternative fuels/cng? DRAFT & DELIBERATIVE 7

8 Fuel Economy Improvement (Avg.) 5% 10% 15% Are There Opportunities to Greatly Improve Fuel Economy Beyond Phase 1?» 84% say room for big improvement» 69% want more stringent fuel economy regs Greatest Opportunities» Class 2b: 40% say you could get 20% or more FE gain» Vocational: more than half think you can get at least 15% improvement» Many called out advanced hybrid / electrification as an opportunity 8

9 Less Important More Important Key Issues for Phase 2 Rule: Duty Cycles, Testing Protocols, Full Vehicle Testing are Top Issues 9

10 Duty Cycles Matter for Measuring and Testing Truck Efficiency!» 46% of respondents said duty cycles are critical/must have» 87% said they were very important or critical/must have» 89% say tech would benefit from representative duty cycle Most respondents say need more duty cycles though recognize difficulties» 2/3 liked 5 duty cycle straw man» Some wanted fewer maybe 3 representative duty cycles» Many said no two fleets are the same and too difficult / costly to try to pigeonhole fleets

11 Consensus Points in Task Group Activities to Date» Support Limited Vocational truck segmentation based on how vehicles broadly used (CalHEAT example)» Support compiling and recommending limited number (3-6) of Duty Cycles that are sufficient to cover the basic applications while allowing new technology to demonstrate its worth» Believe there are some duty cycles so custom they must be included Possibly extreme cycles, such as refuse variations

12 Consensus to Date» 3-4 Vocational segments based on CalHEAT findings are acceptable and outline way trucks generally used» Duty cycles are critical to successful Phase 2» However: want to recommend fewest number of meaningful cycles that bound how a truck generally used (cannot specifically match how EVERY truck is specifically used) 80% solution» Accepted by industry and fleets as adequate

13 6 Truck Categories Based on How Trucks Operate Class 7/8 Tractors Over the Road Short Haul/ Regional Younger Trucks; High Annual VMT Mostly higher average speed, highway driving Between cities; Drayage; Day Cabs Includes second use trucks; trucks w/ smaller engines Class 3-8 Vocational Work Trucks Urban Cargo, freight, delivery, collection Lower VMT; Lower Average speed; Stop-start 13 Class 2B/3 Rural/ Intracity Work site support Pickups/ Vans Cargo, freight, delivery, collection Higher VMT; Higher Avg speed; Both urban/ highway Utility trucks, construction, etc. Lots of idle time; Lots of PTO use Commercial use; Automotive OEMs & volumes

14 Roadmap Report» Final draft will be presented at June 25 CEC Workshop» Available for reference» Additional indepth briefings can be set

15 Task Group: Possible Approach for Certification» Combine limited set of appropriate duty cycles into ONE test cycle perform only one test (or simulation)» OEM would use for certification just the results on the duty cycle of intended use» Other data could be used to inform fleets/users what to expect if used in different cycles

16 Key Issues» Compile and recommend 3-6 specific Duty Cycles that are sufficient to cover the basic applications while allowing new technology to demonstrate its worth» Tech such as transmissions, aero, light weighting, hybrid, thermal recovery, work site idling» Are there some duty cycles so custom they must be included?

17 Existing Duty Cycles!» Many cycles for trucks and buses» None are perfect but are there a few that bound the way most trucks are used? 17

18 Possible Consolidation» Highway line haul ARB HHDDT; NESCAUM» Regional haul modified ARB HHDDT; HTUF Class 8b Regional» Intermodal Class 8 Drayage Truck Univ. of Texas/Port of Houston; TIAX/POLA/POLB» Pick Up and Delivery HTUF Class 4 and HTUF Class 6 Parcel Delivery; CILCC» Beverage - CILCC variant?» Neighborhood Refuse Truck NREL/Ohio State University/Oshkosh» Utility Service Truck CILCC with work-site operation» Refrigeration - Handled within the Utility segment due to combination of driving cycle and work-site cycle» Shuttle Bus (Airport, Rental, Municipal) truck cycle or bus cycle?» Transit Bus Manhattan; Orange County: CBD 18

19 Task Group - Current Discussion: Possible Duty Cycles (not final)» Urban/suburban driving» CILCC; Pick-up and Delivery (PDDS); transit cycles» Issues: # stops; extreme cycles (aggregate refuse cycle)» Intracity/Rural driving» CILCC with high speed component?; regional class 8 variant; UDDS» Work site support cycles» CILCC for driving; utility work cycle or variant for idle component

20 Discussion Notes 1/24» Refuse needs to be included somehow as it is an unusual application. May need to look at one cycle with stops, and another with and another with up to 1500 for extreme circumstances.» Also for refuse, need to look at ways to capture compaction cycle or auxiliary load, or you are doing a disservice to these vocations. For hydraulic hybrids, length of stops could be a factor as well.» Auxiliary load needs to be included in test and maybe duty cycles should have definitions of whether auxiliaries are on or off for the cycle.» QUESTION Which auxiliaries need to be captured?

21 Summary» A wide range of advanced, highefficiency truck technology can be moved to cost-payback market entry points by 2020» Such outcomes will require strong and consistent development, validation and early market support programs» To drive full value from the suite of available technologies requires a more nuanced but still limited and discrete testing and certification process for Phase 2

22 CALSTART Clean Transportation Technologies and Solutions